2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

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Yes easily, no reason for New Jersey to have more than one republican

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So I've been messing the a few maps in Dem trifecta states, and I've been steady tweaking this map to get the absolute best map I can for the Dems. All but the 1st and 7th are D+4 or greater. It would look slightly better if I ignored incumbents, but Malinowski, and Gottheimer's home really made this map uglier then it needed to be. (especially Gottheimer). I had an alternate version of this map where I made Pascrell (and Patterson) in the 7th and Gottheimer in the 9th, but Pascrell would've gone from a D+16 to D+2 so I'd imagine he'd raised all hell for that. He's still in a a more competitive, but still safe democratic seat in all but a biggest wave years. The biggest winner from this map is Malinowski, who goes from R+3 to D+8.

• NJ-1 R+14.22, currently no one in distirct
• NJ-2 D+4.17, currently Jeff van Drew
• NJ-3 D+8.46, currently Donald Norcross
• NJ-4 D+7.66, currently Bonnie Watson Coleman
• NJ-5 D+4.25, currently Andy Kim
• NJ-6 D+3.75, currently Mikie Sherrill
• NJ-7 D+1.04, currently Josh Gottheimer
• NJ-8 D+8.23, currently Tom Malinowski
• NJ-9 D+5.52, currently Bill Pascrell
• NJ-10 D+7.59, currently Frank Pallone
• NJ-11 D+31.63, currently Donald Payne
• NJ-12 D+22.2, currently Albio Sires 

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NJ redistricting isn't done by a trifecta. Its a bipartisan commission. At the very least expect Van Drew's/ Smith to keep an R seat. The main question is what happens with North Jersey.

I’ve been working under the assumption dems get ruthless and abolish commissions where they can do they can fix the maps for as many seats for themselves as possible. Ya know what republicans have been doing

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NJ redistricting isn't done by a trifecta. Its a bipartisan commission. At the very least expect Van Drew's/ Smith to keep an R seat. The main question is what happens with North Jersey.

At this point I feel pretty confident in 2-1 D North Jersey, I think 3 D's is a. a dummymander and b. would get strong opposition from the Reps on the commission, and 2-1 R is probably a dummymander, especially with how Morris and Bergen are shifting, and the Democrats would never allow it. 2-1 gives the GOP a sink that should be safe and that makes them happy and the Democrats keep 2 of their incumbents happy.

You can see my map earlier in the thread which had a relatively safe 2-1 south Jersey map. The seat that was van Drew’s I made D+4, while keeping Norcross in a safe seat

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So I've been messing the a few maps in Dem trifecta states, and I've been steady tweaking this map to get the absolute best map I can for the Dems. All but the 1st and 7th are D+4 or greater. It would look slightly better if I ignored incumbents, but Malinowski, and Gottheimer's home really made this map uglier then it needed to be. (especially Gottheimer). I had an alternate version of this map where I made Pascrell (and Patterson) in the 7th and Gottheimer in the 9th, but Pascrell would've gone from a D+16 to D+2 so I'd imagine he'd raised all hell for that. He's still in a a more competitive, but still safe democratic seat in all but a biggest wave years. The biggest winner from this map is Malinowski, who goes from R+3 to D+8.

• NJ-1 R+14.22, currently no one in distirct
• NJ-2 D+4.17, currently Jeff van Drew
• NJ-3 D+8.46, currently Donald Norcross
• NJ-4 D+7.66, currently Bonnie Watson Coleman
• NJ-5 D+4.25, currently Andy Kim
• NJ-6 D+3.75, currently Mikie Sherrill
• NJ-7 D+1.04, currently Josh Gottheimer
• NJ-8 D+8.23, currently Tom Malinowski
• NJ-9 D+5.52, currently Bill Pascrell
• NJ-10 D+7.59, currently Frank Pallone
• NJ-11 D+31.63, currently Donald Payne
• NJ-12 D+22.2, currently Albio Sires 

Just gonna requote my ruthless 11-1 map from earlier

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Looks like Chris Smith might have to move to Ocean County.

Already has said he will

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Chris Smith should retire.

I see now why these congressmembers are millionaires. They save up money to move from place to place when they get redistricted out of their hometowns.

Congressmembers shouldn't be rich. How much homes do they have? I wonder if they rent or own homes?

I think you’re over estimating a bit. Most congresspeople are wealthy because to run, win, and actually commute as a federal legislator is expensive and time consuming. Often people who don’t have substantial wealth can’t run. In SC I heard some democratic operatives grown that the candidate for SC-7 couldn’t spend more time on her campaign cause she was a working single mother (gross ik). Campaigns are a (moderately) rich man’s game

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https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1494497981554380801?cxt=HHwWgsCywd__wr0pAAA...

Reportedly, there is a narrow but plausible path to GOP legislative majorities in 2023. Honestly, New Jersey Republicans are criminally underrated as a party.

New Jersey is a weird state in that it’s not democratic enough where the republicans are moderates (Vermont, Mass.) but not democratic enough to be 100% safe, leading to things like Chris Christie