2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think the argument for 2/6 Black seats is particularly strong. 2/7 was already not a slam dunk; it'd be rather unprecedented for a state to gain a black VRA seat, pushing the share of black seats above their share of the population, all while its losing a seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

Palmer and especially Aderholt have much more seniority vs freshman in the 2nd

Palmer's only been there since 2015. He's in fact the least senior GOPer in the delegation (Roby has won almost twice as many House elections as him), and he represents a seat that borders all but 2 of the other CDs, and has a central location, to boot.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

Palmer and especially Aderholt have much more seniority vs freshman in the 2nd

Palmer's only been there since 2015. He's in fact the least senior GOPer in the delegation (Roby has won almost twice as many House elections as him), and he represents a seat that borders all but 2 of the other CDs, and has a central location, to boot.

But Roby is retiring. And also I think her district bleeds population quite heavily?

Oh, she's retiring. I forgot about that.
In that case I agree completely.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7792c0c-84fb-41ca-a9c5-1278f4a0d93c
this is a map I constructed while being under the belief the 6th was going to be chopped.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Something I notice - the Huntsville seat has to move south, which forces the rural Alabama seat south into Palmer's territory, unless it takes Anniston, which is Rogers' home base.
AL-07 and AL-04 (or whatever its successor is, in terms of territory) might share a long border.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Unexpected consequences of AL-02 being eliminated - the black seat has to move south and give up territory in JeffCo, which will mostly go into Palmer's district. Palmer's seat is going to take a Cook PVI hit
https://davesredistricting.org/join/d0310bcc-d5e0-44ec-876c-1d5abb8ab3cb

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If they axe AL-02 and AL-06 retakes some black precincts of Birmingham, it'll go from being R+26 to R+20. Not much, except Jones may have won it in 2017. The fairest map would have a JeffCo district, as well as a Black Belt district, but the AA population would get very low on both.

I think a Black belt+Montgomery CD would be in the clear, as long as it avoided 85% white counties for the most part.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Unexpected consequences of AL-02 being eliminated - the black seat has to move south and give up territory in JeffCo, which will mostly go into Palmer's district. Palmer's seat is going to take a Cook PVI hit
https://davesredistricting.org/join/d0310bcc-d5e0-44ec-876c-1d5abb8ab3cb

The AL GOP will probably something like your map, make one currently Titanium R seat at least somewhat more competitive. In this map, Palmer's district would continue to be the white Birmingham suburbs seat, just with more blacks, going from ~15% of the population of the district currently to ~20% in your map. So unless wealthy suburban Birmingham whites start voting Democratic in droves, this would be a Safe 5R-1D map. Though interestingly, even in its current form, Palmer's district has voted slightly less Republican and more Democratic in each of the last four Presidential elections.
 
R: 2004: 78% 2008: 76% 2012: 74% 2016: 71%
D: 2004: 22% 2008: 23% 2012: 25% 2016: 26%

Probably not enough of a shift to make it competitive, even with new JeffCo territory as in this map, but an interesting pattern nonetheless.

JeffCo's D trend is reflected in Palmer's district, despite the fact it has tons of other areas in it and Palmer's district doesn't have all of JeffCo in it, not remotely.
IIRC JeffCo has swung D in every election since 2004.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8bd3f8cf-496d-4a3a-a137-d2cc46ad38e2
AL fair map with 6 seats.
the black seat takes in many 20-30% white rural counties to its south, north and east. It remains firmly pro-D at D+5. AL-02 is eliminated and its district number is taken by AL-03, which now runs all the way down to Florida. JeffCo, needing to cede some black areas and short of the population needed for a seat regardless, is paired with rurals to its northeast. Huntsville seat expands. A "white sink" is formed taking in lily-white burbs of Montgomery and Birmingham, but it runs as far north as Marshall County.
Overall 1 Solid D, 4 Solid R, and 1 Lean/Likely R.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is my take on what a fair map would be.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/90d473e9-c12d-4317-a891-fe50e3d4b4af

The black belt district is 56% black, and the JeffCo-Tuscaloosa district is 52% white and 42% black, but JeffCo whites are less racially polarized and are more liberal than other AL white voters.

As far as a fair map goes, I don't know if it makes much since to dip into Mobile instead of Birmingham, particularly since the rest of Mobile has iffy connections to the other parts of AL-01.

Perhaps it could take in Tuscaloosa instead and allow AL-06 to dip into Shelby.

The numbers make it hard for Tuscaloosa to be kept out of the black seat either way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

AL-07 still isn't safe. With DC statehood, #435 gets cut

If it happens after apportionment, they'd wait till 2030.

Perfectly possible that AL-07 doesn't happen regardless. Maybe a fluke happens and one state gets another seat, which in turn narrowly edges out Alabama.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

AL-07 still isn't safe. With DC statehood, #435 gets cut

It's not a given congress will keep the number of representatives at 435 when adding states. Might be political incentives to increase it.

