2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/10/08/five-finalists-to-lead-independent-redistricting-committee-chosen/

The five finalists are:

Nicole Cullen, an American history, American government and criminal justice teacher at Perry High School in Gilbert.
Thomas Loquvam, general counsel and vice president of corporate services at the utility company EPCOR. He previously served as general counsel at Pinnacle West, the parent company of Arizona Public Service.
Erika Schupak Neuberg, a psychologist with a practice in Scottsdale who serves as a national board member for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Gregory Teesdale, an Oro Valley resident and former executive at venture capital companies
Robert Wilson, who owns a business consulting practice and gun store in Flagstaff.

Description of all 5 in the article, feel free to read through.

Based on the bios, Cullen and Neuberg are probably the only ones who aren't guaranteed to be partisan Republicans

Neuberg dropped out by the way.

https://twitter.com/AZCourts/status/1317119396175806466

This is likely to end in a deadlock with all the D commissioners voting for Cullen and all the R commissioners voting for Wilson.  What happens then?

[lfromnj]

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/10/08/five-finalists-to-lead-independent-redistricting-committee-chosen/

The five finalists are:

Nicole Cullen, an American history, American government and criminal justice teacher at Perry High School in Gilbert.
Thomas Loquvam, general counsel and vice president of corporate services at the utility company EPCOR. He previously served as general counsel at Pinnacle West, the parent company of Arizona Public Service.
Erika Schupak Neuberg, a psychologist with a practice in Scottsdale who serves as a national board member for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Gregory Teesdale, an Oro Valley resident and former executive at venture capital companies
Robert Wilson, who owns a business consulting practice and gun store in Flagstaff.

Description of all 5 in the article, feel free to read through.

Based on the bios, Cullen and Neuberg are probably the only ones who aren't guaranteed to be partisan Republicans

Neuberg dropped out by the way.

https://twitter.com/AZCourts/status/1317119396175806466

This is likely to end in a deadlock with all the D commissioners voting for Cullen and all the R commissioners voting for Wilson.  What happens then?

AZ supreme court picks?

[Sol]

Torie could you give the link for your map?

[Torie]

Torie could you give the link for your map?

Hitting the publish button on the DRA and then copying the URL link as instructed by its directions does not seem to work, but here it is. If someone can explain what the glitch is, that would be helpful.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9fa4f10f-7eb4-4238-b301-2847c74dcb26

Anyway, this image is kind of cool. The partisan colors are from the 2018 senate race.

[Sol]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

[Nyvin]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Neither is AZ-1

[lfromnj]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Neither is AZ-1

AZ01 is definitely not VRA protected. Just don't split those reservations.

[Torie]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Yes it is, and I am the lawyer, and you are not.

Anyway, I don't want to debate the point now too much. But there is nothing that requires a VRA CD that has to stretch over a 100 miles of empty desert, and the CD probably has a majority of Hispanic voters, or at least Hispanic CVAP (circa 5 years ago, 39.3% of the CVAP was Hispanic (probably higher now), and AZ has closed primaries), voting in a Dem primary, in any event. Moreover, Hispanics are becoming less of a distinctive voting block, and there is less and less white hostility to voting for them, as time goes by. I suspect Hispanics and the VRA are on its last legs at this point, but we shall see about that as time goes by.

Case dismissed. Next!

[lfromnj]

^Especially in Pima county, there isn't significant racial block voting as far as I can tell.

[Torie]

^Especially in Pima county, there isn't significant racial block voting as far as I can tell.

The incumbent's biggest fans in fact are white liberals associated with the University of Tuscon. He does not do very well with Hispanics associated with the military base, and those patrolling the border, who love the wall. So many stereotypes, so little time.

[Nyvin]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Neither is AZ-1

AZ01 is definitely not VRA protected. Just don't split those reservations.

It's not the VRA - There's rules the commission has to follow in regard to COI's and the Indian Reservations are quite heavily weighted in the rules.

[Sol]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Neither is AZ-1

AZ01 is definitely not VRA protected. Just don't split those reservations.

It's not the VRA - There's rules the commission has to follow in regard to COI's and the Indian Reservations are quite heavily weighted in the rules.

I'm pretty sure Torie's map keeps individual reservations together--I don't think there's some requirement that all reservations have to be in the same district, or the 2000 map wouldn't've happened.

[Torie]

How did the map traduce the tribes? I was taught about respecting the tribes in no uncertain terms by a Welshman of all people that still posts here once in a while.

