2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Devils30]

The map was an R map back in 2011 but I think Dems push for a minimal change map now. They may try to add a town or two to NJ-7 to help Malinowski but this district is trending Dem anyway. If Rs don't win it in 2022 they might be done there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The map was an R map back in 2011 but I think Dems push for a minimal change map now. They may try to add a town or two to NJ-7 to help Malinowski but this district is trending Dem anyway. If Rs don't win it in 2022 they might be done there.

1   725,385   -14,490
2   714,970   -24,905
3   737,329   -2,546
4   740,459   584
5   736,696   -3,179
6   734,224   -5,651
7   738,729   -1,146
8   762,993   23,118
9   752,075   12,200
10   751,743   11,868
11   735,060   -4,815
12   749,035   9,160
These are the populations of current CDs on 2019 population estimates.
Some northward shift of the CDs is inevitable it seems.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/02e60080-eaa0-44c2-a204-f9b76a7be3d0
least-change map

[Roll Roons]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/02e60080-eaa0-44c2-a204-f9b76a7be3d0
least-change map

Assuming 2022 is a good enough year for Republicans, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 could all be vulnerable with this map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/02e60080-eaa0-44c2-a204-f9b76a7be3d0
least-change map

Assuming 2022 is a good enough year for Republicans, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 could all be vulnerable with this map.

Not really disagreeing - what just trying to figure out what a map along the lines Devil30 mentioned would look like.

[Brittain33]

Not a comment on any map but the real one, but I hate hate hate that Plainfield is stuck in NJ-12.

[Torie]

Not a comment on any map but the real one, but I hate hate hate that Plainfield is stuck in NJ-12.

Man, having just looked a the map, with a cf it is. The persons responsible are going to hell, and will have to share a cell with me there.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is there a way to create a Democratic or at least competitive district centered around Atlantic City?

[Roll Roons]

Is there a way to create a Democratic or at least competitive district centered around Atlantic City?

The current NJ-02 was only Trump +3, so it's fairly competitive on paper. LoBiondo's popularity made it Safe R while he was there.

But it's probably hard to put AC into a reliably blue district without some weird baconstrip to Camden.

[Former President tack50]

For fun, here is a Dem gerrymander map of New Jersey. In theory this should work as a 10D-2R-1S map, although you could argue the Dem districts are too risky and it is better to give a 3rd R sink?

All Dem incumbents except Bill Pascrell have their house inside their district

https://davesredistricting.org/join/153fd28e-6efe-4c0b-974d-d528bee15826



NJ-01: Clinton+17, D+9
NJ-02: Trump+17, R+6
NJ-03: Clinton+14, D+7
NJ-04: Trump+20, R+10
NJ-05: Clinton+1, R+2
NJ-06: Clinton+20, R+10
NJ-07: Clinton+11, D+3
NJ-08: Clinton+73, D+36 (48% Black CVAP)
NJ-09: Clinton+11, D+3
NJ-10: Clinton+46, D+24 (47% Hispanic CVAP)
NJ-11: Clinton+35, D+16
NJ-12: Clinton+10, D+4

[lfromnj]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/will-democrats-sacrifice-malinowski-to-assure-wins-for-gottheimer-sherrill/

Has some insider quotes

Wasserman's map is garbage though. Doesn't shore up NJ03 at all .

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there a way to create a Democratic or at least competitive district centered around Atlantic City?

The current NJ-02 was only Trump +3, so it's fairly competitive on paper. LoBiondo's popularity made it Safe R while he was there.

But it's probably hard to put AC into a reliably blue district without some weird baconstrip to Camden.

The mixture of Dem and Rep areas and the populations involved makes it difficult for South Jersey to have no swing districts in a reasonable map.

[Nyvin]

Meh, I think it's possible to have two safe D districts in South NJ.    There actually is a pretty solid road connection between Atlantic and Camden so it's not as crazy as it seems (ignoring what Donald Norcross would say about this map).







https://davesredistricting.org/join/b6718d39-93c8-45c7-a4c3-f3bda6a29954

Initially I thought shoring up all northern NJ dems was a horrible idea, but if you go strictly by 2020 results I guess it's possible.   Then again Biden just did great in the entire Northeast region so maybe that's not a good idea...?  This is assuming the NY Times process produces reliable results for converting to DRA maps.

It's actually not really possible to draw an R "sink" in NW NJ if you go by 2020 results, you can only get a normal, Safe R seat.

I guess it's just going to be a gamble to see if 2020 results are the new norm or just a one time occurrence.  

That all said I still think a 10D-2R map is probably in the NJ Dems best interests, especially in a 2022 midterm environment.

2020 Results (Based on NY Times page)

NJ-1   
55.07%   43.51%

NJ-2   
56.52%   42.23%

NJ-3   
62.13%   36.54%

NJ-4   
36.59%   62.11%

NJ-5   
59.04%   39.86%

NJ-6   
56.53%   42.20%

NJ-7   
44.37%   53.93%

NJ-8   
72.81%   26.27%

NJ-9   
59.10%   39.83%

NJ-10   
82.42%   16.66%

NJ-11   
60.18%   38.46%

NJ-12   
60.48%   38.20%

(no the map doesn't take incumbency residency into account)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Every district here voted for Hillary Clinton, and no district has a 2012/2016 PVI in excess of R+1. Every district is at least likely to elect a Democrat.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/f964ac21-05eb-4132-89f6-aed93f281235

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

Well, I never said it was impossible. Just difficult.

