COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Del Tachi]

A close friend of mine, 50 and otherwise healthy, just took a second turn for the worse after it seemed like she was getting better.

If the unthinkable happens, I don't know what I'm going to do with the amount of rage in my system. Suddenly, it's personal. If you watch Fox News, you are no longer my friend. I am cutting you off.

There will be a ton of people cut out of my life.

Sounds like a very destructive way to cope.

*hugs

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways, at this rate, we should just have a strict national lockdown. Three weeks, no exceptions, and no interstate travel when possible.
Masks should also be mandatory and result in fines at the very least if not worn.
We are in the same situation we were in March, can we please not screw up this time like I warned about?
This is the only way to save our economy at this point.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Remember when people such as Del Tachi and Dead0 were trying to convince Arlas that death rates wouldn’t go back up despite the surge in cases?

Gloating is ungentlemanly.

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when people such as Del Tachi and Dead0 were trying to convince Arlas that death rates wouldn’t go back up despite the surge in cases?

Gloating is ungentlemanly.

Who said I was a gentleman?
I sure didn’t.

[Del Tachi]

Anyways, at this rate, we should just have a strict national lockdown. Three weeks, no exceptions, and no interstate travel when possible.
Masks should also be mandatory and result in fines at the very least if not worn.
We are in the same situation we were in March, can we please not screw up this time like I warned about?
This is the only way to save our economy at this point.

Nope.  Locking down carries significant risks to overall population health and threatens to increase inequities across the country.  Aiming to prevent or contain every case of COVID-19 is simply no longer sustainable.  Keeping workplaces/schools closed, restricting travel, or other proposed mitigation strategies you suggest would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations by creating life-long consequences in terms of education, skills development, income and overall health. 

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways, at this rate, we should just have a strict national lockdown. Three weeks, no exceptions, and no interstate travel when possible.
Masks should also be mandatory and result in fines at the very least if not worn.
We are in the same situation we were in March, can we please not screw up this time like I warned about?
This is the only way to save our economy at this point.

Nope.  Locking down carries significant risks to overall population health and threatens to increase inequities across the country.  Aiming to prevent or contain every case of COVID-19 is simply no longer sustainable.  Keeping workplaces/schools closed, restricting travel, or other proposed mitigation strategies you suggest would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations by creating life-long consequences in terms of education, skills development, income and overall health.  

And you think killing their family members, giving them long term organ damage, and playing whack-a-mole with the virus (which has and will hurt our economy more) is suddenly going to make our lives better?
Of course there are consequences, but like everything in politics, you have to weigh out the options. It’s astounding how you don’t think Covid-19 isn’t hurting vulnerable communities as we speak.

The lockdown reduces the infection spread, it’s not permanent. It’s three weeks but it must be enforced. We should use that time to develop better contact tracing techniques and possibly a Deliberate Infection Program for those who think like you do and want to go back to normal.

[Koharu]

https://twitter.com/madison_365/status/1281261896033861639?s=20

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A close friend of mine, 50 and otherwise healthy, just took a second turn for the worse after it seemed like she was getting better.

If the unthinkable happens, I don't know what I'm going to do with the amount of rage in my system. Suddenly, it's personal. If you watch Fox News, you are no longer my friend. I am cutting you off.

There will be a ton of people cut out of my life.

Sounds like a very destructive way to cope.

*hugs

I appreciate the hugs, but what do you expect me to do when you have Tucker Carlson telling his viewers that masks and social distancing don't work, when every single doctor and public health expert says THEY F***ING DO?

Fox News costs lives. I'm done with anyone who thinks it's a valid news and information source.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Anyways, at this rate, we should just have a strict national lockdown. Three weeks, no exceptions, and no interstate travel when possible.
Masks should also be mandatory and result in fines at the very least if not worn.
We are in the same situation we were in March, can we please not screw up this time like I warned about?
This is the only way to save our economy at this point.

