2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[ProgressiveModerate]

National CD map with Alabama added. If we also see redraws in states like LA, FL, even GA and SC the black belt gonna become much more substantial.

We'll also have to see how Rs deal with NC-01.

[The Mikado]

National CD map with Alabama added. If we also see redraws in states like LA, FL, even GA and SC the black belt gonna become much more substantial.

We'll also have to see how Rs deal with NC-01.

I know it's pointless to ask now given that there'll be even more map changes before the election, but on this map how many Biden districts and Trump districts?

[ProgressiveModerate]

National CD map with Alabama added. If we also see redraws in states like LA, FL, even GA and SC the black belt gonna become much more substantial.

We'll also have to see how Rs deal with NC-01.

I know it's pointless to ask now given that there'll be even more map changes before the election, but on this map how many Biden districts and Trump districts?

227 Biden to 208 Trump with the new AL map, however in reality it might be 226-209 because AZ-06 was basically a statistical tie; DRA says Biden narrowly won the district, but there are quite a few Biden-favorable precinct splits

[Oryxslayer]

National CD map with Alabama added. If we also see redraws in states like LA, FL, even GA and SC the black belt gonna become much more substantial.

We'll also have to see how Rs deal with NC-01.

I know it's pointless to ask now given that there'll be even more map changes before the election, but on this map how many Biden districts and Trump districts?

The maps drawn in 2021/2 had a 226/209 Biden/Trump split. This single remap makes it 227/208.

Assuming hypothetically, all litigation that can be resolved before 2024 goes in favor of the plaintiffs from here out (a BIIIIG assumption) and certain scenarios play out as expected, the breakdown would be as follows:

+1 Biden in Louisiana
+1 Biden in Florida
+1-2 Biden in Georgia (depends if the court has to appoint a master, and said mapper produces a product with the aim of settling the separate racial gerrymandering suit as well)
+1 Biden in South Carolina
+1 Biden in Utah
+1 Trump in New Mexico
+2 Biden in Wisconsin
+3 Trump in North Carolina
+0-1 Biden in New York (It's more about making Biden won seats much more Dem)

For a overall result of 231-204. If we are looking solely at partisanship, this is not an unfair distribution. Especially since district gains start increasing exponentially under FPTP with increasing margins of victory, look no further than current UK election modeling for such an example.

Of course that is not and should not be the goal, and is just something that naturally occurs when one ideally follows clearly laid out and community-focused principles. It presently is really only achieved through Blue states doing Dem favored things and Red states doing things that favor the GOP. I'm sure North Carolina African Americans will still be angry even though the rest of the Black Belt would be gaining appropriate representation. Nashville, Oklahoma City, the Willamette Valley, and downstate Illinois are still not treated fairly, even if they all net cancel each other out.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

New Mexico already upheld the maps

[Stuart98]

New Mexico already upheld the maps

That's being appealed to the state Supreme Court so it's not over yet, though I don't see the democratic appointed Supreme Court overturning it when the republican lower court already upheld it.

[Oryxslayer]

New Mexico already upheld the maps

That's being appealed to the state Supreme Court so it's not over yet, though I don't see the democratic appointed Supreme Court overturning it when the republican lower court already upheld it.

Like I said, a big assumption

[Skill and Chance]

New Mexico already upheld the maps

That's being appealed to the state Supreme Court so it's not over yet, though I don't see the democratic appointed Supreme Court overturning it when the republican lower court already upheld it.

Like I said, a big assumption

TBH I think the NC case going to SCOTUS spooked a lot of state supreme courts out of applying general equal protection language or the general principle of equity to impose redistricting standards.  Even though it didn't uphold ISL, it suggested SCOTUS could at some point declare that a state court has gone too far.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Question about the timeline of implementation. Is Barry Moore now representing the new 2nd? Or do the lines stay the same till January 2025?

[Oryxslayer]

Question about the timeline of implementation. Is Barry Moore now representing the new 2nd? Or do the lines stay the same till January 2025?

Stay the same of course. Same reason why it was arguably illegal for Nebraska to hold the special election for NE-01 under the new lines in 2022. You are elected to serve X constituents for Y term. De jure you can't changes things Mid session,  even though de facto those elected will often start doing community engagement and meetings with the constituents they intend to represent in the future.

Everyone elected under this term services those who elected them. In 2024, with primaries and general elections under new lines, those elected now service their new constituents.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I was curious about how much of the new AL-02's on paper competitiveness was due to absymal turnout, which seems to be a factor, but the patterns are... weird. Mobile and Macon, counties where a lot of the dem vote in district two will likely come from, had turnout around 1/3. But alot of counties that flipped from Dem-Rep recently (such as Maregno) had some of the best turnout in the state, however still less then half. Overall 2022 was on of the worst turnouts recently for the state.

I'm curious how turnout will change when there is an election democrats can win in the black belt of the state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was curious about how much of the new AL-02's on paper competitiveness was due to absymal turnout, which seems to be a factor, but the patterns are... weird. Mobile and Macon, counties where a lot of the dem vote in district two will likely come from, had turnout around 1/3. But alot of counties that flipped from Dem-Rep recently (such as Maregno) had some of the best turnout in the state, however still less then half. Overall 2022 was on of the worst turnouts recently for the state.

I'm curious how turnout will change when there is an election democrats can win in the black belt of the state.

Tbf that chart is a bit misleading because the few high turnout counties in AL-02 are also very low population rural counties. It seems like a large part of what went wrong for Ds in AL was urban black turnout in places like Mobile and Montgomery.

Also worth noting that region of rural black belt with the highest relative turnout in the state also swung the least against Dems in 2022. Montgomery County on the old hand swung 13 points against Dems in the Sen race for instance

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1748390655695466608?t=Bf5SBGmsnrwegv5me...

So you may have seen this show up and wonder: AL is over, what does this mean?

Well z the case that the Supreme Court heard and then got a remedial map imposed for last year was the PreliminaryInjunction, or PI. A PI by definition seeks to preempt the full legal trial because the facts are so obvious and definitive. Because the facts are as such, the thing bringing harm to the plaintiffs, in this case a map, is halted immediately to prevent further harm and corrected. Not all VRA cases ask for a PI, cause it could easily work against the plaintiffs. This is the same situation as Louisiana right now, except because the legislature is drawing a second AA seat. In both cases though,  they end up in the same place. Unless some new evidence comes to light, the granting of the PI de facto concludes the case, the full trial is in some ways just a formality.