2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[pikachu]

I'm too lazy to make a map and whatnot, but all the Mercer-Middlesex splits are weird. I can see the temptation, but the eastern parts of Mercer outside of Trenton and Hamilton are more integrated with North Jersey and Middlesex than South Jersey and a map is likely going to reflect that. You have the minor economic hub around the Princeton (which would also be why I'd be surprised if Franklin is split from Princeton), commuter connections to New York and not Philadelphia, and (most crucially imo) the West Windsor-Plainsboro school district which crosses county lines. There's also going to be the need to accommodate Chris Smith, who lives in Hamilton iirc, so that should lead to at least a partial Hamilton district which goes to the ocean.

I also wouldn't read too much into which party has the advantage when it comes to drawing the map - last time around the arbitrator choose the Democratic map for the state legislature and the GOP map for Congress.   '

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Decided to see if Oryx's incumbent protection plan can be shored up even more and use the new 2018 population figures. It looks gross, but this map is population-adjusted with every incumbent in a seat that voted for their party by at least 10 points in 2016.

[Roll Roons]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

Map with a new Northwest sink. The typical balance will be 7D-4R-1T, which accurately reflects the state's partisanship.

Summary of the districts, assuming Joe Biden and all incumbents win in November:
NJ-01: Basically the same as now. Most of Camden County, and a bit more than half of Gloucester. Norcross will hold it easily. Safe D.

NJ-02: Very similar to the current district, though it includes a little bit more of Ocean. Closely divided at the presidential level, but more Republican downballot. We'll see if Van Drew becomes entrenched like LoBiondo was. Lean R initially.

NJ-03: Now the most Republican seat in the state, losing the PA border to consist of most of Ocean, Waterford in Camden, and the more exurban/rural parts of Burlington. Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst remains in the district. No Democrat would have a chance here. Safe R.

NJ-04: Slightly more Democratic than before, losing its share of Ocean (apart from half of Jackson Township) and gaining Monroe and half of Old Bridge in Middlesex, while still holding the majority of Monmouth and extending an arm into Mercer to accommodate Smith's hometown. He should be OK while he's around. It could be competitive if it opens up, but Republicans would be favored. Safe R with Smith, Likely R if open.

NJ-05: Now entirely within Bergen, and therefore far more Democratic. Gottheimer will be just fine in general elections, though he might have primary troubles. Safe D.

NJ-06: Doesn't change that much, but it picks up a bit of Union, most notably heavily Democratic Plainfield, while dropping part of Old Bridge and some coastal Monmouth towns. Pallone's for as long as he wants it. As an aside, this district probably has the highest concentration of Indian-Americans in the country. Safe D.

NJ-07: The Northwest GOP sink. Now includes Princeton, all of Hunterdon and Warren, most of Sussex and Somerset, and a handful of towns from Morris, Union and Passaic. Malinowski lives here, but would have almost no chance of winning. There are a lot of GOP officeholders here, and pretty much anyone other than a Scott Garrett-type lunatic should be able to keep this district for a long time. Safe R.

NJ-08: 42% Hispanic seat based in Hudson County. Still includes Jersey City, Hoboken and most of Elizabeth, in addition to more of Union County. Splits Union Township with the 10th. Sires will have this seat forever. Safe D.

NJ-09: Now includes all of Passaic aside from West Milford, the Northwest corner and Southern tip of Bergen, Secaucus in Hudson and Nutley, Belleville and part of Montclair in Essex. Pascrell and Sherrill both live here, but the current 11th is basically her district, so she'd run there. Safe D.

NJ-10: 47% black seat based in urban Newark. Also includes some of the Essex suburbs, such as the Oranges and most of Montclair, along with a good part of Union Township. It's pretty similar to the current one, and Payne has this for life. Safe D.

NJ-11: The swingiest seat in the state, and generally similar to the current one. Still includes almost all of Morris, the Northern and Western Essex suburbs (including my hometown of Short Hills), the southern part of Sussex, and several suburban towns in Union. Sherrill lives in the 9th, but this district includes most of her current territory, so she'd likely run here. Fun fact is that Jared Kushner and Chris Christie are both from this district. Probably a Tossup to start, since Sherrill is strong, but Republicans have a good bench in the district and would have a good chance in a Biden midterm.

NJ-12: The ugliest seat on the map. Shares a lot of territory with the current, particularly Mercer (including Trenton), Middlesex and Franklin in Somerset, but also takes in the Burlington suburbs that are closest to Philly. Honestly, it makes a lot more sense to put them with Trenton than Ocean. Kim and Watson Coleman both live here, but she's in her 70s so she might just retire and let him have a long career. Safe D.


