2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[lfromnj]

Again Mobile +Baldwin is almost 3/4 of a district there is 0 reason to split it up with an arm to reach into to gerrymander for Democrats

[lfromnj]

I mean Yh you can still clearly draw a D leaning district in the black belt in a 6 0 map. And the black belt +Montgomery is a very VALID COI

[lfromnj]

Yeah, a pure 6-0 map would be an R gerrymander regardless. Not a particularly hard or ugly gerrymander, but still one. A fair non-VRA map for Alabama would probably look something like this?



AL-01: R+16 (35D-65R composite 2012-2016)
AL-02: R+3, 44% black (49D-51R composite 2012-2016)
AL-03: R+16 (36D-64R composite 2012-2016)
AL-04: R+31 (21D-79R composite 2012-2016)
AL-05: R+19, (33D-67R composite 2012-2016)
AL-06: R+4, 38% black, (47D-53R composite 2012-2016)

So basically you get a map that is 4 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 1 tossup/tilt R?

I wonder how many seats would Dems have won in 2018 under this map; District 2 in particular must be extremely polarized and inelastic. Plus I am sure you could easily move district 2 from tilt R to tilt D just by swapping a few places around; or to make the 6th easier for Dems to win by taking another of the suburban counties?

Hmm my guess is that 2 could be won by Walt Maddox(mayor of Tuscaloosa if he ran). Other wise probably doesn't flip.
6 looks like a trump +4 ish district as Jefferson county swung D and so did Shelby where you removed the most exurban precints which may have swung R actually. Considering its relative depolarized voting for Alabama it could flip, Doug Jones if isn't AG in 2022 would be an almost certain lock for this seat.

[lfromnj]

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.

[lfromnj]

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.

Why doesn't it make sense. How easy would it be to draw such a map. Is it easy to draw two compact districts that are at least 52% in CVAP?

No lol, you have to split Birmingham and Mobile.

[lfromnj]

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.

Why doesn't it make sense. How easy would it be to draw such a map. Is it easy to draw two compact districts that are at least 52% in CVAP?

No lol, you have to split Birmingham and Mobile.

Birmingham and Mobile are large cities. Large cities are easier to split.

Yet both areas have a metro that mostly form 1 district.

[lfromnj]

Infact as me and tack showed It isn't really possible for a reasonable compact map to have 1 VRA seat. However a VRA seat is still required in Alabama but its absurd to call an arm into Birmingham a gerrymander but then demand it should go into Mobile.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, unfortunately the result of Alabama losing a seat is that splitting Birmingham becomes required in any fair map. Splitting Mobile is obviously way worse due to the water connection issues.

Well by fair as in VRA compliant map you mean right?

[lfromnj]

Yeah, unfortunately the result of Alabama losing a seat is that splitting Birmingham becomes required in any fair map. Splitting Mobile is obviously way worse due to the water connection issues.

Well by fair as in VRA compliant map you mean right?

Yeah. Though also fair just in the general sense as well.

as in equal partisanship you mean while still respecting COI's?  although at that point you basically get into the what about Massachusetts arguments?)

 For example this is basically the reverse of taking a dip into Mobile/ Birmingham with scooping Worcester out from its suburbs to create a swingy central MA district. I obviously disagree with this as Worchester belongs with its region rather than a more Boston Suburban district.

Btw not saying anything about you, just having a discussion. Your maps are generally over all balanced, like your GA Map IIRC is slightly D tilting IMO but your Michigan map was very R leaning due to how you follow the VRA.

[lfromnj]

It's not so much the partisan balance part which is important to me; I think the issue is more that in a society as racially polarized as Alabama, making sure that the 25% or so of Black Alabamians have representation is important, particularly since there's a pretty strong history and present of racist oppression. Drawing a 4R 2D map where the two Democratic districts are potentially winnable by Republicans runs the risk of shutting Black Alabamians out of government.

Ofc the ideal electoral solution IMO is PR, but since that isn't too plausible rn I think VRA districts are necessary.

Fair enough, I do agree the VRA probably does atleast extend here, I just don't like cases of the VRA where stuff like FL 5th happens or CA VRA rules. Obviously expanding the house could also help.

[lfromnj]

What does a fair map with a VRA district look like?

Same as the current one but Alabama 2 and 3 get mashed .

[lfromnj]

It's a no-win for the GOP on whether AL loses a district. If it does, the GOP will have to cut one of their own districts. If not, Democrats can make the case for a second VRA district, though whether the lawsuit suceeds is an open question.

