2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[jimrtex]

Question: say AL has two black seats drawn in 2020. In 2030, if the state drops to six seats, does it lose one of those black seats?

Possibly. If you lose a 7th district then the other districts have to be expanded by 17%.

Under the proposed demonstration maps the AL-7 and AL-2 are at 50.0x% BVAP (that is over 50%, but less than 50.1%. The surrounding districts are bleached to under 20% BVAP.

This suggests that as they went from 80% of the quota to 100% of quota they were running on fumes. They might have been around 60% at 80% of quota, and had to start adding 20% or 30% BVAP precincts just to stay barely above 17%.

So let's say that the fringe areas just outside are at 25%.

(quota x 50% + (quota/6 x 25%)) / quota x 7/6 = 43%.

But it will be worse because AL-2 and AL-7 will be short on population and need to be expanded even in a 7-district plan. (AL-7 was short about 53K in this cycle. As the legislature maintained the status quo, the BVAP declined from 60% to about 55%).

But it could be worse. In order for the demonstration plans to fit the two barely 50% BVAP districts in, they had to squeeze AL-1 across the state, south of the two two black districts. This includes water connectivity across Mobile Bay. To get enough population you are going to have to put Dothan and Mobile County in the same district.

So what happens if you extend it northward? It cuts directly into AL-2 and AL-7.

Or if you try to go around the eastern end, you are probably taking some black population. You can't include Macon County, and neither the Georgia or Mississippi legislature will look favorable at going through their states.

You could potentially sneak up through Montgomery, but them you going to have provide a corridor over the top to get to the eastern parts of the black belt.

If you add tentacles into Gadsden or Anniston or Talledega, or the Tennessee valley you are not being compact.

p.s. Did anyone notice that Huntsville is now the most populous city in Alabama? And but for that fact, and a couple hundred people, Montgomery came close to being the largest city and the capital.

[jimrtex]

If SCOTUS upholds the decision that most likely intimidates Louisiana Republicans into allowing a second black district too, which would be amazing.

Unlike AL, you can't draw two "compact" 50% BVAP CD's in LA, so no. Gingles does not trigger the drawing of a second black performing CD in LA.

Wrong. You can.

So it would appear as to the 50% element of the test, and we do have racially polarized voting, so that just leaves the compact element to litigate. 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8bfa1863-ed2e-466e-9d9f-90b35e656962

The demonstration districts had 50.0x% BVAP population (greater than 50% but less than 50.1% BVAP). The state notes that this requires inclusion of persons reporting two or more races, with one of them black.

They tried to make it look good by eliminating county splits except in Mobile, Montgomery, Jefferson, and Tuscaloosa counties. I suspect you will see quite careful selection of precincts in those cities.

In addition the demonstration maps showed that AL-1 (Mobile to Dothan) is connected by water only. Maybe they can get an ancestor of David Farragut to run.

Given that they titrated the BVAP to get the desired result, can it really be argued that they did not subordinate other redistricting criteria to race?

Remember that the Alabama legislative district map was overturned because the legislature was attempting to maintain the BVAP and went to extraordinary of splitting of precincts to do so.

Note one of the cases cited only statutory violations and thus did not require a three judge panel, and the appeal has to go through the 11th Circuit, and not to the SCOTUS. This case was filed by the Marc Elias gang.

The other cases with a three-judge panel also heard the case, but ruled only on the statutory claims (the single judge was also a member of the three-judge panel).

[jimrtex]

Can someone post an actual map that has two 50% BVAP CD's with what they think minimizes erosity?

I revised mine a bit to get rid of the neighborhood in the NW corner of NO that is almost all white with about 20K people or so.

The "contest" here is to draw a map that is easiest* on the judicial eyes that has two 50% VAP black CD's. The idea is to maximize the odds thata court that matters would find that both CD's were "compact."

I think the odds are low that it is possible to  draw such a map that gets the odds into more than between one and two standard deviations from the mean on the losing side, with me the handicapper, but absent actual maps, it is all ultimately meaningless foreplay for me to handicap at all. At least in my opinion!  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8bfa1863-ed2e-466e-9d9f-90b35e656962



*Job one of course to get even half way to first base with the wooing of your affection being to lose Shreveport as being part of the same zone of compactness as Baton Rouge.

