2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

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Boo Alabama deserves no representation after kicked Jones out for Tuberville

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My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

Would this be mandatory to do? I've always thought that splitting Mobile was a big no?

Yes, it is a big red line. The GOP would never willingly draw two AA seats. But it is the kind of red line easily crossed if a lawsuit forces two seats.

You can make two majority minority seats without splitting Mobile

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Did a quick map showing it's very easy making to majority minority seats in Alabama while keeping Mobile intact

https://davesredistricting.org/join/105bbfcb-85c2-4619-8304-acc18617aeb9

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Did a quick map showing it's very easy making to majority minority seats in Alabama while keeping Mobile intact

https://davesredistricting.org/join/105bbfcb-85c2-4619-8304-acc18617aeb9

That Black Belt district looks odd. My map has fewer county splits and has both the Birmingham and Black Belt districts more Democratic than that Black Belt district.

I was mostly making it to show that you can create two minority seats without splitting up Mobile

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Expect four map proposals on October 27.

https://yellowhammernews.com/state-sen-mcclendon-expect-proposed-redistricting-maps-released-to-public-on-october-27/

Here’s hoping the democrats fight for two black seats

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the draft CD plan feels like a least change map.

I mean it is. But still don’t see why they don’t give Morgan and lauderdale to the forth to make a more compact map

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the draft CD plan feels like a least change map.

I mean it is. But still don’t see why they don’t give Morgan and lauderdale to the forth to make a more compact map

Could incumbent residencies be a factor?

It doesn't seem to be.



The only "massive" changes on this map is Gadsden is now in Rogers's district and Blount County in Aderholt, and the Northern Alabama district is entirely retained

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Have they drawn a map where Doug Jones only won 1 district in 2017?

Actually, if AL-6 is truly 5 points more Democratic, I'd say it's pretty likely Jones won that in 2017.

Also, why is AL-7 so much less Democratic here?  Did it have to expand into Republican territory due to being underpopulated?

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1452709961503436806?s=20

I guess that explains AL-4’s jankiness but that’s extremely uneeded

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TWO FIVE! TWO FIVE! TWO FIVE!

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If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

And potentially South Carolina

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If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

And potentially South Carolina

Thing about SC is a 2nd black district is actually pretty hard just because of how black voters are distributed; a black opportunity seat based around Columbia and a slightly unpacked SC-6 is the best you can realistically get.

It’s actually  not all that hard. I’ve done one before 2020 where you had one following the I-20 from Columbia to Florence and another in and around Charleston

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If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

And potentially South Carolina

Thing about SC is a 2nd black district is actually pretty hard just because of how black voters are distributed; a black opportunity seat based around Columbia and a slightly unpacked SC-6 is the best you can realistically get.

Even as it is, SC-06 needs to have some ugly lines to get the necessary black population.

It actually doesn’t at all, republicans just draw in a bunch of white liberals in Charleston that would otherwise be a swing seat. You (before 2020) could make a black plurality seat with little to no county splits

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Let’s say by some miracle this decision stood. Would such a rational be applied to other southern high African American states with GOP gerrymanders? How many seats could that net Dems?

At most, 2. LA and NC (and the NC map is already in front of courts).

I’m still gonna insist it’ll have some affect on SC. At the very least a new minority influence seat could very easily be argued for, if not two majority minority seats outright

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Is it even possible to draw a 7-0 with two black districts?

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Interesting we may get 2 black seats AL but only 1 in LA.

If this redraw gets through in AL, wouldn't that set a precedent for a similar lawsuit in LA? If anything, the case would be stronger in LA given the higher Black population.

Theoretically yes but both states are different in terms of geography and stuff. Also LA Blacks are really bad at turning out (especially rural blacks) compared to AL do a 48% rural black district could actually be a tossup, which makes the case it’s not time to unpack LA black districts yet.