If you have a national lockdown, infections will just rise again a month later.  Maybe this will reduce deaths because we’ll have better treatment in a month.  And it might be beneficial to implement lockdowns in some specific hot spots where the health care system is in danger of collapse.  But this strategy is not going to reduce total infections in the long run.

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways, at this rate, we should just have a strict national lockdown. Three weeks, no exceptions, and no interstate travel when possible.
Masks should also be mandatory and result in fines at the very least if not worn.
We are in the same situation we were in March, can we please not screw up this time like I warned about?
This is the only way to save our economy at this point.

If you have a national lockdown, infections will just rise again a month later.  Maybe this will reduce deaths because we’ll have better treatment in a month.  And it might be beneficial to implement lockdowns in some specific hot spots where the health care system is in danger of collapse.  But this strategy is not going to reduce total infections in the long run.

Agreed, if you have a lockdown and don’t plan for afterwards, you aren’t really helping your cause.

I want a repeat, but this time, a coordinated lockdown that is followed across the country, and with actual planning for what to do afterwards instead of hoping things will be better.

The lockdown reduces numbers in the short term, meaning we actually can get back down to a level where contact tracing and masks work best.

Also we could look into an deliberate infection program if cases are down. (Without having time resort to my original plan for such a program)

[Del Tachi]

Anyways, at this rate, we should just have a strict national lockdown. Three weeks, no exceptions, and no interstate travel when possible.
Masks should also be mandatory and result in fines at the very least if not worn.
We are in the same situation we were in March, can we please not screw up this time like I warned about?
This is the only way to save our economy at this point.

Nope.  Locking down carries significant risks to overall population health and threatens to increase inequities across the country.  Aiming to prevent or contain every case of COVID-19 is simply no longer sustainable.  Keeping workplaces/schools closed, restricting travel, or other proposed mitigation strategies you suggest would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations by creating life-long consequences in terms of education, skills development, income and overall health. 

And you think killing their family members, giving them long term organ damage, and playing whack-a-mole with the virus (which has and will hurt our economy more) is suddenly going to make our lives better?

Yes, because your assessment of the virus' risks is greatly exaggerated.

Of course there are consequences, but like everything in politics, you have to weigh out the options. It’s astounding how you don’t think Covid-19 isn’t hurting vulnerable communities as we speak.

Yes, I've been big proponent of appropriately comparing benefits and costs instead of blindly subscribing to mass panic since the very beginning of this crisis.  Keeping schools closed is an obvious example of a costly overreaction based on what we know about the virus, how critical physical schooling is for many kids/family, and the very good real world evidence from European countries who already opened their schools back up.  The harm to vulnerable communities from lockdowns is worse than it is from the virus.

The lockdown reduces the infection spread, it’s not permanent. It’s three weeks but it must be enforced. We should use that time to develop better contact tracing techniques and possibly a Deliberate Infection Program for those who think like you do and want to go back to normal.

We've already expanded testing astronomically while surging healthcare capacity and improving treatment over the past 4 months.  The media will never be happy and Trump will never be able to do "enough" in the eyes of many; the screaming heads have moved the goalposts so many times already (from spring break, to ventilators, to testing, to masks, etc.) that I have no doubt they'll do it again.  There's no certainty in waiting for the development and deployment of a vaccine.
 
The time has come to move on from this; continued lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing measures have made our communities less resilient by disrupting critical services and contributing to lost confidence in civil institutions.  No epidemiological model can predict these effects and their consequences.  People have always died, never before have we allowed irrational hysteria to degrade the most basic functions of our society.   

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

2.8 million Americans died in 2019.

Even if COVID kills 600k, many of them would have died anyway due to their age or underlying conditions.  More than 80% of U.S. COVID deaths are in those over age 65.

The Party of Life, folks!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

106 deaths in New Jersey today, by far the most per capital of any state, and only 25% less than California (which has more than 4x their population).

Average deaths have doubled in New Jersey in the past week, and they have a total death rate more than 10x California or Texas.

Why isn't this the state getting the attention?  It seems to be coming out far worse than any of the states having big case surges.  And yet somehow, people see it as an example of something that "worked".