Yes because splitting Mobile in half is totally going to fly by Thomas or the 11th circuit.

[lfromnj]

Its not hyperpartisan to argue against a split of the Mobile area.. Its literally D partisan hackishness to demand the split of region so they can get another congressional seat in Alabama. There is 0 chance for it in the current Alabama district  courts/11th circuit/SCOTUS . And so far recent court precedence at SCOTUS has taken more of a liking for actual communities when forming VRA districts which is why VA03 and NC12 were cancelled.

[lfromnj]

Its not hyperpartisan to argue against a split of the Mobile area.. Its literally D partisan hackishness to demand the split of region so they can get another congressional seat in Alabama. There is 0 chance for it in the current Alabama district  courts/11th circuit/SCOTUS . And so far recent court precedence at SCOTUS has taken more of a liking for actual communities when forming VRA districts which is why VA03 and NC12 were cancelled.

It's absolutely hyper-partisan to argue that a seven seat Alabama map where you can easily create two Majority-Minority districts with over 50% AA CVAP should only have one majority-minority district b/c you think it would likely lead to Republicans losing a seat.  NC-12 and VA-3 were drawn as racial gerrymanders designed to dilute minority representation.  For example, VA-3 being canceled led to two AA districts in VA.  IIRC, NC-12 was also scrapped b/c it was designed as a racial gerrymander to dilute minority representation (if memory serves, there were even e-mails from a GOP redistricting operative indicating this was the case in NC, but I could be mistaken).  

There's no real argument against drawing two majority-minority seats if Alabama keeps its 7th district other than "racial gerrymanders are okay as long as it helps the Republican Party politically."  I mean, if you think the Justices on the pertinent Courts are so partisan that they'll subscribe to that view then fair enough, I suppose.  But let's not pretend this is about anything other than Republican partisanship.

NC12/VA03 aren't 2010 Racial Gerrymanders. They are leftovers/vestiges from Bush/Barr 1990 lawsuits working with Southern black Democrats to increase Black and Republican representation within the South by streching the VRA.. NC Democrats drew the same NC 12 in 2002 to 2010 and the 1990s. The GOP drew NC 12 like that because it was precedent, there isn't any need to put part of a sink with the Greensboro area because the surrounding area has always been very Republican. VA03 did give the GOP a definite partisan advantage however. Either way with SCOTUS cancelling districts that connected Charlotte and Greensboro or Richmond and the Hampton Roads they certainly aren't going to start demanding the Mobile area be split. The same goes in Louisiana, a 2nd VRA district is also very unlikely there. Instead expect a fair map in Louisiana that focuses on a  Lean to Likely R district based in Baton Rouge.

Ironically the old NC Map would have been better for NC Democrats in 2018 with them certainly flipping NC09 and probably flipping NC02 as both of them voted for Biden !.

[lfromnj]

Its not hyperpartisan to argue against a split of the Mobile area.. Its literally D partisan hackishness to demand the split of region so they can get another congressional seat in Alabama. There is 0 chance for it in the current Alabama district  courts/11th circuit/SCOTUS . And so far recent court precedence at SCOTUS has taken more of a liking for actual communities when forming VRA districts which is why VA03 and NC12 were cancelled.

It's absolutely hyper-partisan to argue that a seven seat Alabama map where you can easily create two Majority-Minority districts with over 50% AA CVAP should only have one majority-minority district b/c you think it would likely lead to Republicans losing a seat.  NC-12 and VA-3 were drawn as racial gerrymanders designed to dilute minority representation.  For example, VA-3 being canceled led to two AA districts in VA.  IIRC, NC-12 was also scrapped b/c it was designed as a racial gerrymander to dilute minority representation (if memory serves, there were even e-mails from a GOP redistricting operative indicating this was the case in NC, but I could be mistaken).  

There's no real argument against drawing two majority-minority seats if Alabama keeps its 7th district other than "racial gerrymanders are okay as long as it helps the Republican Party politically."  I mean, if you think the Justices on the pertinent Courts are so partisan that they'll subscribe to that view then fair enough, I suppose.  But let's not pretend this is about anything other than Republican partisanship.

