2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[I’m not Stu]

Did a quick map showing it's very easy making to majority minority seats in Alabama while keeping Mobile intact

https://davesredistricting.org/join/105bbfcb-85c2-4619-8304-acc18617aeb9

That Black Belt district looks odd. My map has fewer county splits and has both the Birmingham and Black Belt districts more Democratic than that Black Belt district.

I was mostly making it to show that you can create two minority seats without splitting up Mobile

It’s also possible to split Mobile and keep road connectivity.

[Adam Griffin]

Let's just go hog-wild and draw a BVAP district and two majority-white Biden districts!

CD-1: Biden +1.7; 55-33 White
CD-2: Biden +3.2; 57-34 White
CD-3: Biden +15.8; 51-42 Black
CD-4: Trump +62.1; 84-8 White
CD-5: Trump +53.4; 78-14 White
CD-6: Trump +50.9; 75-16 White
CD-7: Trump +33.0; 67-25 White

[_.]

My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

Would this be mandatory to do? I've always thought that splitting Mobile was a big no?

Yes, it is a big red line. The GOP would never willingly draw two AA seats. But it is the kind of red line easily crossed if a lawsuit forces two seats.

Damn bro does this mean you're saying that 5R - 2D is a realistic possibility?

And also speaking of which do we have that Dave Wasserman full-feature length article about the situation yet?

EDIT: I found it! Written by Dave Wasserman

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/09/it-time-rethink-hyper-minority-districts/620118/

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair congressional map of Alabama using the 2020 census results.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%.

89/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
41/100 on the Compactness Index
44/100 on County Splitting
100/100 on the Minority Representation index
4/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential election in Alabama.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

Every election in recent history including 2017 Senate: 5R to 2D


Essentially there are two majority-Black districts by Voting-Age population.

AL-4 that takes in Birmingham and the Northwestern Black Belt is 50.8% Black by Voting-Age population and 52.9% Black by total population. It voted for Biden by 25.1% (him getting 62.0% of the vote compared to Trump's 36.9%).

AL-2 takes in Northern Mobile, Montgomery, and the rest of the Black Belt is 50.2% Black by Voting-Age population and 52.3% Black by total population. It voted for Biden by a considerably smaller margin of 12.7% (him receiving 55.8% of the vote against Trump's 43.1%).

Everything else is pretty much just compactness, the most Republican of these districts being AL-6 in the Northeast, where Blacks make up 10.3% of the population and Biden got 20.1% of the vote last November. The most competitive of these districts in AL-7 in the Northwest. It contains Huntsville, Blacks make up 17.0% of the population, and Biden got 34.0% of the vote here last November.


Opinions?

[BoiseBoy]

Expect four map proposals on October 27.

https://yellowhammernews.com/state-sen-mcclendon-expect-proposed-redistricting-maps-released-to-public-on-october-27/

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Expect four map proposals on October 27.

https://yellowhammernews.com/state-sen-mcclendon-expect-proposed-redistricting-maps-released-to-public-on-october-27/

Here’s hoping the democrats fight for two black seats

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1451370751546863626?s=20

Does anyone think there will be a proposal with more than one AA seat? Signs point to hell no, but that's  what plaintiffs may argue. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Damn bro does this mean you're saying that 5R - 2D is a realistic possibility?

And also speaking of which do we have that Dave Wasserman full-feature length article about the situation yet?

EDIT: I found it! Written by Dave Wasserman

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/09/it-time-rethink-hyper-minority-districts/620118/

Good find! Thank you.

Expect four map proposals on October 27.

https://yellowhammernews.com/state-sen-mcclendon-expect-proposed-redistricting-maps-released-to-public-on-october-27/

Here’s hoping the democrats fight for two black seats

Agreed.

[_.]

The Democrats have an excellent case to make in court for two black seats as both seats can be compact and majority-African American by Voting-Age population. I very much hope they follow through and fight for it as long as they can

Though I gotta ask

Was this possible a decade ago or has there been considerable Black population growth in the right places in Alabama to only make this possible today?

Also, do you all think that they will be sustainable into the future? I know that the two majority-Black districts I drew in the map above have gotten blacker over the 2010s, but what do the 2020s have in store for Alabama African Americans?

Birmingham looks like an interesting place to watch

[BoiseBoy]

Proposed maps are here

Congressional


State Senate


State House

[Tintrlvr]

The Democrats have an excellent case to make in court for two black seats as both seats can be compact and majority-African American by Voting-Age population. I very much hope they follow through and fight for it as long as they can

Though I gotta ask

Was this possible a decade ago or has there been considerable Black population growth in the right places in Alabama to only make this possible today?