Louisiana Blacks turn up when there’s a competitive election/one they can win. They turned out for Edwards. The difference is Alabama would (more or less) be splitting up its current minority majority district, while Louisiana would be taking in black voters that haven’t been in a Minority Majority seat

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Will Republicans still try and be sneaky and try to include either super low turnout black communities/prisons with super red and high turnout white suburbs so one of the black seats is in practice a swing seat, or do they just do a straightforward 5-2 map to avoid further risk of legal action?

I’ve said this before, if it feels like cheating, it’s probably cheating. Republicans *could* make a majority or plurality black seat in rural North Carolina or South Georgia that voted Republican, but they don’t cause they know it’ll be strict down.

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And you all thought the Dems might pick up a seat in AL out of all this litigation. Silly boys.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uQMqkLjKw1ghugljSU6N02yGbWRmMmPO/view

This seems as watertight as a colander.

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I made a map.



Dark blue district is 50.1% Black VAP, light blue district is 50.3% Black VAP.

Six county splits for seven districts, only remotely competitive district is light blue, 56.1% Biden 2020, but polarized enough to reliably elect a Black Dem.

Couple precinct splits that I could have forgone, but I chose to make them to maintain road connectivity in the district that wraps around Mobile.

Compactness isn't phenomenal, but it's tough to make them compact and also minority.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0d91bba4-e840-4e3a-ac74-7356f10ae37d

I personally abide by Road Connectivity but, using SC-01 2013-Present as an example, there is precedence for using somewhat suspect water continuity, especially when trying to make a VRA district. From 2013-2023 it used water adjacency to jump from sea island to sea island from Beaufort to Charleston.

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Play stupid games win stupid prizes.

It seems like strategically, the AL GOP should've made a map a light D or even tossup mostly rural black belt seat they would hope shifts right long term. There's ways they could've gotten to at least 46% black while keeping the seat very winnable for them. Basically make a map as favorable as possible that might have a fighting chance at a legal challenge

Instead, any court map is likely to be a pretty solid 5-2 map with the 2 seats being majority black or close to it.

That kind of district would likely not stand and end up in another round of court challenges. You *can* draw a district just like that in southern Georgia, for example, but republicans didn’t try cause the VRA doesn’t work that way.

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So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

Probably this whole process repeats itself. Worth noting that representation is *not* based on proportionality but if there is a concentrated and functioning minority area that is large enough to be a congressional seat (in glazing over but that’s the gist). If Alabama looses a seat (which is unlikely imo) they still would likely be required to have two black seats as the urban blacks are entitled to a seat and the rural blacks are too.

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So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

The 6th is not majority-black on that map. The 2nd is barely majority black VAP and may not be majority black VAP by 2030.

I thought participating in this thread would have taught people that a performing district for the candidate of choice  does not need to be over 50% for the single specific minority group, and it varies based on the turnout and rpv in a region, but here we are.

> creates a district with 49.9% black population and 35% white population

People; it’s NOT VRA!!!

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So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

I see two Dem seats but only one 50% BVAP seat.

Here is one that does. So, yes, it’s possible. Not good, but possible.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/faa3d1ad-67af-49c9-916e-26f56317a96b

For the hundredth time VRA seats don’t have to be 50% minority CVAP or VAP or anything. Just be able to elect the candidate of said minorities choice

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Keep up the good fight, Alabama!

🙄

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If the proposed maps are racist then why wasn't the Dem drawn 2000 map? 

A) no one is saying the map is racist, but that it violates federal redistricting laws

2) they both can be bad. Just cause no one at the time said anything doesn’t make it right in retrospect.

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If the proposed maps are racist then why wasn't the Dem drawn 2000 map?

This question is pointless anyway because it's a whataboutism which means absolutely nothing legally but here's the answer: because at that time it was still possible for some of the districts to elect conservadems which were also supported by black voters and thus did not weaken black voting rights. That is no longer the case. Things can change politically in 20 years you know.

It seems kinda silly that the inherent quality of representation available to Black communities depends on White people voting for Democrats, and especially very conservative Democrats at that!  "Black voting rights" =/= being represented by a Democrat. 

You are right, the argument is that black voters have a right to be represented by a person of their choice. It just so happens their choice is almost always a democrat.