You can have a very clean map in Louisiana if you simply segregate the electorates. Both the four-district white map and the two-district black map are quite simple to draw.

[Greedo punched first]

Which 5-2 map is better?

[Tintrlvr]

Which 5-2 map is better?

I would be inclined to prefer #2. However, I think the courts would prefer #1, or some other variant that does a little bit more to up the black percentage in the Birmingham seat.

[Del Tachi]

Which 5-2 map is better?

Both a pretty bad, IMO, but Map #2 has cleaner lines all round so I say that one.  Any thoughts on the map I did?

   

 

[jimrtex]

I suppose I’m asking why, all else being equal (not factoring in SCOTUS taking things in a different direction), the precedent in Virginia which led to creating a second district doesn’t apply to what looks like a similar situation in Louisiana. Virginia didn’t require two 50% BVAP districts as a prerequisite to unpack the district and draw two performing districts.

Or put another way, are you arguing that hypothetically the current Supreme Court would have overturned the lower court decision in Virginia from some years ago because their views are different from the old court’s.

In Virginia the court ruling was that the VA-3 was a racial gerrymander because it hopped back and forth across the James River, as it stretched down from Richmond to pick up areas hither and yon in Hampton Roads. The district jumped north to take part of Newport News, then jumped back into the river to swim downstream to Hampton, even though the cities are connected by land with continuous residential settlement. It then skipped across to take Portsmouth and parts of Norfolk.

I'm not sure that a Gingles area can be drawn in Virginia. You can get up over 50% BVAP in Portsmouth, Norfolk, Hampton, Newport News, though this might require dividing all of them. But then you have to go up to Richmond to get enough population for a district, and that may stretch the district. Do you bypass Petersburg, and start cutting out areas in Richmond and Hampton Roads to not have excessive population.

In Virginia they were content to keep VA-3 since the DOJ would give preclearance. It was only after Section 3 was eliminated, effectively ending preclearance that people started bringing Section complaints. They could have before, but the State would have argued, truthfully, that they were simply trying to placate the DOJ.

You can not assign students to a high school on the basis of race. You can not use other measures that have the same effect, such as attendance boundaries that tended to match racial residential patterns. You might not even be able to use a computer program that minimized bus routes if the schools were sited based on race.

The same logic applies to congressional districts. If you were a map drawer, you would be interrogate/deposed as to whether your mapping software had a racial display option and whether you used it. There would also be questioning as to whether you used a quota, and whether you used unusual techniques such as splitting election precincts.

[jimrtex]

Sigh. If a state wants to go the proportionality route like Ohio apparently for the state legislature, then like Ohio the state should pass a statute. I was sharing my opinion about abuse of process as it were by activist judges. Given how hideous the Illinois CD map is, if Illinois has an initiative process, the citizens should rise up and try to copycat the Ohio law, and spend 50 million promoting it. That should keep the Dems busy for awhile. But also I don't think Illinois has the citizen initiative process.

They do, unfortunately it only applies to certain parts of the Legislative Article, and you must make procedural and structural changes.

If you require proportionality, you also have to change the size of the legislature. And you have to collect all the signatures before Mike Madigan will tell Lisa Madigan to oppose the initiative and to have the courts block it. Illinois does have a periodic referendum on a constitutional convention - but those opposed will claim that those wanting the convention want to outlaw private property and/or reimpose slavery.

[Greedo punched first]

Which 5-2 map is better?

Both a pretty bad, IMO, but Map #2 has cleaner lines all round so I say that one.  Any thoughts on the map I did?

   

 

The Birmingham district could end up electing a Republican in low turnout midterms.

[Boobs]

Which 5-2 map is better?

Both a pretty bad, IMO, but Map #2 has cleaner lines all round so I say that one.  Any thoughts on the map I did?

   

 

Looks like sh**t

[Tintrlvr]

Which 5-2 map is better?

Both a pretty bad, IMO, but Map #2 has cleaner lines all round so I say that one.  Any thoughts on the map I did?

