2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Other than that for a county integrity map its not bad for NJ. NJ counties are actually pretty important COI's really but the problem is its a state with only 21 counties but has 12 districts.

Yeah, even in a county integrity map you'll find yourself having to split some counties at least three times due to the location of some counties, the exact populations of said counties, and the exact number of districts.
I wonder how things might change in an 11 district map?

[cvparty]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

please don't put burlington and ocean together

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

please don't put burlington and ocean together

It's a choice that can be made validly on a map.

[Sol]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

please don't put burlington and ocean together

It's a choice that can be made validly on a map.

Sure, just like splitting Bucks.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

please don't put burlington and ocean together

It's a choice that can be made validly on a map.

Sure, just like splitting Bucks.

Ocean and Burlington are both South Jersey. Mercer is Central while Burlington is South.
Mercer being paired with parts of the corridor due east in the line from Philly and NYC is a valid choice.

[Sol]

Ocean is more NYC oriented though, while Burlington is clearly more in the Philly sphere of influence.

Plus there's a decent argument to be made that Eastern and Western South Jersey should be kept separate, since they have pretty different cultures and are separated by the remote and sparsely populated Pine Barrens.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ocean is more NYC oriented though, while Burlington is clearly more in the Philly sphere of influence.

Plus there's a decent argument to be made that Eastern and Western South Jersey should be kept separate, since they have pretty different cultures and are separate by the remote and sparsely populated Pine Barrens.

I happen to think that while Mercer+Burlington is a decent pairing, so is Ocean+Burlington. There are arguments in favor of both so I don't have a strong preference for either. What I do there tends to be affected by other parts of the map. I used to hate the idea of Burlingocean as opposed to Mercerlington, but that was when I was more influenced by the likes of Stephen Wolf.
The Pine Barrens argument is also a double-edged sword if raised in objection to a Burlingocean district, because you could argue you are actually dividing the Pine Barrens into two neat districts - a northern one (the 3rd) and a southern one (the 2nd).

[S019]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

I don't think this is fair given Western Essex was linked to Middlesex, west Essex clearly belongs with Morris, I think Union+taking more of Middlesex in from 12 could work, but the current 6th does feel somewhat like a leftover seat, but I think Essex to Middlesex is just a bridge too far, Woodbridge and Livingston have very little in common.

Fair Map^TM

My main issue with this is what is either a tri or quad cut of Essex, and also I don't think a fair map would eliminate the Hispanic opportunity seat in Hudson County. Also the Passaic cut looks a bit unclean, I would leave Wayne with the West Milford seat, its more Clifton, Paterson, and Passaic that I would throw into the Bergen seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

I don't think this is fair given Western Essex was linked to Middlesex, west Essex clearly belongs with Morris, I think Union+taking more of Middlesex in from 12 could work, but the current 6th does feel somewhat like a leftover seat, but I think Essex to Middlesex is just a bridge too far, Woodbridge and Livingston have very little in common.

Northern Jersey was built around the VRA seats (which were drawn first), and Morris+Sussex+Warren.
I balked at that 6th as well, but I felt I had no real choice. The VRA seats can't soak up heavily white far N Essex and I wanted just two districts within Bergen, and there isn't enough people in Bergen+Passaic for districts based there to take in North Essex. If I let the Hispanic seat lose Elizabeth and take in parts of Bergen (it has enough wiggle room), it would only lengthen the 5th's tail, unless I redrew the black seat as well. I suppose it's possible to rejig things, and this might even erase a county split.
I am willing to tolerate a very clearly unideal district if it makes the overall map better. The flipside of the problematic 6th is a better 11th, 7th, 5th, and 10th.
I shall now see if the 6th being improved will destroy what is good about other northern New Jersey districts.

[cvparty]

Ocean is more NYC oriented though, while Burlington is clearly more in the Philly sphere of influence.

Plus there's a decent argument to be made that Eastern and Western South Jersey should be kept separate, since they have pretty different cultures and are separate by the remote and sparsely populated Pine Barrens.

I happen to think that while Mercer+Burlington is a decent pairing, so is Ocean+Burlington. There are arguments in favor of both so I don't have a strong preference for either. What I do there tends to be affected by other parts of the map. I used to hate the idea of Burlingocean as opposed to Mercerlington, but that was when I was more influenced by the likes of Stephen Wolf.
The Pine Barrens argument is also a double-edged sword if raised in objection to a Burlingocean district, because you could argue you are actually dividing the Pine Barrens into two neat districts - a northern one (the 3rd) and a southern one (the 2nd).

the argument isn't about splitting the pine barrens, it's about crossing them to connect two centers of population that are culturally and physically (at least on a jersey level) two worlds apart

[SevenEleven]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

I don't think this is fair given Western Essex was linked to Middlesex, west Essex clearly belongs with Morris, I think Union+taking more of Middlesex in from 12 could work, but the current 6th does feel somewhat like a leftover seat, but I think Essex to Middlesex is just a bridge too far, Woodbridge and Livingston have very little in common.

