2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Sol]

These districts are literally majority Black on CVAP without splitting Mobile or Birmingham:

7 districts:

6 districts:

Cook PVI? Is it more likely that Alabama gets 6 or 7?

I didn't save the 7-district Black majority seat, but the 6-district seat is 55D-44R on the 2012-2016 average. I imagine the former is higher.

Don't know wrt: your second question.

Isn’t your 7 district map borderline illegal? Is it more likely the state stays at 7 or loses a seat?

Literally how?

[I’m not Stu]

Splitting Birmingham or Mobile is needed for a 55% BCVAP district.

[Sol]

Splitting Birmingham or Mobile is needed for a 55% BCVAP district.

Why does it have to hit that threshold? There are plenty of districts which are required under the VRA which don't have 55% BCVAP--and considering racial polarization in Alabama a district which is majority Black by CVAP will easily be able to elect the Black candidate of choice.

[I’m not Stu]

Splitting Birmingham or Mobile is needed for a 55% BCVAP district.

Why does it have to hit that threshold? There are plenty of districts which are required under the VRA which don't have 55% BCVAP--and considering racial polarization in Alabama a district which is majority Black by CVAP will easily be able to elect the Black candidate of choice.

It doesn't have to. I just prefer it for good measure. I prefer a map with a VRA district and a swing district. What do your full maps of Alabama look like? What is the composite partisanship of each district?

My 6 district map partisanship.



My 7 district map partisanship.

[Brittain33]

These districts are literally majority Black on CVAP without splitting Mobile or Birmingham:

7 districts:

6 districts:

Cook PVI? Is it more likely that Alabama gets 6 or 7?

I didn't save the 7-district Black majority seat, but the 6-district seat is 55D-44R on the 2012-2016 average. I imagine the former is higher.

Don't know wrt: your second question.

Isn’t your 7 district map borderline illegal? Is it more likely the state stays at 7 or loses a seat?

No one knows the odds of it being at 7 or 6.

[Sol]

link

[Torie]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

[Brittain33]

[I’m not Stu]

[Mr.Phips]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

I still don’t understand why the Obama DOJ didn’t push for a 2nd VRA district here.

[I’m not Stu]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

I still don’t understand why the Obama DOJ didn’t push for a 2nd VRA district here.

I don't know. Eric Holder is pushing for one now.

[Torie]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

I still don’t understand why the Obama DOJ didn’t push for a 2nd VRA district here.

I suspect the numbers were not there to draw two "compact" 50%+ BCVAP districts that had no overlapping territory at the time (e.g., before the 2019 CVAP data was put into the DRA, it was a very close case whether Gingles triggered a second black performing CD). It may also be that the contours of the Gingles parameters had not been as clarified by SCOTUS as they are now. If the data base the Court uses matches the current data base in the DRA, either the Pubs are going to lose this case, or SCOTUS is going to modify Gingles. The districts are clearly sufficiently compact. Heck, the map does not even entail an extra county chop.

[I’m not Stu]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

I still don’t understand why the Obama DOJ didn’t push for a 2nd VRA district here.

I suspect the numbers were not there to draw two "compact" 50%+ BCVAP districts that had no overlapping territory at the time (e.g., before the 2019 CVAP data was put into the DRA, it was a very close case whether Gingles triggered a second black performing CD). It may also be that the contours of the Gingles parameters had not been as clarified by SCOTUS as they are now. If the data base the Court uses matches the current data base in the DRA, either the Pubs are going to lose this case, or SCOTUS is going to modify Gingles. The districts are clearly sufficiently compact. Heck, the map does not even entail an extra county chop.

I updated my map and got a more compact map with even fewer county splits with two 50+% BCVAP districts. I didn't split Dale, Tuscaloosa, or Calhoun.

[Skill and Chance]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

I still don’t understand why the Obama DOJ didn’t push for a 2nd VRA district here.

I suspect the numbers were not there to draw two "compact" 50%+ BCVAP districts that had no overlapping territory at the time (e.g., before the 2019 CVAP data was put into the DRA, it was a very close case whether Gingles triggered a second black performing CD). It may also be that the contours of the Gingles parameters had not been as clarified by SCOTUS as they are now. If the data base the Court uses matches the current data base in the DRA, either the Pubs are going to lose this case, or SCOTUS is going to modify Gingles. The districts are clearly sufficiently compact. Heck, the map does not even entail an extra county chop.

I think the current SCOTUS is more likely to end VRA Section 2 redistricting requirements entirely than it is to force the adoption of this map in AL.  Dems would be smarter to wait for 2031 and hope their position on SCOTUS has improved by then.

[I’m not Stu]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

I still don’t understand why the Obama DOJ didn’t push for a 2nd VRA district here.

I suspect the numbers were not there to draw two "compact" 50%+ BCVAP districts that had no overlapping territory at the time (e.g., before the 2019 CVAP data was put into the DRA, it was a very close case whether Gingles triggered a second black performing CD). It may also be that the contours of the Gingles parameters had not been as clarified by SCOTUS as they are now. If the data base the Court uses matches the current data base in the DRA, either the Pubs are going to lose this case, or SCOTUS is going to modify Gingles. The districts are clearly sufficiently compact. Heck, the map does not even entail an extra county chop.

I think the current SCOTUS is more likely to end VRA Section 2 redistricting requirements entirely than it is to force the adoption of this map in AL.  Dems would be smarter to wait for 2031 and hope their position on SCOTUS has improved by then.

You think SCOTUS would allow this map that I drew, where all seven districts are safe R, and Terri Sewell gets replaced by a white Republican in AL-07?

[It’s so Joever]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

I still don’t understand why the Obama DOJ didn’t push for a 2nd VRA district here.

