2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Nyvin]

Just for the Mobile-split-naysayers:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/3c9bd559-6259-4608-909d-4c2c7acb35c0


It's cleaner than the current map....

Two performing AA districts is 100% possible and should be required.   No excuses.

[Torie]

Just for the Mobile-split-naysayers:


It's cleaner than the current map....

Two performing AA districts is 100% possible and should be required.   No excuses.

It is very probably required not because two performing black CD's can be drawn, but rather because two most probably deemed "compact" CD's can be drawn that are 50%+ BCVAP, thus triggering the need to draw two performing black CD's under the Gingles metric.

[I’m not Stu]

I recently made 3 types of AL Congressional maps.

The first one is a 6-1 R map. The 2nd map is a 5-2 R map with two Black majority districts and the last map is a 7-0 R gerrymander map that cracks Birmingham and ignores VRA
requirements.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/855d9ef5-cdaa-485d-9236-55f9b0787864
https://davesredistricting.org/join/27d6e9dd-d5a9-4812-a2bd-8f0141a67c99
https://davesredistricting.org/join/a538c473-a8e5-44d0-b01b-1155a1e8f73f

The 6-1 and 5-2 maps are also illegal because the VRA districts aren’t reasonably compact.

[beesley]

Alabama map I've made.
Only one county split that is avoidable, and avoiding it would make the map horridly uncompact.
AL-07 remains a performing Black CD, and the Birmingham district is 38% black, essentially a minority opportunity CD.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/246fd6c9-2584-4d08-ad88-c9904115d146

If I were to make one of my usual 'my ideal' maps it would look very much like this, so I won't.

[I’m not Stu]

I updated my illegal racial gerrymander to be far more compact.



Partisan composition.

[I’m not Stu]

2020 census data.

[ProgressiveModerate]

2 VRA districts are still possible, but in order to do so, you'd have to make a leg down to mobile and make a pretty long district 1 along the coast which could be argued isn't compact and therefore shouldn't be required. Seems likely we just end up with AL-7 as the only black district.

[I’m not Stu]

2 VRA districts are still possible, but in order to do so, you'd have to make a leg down to mobile and make a pretty long district 1 along the coast which could be argued isn't compact and therefore shouldn't be required. Seems likely we just end up with AL-7 as the only black district.

What’s the compactness rating on that map?

[ProgressiveModerate]

2 VRA districts are still possible, but in order to do so, you'd have to make a leg down to mobile and make a pretty long district 1 along the coast which could be argued isn't compact and therefore shouldn't be required. Seems likely we just end up with AL-7 as the only black district.

What’s the compactness rating on that map?

36; not great but not terrible. It's hard to tell from the original photo but I did that little trick to ensure AL-1 remained contiguous

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Made 2 AL maps. One has 2 Dem seats and the other the expected 1 dem seat.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/67772606-9f4f-4cee-a9b8-327f4b27bfa1
https://davesredistricting.org/join/a6fc6af2-0216-43af-b09e-24e58cfd1d92

[I’m not Stu]

2020 census data.

60 compactness rating. 80 splitting rating.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

2020 census data.

60 compactness rating. 80 splitting rating.

Not bad.

[I’m not Stu]

I now have a 63 compactness rating.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1436349572926873603

My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

[Former President tack50]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1436349572926873603

My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

Would this be mandatory to do? I've always thought that splitting Mobile was a big no?

[Oryxslayer]

My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

Would this be mandatory to do? I've always thought that splitting Mobile was a big no?

Yes, it is a big red line. The GOP would never willingly draw two AA seats. But it is the kind of red line easily crossed if a lawsuit forces two seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

Would this be mandatory to do? I've always thought that splitting Mobile was a big no?

Yes, it is a big red line. The GOP would never willingly draw two AA seats. But it is the kind of red line easily crossed if a lawsuit forces two seats.

This might be my biases speaking, but isn't there a difference between simply splitting Mobile and doing so in a way that forces the 1st to rely on water contiguity?