Caveat about NJ-07 and NJ-11: Tom Kean Jr. lives in Westfield in Union County. If he wins in November, the 7th would lose its share of Morris and the Union town of New Providence to the 11th, while gaining Westfield and the neighboring town of Mountainside. As a result, the 11th, which would now include all of Morris, becomes marginally more Republican and the 7th slightly less so, but it should still be enough for him.  

With NJ-03, Kate Gibbs lives in Lumberton, and David Richter actually lives in Princeton, but would move to Ocean County. Either of them winning this fall would not affect the map.

How the map would look if Kean wins: https://davesredistricting.org/join/baa840f7-e14f-4b2e-bcaa-6f8f4a337fd1

[cvparty]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::4dd4e48d-0c0a-4464-9585-f5331587297a

Map with a new Northwest sink. The typical balance will be 7D-4R-1T, which accurately reflects the state's partisanship.

Summary of the districts, assuming all incumbents win in November:
NJ-01: Basically the same as now. Most of Camden County, and a bit more than half of Gloucester. Norcross will hold it easily. Safe D.

NJ-02: Very similar to the current district, though it includes a little bit more of Ocean. Closely divided at the presidential level, but trending Republican. We'll see if Van Drew becomes entrenched like LoBiondo was. Lean R initially.

NJ-03: Now the most Republican seat in the state, losing the PA border to consist of most of Ocean, Waterford in Camden, and most of the rural/exurban parts of Burlington. Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst remains in the district. A Democrat would have no chance here. Safe R.

NJ-04: Slightly more Democratic than before, losing its share of Ocean (apart from half of Jackson Township) and gaining Monroe and half of Old Bridge in Middlesex, while still holding the majority of Monmouth and extending an arm into Mercer to accommodate Smith's hometown. He should be OK while he's around. It could be competitive if it opens up, but Republicans would be favored. Safe R with Smith, Likely R if open.

NJ-05: Now entirely within Bergen. Gottheimer will be fine in general elections, though he might have primary troubles. Safe D.

NJ-06: Doesn't change that much, but it picks up a bit of Union, most notably heavily Democratic Plainfield, in exchange for part of Old Bridge and some coastal Monmouth towns. Pallone's for as long as he wants it. As an aside, this district probably has the highest concentration of Indian-Americans in the country. Safe D.

NJ-07: The Northwest GOP sink. Now includes Princeton, all of Hunterdon and Warren, most of Sussex and Somerset, and a handful of towns from Morris, Union and Passaic. Malinowski lives here, but would have little chance of winning. There are a lot of GOP officeholders here, and pretty much anyone other than a Scott Garrett-type lunatic should be able to keep this district for a long time. Safe R.

NJ-08: 42% Hispanic seat based in Hudson County. Still includes Jersey City, Hoboken and most of Elizabeth, in addition to more of Union County. Splits Union Township with the 10th. Sires will have this seat forever. Safe D.

NJ-09: Now includes all of Passaic aside from West Milford, the Northwest corner and Southern tip of Bergen, Secaucus in Hudson and Nutley, Belleville and part of Montclair in Essex. Pascrell and Sherrill both live here, but the current 11th is basically her district, so she'd run there. Safe D.

NJ-10: 47% black seat based in urban Newark. Also includes some of the Essex suburbs, such as the Oranges and most of Montclair, along with a good part of Union Township. It's pretty similar to the current one, and Payne has this for life. Safe D.

NJ-11: The swingiest seat in the state, and generally similar to the current one. Still includes almost all of Morris, the Northern and Western Essex suburbs (including my hometown of Short Hills), the southern part of Sussex, and several suburban towns in Union. Sherrill lives in the 9th, but this district includes most of her current territory, so she'd likely run here. Fun fact is that Jared Kushner and Chris Christie are both from this district. Probably a Tossup to start, since Sherrill is strong, but Republicans have a good bench in the district.

NJ-12: The ugliest seat on the map. Shares a lot of territory with the current, particularly Mercer (including Trenton), Middlesex and Franklin in Somerset, but also takes in the Burlington suburbs that are closest to Philly. Honestly, it makes a lot more sense to put them with Trenton than Ocean. Kim and Watson Coleman both live here, but she's in her 70s so she might just retire and let him have a long career. Safe D.


Caveat about NJ-07 and NJ-11: If Tom Kean Jr. wins in November, his hometown of Westfield and the neighboring town of Mountainside, which are in the 11th, would shift to the 7th in exchange for Harding, Chatham and Long Hill in Morris and New Providence in Union. As a result, the 11th would become marginally more Republican and the 7th slightly less so, but it should still be fine for Kean.