In the old days job one was keeping the Hopis and Navajos apart because the Hopis considered the Navajos land grabbers. But they kissed and made up for purposes of redistricting after the 2010 census.

[Nyvin]

*shrugs* we'll see I guess, but they've never made an AZ-1 that didn't include the White Mountain and San Carlos reservations.  Definitely seems "practicable" to me to include them.

[Sol]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Yes it is, and I am the lawyer, and you are not.

Anyway, I don't want to debate the point now too much. But there is nothing that requires a VRA CD that has to stretch over a 100 miles of empty desert, and the CD probably has a majority of Hispanic voters, or at least Hispanic CVAP (circa 5 years ago, 39.3% of the CVAP was Hispanic (probably higher now), and AZ has closed primaries), voting in a Dem primary, in any event. Moreover, Hispanics are becoming less of a distinctive voting block, and there is less and less white hostility to voting for them, as time goes by. I suspect Hispanics and the VRA are on its last legs at this point, but we shall see about that as time goes by.

Case dismissed. Next!

I mean, this is the tricky thing about the VRA right? There ought to be at least a pretty strong shot for the Latino candidate of choice to win both the primary and the general, and since Latino voters tend to be less politically unified that does require at least somewhat higher Latino percentages.

In any case it's definitely possible to have an at least slightly more Latino AZ-03 while still making AZ-02 more R (like this map I posted upthread) and if the GOP-dominated commission is trying to draw a fake fair map, I imagine they'd like to avoid controversy related to the VRA.

[Torie]

Well we shall just agree to disagree on this matter. Life is still beautiful, and I won't consider you HP's for failing to be persuaded by me.

[lfromnj]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Yes it is, and I am the lawyer, and you are not.

Anyway, I don't want to debate the point now too much. But there is nothing that requires a VRA CD that has to stretch over a 100 miles of empty desert, and the CD probably has a majority of Hispanic voters, or at least Hispanic CVAP (circa 5 years ago, 39.3% of the CVAP was Hispanic (probably higher now), and AZ has closed primaries), voting in a Dem primary, in any event. Moreover, Hispanics are becoming less of a distinctive voting block, and there is less and less white hostility to voting for them, as time goes by. I suspect Hispanics and the VRA are on its last legs at this point, but we shall see about that as time goes by.

Case dismissed. Next!

I mean, this is the tricky thing about the VRA right? There ought to be at least a pretty strong shot for the Latino candidate of choice to win both the primary and the general, and since Latino voters tend to be less politically unified that does require at least somewhat higher Latino percentages.

In any case it's definitely possible to have an at least slightly more Latino AZ-03 while still making AZ-02 more R (like this map I posted upthread) and if the GOP-dominated commission is trying to draw a fake fair map, I imagine they'd like to avoid controversy related to the VRA.

For the GOp map why keep the arm to Yuma?
Just put it with Maricopa?

[Stuart98]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Neither is AZ-1

AZ01 is definitely not VRA protected. Just don't split those reservations.

It's not the VRA - There's rules the commission has to follow in regard to COI's and the Indian Reservations are quite heavily weighted in the rules.

I'm pretty sure Torie's map keeps individual reservations together--I don't think there's some requirement that all reservations have to be in the same district, or the 2000 map wouldn't've happened.

The 2000 map happened because the Navajo and Hopi requested that they be in separate congressional districts due to a dispute. That dispute had been settled by the time 2011 redistricting rolled around.

[Gass3268]

Good news! Looks like AZGOP efforts to mess with the redistricting commission has failed. The 5th/Independent member is a true independent.

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1352299682026856449?s=20

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1352302253546192897?s=20

[Stuart98]

5-5 GOP Dem map. AZ-8 is really wacky though.

This map splits the Tohono Oʼodham reservation and is thus illegal.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1352307813083729921

This is her donation history. Seems very broad but she did donate to O'Hallerhan.  Considering he is the dude that gets the  most screwed in an actually fair map thats a good sign for him.(Kirkpatrick will take a hit no matter what but she wouldn't be screwed.)

[Skill and Chance]

I think this is now highly likely to be a 5/5 map, or 5/4/1 for one side or the other depending on how much they emphasize compactness vs. competitiveness.

[VAR]

AZ-02 Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick has announced that she won’t seek reelection in 2022. How does this development affect the new map?

[Stuart98]

Does the commission even consider incumbency? I doubt it affects much.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is the kind of map the AZ GOP might have passed in their dream scenario.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/b1c87619-fa1d-474f-b420-c1fd6abea519