[Adam Griffin]

My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

Would this be mandatory to do? I've always thought that splitting Mobile was a big no?

Yes, it is a big red line. The GOP would never willingly draw two AA seats. But it is the kind of red line easily crossed if a lawsuit forces two seats.

This might be my biases speaking, but isn't there a difference between simply splitting Mobile and doing so in a way that forces the 1st to rely on water contiguity?

I'm sure it's not any more of an inherent issue than dealing with the Delmarva Peninsula for VA, the Kentucky Bend for KY, or most of Southern LA at this point. Point contiguity and/or adjacent precincts - regardless of what is between them - should be able to pass muster. Besides, I'm sure there's probably an alternative that can be drawn either to give all the bay-adjacent Mobile precincts to non-BVAP districts and/or split those precincts to avoid exclusive water contiguity (after all, I highly doubt there are large black-majority populations living on the beaches in Mobile).

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

Would this be mandatory to do? I've always thought that splitting Mobile was a big no?

Yes, it is a big red line. The GOP would never willingly draw two AA seats. But it is the kind of red line easily crossed if a lawsuit forces two seats.

You can make two majority minority seats without splitting Mobile

[I’m not Stu]

This map uses water contiguity, but has bridge connectivity.

[Former President tack50]

I also did this thing back in the day for 7 districts, which is a lot cleaner but I don't think the 5th in here would qualify?

Why is everyone doing a bastardized thing in Mobile? There is no way such a horrible split is required right? Even if you want 2 black districts you can do much better than that



In this map, district 2 is an easy black majority district. Technically only 49.7% black by CVAP, but more than enough to elect a black Democrat (56-44 composite, D+4)

District 5 is a white majority district that however would be very likely to elect a black democrat under a "black voters + token white liberals" weird coalition. It is 52-45 white by CVAP (49-46 white by total population) and D+3, 55-45 D composite

Hell, even if you think that is not enough, I'd argue splitting Huntsville is the better option to get a 2nd black district?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

Would this be mandatory to do? I've always thought that splitting Mobile was a big no?

Yes, it is a big red line. The GOP would never willingly draw two AA seats. But it is the kind of red line easily crossed if a lawsuit forces two seats.

This might be my biases speaking, but isn't there a difference between simply splitting Mobile and doing so in a way that forces the 1st to rely on water contiguity?

I'm sure it's not any more of an inherent issue than dealing with the Delmarva Peninsula for VA, the Kentucky Bend for KY, or most of Southern LA at this point. Point contiguity and/or adjacent precincts - regardless of what is between them - should be able to pass muster. Besides, I'm sure there's probably an alternative that can be drawn either to give all the bay-adjacent Mobile precincts to non-BVAP districts and/or split those precincts to avoid exclusive water contiguity (after all, I highly doubt there are large black-majority populations living on the beaches in Mobile).

There is also a third option - all of Mobile County being placed in a black district with a very significant black plurality, turning AL-01 into a black district. But that is both less likely to be forced by the courts, and the least popular option with AL GOPers if I had to guess.
This is what that might look like

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Did a quick map showing it's very easy making to majority minority seats in Alabama while keeping Mobile intact

https://davesredistricting.org/join/105bbfcb-85c2-4619-8304-acc18617aeb9

[I’m not Stu]

Did a quick map showing it's very easy making to majority minority seats in Alabama while keeping Mobile intact

https://davesredistricting.org/join/105bbfcb-85c2-4619-8304-acc18617aeb9

That Black Belt district looks odd. My map has fewer county splits and has both the Birmingham and Black Belt districts more Democratic than that Black Belt district.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Did a quick map showing it's very easy making to majority minority seats in Alabama while keeping Mobile intact

https://davesredistricting.org/join/105bbfcb-85c2-4619-8304-acc18617aeb9

That Black Belt district looks odd. My map has fewer county splits and has both the Birmingham and Black Belt districts more Democratic than that Black Belt district.

I was mostly making it to show that you can create two minority seats without splitting up Mobile