With NJ-03, Kate Gibbs lives in Lumberton, and David Richter actually lives in Princeton, but would move to Ocean County. Either of them winning this fall would not affect the map.

How the map would look if Kean wins: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::62bc8924-cfd8-4509-96e6-fbae9a241eeb

u need to use the share link, not copy the url from the address bar cuz no one can see it

[Roll Roons]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::4dd4e48d-0c0a-4464-9585-f5331587297a

Map with a new Northwest sink. The typical balance will be 7D-4R-1T, which accurately reflects the state's partisanship.

Summary of the districts, assuming all incumbents win in November:
NJ-01: Basically the same as now. Most of Camden County, and a bit more than half of Gloucester. Norcross will hold it easily. Safe D.

NJ-02: Very similar to the current district, though it includes a little bit more of Ocean. Closely divided at the presidential level, but trending Republican. We'll see if Van Drew becomes entrenched like LoBiondo was. Lean R initially.

NJ-03: Now the most Republican seat in the state, losing the PA border to consist of most of Ocean, Waterford in Camden, and most of the rural/exurban parts of Burlington. Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst remains in the district. A Democrat would have no chance here. Safe R.

NJ-04: Slightly more Democratic than before, losing its share of Ocean (apart from half of Jackson Township) and gaining Monroe and half of Old Bridge in Middlesex, while still holding the majority of Monmouth and extending an arm into Mercer to accommodate Smith's hometown. He should be OK while he's around. It could be competitive if it opens up, but Republicans would be favored. Safe R with Smith, Likely R if open.

NJ-05: Now entirely within Bergen. Gottheimer will be fine in general elections, though he might have primary troubles. Safe D.

NJ-06: Doesn't change that much, but it picks up a bit of Union, most notably heavily Democratic Plainfield, in exchange for part of Old Bridge and some coastal Monmouth towns. Pallone's for as long as he wants it. As an aside, this district probably has the highest concentration of Indian-Americans in the country. Safe D.

NJ-07: The Northwest GOP sink. Now includes Princeton, all of Hunterdon and Warren, most of Sussex and Somerset, and a handful of towns from Morris, Union and Passaic. Malinowski lives here, but would have little chance of winning. There are a lot of GOP officeholders here, and pretty much anyone other than a Scott Garrett-type lunatic should be able to keep this district for a long time. Safe R.

NJ-08: 42% Hispanic seat based in Hudson County. Still includes Jersey City, Hoboken and most of Elizabeth, in addition to more of Union County. Splits Union Township with the 10th. Sires will have this seat forever. Safe D.

NJ-09: Now includes all of Passaic aside from West Milford, the Northwest corner and Southern tip of Bergen, Secaucus in Hudson and Nutley, Belleville and part of Montclair in Essex. Pascrell and Sherrill both live here, but the current 11th is basically her district, so she'd run there. Safe D.

NJ-10: 47% black seat based in urban Newark. Also includes some of the Essex suburbs, such as the Oranges and most of Montclair, along with a good part of Union Township. It's pretty similar to the current one, and Payne has this for life. Safe D.

NJ-11: The swingiest seat in the state, and generally similar to the current one. Still includes almost all of Morris, the Northern and Western Essex suburbs (including my hometown of Short Hills), the southern part of Sussex, and several suburban towns in Union. Sherrill lives in the 9th, but this district includes most of her current territory, so she'd likely run here. Fun fact is that Jared Kushner and Chris Christie are both from this district. Probably a Tossup to start, since Sherrill is strong, but Republicans have a good bench in the district.

NJ-12: The ugliest seat on the map. Shares a lot of territory with the current, particularly Mercer (including Trenton), Middlesex and Franklin in Somerset, but also takes in the Burlington suburbs that are closest to Philly. Honestly, it makes a lot more sense to put them with Trenton than Ocean. Kim and Watson Coleman both live here, but she's in her 70s so she might just retire and let him have a long career. Safe D.


Caveat about NJ-07 and NJ-11: If Tom Kean Jr. wins in November, his hometown of Westfield and the neighboring town of Mountainside, which are in the 11th, would shift to the 7th in exchange for Harding, Chatham and Long Hill in Morris and New Providence in Union. As a result, the 11th would become marginally more Republican and the 7th slightly less so, but it should still be fine for Kean.

With NJ-03, Kate Gibbs lives in Lumberton, and David Richter actually lives in Princeton, but would move to Ocean County. Either of them winning this fall would not affect the map.

