Will New York City ever lose its status as most populous city in the US?

[President Johnson]

New York basically has been the most populous city in the United States for like 200 years and still ranks on top. Is there a chance within the next few decades that it could lose the title? I actually doubt since Los Angeles is not even half the size (8.8 million versus 3.8 million according to Wikipedia). More generally speaking, it's actually interesting there are just nine cities in the US with a population over one million. Even Germany has four, despite much less overall population.

[Sol]

The only thing which I think could potentially displace it in the medium term would be climate change. Maybe I'm optimistic, but I suspect NYC, at least Manhattan, is too essential to the machinery of present-day capital for sea level rise to have much of an impact. Much of the city is also more elevated than you might expect, so even in most projections the vast majority of the city is above water.

That said, it's worth noting that the portions of NYC most at risk from climate change are the low-lying areas around Jamaica Bay, which also are relatively disadvantaged socioeconomically and thus may not get an effective response from the powers that be. (Hopefully this will not actually be the case!).

Climate Change also does mean more variance/extreme weather, which means more frequent hurricanes in particular, but other plausible competitors to NYC have similarly threatening issues -- high temperature risks in the South and Midwest, hurricanes anywhere along the Atlantic or Gulf coasts, flooding in Chicago, fires on the west coast, etc. Everybody is going to have elevated risks of horrible natural disasters.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

It’s hard to anticipate some sort of shift in municipal boundaries that would result in Los Angeles proper having a larger population than NYC proper. It’s even harder to imagine changes in zoning policy in any other big city proper smaller than those two that would change the order of the Top 3-4 cities proper.

[wnwnwn]

They shoukd combine Loa Angeles and Inland Valley MSAs. I suppose that would pass New York MSA at some point.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Not in my lifetime, apart from a dramatic (and ridiculous) expansion of city limits from another city.

[Nyvin]

Los Angeles could be made into a combined City-County municipality.

[TDAS04]

Los Angeles could be made into a combined City-County municipality.

Or if NYC gets broken up, and each borough becomes its own city, or something like that.

Otherwise, no, it’s not happening any time soon.

[President Johnson]

Los Angeles could be made into a combined City-County municipality.

That at least would remove Los Angeles' weird actual borders.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah unless somewhere like LA greatly expands its borders probably not - no other city has the infrastructure to support the density NYC has.

[Skill and Chance]

It’s hard to anticipate some sort of shift in municipal boundaries that would result in Los Angeles proper having a larger population than NYC proper. It’s even harder to imagine changes in zoning policy in any other big city proper smaller than those two that would change the order of the Top 3-4 cities proper.

If Dems ever snag control in Texas, I could see them dramatically expanding the cities to include all the reasonably commutable suburbs under the same government, but that still wouldn't overtake NYC.  Even a City of Houston with all of Harris County would only get to 2nd place. 

[NYDem]

The only thing that I can see doing it before the end of the century is some sort of municipal consolidation (a la NYC 1898) in Los Angeles or maaaaybe somewhere in Texas depending on how the next several decades of population growth go.

[Minnesota Mike]

Can't say it won't lose it's status "ever" (hate questions phrased like this) but in the foreseeable future I don't see it barring a cataclysmic event.   

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Even Germany has four, despite much less overall population.

Germany seems to include much more of urban areas in cities. Los Angeles county alone has 88 cities.

[Del Tachi]

If you extrapolate 2020-2022, Phoenix would pass New York to be the largest city in the country by 2065

[Pres Mike]

It’s hard to anticipate some sort of shift in municipal boundaries that would result in Los Angeles proper having a larger population than NYC proper. It’s even harder to imagine changes in zoning policy in any other big city proper smaller than those two that would change the order of the Top 3-4 cities proper.

If Dems ever snag control in Texas, I could see them dramatically expanding the cities to include all the reasonably commutable suburbs under the same government, but that still wouldn't overtake NYC.  Even a City of Houston with all of Harris County would only get to 2nd place. 

Why would Democrats do that? Why would they care about controlling the suburbs under one roof?

[ProgressiveModerate]

It’s hard to anticipate some sort of shift in municipal boundaries that would result in Los Angeles proper having a larger population than NYC proper. It’s even harder to imagine changes in zoning policy in any other big city proper smaller than those two that would change the order of the Top 3-4 cities proper.

If Dems ever snag control in Texas, I could see them dramatically expanding the cities to include all the reasonably commutable suburbs under the same government, but that still wouldn't overtake NYC.  Even a City of Houston with all of Harris County would only get to 2nd place. 

Why would Democrats do that? Why would they care about controlling the suburbs under one roof?

Cause “big government” and helping to streamline things, simillar to the way Rs want to break apart certain states and cities so R areas have more influence.

In reality though city consolidation/annexation is pretty rare these days, and I highly doubt would be something seriously discussed.

[Pres Mike]

It’s hard to anticipate some sort of shift in municipal boundaries that would result in Los Angeles proper having a larger population than NYC proper. It’s even harder to imagine changes in zoning policy in any other big city proper smaller than those two that would change the order of the Top 3-4 cities proper.

If Dems ever snag control in Texas, I could see them dramatically expanding the cities to include all the reasonably commutable suburbs under the same government, but that still wouldn't overtake NYC.  Even a City of Houston with all of Harris County would only get to 2nd place. 

Why would Democrats do that? Why would they care about controlling the suburbs under one roof?

Cause “big government” and helping to streamline things, simillar to the way Rs want to break apart certain states and cities so R areas have more influence.

In reality though city consolidation/annexation is pretty rare these days, and I highly doubt would be something seriously discussed.

I wonder why no one tried that in Tennessee. One reason Memphis is such a cess pool is because of white flight moving all the wealth to the suburbs of Bartlett, Germantown, Millington, Collierville, Lakeland and Arlington (plus the areas in Mississippi and other counties like Tipton and Fayette)

The state hates Memphis. The City of Memphis and County of Shelby County aren't on good terms either