2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[_.]

Updates anyone? Any chance of a push for a second Black district?

[Oryxslayer]

Updates anyone? Any chance of a push for a second Black district?

There's a second suit now from a group affiliated with Holder's organization, and this time it's a Section 2 suit.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly chances are AL doesn't get a 2nd black district; it's possible but pretty unlikely. Louisiana is a much better bet for that.

[Greedo punched first]

Biden received 59% in two districts on this map.

[Oryxslayer]

Preliminary injunction has been placed on Alabama Congressional maps based on Section 2 violations in preparation for the full opinion.

[BoiseBoy]

Preliminary injunction has been placed on Alabama Congressional maps based on section 2.

What does this mean? Is there actually a chance for a second black seat?

[Oryxslayer]

Preliminary injunction has been placed on Alabama Congressional maps based on section 2.

What does this mean? Is there actually a chance for a second black seat?

A PI means that the prosecution has provided substantial evidence that their case is sound and has a likely chance at victory - in this case before a 2-1 Trump/Clinton Appointee three-judge panel - and therefore preserves the status quo and prevents any changes to the litigated evidence (use of maps) until a full opinion. The prosecution must provide substantial proof that not preserving the status quo would harm the case - for example the defendant bulldozing a property being fought over - and therefore a hold is placed. In redistricting cases, it is used to formally make it known that filing deadlines and primaries may need to be pushed and changes would need to be made fast do to the slow process of a opinion.

That said, the Elias team are basically expecting a victory now here based on their twitter.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1485782620759900160

[Oryxslayer]

One can read the full PI here. (edited using link accessible to all)

That said the key points are in the intro:

[Sestak]

One can read the full PI here.

claims to need a Msft login; not sure if it's private or what. Which judges on the panel?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wait does this actually mean we could get a 5-2 Alabama.

Possibly a huge upset if true, though I imagine this isn’t the end of legal litigation

Notable how it was a uninaimous decision with 2 Trump judges siding with 2 black CDs. My guess is of this comes to fruition we end up with a Birmingham based CD that’s like 43% Black and a 50% black district that gets all the black communities outside Birmingham

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

One can read the full PI here.

claims to need a Msft login; not sure if it's private or what. Which judges on the panel?

2 trump appointees apparently

[Roll Roons]

Ok, this was a huge shock. So if it goes through, who gets the short straw?

[Pink Panther]

I wonder if the the ALGOP try to make the second black district competitive or not. But this almost came out of nowhere.

[Oryxslayer]

Wait does this actually mean we could get a 5-2 Alabama.

Possibly a huge upset if true, though I imagine this isn’t the end of legal litigation

Of course. This was a 3-0 decision before a 3 judge panel and if the defendants want to claim said panel was incorrect then they go straight to the Supremes. And they will appeal but very few appeals are actually met. Or course said Supreme court is partisan, but arguably this lower panel was even more so.

One can read the full PI here.

claims to need a Msft login; not sure if it's private or what. Which judges on the panel?

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1485787275216801795?s=20

Thats where I got the link, if you can't use it that's why I provided images.

I wonder if the the ALGOP try to make the second black district competitive or not. But this almost came out of nowhere.

If they do end up drawing it, I don't think they can - at least by the measures of the PI. the court references the RPV analysis provided by the prosecution (which found >50% needed in some areas) and the many hypothetical plans which therefore would give them clear baselines that would make any second seat probably at least as dem as GA-02. The Birmingham seat has some crossover votes so that stays safe even if the BVAP goes to 45%, and to get the Belt seat over 50% as ordered you basically need to link Mobile and Montgomery like in the hypothetical plans, which would be a really heavy lift for any other added GOP areas.

If it actually comes to it then freshman Jerry Carl probably just sees his seat get nuked and forced to run against Barry Moore.

[GALeftist]

WOW! I truly did not expect this one. THANK YOU DOUG JONES!

[Sestak]

For some reason the tweet link worked but the first one you posted here didnt.

In any case the three judges are:

Stanley Marcus (11th circuit senior judge from Florida, Clinton appointee)
Anna Manasco (N.D.Alabama, Trump)
Terry Moorer (S.D. Alabama, Trump)

[Minnesota Mike]

One can read the full PI here.

claims to need a Msft login; not sure if it's private or what. Which judges on the panel?

https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/2021-01-24-AL-Caster-PI-Order.pdf

No MSFT login.

[Tintrlvr]

Wait does this actually mean we could get a 5-2 Alabama.