Fair Map^TM

My main issue with this is what is either a tri or quad cut of Essex, and also I don't think a fair map would eliminate the Hispanic opportunity seat in Hudson County. Also the Passaic cut looks a bit unclean, I would leave Wayne with the West Milford seat, its more Clifton, Paterson, and Passaic that I would throw into the Bergen seat.

District 8 is majority Hispanic and 43.5% by CVAP. It does take a few thousand people out of Essex, but that's it.

[muon2]

Ocean is more NYC oriented though, while Burlington is clearly more in the Philly sphere of influence.

Plus there's a decent argument to be made that Eastern and Western South Jersey should be kept separate, since they have pretty different cultures and are separate by the remote and sparsely populated Pine Barrens.

I happen to think that while Mercer+Burlington is a decent pairing, so is Ocean+Burlington. There are arguments in favor of both so I don't have a strong preference for either. What I do there tends to be affected by other parts of the map. I used to hate the idea of Burlingocean as opposed to Mercerlington, but that was when I was more influenced by the likes of Stephen Wolf.
The Pine Barrens argument is also a double-edged sword if raised in objection to a Burlingocean district, because you could argue you are actually dividing the Pine Barrens into two neat districts - a northern one (the 3rd) and a southern one (the 2nd).

I'm with Sol on this one. The Census identifies commuting patterns and other economic connections when defining metro areas and their subdivisions. Ocean and Monmouth are part of the New Brunswick-Lakewood subdivision of the NYC metro. Burlington is part of the Camden subdivision of the Philly metro. Mercer is by itself in the Trenton-Princeton metro.

[Torie]

[Torie]

[lfromnj]

Gotta say I do like Middlesex finally getting a district

[SevenEleven]

Gotta say I do like Middlesex finally getting a district

Do you like my map?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Did a map:

[kwabbit]

It's quite hard to get a sense of where these districts stand, given that DRA only has the 2012/2016 mix. The district based in Somerset definitely voted for Biden in 2020. Anyway, this map would have a lot of competitive seats. Kim would probably take the Ocean/Burlington seat as he currently does. Van Drew would take the Southern seat. Kean might take the Somerset seat. The Northwestern seat would be a question mark. It would lean R, but it would winnable for Dems given the recent trends there.

The map could be construed as R friendly I guess, but Republicans would probably win 2-5 seats, so it is proportional, but it would be variable in its outcome.

[Brittain33]

That’s a pretty good mirror of the PA Supreme Court’s goal in putting a thumb on the scale for Democrats to ensure a more representative delegation. (This is not a negative comment.)

[kwabbit]

That’s a pretty good mirror of the PA Supreme Court’s goal in putting a thumb on the scale for Democrats to ensure a more representative delegation. (This is not a negative comment.)

I'm not a fan of that style of redistricting, though. I think the shape of the Mercer based district, which I drew as a route-1 district, accidentally served as a Dem vote sink . I think NJ just has a lot of competitive areas so small decisions matter more.

I think any fair draw of South Jersey would probably result in 1 safe D around Camden/ 1 safe R Shore seat/ two swings in Southern Shore and Burlington.

North Jersey is a different matter of course. Republicans were stretched thin when they had all of those 3 North Jersey seat, basically a dummymander. Now they have 3 seats that they lose pretty narrowly instead. There probably should  be at least one lean R seat in North Jersey. Right now there's not much of a difference between 1 R seat and 6 R seats in NJ. NJ's current map has some gerrymanders going both ways.

The breakdown of NJ should probably be 2R/3 Swing/7D as a baseline.

[kwabbit]

I threw a map that I thought the commission might actually end up drawing.

The idea is that they permit 3 GOP seats. NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew is a Norcross acolyte, so they will keep his district as is, allowing him to maintain his seat in most years. The second GOP seat is NJ-07. Kean came close in 2020, he has a seat on the commission, and Malinowski has run into trouble. They give Kean a GOP sink in Northern Jersey, taking Sussex, Warren, and red parts of Somerset, Morris, and into Union, where his home in Westfield lies. The third GOP seat is the traditional sink in Monmouth and Ocean,, snaking into Hamilton, where Chris Smith resides.

There are three minority seats. NJ-12 captures the minority-heavy areas along the Route 1 corridor. It is just over 50% non-White. Watson-Coleman would occupy this seat in most cases. NJ-10, held by Donald Payne, captures Black-heavy areas such as Newark and its immediate environs, as well as into Union and a snake into Jersey City. NJ-08, held by Albio Sires, captures Elizabeth, the Hispanic parts of Hudson and Essex. This is the ugliest district of the map.