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

2.8 million Americans died in 2019.

Even if COVID kills 600k, many of them would have died anyway due to their age or underlying conditions.  More than 80% of U.S. COVID deaths are in those over age 65.

The Party of Life, folks!

The pro birth party.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/1281402840317976576?s=21

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/9 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this post>

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25:

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26:

• Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25

6/27:

• Cases: 2,596,537 (+43,597 | Δ Change: ↓9.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 128,152 (+512 | Δ Change: ↓40.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

6/28: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,637,077 (+40,540 | Δ Change: ↓7.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 128,437 (+285 | Δ Change: ↓44.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/29:

• Cases: 2,681,802 (+44,725 | Δ Change: ↑10.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)
• Deaths: 128,779 (+342 | Δ Change: ↑20.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

6/30:

• Cases: 2,727,853 (+46,051 | Δ Change: ↑2.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.72%)
• Deaths: 130,122 (+1,343 | Δ Change: ↑292.69% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)

7/1:

• Cases: 2,779,953 (+52,100 | Δ Change: ↑13.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.91%)
• Deaths: 130,798 (+676 | Δ Change: ↓49.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

7/2:

• Cases: 2,837,189 (+57,236 | Δ Change: ↑9.86% | Σ Increase: ↑2.06%)
• Deaths: 131,485 (+687 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

7/3:

• Cases: 2,890,588 (+53,399 | Δ Change: ↓6.70% | Σ Increase: ↑1.88%)
• Deaths: 132,101 (+616 | Δ Change: ↓10.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

7/4:

• Cases: 2,935,770 (+45,182 | Δ Change: ↓15.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 132,318 (+212 | Δ Change: ↓65.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

7/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,982,928 (+47,158 | Δ Change: ↑4.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 132,569 (+251 | Δ Change: ↑18.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

7/6:

• Cases: 3,040,833 (+57,905 | Δ Change: ↑22.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 132,979 (+410 | Δ Change: ↑63.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

7/7:

• Cases: 3,097,084 (+56,251 | Δ Change: ↓2.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 133,972 (+993 | Δ Change: ↑142.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)

7/8 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 3,158,734 (+61,650 | Δ Change: ↑9.60% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 134,854 (+882 | Δ Change: ↓11.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)

7/9 (Today):

• Cases: 3,219,999 (+61,265 | Δ Change: ↓0.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 135,822 (+968 | Δ Change: ↑9.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

There is some potentially quite serious news from Kazakhstan and also Kyrgyzstan.

There is apparently some sort of unidentified/unknown "pneumonia," which is allegedly NOT COVID-19, which is circulating and resulting in a large number of deaths. The patients with this "pneumonia" apparently are testing negative for COVID-19, despite both countries reporting confirmed COVID-19 cases (1,962 yesterday from Kazakhstan and 361 yesterday from Kyrgyzstan).

This pneumonia is allegedly more deadly than COVID-19 (not sure what data that is based on though, probably crude CFRs from hospitals?).

https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2020/07/unknown-pneumonia-deadlier-than-covid-19-sweeping-kazakhstan-chinese-embassy-warns.html

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3092563/chinese-embassy-warns-deadly-unknown-pneumonia-kazakhstan

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/876510-community-acquired-pneumonia-kazakhstan-and-kyrgyzstan-and-environs

The Chinese embassy in Kazakhstan has warned of a deadly “unknown pneumonia” after the former Soviet republic reported a spike in pneumonia cases since June.

“The death rate of this disease is much higher than the novel coronavirus. The country’s health departments are conducting comparative research into the pneumonia virus, but have yet to identify the virus,” the embassy said in a warning to Chinese citizens in the country.

While the Chinese embassy described the illness as an “unknown pneumonia”, Kazakhstani officials and media have only said it is pneumonia. 

It was not clear why the Chinese embassy had described the illness as “unknown” or what information it had about the pneumonia.