Possibly a huge upset if true, though I imagine this isn’t the end of legal litigation

Notable how it was a uninaimous decision with 2 Trump judges siding with 2 black CDs. My guess is of this comes to fruition we end up with a Birmingham based CD that’s like 43% Black and a 50% black district that gets all the black communities outside Birmingham

Probably two possibilities, depending on whether the state legislature is willing to split Mobile or not and/or how much deference they give to keeping wealthy parts of the Birmingham metro out of a Democratic seat:

Version 1: https://davesredistricting.org/join/4063bb86-9185-4928-b286-0ed875493c96

No split Mobile, but wealthy Birmingham suburbs end up in a Birmingham-based Biden+10 seat (likely to be won by Terri Sewell, who lives in Birmingham). The plus for the Republicans, other than not splitting Mobile, is that the Birmingham seat is plausibly winnable for the Republicans though at D+5 it is a reach (but D-trending so might be a bit more R downballot; it likely voted narrowly for McCain in 2008 I think but D since then).

Version 2: https://davesredistricting.org/join/60232034-0043-4552-b614-5d4292268f37

Split Mobile, two safe Democratic black seats instead of one safe D and one likely D. The black population is higher in both black seats. Advantage for the Republicans is that they saved Shelby County from Birmingham but overall of course a worse result for them.

I think Version 1 is more likely but you never know, a lot may be determined by parochial concerns. They could also do something wacky that I haven't tried like run the Mobile seat up the west side of the state and try to fit the Dothan seat south of the Black Belt.

[BoiseBoy]

Not looking good for a successful appeal from the defendants:

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1485791353040740355?s=20

[Nyvin]

If SCOTUS upholds the decision that most likely intimidates Louisiana Republicans into allowing a second black district too, which would be amazing.

[Oryxslayer]

Wait does this actually mean we could get a 5-2 Alabama.

Possibly a huge upset if true, though I imagine this isn’t the end of legal litigation

Notable how it was a uninaimous decision with 2 Trump judges siding with 2 black CDs. My guess is of this comes to fruition we end up with a Birmingham based CD that’s like 43% Black and a 50% black district that gets all the black communities outside Birmingham

Probably two possibilities, depending on whether the state legislature is willing to split Mobile or not and/or how much deference they give to keeping wealthy parts of the Birmingham metro out of a Democratic seat:

Version 1: https://davesredistricting.org/join/4063bb86-9185-4928-b286-0ed875493c96

No split Mobile, but wealthy Birmingham suburbs end up in a Birmingham-based Biden+10 seat (likely to be won by Terri Sewell, who lives in Birmingham). The plus for the Republicans, other than not splitting Mobile, is that the Birmingham seat is plausibly winnable for the Republicans though at D+5 it is a reach (but D-trending so might be a bit more R downballot; it likely voted narrowly for McCain in 2008 I think but D since then).

Version 2: https://davesredistricting.org/join/60232034-0043-4552-b614-5d4292268f37

Split Mobile, two safe Democratic black seats instead of one safe D and one likely D. The black population is higher in both black seats. Advantage for the Republicans is that they saved Shelby County from Birmingham but overall of course a worse result for them.

I think Version 1 is more likely but you never know, a lot may be determined by parochial concerns. They could also do something wacky that I haven't tried like run the Mobile seat up the west side of the state and try to fit the Dothan seat south of the Black Belt.

Several things: the PI noted one hypothetical map did not pair incumbents - meaning nuking Jerry Carl in the Mobile belt seat - which might be a semblance of advice/guidance/expectation given say Gary Palmer and Hoover; a different suit alleged AL previously cut counties to an extraordinary degree so the legislature's initial congressional map tried to minimize them; and finally Alabama has demonstrated already a preference to how they would do said seat after having previously drawn a second AA seat on the BOE map with 8 districts.

This is what I drew up in November after looking at all the various potential issues, and while seats certainly could be more compact, I liked it then cause it was essentially a least-change map that cut the same number of counties as the legislature's plan, drew the belt seat, and compacted AL-03. There are plenty of ways to swap stuff around but I'm almost certain this will be the general contours if 5-2 happens.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

TWO FIVE! TWO FIVE! TWO FIVE!

[Nyvin]

These are on page 60 of the court order -



It's the example maps provided by the plaintiffs.

[Oryxslayer]

These are on page 60 of the court order -


It's the example maps provided by the plaintiffs.

Yep, like I noted, all the hypothetical maps do the belt Mobile-Montgomery seat. Now if the legislature does do a remap it likely resembles none of this in the other areas given their own priorities, but the M-M belt seat is all but the only option for AA seat 2.