2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Brittain33]

Watson Coleman lives in Mercer County, and I think Smith still does, too.

[Brittain33]

That NJ-7 is possibly the worst-smelling district in the country without a hog CAFO.

[Brittain33]

That’s a pretty good mirror of the PA Supreme Court’s goal in putting a thumb on the scale for Democrats to ensure a more representative delegation. (This is not a negative comment.)

[Brittain33]

When I drew a North Jersey R vote sink for Kean that’s exactly what it looked like. I wonder if the commission would be willing to draw a district with that tendril into Westfield - it makes sense politically but it looks corrupt.

It’s been funny how over 25 years NJ-12 has made a full journey from Likely R to Dem vote sink protecting Republican incumbents to the north and south.

[Brittain33]

That’s a great map for COI. Your NJ-11 is a Dem vote sink but that’s not ridiculous in the service of a fair map.

What happens if you move Perth Amboy into the Hispanic district and move some of the more Democrat towns in the Middlesex county part of 5 into 6? If you put East Brunswick, Cranbury, East Windsor into NJ-6, it should make the district more Asian and potentially able to elect an Asian-American representative while making 5 safer for Republicans.

But I don’t know where you’d best make up the population in 5 without messing up 2 and 3.

[Brittain33]

Sol, I love your two Jersey Shore districts. Things look so much better if you stop trying to protect Smith and Pallone’s residences.

[Brittain33]

Not a comment on any map but the real one, but I hate hate hate that Plainfield is stuck in NJ-12.

[Brittain33]

What’s the thinking behind the Union-Mercer district?

[Brittain33]

How many people live in the purple bit of western Monmouth County? I would give that to the Ocean County district and rotate all the other south Jersey districts to compensate. That would make NJ-2 more Republican by bringing some of the Gloucester County suburbs into the Camden district. I don’t think it’s an issue to split southern Ocean County.

[Brittain33]

How many people live in the purple bit of western Monmouth County? I would give that to the Ocean County district and rotate all the other south Jersey districts to compensate. That would make NJ-2 more Republican by bringing some of the Gloucester County suburbs into the Camden district. I don’t think it’s an issue to split southern Ocean County.

Personally I think this is a bad decision. The area between Ocean and Atlantic Counties is quite barren and empty and forms a natural geographic barrier that ideally should not be crossed (thus so few people living in that southern part of Burlington County). However, the western edge of Monmouth County is very separate from the rest of Monmouth County and more oriented towards Trenton than the beach, so is a very good place to split Monmouth. In other words, you're exchanging a good split for a bad one.

I was thinking mainly of how to resolve the split in the Philly suburbs in Gloucester County.

[Brittain33]

Is it possible to Democrats to do 9-3 map by throwing away Gottheimer and making Malinowski safe?

I don't see how. You're going to end up with a Bergen-based district that Gottheimer can represent.

[Brittain33]

I don’t think I’ve seen someone put Chris Smith in the northwest R pack before. Very creative.

[Brittain33]

I wonder how much of that Democratic Monmouth County shore district will be inhabitable in 2070.

[Brittain33]

I wonder how much of that Democratic Monmouth County shore district will be inhabitable in 2070.

All of it, most likely.  NYC area is more than wealthy enough to build a durable seawall.

They're struggling to get the political will to build defenses in Lower Manhattan. Sandbars on the Atlantic can't and won't be protected, and it's unlikely the lower Bay (west of Sandy Hook) will be protected. Manhattan needs that part of NJ to bear the brunt of surges.

[Brittain33]

Gottheimer also has an absurd amount of money banked.

[Brittain33]

Light blue district is +6 Biden and it meets all basic requirements lol.

Looks compact and doesn’t unduly favor one party. Well done!

[Brittain33]

Drawing Andy Kim and Chris Smith together and putting Tom Kean Jr. in the 12th? I have my doubts.

[Brittain33]

NJ Twitter/Maybe Actual Map

The map looks more realistic only because it's in a GIS program instead of DRA. I doubt it's the actual map given that they are still in negotations, but I put it into DRA to see the partisanship.

Northwest Sink is Trump +10.1. Van Drew's seat is Trump +8.9. All the other Dems get safe seats.

I mean, if they were drawing a compromise map and didn’t care about Chris Smith, it makes a lot of sense. This is the correct compromise to draw. Perhaps Smith has decided to retire. With Roe v. Wade about to be overturned, he’s completed his work.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1473662224237531138?s=21

[Brittain33]

Malinowski should primary Gottheimer now

Gottheimer has an 8-figure campaign account, sadly.

[Brittain33]

It's past 10:30. Still no map?

(checks web site) No, there's no live feed going yet.

[Brittain33]

It's starting

https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/media/mp.asp?M=A/ENCODER-4&S=2020L

Audio-only for me

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473681823611990019?s=20

[Brittain33]

This Steinhardt guy has the thickest NJ accent so far.

[Brittain33]

I'm looking forward to the 2040 redistricting when the 4th district is just Lakewood and the immediately adjacent towns.