NC12/VA03 aren't 2010 Racial Gerrymanders. They are leftovers/vestiges from Bush/Barr 1990 lawsuits working with Southern black Democrats to increase Black and Republican representation within the South by streching the VRA.. NC Democrats drew the same NC 12 in 2002 to 2010 and the 1990s. The GOP drew NC 12 like that because it was precedent, there isn't any need to put part of a sink with the Greensboro area because the surrounding area has always been very Republican. VA03 did give the GOP a definite partisan advantage however. Either way with SCOTUS cancelling districts that connected Charlotte and Greensboro or Richmond and the Hampton Roads they certainly aren't going to start demanding the Mobile area be split. The same goes in Louisiana, a 2nd VRA district is also very unlikely there. Instead expect a fair map in Louisiana that focuses on a  Lean to Likely R district based in Baton Rouge.

Ironically the old NC Map would have been better for NC Democrats in 2018 with them certainly flipping NC09 and probably flipping NC02 as both of them voted for Biden !.

The existence of the present NC-6 does constitute a fairly significant flaw in your argument.

Thats because they saw the gig was up with the State court which focused on partisanship. Look at the old map from 2016 to 2018 where the Greensboro area was split up in a fairly compact manner and where all 3 districts still held in 2018.

Mchenry won by 160k votes while Budd won by 120k votes. Kathy Manning only won by 100k votes . Very easy to divide the 3 districts as earlier done for 3 Likely to Safe R districts with little significant trends in any direction. I expect the GOP to either bring back the compact full crack for 2022 or at the very least attach Randolph and Rockingham county to Greensboro instead of Winston Salem for a swing district due to the more favorable court make up. The former would hardly even look gerrymandered as its just 3 compact counties-30k people. There also plenty of legislative Ds who require bribed seats such as in Asheville. A fair map in Asheville would have one super Safe D seat and 2 tossup seats.. Instead the city gets split for 3 Safe D legislative seats.
For examples

Option 1



Tilt D Clinton +1 Seat.

Option 2

A likely R seat combining High Point and Winston Salem at Trump +9.5 and a Lean Trump +5 Greensboro+random rurals.

One could even place Highpoint/Greensboro/Winston Salem in3 seperate districts for 2 Safe R and a last likely R without even splitting any cities. Once you start splitting the cities its get even easier. Now if the NC GOP wanted to go back to 11-3 which is something I don't think they will do, it does get a bit trickier because you do need some of the surrounding counties to help crack suburban Wake county but still very much doable with regards to the numbers.

Overall the point stands these areas were still just as Republican back in 08 as any city trend has been cancelled out by the rurals and the main reason for the OLD NC12 was actually adhering to VRA precedent from what was believed to be it in 2010.

[lfromnj]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooper_v._Harris

The 5-3 decision included 4 Liberal justices+ Thomas due to his wonderful consistency when it comes to VRA stuff. GL getting his vote when you want to go from changing an ugly compact gerrymander to a more compact map  to changing a fairly compact district and natural COI,(AL 1st) to a split district. Maybe Ds can cancel the weird arm in AL01 but that's about it and its merely a few thousand people in that weird part. This isn't even forgetting that the court make-up has changed.  Maybe they can also push for something to change with AL07 but there is no chance the current courts will split Mobile so Democrats can get their 2nd seat.

[lfromnj]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooper_v._Harris

The 5-3 decision included 4 Liberal justices+ Thomas due to his extreme consistency when it comes to VRA stuff. GL getting his vote when you want to go from changing an ugly compact gerrymander to a more compact map  to changing a fairly compact district and natural COI,(AL 1st) to a split district. Maybe Ds can cancel the weird arm in AL01 but thats about it and its merely a few thousand people in that weird part.

Do you think Thomas would accept a district placing at least the lion's share of Mobile County in AL-01?

No, again he might see AL07 as a racial gerrymander but that doesn't mean he wants to make 2 racially gerrymandered districts instead by taking an arm into Mobile. Also D's still need to find another 5th justice even if they somehow got Thomas who will not join D's in their quest to split to Mobile for their 2nd seat in Alabama.

[lfromnj]

I actually have a similar map to you Kwabbit--here's what I have:



link

I'd rather split just Jackson county along the Tennessee river, but the precincts don't perfectly follow the river and are too big.

I put Autauga and Elmore in the 3rd district to keep the Montgomery metro together, but I could trade territory to make it more Black if there's a concern about it potentially flipping (since it's not super Democratic)

Try to find a way to keep atleast the city(not county) of Tuscaloosa whole.

[lfromnj]

On a 7 district map, would Terri Sewell stay in Birmingham and run in the majority white swing district that leans Democratic, or would she take the Black Belt-Mobile district?