How the map would look if Kean wins: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::62bc8924-cfd8-4509-96e6-fbae9a241eeb

u need to use the share link, not copy the url from the address bar cuz no one can see it

Fixed!

[Roll Roons]

I want to keep two R PVI districts in the North (making Gottheimer's more Democratic by cutting out Warren and Sussex, though it would only be D+1 or so - not out of reach in a good Republican year). Would it be better to have the 7th and the 11th both be around R+5, or make the 7th R+7 and while keeping the 11th R+3? My current map has the 11th take all of Morris, in addition to western Essex, some suburban Union towns, the northernmost part of Somerset (Bedminster, Far Hills, Bernardsville) and the southeast corner of Sussex. The 7th has all of Hunterdon and Warren, the rest of Sussex, the bulk of Somerset, and several other towns in Union. Malinowski and Sherrill (who technically lives in the 9th, but would likely run in the 11th) would both be underdogs in a Biden midterm, but could survive.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

Alternatively, I can make the 7th more Republican by having it lose its share of Union to the 11th, while it would gain the latter's share of Sussex and Somerset, along with a couple towns in Northern Morris. In a Biden midterm, Malinowski would likely be DOA, while Sherrill would have a fighting chance, but still be very vulnerable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I want to keep two R PVI districts in the North (making Gottheimer's more Democratic by cutting out Warren and Sussex, though it would only be D+1 or so - not out of reach in a good Republican year). Would it be better to have the 7th and the 11th both be around R+5, or make the 7th R+7 and while keeping the 11th R+3? My current map has the 11th take all of Morris, in addition to western Essex, some suburban Union towns, the northernmost part of Somerset (Bedminster, Far Hills, Bernardsville) and the southeast corner of Sussex. The 7th has all of Hunterdon and Warren, the rest of Sussex, the bulk of Somerset, and several other towns in Union. Malinowski and Sherrill (who technically lives in the 9th, but would likely run in the 11th) would both be underdogs in a Biden midterm, but could survive.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

Alternatively, I can make the 7th more Republican by having it lose its share of Union to the 11th, while it would gain the latter's share of Sussex and Somerset, along with a couple towns in Northern Morris. In a Biden midterm, Malinowski would likely be DOA, while Sherrill would have a fighting chance, but still be very vulnerable.

You should probably make them both R+5.

[Roll Roons]

I want to keep two R PVI districts in the North (making Gottheimer's more Democratic by cutting out Warren and Sussex, though it would only be D+1 or so - not out of reach in a good Republican year). Would it be better to have the 7th and the 11th both be around R+5, or make the 7th R+7 and while keeping the 11th R+3? My current map has the 11th take all of Morris, in addition to western Essex, some suburban Union towns, the northernmost part of Somerset (Bedminster, Far Hills, Bernardsville) and the southeast corner of Sussex. The 7th has all of Hunterdon and Warren, the rest of Sussex, the bulk of Somerset, and several other towns in Union. Malinowski and Sherrill (who technically lives in the 9th, but would likely run in the 11th) would both be underdogs in a Biden midterm, but could survive.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

Alternatively, I can make the 7th more Republican by having it lose its share of Union to the 11th, while it would gain the latter's share of Sussex and Somerset, along with a couple towns in Northern Morris. In a Biden midterm, Malinowski would likely be DOA, while Sherrill would have a fighting chance, but still be very vulnerable.

You should probably make them both R+5.

I was thinking that as well. Plus if Kean wins this fall, he gets a safer district.

[S019]

I think 9-3 might be the way to go here (giving up a sink in the north), and before people scold me for ugly boundaries, remember this is a politician commission and they have produced ugly boundaries in the past, parochial concerns are far more important in the NJ commission than in others. 2 GOP seats in the north simply will be too weak and they will not last in wave years (same with the current 3 Dem seats in the north), so 2-1 should make everyone happy, as for the south, I'm guessing both sides want their respective incumbents safe, so they try something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/f2e6f695-f9a8-422b-9cb3-030ac4e59927

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

title,

[S019]

You could, but it requires unpacking the 1st, which Norcross would never allow to happen, it is much easier and logical to cede the 2nd by giving Atlantic City to the 3rd, by hugging the coast, and for those who say that drawing a seat by hugging the coast will never happen, just see the current 6th. Anyways, no, and if you are at the point where you are unpacking the 1st, Kim is being shored up first before moving to draw out Van Drew. Not to mention the Republicans on the commission would block any map that drew out Van Drew, so no it just isn't practical or logical and isn't happening.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Yes easily, no reason for New Jersey to have more than one republican

[Mr.Phips]

No.  Redistricting will be a bipartisan incumbent protection that also creates a strong Republican district for Tom Kean to run in.

