2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[EastAnglianLefty]

Alabama most likely loses a seat at the census, so it's probably worth creating a megathread for it.

By and large, it's not particularly interesting, as Democrats get the VRA districts and then you have to work pretty hard to get a seat that would have been competitive at any time this millennium, let alone now.

The major doubt (aside from whether it gets 6 or 7 districts) is whether the DoJ can force Alabama to draw a second VRA district. It's trivially simple to do this on a seven district map and I'm a little surprised there wasn't a fight over this last time round. It's a little trickier on a six district map, but here's an attempt:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/841318a9-c025-42ad-80fb-33bf61f34ce0

The 5th takes in Birmingham and the western end of the black belt, the new VRA district is the 6th which stretches from Mobile to Montgomery. Both are narrowly black majority (50.9% and 50.2% respectively) on 2016 numbers, but depending on what's happening with population changes in the Black Belt you might need messier lines to keep them that way.

This then puts two Republican representatives out of a job. The new congresscritter for the 2nd is probably out of a job (and likely would be even if there was only VRA seat) as their territory is split between Byrne, Rogers and the new VRA seat. The other victim is Gary Palmer, who is best relatively junior and in the wrong place, so his territory is divided up between Aderholt and Rogers. If Aderholt were to retire, it would be possible to keep Palmer's base together and combine it with most of Aderholt's district, but even then he'd be vulnerable to a regionally-based primary.

Thoughts?

[Oryxslayer]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think the argument for 2/6 Black seats is particularly strong. 2/7 was already not a slam dunk; it'd be rather unprecedented for a state to gain a black VRA seat, pushing the share of black seats above their share of the population, all while its losing a seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

[Sestak]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

Palmer and especially Aderholt have much more seniority vs freshman in the 2nd

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

Palmer and especially Aderholt have much more seniority vs freshman in the 2nd

Palmer's only been there since 2015. He's in fact the least senior GOPer in the delegation (Roby has won almost twice as many House elections as him), and he represents a seat that borders all but 2 of the other CDs, and has a central location, to boot.

[Oryxslayer]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

Implicit Rule 1 of gerrymandering is satisfying incumbents. This rule is so powerful it often sees parties give up on the maximum possible partisan map in exchange for satisfying their incumbents, be it via district partisanship, district race, or district shape. If someone needs to get cut, then you start with the person lacking tenure or state-level allies. This is what happened in Louisiana in 2010. Now, if someone from the rest of the state has made their plans known to the state GOP and wants to run statewide in 2022, that changes the math. For now though every GOP incumbent is not close to getting aged out and districts 1/2 will have the lowest tenure thanks to their new 2020 GOP reps. However, it is impossible to cut 1, so 2 is left with the short straw.

[Sestak]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

Palmer and especially Aderholt have much more seniority vs freshman in the 2nd

Palmer's only been there since 2015. He's in fact the least senior GOPer in the delegation (Roby has won almost twice as many House elections as him), and he represents a seat that borders all but 2 of the other CDs, and has a central location, to boot.

But Roby is retiring. And also I think her district bleeds population quite heavily?

[Yellowhammer]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

Palmer and especially Aderholt have much more seniority vs freshman in the 2nd

Palmer's only been there since 2015. He's in fact the least senior GOPer in the delegation (Roby has won almost twice as many House elections as him), and he represents a seat that borders all but 2 of the other CDs, and has a central location, to boot.

Palmer is very, very high up the ladder in GOP leadership though. His seat is also difficult to eliminate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

Palmer and especially Aderholt have much more seniority vs freshman in the 2nd

Palmer's only been there since 2015. He's in fact the least senior GOPer in the delegation (Roby has won almost twice as many House elections as him), and he represents a seat that borders all but 2 of the other CDs, and has a central location, to boot.

But Roby is retiring. And also I think her district bleeds population quite heavily?

Oh, she's retiring. I forgot about that.
In that case I agree completely.