Neither because the Black-Belt Mobile district isn't happening.

[lfromnj]

Is getting 50% BVAP really needed anymore?   Especially in the Birmingham district the white suburbs have actually shifted pretty D in recent years.  

I think this Tuscaloosa+Birmingham district would perform perfectly fine, AA's would still dominate the D primary and it's plenty Dem enough.  Plus helps to separate urban blacks from rural blacks.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4d1cefec-ba89-445c-8511-8f63869faaad



They should really push the lawsuit to get two districts, it's stupid obvious they can be made in the state without issue.

Only a teeny tiny issue of splitting the Coastal city COI in half and creating a non contiguous district. Im sure Clarence Thomas will be eager to create this district.

[lfromnj]

Putting Mobile in a Black Belt district is an adbomindation

And don't get how this ruling follows the precedent of Gingles if it requires a district with mobile.
There was 1 least split map that did have 2 black opportunity seats but neither fulfilled the Gingles test.

[lfromnj]

Which 5-2 map is better?

Both a pretty bad, IMO, but Map #2 has cleaner lines all round so I say that one.  Any thoughts on the map I did?

   

 

The Birmingham district could end up electing a Republican in low turnout midterms.

That was, of course, his intent. If you're doing a Birmingham district that doesn't split Jefferson County, there's really no justification to pairing Jefferson County with anything other than immediately adjacent parts of Shelby County that are continuous with the urban area.

The black belt district isn't awful on its own, though.

Del Tachi's district is Biden +9 by my estimate. If you do Shelby County instead of Bibb you get a Biden +9.5 district. It's bad for a Jefferson standpoint still but at the same time that area of Shelby is super high turnout in any election compared to a county like Bibb.

[lfromnj]

Even if SCOTUS stated a 7 0 was allowed why would Al go 7 0?
Who is going to take Birmingham and Montgomery ?

[lfromnj]

Even if SCOTUS stated a 7 0 was allowed why would Al go 7 0?
Who is going to take Birmingham and Montgomery ?

AL-04 has A LOT of votes to give. My guess is that it takes in a good chunk of Birmingham

Perhaps something like this:

Missouri 8 also has a lot of votes to give .

[lfromnj]

If the Republican caucus on the Supreme Court decides to throw out Section 2, I wonder how many African-American representatives will be left in the Deep South. Alabama, Mississippi, maybe South Carolina could go to all white-community choices (who are mostly going to be white, but you occasionally get a Tim Scott who is the candidate of the white community’s choice). There’s a limit to what Georgia can do in Atlanta, and I guess Memphis is too large and wrongly positioned to make sure only white voters get representation there.

Sc literally has a left trending Trump +8 and Trump +9 district. The state is Trump +11.  MS could risk it but I highly doubt they go for it as no one will take Jackson or the Delta. The SE  district is too dense to really crack.
AL is probably the closest to possible but I doubt they go for it.

Louisiana could go for it by numbers in 24 but New Orleans is too concentrated .
I think Texas would probably be more aggressive in the valley  and maybe East Houston but no black seats would be cut. Obviously the valley seats would likely still be selected by hispanics voting in the Republican primary who then are probably a  majority of R votes in the general as well.

Not sure what FL does .
NC is also there although NC01 is already relatively weak at biden +6. The charlotte seat is staying of course.
On the rest of the country. Nothing really changes in the NE as most minority seats are compact as is now. Maybe NY Democrats nuke the last LI seat but I think incumbent concerns win out there.

In the midwest minority seats are a bunch of Chicago land partisan gerrymanders, Milwaukee seat is drawn in any scenario and isn't really VRA.  Columbus/Indianapolis seats stay and are similar to Milwaukee. Detroit congressional seats should stay. Cleveland seat has to recede from Akron anyway and stays. Missouri 1st obviously stays.
Only other state with significant minority population is California/Nevada and this could be interesting if SCOTUS goes on the 14th amendment. The Central Valley districts IMO already have a decent case for being struck down at SCOTUS. They are a partisan gerrymander but unfortunately for Sara Sadhwani she can't admit that in court. Nevada is fine. I guess in Arizona the Tucson-Phoenix-Cochise, Yuma VRA seat might be on shaky grounds. A redraw of AZ with no VRA seat required for AZ02. A redraw based on that would give Rs a much better 2nd Tucson seat but hurt them a bit in Phoenix.