[Sol]

Tbh, if I'm a New Jersey Democrat I'd probably be pretty worried about overextension. If I'm drawing the maps I'm giving him a safe R seat in the shore (he is from Cape May) and then trading his Dem areas into NJ-01 and NJ-03.

[lfromnj]

No.  Redistricting will be a bipartisan incumbent protection that also creates a strong Republican district for Tom Kean to run in.

Yeah South Jersey is pretty clean and easy to work with. North Jersey is the main question. 10-2 is possible with both being SJ sinks but it make other people angry. It would definitely butcher Mercer county who don't have a county machine as college liberals never do.

[S019]

No.  Redistricting will be a bipartisan incumbent protection that also creates a strong Republican district for Tom Kean to run in.

Yeah South Jersey is pretty clean and easy to work with. North Jersey is the main question. 10-2 is possible with both being SJ sinks but it make other people angry. It would definitely butcher Mercer county who don't have a county machine as college liberals never do.

Taking apart Mercer County is going to lead to concerns from Bonnie Watson Coleman, adding new blue areas to her seat makes her vulnerable to a primary and she would object to red areas being added. 9-3 with one North Jersey sink is the easiest thing to do, also a secure 10-2 requires a mess in the north that simply won't happen.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

NJ-01 is never getting cracked with Norcross in it, and if it somehow does get cracked it'll be to shore up Kim, not to sink Van Drew.

[lfromnj]

NJ-01 is never getting cracked with Norcross in it, and if it somehow does get cracked it'll be to shore up Kim, not to sink Van Drew.

I think Norcross will want to give up areas like Cherry Hill etc to Kim as I see that the most likely zone of a primary challenger

[Sestak]

Yeah, even in the event that they could do it, I really don't know if it'd be a good idea. Better to sink him.

Granted, Kim had an impressive overperformance this year and might not completely need the help.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, even in the event that they could do it, I really don't know if it'd be a good idea. Better to sink him.

Granted, Kim had an impressive overperformance this year and might not completely need the help.

Kim will need reenforcement in the future.  Look for him to drop most or all of Ocean county to Van Drew and Smith.

[lfromnj]

Basically maximum incumbent protection in SJ.

Norcross loses white upscale libs in Cherry Hill, Kim gets Safe d and Van drew gets a Safe R.Smith keeps his home in Mercer. Keeps most of Mercer leftover to figure out what to do there.

[Sestak]

(also going to report this to request a merge with the general NJ thread)

[S019]

Basically maximum incumbent protection in SJ.

Norcross loses white upscale libs in Cherry Hill, Kim gets Safe d and Van drew gets a Safe R.Smith keeps his home in Mercer. Keeps most of Mercer leftover to figure out what to do there.

This is an interesting take on the map, and better than my map at getting the job done imo, but I do have to wonder is it even necessary for Norcross to give up Cherry Hill? Based on this map, I think you could probably get away with picking up some light red precincts and still keep Kim safe?

[lfromnj]

Its not really for Kim, Its just college white liberals are the most likely to primary Norcross.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So I've been messing the a few maps in Dem trifecta states, and I've been steady tweaking this map to get the absolute best map I can for the Dems. All but the 1st and 7th are D+4 or greater. It would look slightly better if I ignored incumbents, but Malinowski, and Gottheimer's home really made this map uglier then it needed to be. (especially Gottheimer). I had an alternate version of this map where I made Pascrell (and Patterson) in the 7th and Gottheimer in the 9th, but Pascrell would've gone from a D+16 to D+2 so I'd imagine he'd raised all hell for that. He's still in a a more competitive, but still safe democratic seat in all but a biggest wave years. The biggest winner from this map is Malinowski, who goes from R+3 to D+8.

• NJ-1 R+14.22, currently no one in distirct
• NJ-2 D+4.17, currently Jeff van Drew
• NJ-3 D+8.46, currently Donald Norcross
• NJ-4 D+7.66, currently Bonnie Watson Coleman
• NJ-5 D+4.25, currently Andy Kim
• NJ-6 D+3.75, currently Mikie Sherrill
• NJ-7 D+1.04, currently Josh Gottheimer
• NJ-8 D+8.23, currently Tom Malinowski
• NJ-9 D+5.52, currently Bill Pascrell
• NJ-10 D+7.59, currently Frank Pallone
• NJ-11 D+31.63, currently Donald Payne
• NJ-12 D+22.2, currently Albio Sires