What is going on here? I would think, or at least certainly hope, that the most likely explanation is that this is in fact COVID-19 and there is something wrong somehow with their tests. However, if so that doesn't explain how Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are able to confirm other patients as being COVID-19 positive... apparently they do have some tests that work to be able to do that... So if they have tests that work, presumably they tried using those same tests on these "pneumonia" cases...

What are other possibilities? Someone on flutrackers suggested it might be some sort of bacterial co-infection (not sure what that would imply, but if that were they were co-infected, why would they test negative for COVID-19?). Or could it be some sort of alternative mutated version of COVID? Could it be a totally different virus?

This is something that clearly needs to be investigated and sorted out ASAP. For the time being I would assume it is probably normal COVID and there is just some confusion, but if that happened not to be correct then we need to catch it and figure out what is going on immediately.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Kazakhstan apparently denies (using google translate to translate the article):

https://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/minzdrav-otvetil-zayavleniya-neizvestnoy-pnevmonii-407819/

The Ministry of Health has responded to media statements about "unknown, more deadly pneumonia" in Kazakhstan, Tengrinews.kz reports. In its official statement, the Ministry of Health emphasizes that the information is not true. "Some Chinese media report that Kazakhstan reported cases of unknown pneumonia, more deadly than coronavirus. The Ministry of Health has officially stated that this information is not true. "

"It should be noted that WHO introduced codes for pneumonia into the international classification of diseases - ICD-10, when CVI is diagnosed clinically or epidemiologically, for example, there is a symptom of frosted glass in the affected lungs, but it has not been laboratory-confirmed.
In this regard, Kazakhstan, like other countries of the world, keeps records and monitoring of this type of pneumonia, which allows timely management decisions aimed at stabilizing the incidence and prevalence of coronavirus infection. At a briefing on July 9, Kazakh Minister of Health Alexei Tsoi spoke about the number of pneumonia in the country as a whole: bacterial, fungal, viral origin, including according to the ICD-10 classification of “viral pneumonia of unspecified etiology,” the agency said.
⠀
"Therefore, the Ministry of Health emphasizes that Chinese media reports are not true."

I don't understand what that explanation is supposed to mean, but they apparently deny it.

[GP270watch]

2020 only half over.

What a year.

[Xing]

I am legitimately worried about schools re-opening this fall. The size of my classroom and the hallways really don’t allow for social distancing unless we’re at about 25% of normal capacity. I could maybe fit 8-9 students in my classroom with distance in between them, and that’s assuming that they don’t move an inch throughout the entire period. And that’s not even getting into the issue of having enough classroom materials for each student and keeping them cleaned consistently without extended time in between periods. We’re not prepared for this, especially schools that get less funding.

[Smeulders]

[..]

What is going on here? I would think, or at least certainly hope, that the most likely explanation is that this is in fact COVID-19 and there is something wrong somehow with their tests. However, if so that doesn't explain how Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are able to confirm other patients as being COVID-19 positive... apparently they do have some tests that work to be able to do that... So if they have tests that work, presumably they tried using those same tests on these "pneumonia" cases...

[...]

Countries may be able to test for Covid, but they may not be able to do so at scale, or consistently. Sure, a bunch of unidentified pneumonia cases is consistent with a new epidemic starting, but it is also consistent with bad testing for Covid. I'd put my money on Covid.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1281393494351925249

[Silent Hunter]

Anyways, at this rate, we should just have a strict national lockdown. Three weeks, no exceptions, and no interstate travel when possible.
Masks should also be mandatory and result in fines at the very least if not worn.
We are in the same situation we were in March, can we please not screw up this time like I warned about?
This is the only way to save our economy at this point.

If you have a national lockdown, infections will just rise again a month later.  Maybe this will reduce deaths because we’ll have better treatment in a month.  And it might be beneficial to implement lockdowns in some specific hot spots where the health care system is in danger of collapse.  But this strategy is not going to reduce total infections in the long run.

It's not a 'on-off' thing; look at the European approach where restrictions are gradually easing and apart from local spikes, cases are still falling.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Winning.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1281521482091249664

[Zache]

I can't believe how Florida and DeSantis just gave up on managing the virus. It's nuts.