Good point.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Road connectivity is hardly a hurdle to 2 VRA seats. Just take the bare minimum of precincts along the city shoreline.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Even with 6 seats, it is possible to draw 2 Dem districts - even without splitting Mobile.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/3935470e-4f7f-44ee-aec7-0d913809fe45

And here's a 7 seat map on a similiar concept.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e7a07ee-8cf0-4d10-8926-50be3efcbfeb

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Even with 6 seats, it is possible to draw 2 Dem districts - even without splitting Mobile.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/3935470e-4f7f-44ee-aec7-0d913809fe45

And here's a 7 seat map on a similiar concept.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e7a07ee-8cf0-4d10-8926-50be3efcbfeb

Both of  your CD's are below 50% BCVAP, which is where the heavy lifting is, to get over that.
But I notice that while you are using 2018 population numbers, you are using 2010 VAP numbers. You might switch to 2018 VAP numbers on the DRA to see if that gets both of your CD's over the 50% BCVAP hurdle. If not, no cigar unless the census numbers, or to put it more accurately, whatever algorithm will be used by the courts to estimate such numbers, gets you over the top, or the VRA law further evolves.

I don't care about BCVAP, personally. Districts like NC-01 never had an absolute need to be majority black CVAP anyway (I'm aware that what can be done to individual districts can vary quite a bit depending on specific case law). I agree that VAP can be of validity, but CVAP is no cigar for me.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooper_v._Harris

The 5-3 decision included 4 Liberal justices+ Thomas due to his extreme consistency when it comes to VRA stuff. GL getting his vote when you want to go from changing an ugly compact gerrymander to a more compact map  to changing a fairly compact district and natural COI,(AL 1st) to a split district. Maybe Ds can cancel the weird arm in AL01 but thats about it and its merely a few thousand people in that weird part.

Do you think Thomas would accept a district placing at least the lion's share of Mobile County in AL-01?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ben Erdreich is still alive and will be 83 on Election Day next year if he wants to make a comeback in AL-6.

This comment wound up inspiring me to remake the 1980s borders for Alabama's CDs.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e7ed31d6-3fd9-49ea-b066-ef87c1075aee
This is what I came up with.
Comes to show just how much rural AL has changed over the past 30 years.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Alabama map I've made.
Only one county split that is avoidable, and avoiding it would make the map horridly uncompact.
AL-07 remains a performing Black CD, and the Birmingham district is 38% black, essentially a minority opportunity CD.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/246fd6c9-2584-4d08-ad88-c9904115d146

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

2020 census data.

60 compactness rating. 80 splitting rating.

Not bad.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

Would this be mandatory to do? I've always thought that splitting Mobile was a big no?

Yes, it is a big red line. The GOP would never willingly draw two AA seats. But it is the kind of red line easily crossed if a lawsuit forces two seats.

This might be my biases speaking, but isn't there a difference between simply splitting Mobile and doing so in a way that forces the 1st to rely on water contiguity?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

Would this be mandatory to do? I've always thought that splitting Mobile was a big no?

Yes, it is a big red line. The GOP would never willingly draw two AA seats. But it is the kind of red line easily crossed if a lawsuit forces two seats.

This might be my biases speaking, but isn't there a difference between simply splitting Mobile and doing so in a way that forces the 1st to rely on water contiguity?

I'm sure it's not any more of an inherent issue than dealing with the Delmarva Peninsula for VA, the Kentucky Bend for KY, or most of Southern LA at this point. Point contiguity and/or adjacent precincts - regardless of what is between them - should be able to pass muster. Besides, I'm sure there's probably an alternative that can be drawn either to give all the bay-adjacent Mobile precincts to non-BVAP districts and/or split those precincts to avoid exclusive water contiguity (after all, I highly doubt there are large black-majority populations living on the beaches in Mobile).

There is also a third option - all of Mobile County being placed in a black district with a very significant black plurality, turning AL-01 into a black district. But that is both less likely to be forced by the courts, and the least popular option with AL GOPers if I had to guess.
This is what that might look like

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Damn bro does this mean you're saying that 5R - 2D is a realistic possibility?

And also speaking of which do we have that Dave Wasserman full-feature length article about the situation yet?

EDIT: I found it! Written by Dave Wasserman

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/09/it-time-rethink-hyper-minority-districts/620118/

Good find! Thank you.

Expect four map proposals on October 27.

https://yellowhammernews.com/state-sen-mcclendon-expect-proposed-redistricting-maps-released-to-public-on-october-27/

Here’s hoping the democrats fight for two black seats

Agreed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the draft CD plan feels like a least change map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the draft CD plan feels like a least change map.

I mean it is. But still don’t see why they don’t give Morgan and lauderdale to the forth to make a more compact map

Could incumbent residencies be a factor?