[Oryxslayer]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

Palmer and especially Aderholt have much more seniority vs freshman in the 2nd

Palmer's only been there since 2015. He's in fact the least senior GOPer in the delegation (Roby has won almost twice as many House elections as him), and he represents a seat that borders all but 2 of the other CDs, and has a central location, to boot.

But Roby is retiring. And also I think her district bleeds population quite heavily?

Oh, she's retiring. I forgot about that.
In that case I agree completely.

Yes there are GOP runoffs for those seats right now to succeed Byrne and Roby, runoffs set to occur concurrent with the Senate runoff...sometime

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7792c0c-84fb-41ca-a9c5-1278f4a0d93c
this is a map I constructed while being under the belief the 6th was going to be chopped.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The 2nd actually looks pretty difficult to cut if you're keeping pretty much the same lines for the VRA district. If the VRA district has to stretch from Birmingham to Montgomery via the western border of the state, then the Mobile district can't get into SE Alabama. Assuming that geography forces the 5th to remain much as it now is, the most natural map has Rogers' seat being carved up between either Aderholt, Palmer and the new 2nd district congresscritter, or just between Aderholt and the new rep.

Something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1c06c492-90b1-4e2e-8915-909ced77747e

Obviously, there's no necessary reason you need to pack the VRA district as much as it currently is, because none of the Republican seats are close to competitive, but Alabama is going to Alabama.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Something I notice - the Huntsville seat has to move south, which forces the rural Alabama seat south into Palmer's territory, unless it takes Anniston, which is Rogers' home base.
AL-07 and AL-04 (or whatever its successor is, in terms of territory) might share a long border.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Unexpected consequences of AL-02 being eliminated - the black seat has to move south and give up territory in JeffCo, which will mostly go into Palmer's district. Palmer's seat is going to take a Cook PVI hit
https://davesredistricting.org/join/d0310bcc-d5e0-44ec-876c-1d5abb8ab3cb

[voice_of_resistance]

If they axe AL-02 and AL-06 retakes some black precincts of Birmingham, it'll go from being R+26 to R+20. Not much, except Jones may have won it in 2017. The fairest map would have a JeffCo district, as well as a Black Belt district, but the AA population would get very low on both.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If they axe AL-02 and AL-06 retakes some black precincts of Birmingham, it'll go from being R+26 to R+20. Not much, except Jones may have won it in 2017. The fairest map would have a JeffCo district, as well as a Black Belt district, but the AA population would get very low on both.

I think a Black belt+Montgomery CD would be in the clear, as long as it avoided 85% white counties for the most part.

[voice_of_resistance]

This is my take on what a fair map would be.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/90d473e9-c12d-4317-a891-fe50e3d4b4af

The black belt district is 56% black, and the JeffCo-Tuscaloosa district is 52% white and 42% black, but JeffCo whites are less racially polarized and are more liberal than other AL white voters.

[Storr]

Unexpected consequences of AL-02 being eliminated - the black seat has to move south and give up territory in JeffCo, which will mostly go into Palmer's district. Palmer's seat is going to take a Cook PVI hit
https://davesredistricting.org/join/d0310bcc-d5e0-44ec-876c-1d5abb8ab3cb

The AL GOP will probably something like your map, make one currently Titanium R seat at least somewhat more competitive. In this map, Palmer's district would continue to be the white Birmingham suburbs seat, just with more blacks, going from ~15% of the population of the district currently to ~20% in your map. So unless wealthy suburban Birmingham whites start voting Democratic in droves, this would be a Safe 5R-1D map. Though interestingly, even in its current form, Palmer's district has voted slightly less Republican and more Democratic in each of the last four Presidential elections.
 
