2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this is obviously rigged for the GOP as much as (or more than) it was rigged for the Dems in 2010. Both are bad, of course, but making a competitive state 6-2-1 is especially egregious.

How is it 6 2 1?


Arizona suburban Ds barely ran behind Biden.

I'm looking at PVI, which is the only actually objective metric we have. I had a whole quote pyramid in another thread about all the subjective guesswork nonsense people put into their analysis of these maps and I'm not relitigating this point again.

538 PVI seems to assume AZ is an R + 8 state or so rather than a true tossup. 6R - 3D on average in an R + 8 state seems p fair. I think the bigger argument would be that in 2016 Pres when AZ was close it was 7R - 2D which definately isn’t fair.

Do you have info on how 538 calculates the PVI? I assumed it was an average of 2016 and 2020, but that would be around R+5. Maybe they include local races (which is pretty dumb if so since there's no way to normalize that to a national baseline, but whatever). Either way, it's pretty transparent that this is a gerrymander.

Iirc 25% comes from state legislative

Ah. That is kind of iffy methodologically, and it might skew the AZ results slightly. But still, this remains egregious.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1469419622457913351

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1469419622457913351

The Lacy Clay Jr legacy continues

[lfromnj]

That new AZ-01/02 is hideous--why does that district have to go into Pinal?

Tiebreaker voted with the Dems to prevent Mohave from being with the northern district as part of a compromise.

[GALeftist]

That new AZ-01/02 is hideous--why does that district have to go into Pinal?

Tiebreaker voted with the Dems to prevent Mohave from being with the northern district as part of a compromise.

Why not just have that district go into northeast Maricopa for all the population it needs? You can even give it the Salt River Indian Community since it has such a high native population already. Then you can have a different district anchored in Pinal with however much of southeast Maricopa it needs. At least that's how I'd draw it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fun fact: 8/9 districts on the current draft map go into Maricopa County.

Honestly because Maricopa is so large most reasonable maps have 7 to 8 districts going into the county but just weird to think about.

[wbrocks67]

What are the chances this horrific 6-2-1 map passes?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What are the chances this horrific 6-2-1 map passes?

It's literally 5-4 Biden

[Mr.Phips]

What are the chances this horrific 6-2-1 map passes?

It's literally 5-4 Biden

Two of the districts were barely Biden and the third only went for Biden by six.  This would probably be a 7-2 Republican map in 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the chances this horrific 6-2-1 map passes?

It's literally 5-4 Biden

Two of the districts were barely Biden and the third only went for Biden by six.  This would probably be a 7-2 Republican map in 2022.

In a truly fair map, the 6th should probably be a bit bluer, bit if in 2022 Arizona votes something like R + 8 or 10 for generic ballot, a 6R - 3D delegation seems pretty reasonable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the chances this horrific 6-2-1 map passes?

It's literally 5-4 Biden

A 5-4 Biden map is fair for Arizona. Also given how Ds have been performing in the state over time, it's unlikely they are whittled down to only 2 seats. It's not the 2000s anymore.

[xavier110]

The R and D commissioners submitted their likely last draft Cong and Leg maps yesterday.

Tbh, I think the R congressional map makes better sense and leaves Ds more room to grow, especially in the Phoenix metro area. Lol, a little in disbelief about that but it is what it is.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The R and D commissioners submitted their likely last draft Cong and Leg maps yesterday.

Tbh, I think the R maps make better sense and leave Ds more room to grow, especially in the Phoenix metro area. Lol, a little in disbelief about that but it is what it is.

Please tell me the R maps leave AZ-01(old AZ 06) as a Biden district

[xavier110]

The R and D commissioners submitted their likely last draft Cong and Leg maps yesterday.

Tbh, I think the R maps make better sense and leave Ds more room to grow, especially in the Phoenix metro area. Lol, a little in disbelief about that but it is what it is.

Please tell me the R maps leave AZ-01(old AZ 06) as a Biden district

It’s a 50/50 district in their version. Grijalva and Gallego districts remain safe D, Stanton’s Tempe/Mesa is lean/likely D. Tucson and current AZ-06 are toss ups/lean R in favorable environments for GOP. Leskos district is likely/lean R but tossup in favorable D year…think it’s like Biden 45-46 percent, which gives Dems room to grow.

That map could get them to 6-3 in a good D year. The D map just kinda locks them into 5-4.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1471549892472549376?s=21

[wbrocks67]

Good, a 6R-3D map for Arizona would be ridiculous.

[BoiseBoy]

Aside from that ugly arm on district 6, this is a fine map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

2020 Pres data on the new map. Hillary lost the 1rst and 6th in 2016 but Kyrsten and Kelly both carried the 8th.

Overall I like this map because it's reasonably compact, good from COIs standpoint, and is fair overall in terms of partisanship. Only seats 9 and 3 are truly safe over the course of the decade; Republicans slipping in the suburbs could cost them both 8 and 5 whereas a Dem collapse with Hispanic could risk the 7th.

I really hope the Commission can figure out what they want to do with Pinal County though. Right now, it really feels like Pinal County just ended up being "leftovers" from a bunch of districts and ensuring district 1 could connect to Native Reservations right below Pheonix.

[Roll Roons]

I really hope the Commission can figure out what they want to do with Pinal County though. Right now, it really feels like Pinal County just ended up being "leftovers" from a bunch of districts and ensuring district 1 could connect to Native Reservations right below Pheonix.

TBH, I don't get the point of the new AZ-06 having that weird arm into Pinal. I feel like that part can be shifted to AZ-07, and AZ-06 can instead take in more of Tucson.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really hope the Commission can figure out what they want to do with Pinal County though. Right now, it really feels like Pinal County just ended up being "leftovers" from a bunch of districts and ensuring district 1 could connect to Native Reservations right below Pheonix.

TBH, I don't get the point of the new AZ-06 having that weird arm into Pinal. I feel like that part can be shifted to AZ-07, and AZ-06 can instead take in more of Tucson.

The issue is if you switch them around it starts to risk AZ-7 from a VRA perspective



This map keeps AZ-7 at about the same Hispanic %, but shifts it slightly right (AZ-6 hence shifts left). This map directly splits downtown Tuson though

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/freeman_az/status/1472705938100342785?s=21

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol so we’re back to the GOP’s preferred map. This looks pretty simillar to the 8.1 from last week

Also if it just me or has there been like 10 “starting point” maps so far

[Nyvin]

DRA -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8633cdca-2edd-4bcc-bae0-43e11f82c510

Looks pretty fair overall, lots of potential competitive districts.

I could see this being 6D-3R by the end of the decade if the metros continue to move left.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The 6th looks a bit cleaner on this map.

[BoiseBoy]

The commission has chosen to use draft 12.1 as its new congressional starting point.


This map is 5-4 GOP.



Both districts 1 and 6 are within 1.5%.