NJ-03 captures almost all of Burlington and the less red parts of Ocean. If they keep Hamilton in Smith's district, which I think they might, there's not much opportunity to make this seat bluer, but Kim is quite strong and could continue winning.

NJ-11 captures much of Morris and Western Essex. It extends into Passaic to make it bluer. Sherrill should be able to keep the seat comfortably.

NJ-05 contains Bergen and the less Hispanic parts of Hudson. Gottheimer should be able to win easily in this district.

NJ-09, held by Bill Pascrell, becomes a lot less blue to shore up Gottheimer and Sherrill. Much of the area around his hometown of Paterson belongs to other district. It contains Paterson, northern Morris, and parts of Bergen. Should be safe regardless.

NJ-06 contains Eastern Middlesex and the Monmouth coast. Frank Pallone lives in Long Branch, thus the snake down the coast.

NJ-01 is centered around Camden and will be held by Donald Norcross.

Keeping incumbents in their districts really makes it difficult to make an aesthetically pleasing map. Watson-Coleman, Smith, and Kim live in neighboring towns essentially. Same with Pascrell, Sherrill, and Gottheimer. Maybe they won't consider this, upon which the map gets a lot simpler.

[Brittain33]

When I drew a North Jersey R vote sink for Kean that’s exactly what it looked like. I wonder if the commission would be willing to draw a district with that tendril into Westfield - it makes sense politically but it looks corrupt.

It’s been funny how over 25 years NJ-12 has made a full journey from Likely R to Dem vote sink protecting Republican incumbents to the north and south.

[beesley]

This would be my scenario according to my definition of fair. The election data is the 2012/16 composite. It has four Majority-Minority districts (6, 8, 9, 10) with 10 being Majority black. Malinowski, Pallone, Smith and Van Drew would be at the biggest risk on this map, and Pascrell and Gottheimer may have to primary against each other.

[Brittain33]

That’s a great map for COI. Your NJ-11 is a Dem vote sink but that’s not ridiculous in the service of a fair map.

What happens if you move Perth Amboy into the Hispanic district and move some of the more Democrat towns in the Middlesex county part of 5 into 6? If you put East Brunswick, Cranbury, East Windsor into NJ-6, it should make the district more Asian and potentially able to elect an Asian-American representative while making 5 safer for Republicans.

But I don’t know where you’d best make up the population in 5 without messing up 2 and 3.

[Mr.Phips]

I threw a map that I thought the commission might actually end up drawing.

The idea is that they permit 3 GOP seats. NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew is a Norcross acolyte, so they will keep his district as is, allowing him to maintain his seat in most years. The second GOP seat is NJ-07. Kean came close in 2020, he has a seat on the commission, and Malinowski has run into trouble. They give Kean a GOP sink in Northern Jersey, taking Sussex, Warren, and red parts of Somerset, Morris, and into Union, where his home in Westfield lies. The third GOP seat is the traditional sink in Monmouth and Ocean,, snaking into Hamilton, where Chris Smith resides.

There are three minority seats. NJ-12 captures the minority-heavy areas along the Route 1 corridor. It is just over 50% non-White. Watson-Coleman would occupy this seat in most cases. NJ-10, held by Donald Payne, captures Black-heavy areas such as Newark and its immediate environs, as well as into Union and a snake into Jersey City. NJ-08, held by Albio Sires, captures Elizabeth, the Hispanic parts of Hudson and Essex. This is the ugliest district of the map.

NJ-03 captures almost all of Burlington and the less red parts of Ocean. If they keep Hamilton in Smith's district, which I think they might, there's not much opportunity to make this seat bluer, but Kim is quite strong and could continue winning.

NJ-11 captures much of Morris and Western Essex. It extends into Passaic to make it bluer. Sherrill should be able to keep the seat comfortably.

NJ-05 contains Bergen and the less Hispanic parts of Hudson. Gottheimer should be able to win easily in this district.

NJ-09, held by Bill Pascrell, becomes a lot less blue to shore up Gottheimer and Sherrill. Much of the area around his hometown of Paterson belongs to other district. It contains Paterson, northern Morris, and parts of Bergen. Should be safe regardless.

NJ-06 contains Eastern Middlesex and the Monmouth coast. Frank Pallone lives in Long Branch, thus the snake down the coast.

NJ-01 is centered around Camden and will be held by Donald Norcross.

Keeping incumbents in their districts really makes it difficult to make an aesthetically pleasing map. Watson-Coleman, Smith, and Kim live in neighboring towns essentially. Same with Pascrell, Sherrill, and Gottheimer. Maybe they won't consider this, upon which the map gets a lot simpler.

I’m thinking something like this is what gets drawn, but potentially with Smith picking up a bit more Ocean from Kim and Kim getting a bit more of Mercer.