2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Sol]

I actually have a similar map to you Kwabbit--here's what I have:



link

I'd rather split just Jackson county along the Tennessee river, but the precincts don't perfectly follow the river and are too big.

I put Autauga and Elmore in the 3rd district to keep the Montgomery metro together, but I could trade territory to make it more Black if there's a concern about it potentially flipping (since it's not super Democratic)

[kwabbit]

And if two black performing CD's are required because two are triggered per the 50% BCVAP test, that is the kind of map that in general might well be required. But in reality, it is less likely the triggers will be found, if you have a map that does not look much like a gerrymander per se.

What's the trigger? That two 50% BCVAP could be drawn, so some attempt must be made to draw them, even if the districts don't actually reach that mark?

[kwabbit]

I actually have a similar map to you Kwabbit--here's what I have:


link

I'd rather split just Jackson county along the Tennessee river, but the precincts don't perfectly follow the river and are too big.

I put Autauga and Elmore in the 3rd district to keep the Montgomery metro together, but I could trade territory to make it more Black if there's a concern about it potentially flipping (since it's not super Democratic)

IMO the Birmingham suburb reach-around district is too much of impediment on compactness if the aim is making a map of Alabama that is compact, fair, and isn't a VRA lawsuit waiting to happen. Perhaps I should've altered my Black Belt district to be like yours and take in Pickens county and subtract Whiter parts of Tuscaloosa County to up the Black %, which might be needed to make it perform.

[Torie]

And if two black performing CD's are required because two are triggered per the 50% BCVAP test, that is the kind of map that in general might well be required. But in reality, it is less likely the triggers will be found, if you have a map that does not look much like a gerrymander per se.

What's the trigger? That two 50% BCVAP could be drawn, so some attempt must be made to draw them, even if the districts don't actually reach that mark?

When two triggers are in play, you have to draw two performing black CD's, but not have excess blacks in the CD that are not needed for a performing CD, pursuant to a gerrymander. But if not a gerrymander, excess blacks are OK.

That's my take of what it all comes down to, anyway.

[lfromnj]

I actually have a similar map to you Kwabbit--here's what I have:



link

I'd rather split just Jackson county along the Tennessee river, but the precincts don't perfectly follow the river and are too big.

I put Autauga and Elmore in the 3rd district to keep the Montgomery metro together, but I could trade territory to make it more Black if there's a concern about it potentially flipping (since it's not super Democratic)

Try to find a way to keep atleast the city(not county) of Tuscaloosa whole.

[kwabbit]

And if two black performing CD's are required because two are triggered per the 50% BCVAP test, that is the kind of map that in general might well be required. But in reality, it is less likely the triggers will be found, if you have a map that does not look much like a gerrymander per se.

What's the trigger? That two 50% BCVAP could be drawn, so some attempt must be made to draw them, even if the districts don't actually reach that mark?

When two triggers are in play, you have to draw two performing black CD's, but not have excess blacks in the CD that are not needed for a performing CD, pursuant to a gerrymander. But if not a gerrymander, excess blacks are OK.

That's my take of what it all comes down to, anyway.

I'm still confused what a trigger is exactly though. Can you explain what you mean when you say that?

[Sol]

It's a bit tough to do that without taking out Autauga/Elmore--here's a pass which keeps the bulk of the latter while still keeping Tuscaloosa together.



link

Not sure if that 4th district is actually preferable to one which does a wraparound, which might be better CoI?

[Torie]

And if two black performing CD's are required because two are triggered per the 50% BCVAP test, that is the kind of map that in general might well be required. But in reality, it is less likely the triggers will be found, if you have a map that does not look much like a gerrymander per se.

What's the trigger? That two 50% BCVAP could be drawn, so some attempt must be made to draw them, even if the districts don't actually reach that mark?

When two triggers are in play, you have to draw two performing black CD's, but not have excess blacks in the CD that are not needed for a performing CD, pursuant to a gerrymander. But if not a gerrymander, excess blacks are OK.

That's my take of what it all comes down to, anyway.

I'm still confused what a trigger is exactly though. Can you explain what you mean when you say that?

As I said above, you need to be able to theoretically draw two "compact" CD's that are 50% BCVAP. Where the rubber meets the road, is what "compact" means, for purposes of the trigger. What I don't think it means, is hewing to county and municipal lines. But theoretically being able to draw something erose, which has a bunch of white territory that it has to cross, is more problematical, as sufficing to meet the "compact" prong of the trigger. But aside from governmental lines not meaning much for purposes of this test, nobody really knows exactly where the line is drawn legally as to the "compactness." That is one reason, that drawing a map which looks reasonable, will make it less likely that the "compactness"  lodestar will be given an expansive definition, in my opinion. Conversely, if you draw something that looks gross, it is more likely for a court to think, hey if you live by the sword, you die by the sword, and give a broader definition of what is "compact," for purpose of the trigger. If you go gross, we can too, for purposes of finding the trigger is there, even though you may well not actually be able to draw a CD that actually looks that way, because it has excess blacks in it, not needed for it to be performing.

So for me, I first try to draw the theoretical trigger CD's, before abandoning them. The legal mind works in mysterious ways.

[I’m not Stu]

I tried this 7 district map. Birmingham is a majority-white Democratic leaning swing district. Montgomery-Mobile is the VRA seat. I used bridge connections for VRA compliance in Mobile. Would Terri Sewell stay in Birmingham on this map?