   

 

The Birmingham district could end up electing a Republican in low turnout midterms.

That was, of course, his intent. If you're doing a Birmingham district that doesn't split Jefferson County, there's really no justification to pairing Jefferson County with anything other than immediately adjacent parts of Shelby County that are continuous with the urban area.

The black belt district isn't awful on its own, though.

[lfromnj]

Which 5-2 map is better?

Both a pretty bad, IMO, but Map #2 has cleaner lines all round so I say that one.  Any thoughts on the map I did?

   

 

The Birmingham district could end up electing a Republican in low turnout midterms.

That was, of course, his intent. If you're doing a Birmingham district that doesn't split Jefferson County, there's really no justification to pairing Jefferson County with anything other than immediately adjacent parts of Shelby County that are continuous with the urban area.

The black belt district isn't awful on its own, though.

Del Tachi's district is Biden +9 by my estimate. If you do Shelby County instead of Bibb you get a Biden +9.5 district. It's bad for a Jefferson standpoint still but at the same time that area of Shelby is super high turnout in any election compared to a county like Bibb.

[Former President tack50]

Which 5-2 map is better?

Both a pretty bad, IMO, but Map #2 has cleaner lines all round so I say that one.  Any thoughts on the map I did?

   

 

Probably the best map I've seen so far

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which 5-2 map is better?

Both a pretty bad, IMO, but Map #2 has cleaner lines all round so I say that one.  Any thoughts on the map I did?

   

 

Probably the best map I've seen so far

I prefer ERM's Birmingham district, and DT's Black Belt district.

[Boobs]

An arm into Mobile: awful, ugly, horrendous, evil
An arm into Dothan: brilliant, amazing, perfect, deserving of fellatio

[Greedo punched first]

An arm into Mobile: awful, ugly, horrendous, evil
An arm into Dothan: brilliant, amazing, perfect, deserving of fellatio

Is that only because Mobile is Democratic and Dothan is Republican?

[BoiseBoy]

Federal judges won't stay ruling against Alabama congressional map as drafted

[Oryxslayer]

Federal judges won't stay ruling against Alabama congressional map as drafted

As expected. This is essentially a perfunctory move before the appeal can be sent to the Supremes.

[Greedo punched first]

Federal judges won't stay ruling against Alabama congressional map as drafted

As expected. This is essentially a perfunctory move before the appeal can be sent to the Supremes.

Which will allow a 7-0 map.

[Virginiá]

Which will allow a 7-0 map.

On what grounds? Throwing out the VRA?

You ought to elaborate on that kind of statement right off the bat, otherwise it looks more like you're just trolling.

[Greedo punched first]

Which will allow a 7-0 map.

On what grounds? Throwing out the VRA?

You ought to elaborate on that kind of statement right off the bat, otherwise it looks more like you're just trolling.

Correct.

[compucomp]

Which will allow a 7-0 map.

On what grounds? Throwing out the VRA?

You ought to elaborate on that kind of statement right off the bat, otherwise it looks more like you're just trolling.

Correct.

If this actually happens Marc Elias should be barred from working for any Democratic Party organization. This would go with Plessy v. Ferguson on the list of infamous test case self-owns.

[Tintrlvr]

An arm into Mobile: awful, ugly, horrendous, evil
An arm into Dothan: brilliant, amazing, perfect, deserving of fellatio

Obviously county lines are holy and sacred and reflect the otherwise unknowable will of an all-powerful God!

[Oryxslayer]

Federal judges won't stay ruling against Alabama congressional map as drafted

As expected. This is essentially a perfunctory move before the appeal can be sent to the Supremes.

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1487181262985039876?s=20&t=01NcCNU1n07RP5Qh...

The predictable followup. And now we wait.

[Greedo punched first]

Federal judges won't stay ruling against Alabama congressional map as drafted

As expected. This is essentially a perfunctory move before the appeal can be sent to the Supremes.

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1487181262985039876?s=20&t=01NcCNU1n07RP5Qh...

The predictable followup. And now we wait.

VRA gets thrown out and Alabama goes 7-0.