I suspect the numbers were not there to draw two "compact" 50%+ BCVAP districts that had no overlapping territory at the time (e.g., before the 2019 CVAP data was put into the DRA, it was a very close case whether Gingles triggered a second black performing CD). It may also be that the contours of the Gingles parameters had not been as clarified by SCOTUS as they are now. If the data base the Court uses matches the current data base in the DRA, either the Pubs are going to lose this case, or SCOTUS is going to modify Gingles. The districts are clearly sufficiently compact. Heck, the map does not even entail an extra county chop.

I think the current SCOTUS is more likely to end VRA Section 2 redistricting requirements entirely than it is to force the adoption of this map in AL.  Dems would be smarter to wait for 2031 and hope their position on SCOTUS has improved by then.

You think SCOTUS would allow this map that I drew, where all seven districts are safe R, and Terri Sewell gets replaced by a white Republican in AL-07?

SCOTUS would allow poll taxes if they get the opportunity.

[I’m not Stu]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

I still don’t understand why the Obama DOJ didn’t push for a 2nd VRA district here.

I suspect the numbers were not there to draw two "compact" 50%+ BCVAP districts that had no overlapping territory at the time (e.g., before the 2019 CVAP data was put into the DRA, it was a very close case whether Gingles triggered a second black performing CD). It may also be that the contours of the Gingles parameters had not been as clarified by SCOTUS as they are now. If the data base the Court uses matches the current data base in the DRA, either the Pubs are going to lose this case, or SCOTUS is going to modify Gingles. The districts are clearly sufficiently compact. Heck, the map does not even entail an extra county chop.

I think the current SCOTUS is more likely to end VRA Section 2 redistricting requirements entirely than it is to force the adoption of this map in AL.  Dems would be smarter to wait for 2031 and hope their position on SCOTUS has improved by then.

You think SCOTUS would allow this map that I drew, where all seven districts are safe R, and Terri Sewell gets replaced by a white Republican in AL-07?

SCOTUS would allow poll taxes if they get the opportunity.

And allow rotten boroughs too? Maybe with partisan 5-4 decisions overruling Reynolds v. Sims/Wesberry v. Sanders, with John Roberts dissenting?

[Torie]

If I were the Alabama Pubs, in order to increase the odds that they will not lose what would appear to be a most meritorious Holder lawsuit, I would draw the map below, and I would do it before rather than after losing the Holder lawsuit because if they do it after, the odds would be higher than it would be held an insufficient after the fact remedy given that they demonstrated bad faith in the first instance.

You see, they did not chop Jefferson County, and then added the county which minimizes the chop into the third county, and the chop into the third county is the logical place to do it. In other words it was a map which hewed to neutral non race based redistricting principles. At least the Pubs get a somewhat competitive district which if it elects a Dem, the Dem will be a moderate Dem. What are the odds that the Pubs will take my advice? Probably about as high  as I being elected POTUS. Sad!

[Brittain33]

Ben Erdreich is still alive and will be 83 on Election Day next year if he wants to make a comeback in AL-6.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ben Erdreich is still alive and will be 83 on Election Day next year if he wants to make a comeback in AL-6.

This comment wound up inspiring me to remake the 1980s borders for Alabama's CDs.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e7ed31d6-3fd9-49ea-b066-ef87c1075aee
This is what I came up with.
Comes to show just how much rural AL has changed over the past 30 years.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Alabama map I've made.
Only one county split that is avoidable, and avoiding it would make the map horridly uncompact.
AL-07 remains a performing Black CD, and the Birmingham district is 38% black, essentially a minority opportunity CD.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/246fd6c9-2584-4d08-ad88-c9904115d146

[I’m not Stu]

Slight modifications to my map.

[Nyvin]

Is getting 50% BVAP really needed anymore?   Especially in the Birmingham district the white suburbs have actually shifted pretty D in recent years.  

I think this Tuscaloosa+Birmingham district would perform perfectly fine, AA's would still dominate the D primary and it's plenty Dem enough.  Plus helps to separate urban blacks from rural blacks.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4d1cefec-ba89-445c-8511-8f63869faaad



They should really push the lawsuit to get two districts, it's stupid obvious they can be made in the state without issue.

[lfromnj]

Is getting 50% BVAP really needed anymore?   Especially in the Birmingham district the white suburbs have actually shifted pretty D in recent years.  

I think this Tuscaloosa+Birmingham district would perform perfectly fine, AA's would still dominate the D primary and it's plenty Dem enough.  Plus helps to separate urban blacks from rural blacks.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4d1cefec-ba89-445c-8511-8f63869faaad



They should really push the lawsuit to get two districts, it's stupid obvious they can be made in the state without issue.

Only a teeny tiny issue of splitting the Coastal city COI in half and creating a non contiguous district. Im sure Clarence Thomas will be eager to create this district.

[Nyvin]

Is getting 50% BVAP really needed anymore?   Especially in the Birmingham district the white suburbs have actually shifted pretty D in recent years.  

I think this Tuscaloosa+Birmingham district would perform perfectly fine, AA's would still dominate the D primary and it's plenty Dem enough.  Plus helps to separate urban blacks from rural blacks.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4d1cefec-ba89-445c-8511-8f63869faaad



They should really push the lawsuit to get two districts, it's stupid obvious they can be made in the state without issue.

Only a teeny tiny issue of splitting the Coastal city COI in half and creating a non contiguous district. Im sure Clarence Thomas will be eager to create this district.

Nope, I intentionally left the bridge in AL-1.

Edit - Actually if you put the "vast majority" of Mobile in the VRA district it kinda makes a better map,  the only reason for the Mobile split is to have the bridge for road connection to the rest of the county

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4d1cefec-ba89-445c-8511-8f63869faaad