[cvparty]

Despite his ~scandal~ there isn't really any need to sacrifice Malinowski, here's a pretty safe and non-crazy 10-2 map with all incumbencies preserved and no more municipal splits than the current map. All Dem districts are double digits and all but two lean more Democratic than NJ at large (in 2020 at least):

NJ-01: Biden +21
NJ-02: Trump +14
NJ-03: Biden +17
NJ-04: Trump +16
NJ-05: Biden +12
NJ-06: Biden +17
NJ-07: Biden +21
NJ-08: Biden +43
NJ-09: Biden +20
NJ-10: Biden +64
NJ-11: Biden +14
NJ-12: Biden +23

edit: made slight changes for a prettier map + realized I missed Smith's home by a precinct 4, 6, 7, 11 and 12 were changed, and only by 1-2 points

[S019]

Despite his ~scandal~ there isn't really any need to sacrifice Malinowski, here's a pretty safe and non-crazy 10-2 map with all incumbencies preserved and all but one Dem districts leaning more Democratic than NJ at large (in 2020 at least):

NJ-01: Biden +21
NJ-02: Trump +14
NJ-03: Biden +17
NJ-04: Trump +15
NJ-05: Biden +12
NJ-06: Biden +16
NJ-07: Biden +20
NJ-08: Biden +43
NJ-09: Biden +20
NJ-10: Biden +64
NJ-11: Biden +16
NJ-12: Biden +22

That NJ-01 is not passing

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So I've been messing the a few maps in Dem trifecta states, and I've been steady tweaking this map to get the absolute best map I can for the Dems. All but the 1st and 7th are D+4 or greater. It would look slightly better if I ignored incumbents, but Malinowski, and Gottheimer's home really made this map uglier then it needed to be. (especially Gottheimer). I had an alternate version of this map where I made Pascrell (and Patterson) in the 7th and Gottheimer in the 9th, but Pascrell would've gone from a D+16 to D+2 so I'd imagine he'd raised all hell for that. He's still in a a more competitive, but still safe democratic seat in all but a biggest wave years. The biggest winner from this map is Malinowski, who goes from R+3 to D+8.

• NJ-1 R+14.22, currently no one in distirct
• NJ-2 D+4.17, currently Jeff van Drew
• NJ-3 D+8.46, currently Donald Norcross
• NJ-4 D+7.66, currently Bonnie Watson Coleman
• NJ-5 D+4.25, currently Andy Kim
• NJ-6 D+3.75, currently Mikie Sherrill
• NJ-7 D+1.04, currently Josh Gottheimer
• NJ-8 D+8.23, currently Tom Malinowski
• NJ-9 D+5.52, currently Bill Pascrell
• NJ-10 D+7.59, currently Frank Pallone
• NJ-11 D+31.63, currently Donald Payne
• NJ-12 D+22.2, currently Albio Sires 

Just gonna requote my ruthless 11-1 map from earlier

[Devils30]

Dems shouldn't agree to anything less than 10-2, they need as many seats as possible in NJ, MI, PA, CO, VA with commissions. One thing about a northwest NJ red district is that Sussex, Warren are small counties population wise and Hunterdon, Morris are trending Dem and a bad fit for a southern evangelical GOP. Someone like Zwicker might be able to win NJ-7 if Malinowski didn't run again, the GOP's once deep bench is on the decline.

NJ Sup. Ct is going to be 4-3 Dem by September. There is no incentive for Dems to throw Malinowski's seat away when the tiebreaker might in fact actually let them add towns like Plainfield, Princeton to NJ-7.

[CookieDamage]

Chris Smith is drawn out of his district.

[Brittain33]

What’s the thinking behind the Union-Mercer district?

[CookieDamage]

What’s the thinking behind the Union-Mercer district?

I had to keep Malinowski in the district

[S019]

Chris Smith is drawn out of his district.

Do you have 2016 data on this map? This seems like one of the more realistic 11-1 maps that I've seen, though it does some weird things with the Northeast NJ districts. The fact that politicians are on the NJ commission means that incumbent concerns will matter almost as much as a legislative map, so substantially changing the Northeast NJ seats like that probably won't fly, and also you probably want to get 2 out of 3 of the Northwest NJ seats to Clinton+10 or more, so that it would probably survive even a bad year, especially given Northern New Jersey isn't really known for being inelastic, if you're going to go for 10-2/11-1.

[Devils30]

Dems should not hesitate to let the court pick the tiebreaker, it will very well make Malinowski safer and if lucky enough, give Van Drew a tougher district while making Kim safer.

[CookieDamage]

Chris Smith is drawn out of his district.

Do you have 2016 data on this map? This seems like one of the more realistic 11-1 maps that I've seen, though it does some weird things with the Northeast NJ districts. The fact that politicians are on the NJ commission means that incumbent concerns will matter almost as much as a legislative map, so substantially changing the Northeast NJ seats like that probably won't fly, and also you probably want to get 2 out of 3 of the Northwest NJ seats to Clinton+10 or more, so that it would probably survive even a bad year, especially given Northern New Jersey isn't really known for being inelastic, if you're going to go for 10-2/11-1.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b843cff-03c1-4dec-a053-1abe8bf13f05

Here's the link, pls tell me if it doesnt work. It should be set to 2016