Also, do you all think that they will be sustainable into the future? I know that the two majority-Black districts I drew in the map above have gotten blacker over the 2010s, but what do the 2020s have in store for Alabama African Americans?

Birmingham looks like an interesting place to watch

It was possible in 2010 to draw two black-majority districts. It was discussed a lot whether the Obama admin would push for two seats and potentially sue Alabama under the VRA to force it to do so; however, the Obama admin (wrongly, I think) backed down and did not sue. Unfortunately, that means a suit by the DOJ now would be challenging because the obvious question is why the second seat wasn't required in 2010.

[OBD]

Let the games begin. Hopefully we have the balls to get AL to 5-2.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the draft CD plan feels like a least change map.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

the draft CD plan feels like a least change map.

I mean it is. But still don’t see why they don’t give Morgan and lauderdale to the forth to make a more compact map

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the draft CD plan feels like a least change map.

I mean it is. But still don’t see why they don’t give Morgan and lauderdale to the forth to make a more compact map

Could incumbent residencies be a factor?

[BoiseBoy]

Proposed districts by 2020 PRES data:


AL-01: R+28.3 (R+0.0 from old lines)
AL-02: R+29.4 (R+1.0 from old lines)
AL-03: R+34.0 (R+2.2 from old lines)
AL-04: R+63.4 (D+1.8 from old lines)
AL-05: R+27.0 (R+0.0 from old lines)
AL-06: R+29.9 (D+5.4 from old lines)
AL-07: D+32.1 (R+10.3 from old lines)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

the draft CD plan feels like a least change map.

I mean it is. But still don’t see why they don’t give Morgan and lauderdale to the forth to make a more compact map

Could incumbent residencies be a factor?

It doesn't seem to be.



The only "massive" changes on this map is Gadsden is now in Rogers's district and Blount County in Aderholt, and the Northern Alabama district is entirely retained

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the draft CD plan feels like a least change map.

I mean it is. But still don’t see why they don’t give Morgan and lauderdale to the forth to make a more compact map

Could incumbent residencies be a factor?

It doesn't seem to be.



The only "massive" changes on this map is Gadsden is now in Rogers's district and Blount County in Aderholt, and the Northern Alabama district is entirely retained

Interesting. I guess AL Rs just didn't put that much stock into compactness; perhaps they just asked the Congressmen in question and let them draw the map.

[Pericles]

Have they drawn a map where Doug Jones only won 1 district in 2017?

[Oryxslayer]

Have they drawn a map where Doug Jones only won 1 district in 2017?

Of Course they did, what did you think they didn't?

[David Hume]

The Democrats have an excellent case to make in court for two black seats as both seats can be compact and majority-African American by Voting-Age population. I very much hope they follow through and fight for it as long as they can

Though I gotta ask

Was this possible a decade ago or has there been considerable Black population growth in the right places in Alabama to only make this possible today?

Also, do you all think that they will be sustainable into the future? I know that the two majority-Black districts I drew in the map above have gotten blacker over the 2010s, but what do the 2020s have in store for Alabama African Americans?

Birmingham looks like an interesting place to watch

The chief judge William Pryor of 11 circuit will appoint the other two judges for this case. He is basically Alito. So you know the result of the case.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Have they drawn a map where Doug Jones only won 1 district in 2017?

Actually, if AL-6 is truly 5 points more Democratic, I'd say it's pretty likely Jones won that in 2017.

Also, why is AL-7 so much less Democratic here?  Did it have to expand into Republican territory due to being underpopulated?

[Oryxslayer]

Have they drawn a map where Doug Jones only won 1 district in 2017?

Actually, if AL-6 is truly 5 points more Democratic, I'd say it's pretty likely Jones won that in 2017.

Also, why is AL-7 so much less Democratic here?  Did it have to expand into Republican territory due to being underpopulated?

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1452709961503436806?s=20

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Have they drawn a map where Doug Jones only won 1 district in 2017?

Actually, if AL-6 is truly 5 points more Democratic, I'd say it's pretty likely Jones won that in 2017.

Also, why is AL-7 so much less Democratic here?  Did it have to expand into Republican territory due to being underpopulated?

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1452709961503436806?s=20

I guess that explains AL-4’s jankiness but that’s extremely uneeded

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

The new AL Congressional and State Leg maps has been signed by Gov Ivey.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/alabama/