2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[I’m not Stu]

6R-0D is an illegal racial gerrymander.

[I’m not Stu]

What would a fair VRA map look like?

[I’m not Stu]

While 6-0 would certainly get struck down, here's something that could work.  AL-2 is plurality black but only D+2.  Technically the black candidate of choice is likely to win, but this district could "fail" as a vra district in a low turnout midterm.  Plus, a lot cleaner than the current map.  This is a lot more likely to hold up in court than a blatant 6-0, particularly if a black candidate wins in 2022.  It's a compact district and could pass the gingles test.
1 R+18
2 D+2 (Clinton+4)
3 R+18
4 R+17
5 R+18
6 R+18

It might pass the Gingles test, but this Supreme Court will still not uphold such a map. Gingles isn’t the only test, or even the most recent case. Thomas and Gorsuch crossed over in the Virginia House of Delegates case last year. That map also has a decent chance of electing a white Democrat.

[I’m not Stu]

There are a dozen seats that are D+6; In the last 14 years, Republicans have represented maybe half of one (if we count the seat that Allen West won in 2010 as the predecessor to the current FL-22, which is questionable). It's not lean D.

FL-26......

Carlos Curbelo is a good example. He was able to win because he's more moderate. Lauren Boebert can't win in a D+6 district, but might win in R+6 CO-03.

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6dc30ccd-21ad-4b65-99a8-737520e47924

Here's my particularly vicious take on what a non-VRA map would look like.



AL-01: Trump 61-39
AL-02: Trump 63-37
AL-03: Trump 60-40
AL-04: Trump 62-38
AL-05: Trump 66-34
AL-06: Trump 64-36

Honestly, this looks like an Alabama map from the 1960s. Which makes sense, given the intention of the Dixiecrats back then and how they dovetail with modern Republican's desire to limit AA voting power. All of these districts are fairly trend-proof and even where they are not they are anchored by crimson red areas, especially in the north where the old AL-04 is split up to keep all seats at Trump 60 and above.

Absolutely no idea who would be the Congressman for the AL-06 as a resident.

Roy Moore (R-Gadsden).

[I’m not Stu]

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

[I’m not Stu]

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.

Why doesn't it make sense. How easy would it be to draw such a map. Is it easy to draw two compact districts that are at least 52% in CVAP?

[I’m not Stu]

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.

Why doesn't it make sense. How easy would it be to draw such a map. Is it easy to draw two compact districts that are at least 52% in CVAP?

No lol, you have to split Birmingham and Mobile.

Birmingham and Mobile are large cities. Large cities are easier to split.

[I’m not Stu]

D+2 with barely over 50% AA is illegal.

[I’m not Stu]

Ok, here is my best attempt at doing a map that fulfills all of the following:

1) Has a black VRA seat
2) Has a compact Birmingham seat
3) Does not split Mobile

It is just barely possible, though the result is rather ugly (and the VRA district is still somewhat marginal, though it should be "good enough")



AL-01: R+18
AL-02: D+5 (51% Black CVAP)
AL-03: R+21
AL-04: R+34
AL-05: R+18
AL-06: R+4

So yeah, I suppose a map like that is just barely possible. It is also extremely ugly, in particular the 2 tentacles in the green district. And they are necessary in order to take the black areas outside the black belt (or at least, the less white areas)

What’s wrong with splitting Mobile? Large cities are easier to split because of their size.

[I’m not Stu]

What does a fair map with a VRA district look like?

[I’m not Stu]

What does a fair map with a VRA district look like?

Same as the current one but Alabama 2 and 3 get mashed .

Does that mean those GOP districts become more Democratic? The current map is a GOP gerrymander.

[I’m not Stu]

Check out this Alabama map!



Partisan lean.

[I’m not Stu]

I tried this 7 district map. Birmingham is a majority-white Democratic leaning swing district. Montgomery-Mobile is the VRA seat. I used bridge connections for VRA compliance in Mobile. Would Terri Sewell stay in Birmingham on this map?

[I’m not Stu]

My VRA district is 56% BCVAP. On my map, Birmingham has a good chance of electing a white Democrat.

[I’m not Stu]

On a 7 district map, would Terri Sewell stay in Birmingham and run in the majority white swing district that leans Democratic, or would she take the Black Belt-Mobile district?

[I’m not Stu]

On a 7 district map, would Terri Sewell stay in Birmingham and run in the majority white swing district that leans Democratic, or would she take the Black Belt-Mobile district?

Neither because the Black-Belt Mobile district isn't happening.

You hope

Do you think Sewell would stay in Birmingham on my map or not?

[I’m not Stu]

I made a 6 district map.



Partisan composition.

[I’m not Stu]

To be honest, I would argue that under a strict reading of the "compactness" criteria; Alabama should not have a black district mandated. If you need to split Mobile or split Birmingham to get such a district, that is not a compact district

You do need to split Mobile or Birmingham to get a majority (not plurality) BCVAP district. A plurality BCVAP district is subject to lawsuits. The VRA districts on both my 6 and 7 district maps are D+10 in Cook PVI.

7 district map: AL-01: Mo Brooks, AL-02: Mike Rogers, AL-03: OPEN (Doug Jones?), AL-04: Robert Aderholt, AL-05: OPEN (Steven Reed?), AL-06: OPEN, AL-07: Jerry Carl/Barry Moore



6 district map: AL-01: Mo Brooks, AL-02: Robert Aderholt, AL-03: OPEN (Doug Jones?), AL-04: Mike Rogers, AL-05: OPEN (Steven Reed?), AL-06: Jerry Carl/Barry Moore

[I’m not Stu]

These districts are literally majority Black on CVAP without splitting Mobile or Birmingham:

7 districts:

6 districts:

Cook PVI? Is it more likely that Alabama gets 6 or 7?

[I’m not Stu]

These districts are literally majority Black on CVAP without splitting Mobile or Birmingham:

7 districts:

6 districts:

Cook PVI? Is it more likely that Alabama gets 6 or 7?

I didn't save the 7-district Black majority seat, but the 6-district seat is 55D-44R on the 2012-2016 average. I imagine the former is higher.

Don't know wrt: your second question.

Isn’t your 7 district map borderline illegal? Is it more likely the state stays at 7 or loses a seat?

[I’m not Stu]

Splitting Birmingham or Mobile is needed for a 55% BCVAP district.

[I’m not Stu]

Splitting Birmingham or Mobile is needed for a 55% BCVAP district.

Why does it have to hit that threshold? There are plenty of districts which are required under the VRA which don't have 55% BCVAP--and considering racial polarization in Alabama a district which is majority Black by CVAP will easily be able to elect the Black candidate of choice.

It doesn't have to. I just prefer it for good measure. I prefer a map with a VRA district and a swing district. What do your full maps of Alabama look like? What is the composite partisanship of each district?

My 6 district map partisanship.



My 7 district map partisanship.

[I’m not Stu]

[I’m not Stu]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

I still don’t understand why the Obama DOJ didn’t push for a 2nd VRA district here.

I don't know. Eric Holder is pushing for one now.