[Former President tack50]

Why is everyone doing a bastardized thing in Mobile? There is no way such a horrible split is required right? Even if you want 2 black districts you can do much better than that



In this map, district 2 is an easy black majority district. Technically only 49.7% black by CVAP, but more than enough to elect a black Democrat (56-44 composite, D+4)

District 5 is a white majority district that however would be very likely to elect a black democrat under a "black voters + token white liberals" weird coalition. It is 52-45 white by CVAP (49-46 white by total population) and D+3, 55-45 D composite

Hell, even if you think that is not enough, I'd argue splitting Huntsville is the better option to get a 2nd black district?

[I’m not Stu]

My VRA district is 56% BCVAP. On my map, Birmingham has a good chance of electing a white Democrat.

[Zaybay]

Why is everyone doing a bastardized thing in Mobile? There is no way such a horrible split is required right? Even if you want 2 black districts you can do much better than that


Hell, even if you think that is not enough, I'd argue splitting Huntsville is the better option to get a 2nd black district?

"Why split mobile", well its mostly because its considered rather sensible in a geographic sense. Going from Huntsville all the way to the black belt cuts through so much land and would likely require something of an odd tentacle going through roughly half of the state. Going to Mobile just requires a small budge out from the black belt. A huge part of drawing VRA districts is whether they are "geographically compact", and simply put, a district going to Huntsville would be rather difficult to argue in favor of.

There's also the fact that Huntsville has fewer African Americans to begin with, whereas Mobile has a lot more. By going to Huntsville, you're effectively crossing more white territory to get fewer African Americans.

[I’m not Stu]

On a 7 district map, would Terri Sewell stay in Birmingham and run in the majority white swing district that leans Democratic, or would she take the Black Belt-Mobile district?

[lfromnj]

On a 7 district map, would Terri Sewell stay in Birmingham and run in the majority white swing district that leans Democratic, or would she take the Black Belt-Mobile district?

Neither because the Black-Belt Mobile district isn't happening.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

On a 7 district map, would Terri Sewell stay in Birmingham and run in the majority white swing district that leans Democratic, or would she take the Black Belt-Mobile district?

Neither because the Black-Belt Mobile district isn't happening.

You hope

[I’m not Stu]

On a 7 district map, would Terri Sewell stay in Birmingham and run in the majority white swing district that leans Democratic, or would she take the Black Belt-Mobile district?

Neither because the Black-Belt Mobile district isn't happening.

You hope

Do you think Sewell would stay in Birmingham on my map or not?

[Zaybay]

On a 7 district map, would Terri Sewell stay in Birmingham and run in the majority white swing district that leans Democratic, or would she take the Black Belt-Mobile district?

Neither because the Black-Belt Mobile district isn't happening.

You hope

Do you think Sewell would stay in Birmingham on my map or not?

Are you just going to keep asking the same question over and over in this thread until someone answers you?

[I’m not Stu]

I made a 6 district map.



Partisan composition.

[Former President tack50]

To be honest, I would argue that under a strict reading of the "compactness" criteria; Alabama should not have a black district mandated. If you need to split Mobile or split Birmingham to get such a district, that is not a compact district

[Sol]

To be honest, I would argue that under a strict reading of the "compactness" criteria; Alabama should not have a black district mandated. If you need to split Mobile or split Birmingham to get such a district, that is not a compact district

You don't need to split Mobile or Birmingham.

[I’m not Stu]

To be honest, I would argue that under a strict reading of the "compactness" criteria; Alabama should not have a black district mandated. If you need to split Mobile or split Birmingham to get such a district, that is not a compact district

You do need to split Mobile or Birmingham to get a majority (not plurality) BCVAP district. A plurality BCVAP district is subject to lawsuits. The VRA districts on both my 6 and 7 district maps are D+10 in Cook PVI.

7 district map: AL-01: Mo Brooks, AL-02: Mike Rogers, AL-03: OPEN (Doug Jones?), AL-04: Robert Aderholt, AL-05: OPEN (Steven Reed?), AL-06: OPEN, AL-07: Jerry Carl/Barry Moore



6 district map: AL-01: Mo Brooks, AL-02: Robert Aderholt, AL-03: OPEN (Doug Jones?), AL-04: Mike Rogers, AL-05: OPEN (Steven Reed?), AL-06: Jerry Carl/Barry Moore

[Sol]

These districts are literally majority Black on CVAP without splitting Mobile or Birmingham:

7 districts:




6 districts:

[I’m not Stu]

These districts are literally majority Black on CVAP without splitting Mobile or Birmingham:

7 districts:

6 districts:

Cook PVI? Is it more likely that Alabama gets 6 or 7?

[Sol]

These districts are literally majority Black on CVAP without splitting Mobile or Birmingham:

7 districts:

6 districts:

Cook PVI? Is it more likely that Alabama gets 6 or 7?

I didn't save the 7-district Black majority seat, but the 6-district seat is 55D-44R on the 2012-2016 average. I imagine the former is higher.

Don't know wrt: your second question.

[I’m not Stu]

These districts are literally majority Black on CVAP without splitting Mobile or Birmingham:

7 districts:

6 districts:

Cook PVI? Is it more likely that Alabama gets 6 or 7?

I didn't save the 7-district Black majority seat, but the 6-district seat is 55D-44R on the 2012-2016 average. I imagine the former is higher.

Don't know wrt: your second question.

Isn’t your 7 district map borderline illegal? Is it more likely the state stays at 7 or loses a seat?