R: 2004: 78% 2008: 76% 2012: 74% 2016: 71%
D: 2004: 22% 2008: 23% 2012: 25% 2016: 26%

Probably not enough of a shift to make it competitive, even with new JeffCo territory as in this map, but an interesting pattern nonetheless.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Unexpected consequences of AL-02 being eliminated - the black seat has to move south and give up territory in JeffCo, which will mostly go into Palmer's district. Palmer's seat is going to take a Cook PVI hit
https://davesredistricting.org/join/d0310bcc-d5e0-44ec-876c-1d5abb8ab3cb

The AL GOP will probably something like your map, make one currently Titanium R seat at least somewhat more competitive. In this map, Palmer's district would continue to be the white Birmingham suburbs seat, just with more blacks, going from ~15% of the population of the district currently to ~20% in your map. So unless wealthy suburban Birmingham whites start voting Democratic in droves, this would be a Safe 5R-1D map. Though interestingly, even in its current form, Palmer's district has voted slightly less Republican and more Democratic in each of the last four Presidential elections.
 
R: 2004: 78% 2008: 76% 2012: 74% 2016: 71%
D: 2004: 22% 2008: 23% 2012: 25% 2016: 26%

Probably not enough of a shift to make it competitive, even with new JeffCo territory as in this map, but an interesting pattern nonetheless.

JeffCo's D trend is reflected in Palmer's district, despite the fact it has tons of other areas in it and Palmer's district doesn't have all of JeffCo in it, not remotely.
IIRC JeffCo has swung D in every election since 2004.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8bd3f8cf-496d-4a3a-a137-d2cc46ad38e2
AL fair map with 6 seats.
the black seat takes in many 20-30% white rural counties to its south, north and east. It remains firmly pro-D at D+5. AL-02 is eliminated and its district number is taken by AL-03, which now runs all the way down to Florida. JeffCo, needing to cede some black areas and short of the population needed for a seat regardless, is paired with rurals to its northeast. Huntsville seat expands. A "white sink" is formed taking in lily-white burbs of Montgomery and Birmingham, but it runs as far north as Marshall County.
Overall 1 Solid D, 4 Solid R, and 1 Lean/Likely R.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's the map I made a year ago (so no T/C numbers) for Alabama.  Southern Speaker's map turned out similar. District 2 clearly gets the axe. The AA seat has even more AA voters than the present seat. Brooks gets more of the Huntsville media market and Aderholt gets more of his base in the NW corner. A NW oriented would have had the 2010 republicans scared about a 90s era dixiecratic revival, but now it is a clear GOP base thanks to the lock-step conversion of Greater Appalachia to the Republican party. Rogers would get the R-R incumbent primary, but there is more of his base in the new seat than the old 2nd.

[Sol]

This is my take on what a fair map would be.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/90d473e9-c12d-4317-a891-fe50e3d4b4af

The black belt district is 56% black, and the JeffCo-Tuscaloosa district is 52% white and 42% black, but JeffCo whites are less racially polarized and are more liberal than other AL white voters.

As far as a fair map goes, I don't know if it makes much since to dip into Mobile instead of Birmingham, particularly since the rest of Mobile has iffy connections to the other parts of AL-01.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This is my take on what a fair map would be.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/90d473e9-c12d-4317-a891-fe50e3d4b4af

The black belt district is 56% black, and the JeffCo-Tuscaloosa district is 52% white and 42% black, but JeffCo whites are less racially polarized and are more liberal than other AL white voters.

As far as a fair map goes, I don't know if it makes much since to dip into Mobile instead of Birmingham, particularly since the rest of Mobile has iffy connections to the other parts of AL-01.

Perhaps it could take in Tuscaloosa instead and allow AL-06 to dip into Shelby.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is my take on what a fair map would be.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/90d473e9-c12d-4317-a891-fe50e3d4b4af

The black belt district is 56% black, and the JeffCo-Tuscaloosa district is 52% white and 42% black, but JeffCo whites are less racially polarized and are more liberal than other AL white voters.

As far as a fair map goes, I don't know if it makes much since to dip into Mobile instead of Birmingham, particularly since the rest of Mobile has iffy connections to the other parts of AL-01.

Perhaps it could take in Tuscaloosa instead and allow AL-06 to dip into Shelby.

The numbers make it hard for Tuscaloosa to be kept out of the black seat either way.