2020 Redistricting in Arizona
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  2020 Redistricting in Arizona
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Author Topic: 2020 Redistricting in Arizona  (Read 23503 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
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« on: March 26, 2020, 01:54:41 PM »

Arizona has gained at least one new house seat every single decade since the 1950s.
It is forecasted to gain another one in the 2020s.
Sorry for the decidedly non-spicy OP.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe6bc3b9-ee9f-43e0-86b3-18b5f9984750
this is what I am putting forth as a guess as to what the next decade's districts would look like.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2020, 05:05:14 PM »

Is it possible to draw a third Hispanic VRA district? Looks like using 2010 data you could get pretty close by sending your AZ-7 into Mesa and presumably the Hispanic population share has grown since then.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2020, 06:40:54 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2020, 06:51:53 PM by Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil »

Is it possible to draw a third Hispanic VRA district? Looks like using 2010 data you could get pretty close by sending your AZ-7 into Mesa and presumably the Hispanic population share has grown since then.
I was able to get AZ-07 up into Hispanic opportunity territory by merely swapping land with AZ-10. But this new seat would probably still be quite viable for Greg Stanton and whites would still be a big chunk of the D primary, so I assume in practice this would be a 2.5 Hispanic seat map now. Moreover, there would be loads of white liberals in this district, though I think Ruben Gallego would still be fine if Stanton stayed put in AZ-09. Moreover, I don't think that white Dems and Hispanic Dems would regularly back different candidates here? I could be wrong though...
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2020, 07:41:14 PM »

Three Latino VRA seats is indeed possible.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/200a8c13-5182-4e0a-b47e-07228fb2341b
the most adversely affected area is the East Valley; the 5th is forced north, which has a domino effect that impacts every other majority-white Maricopa CD.
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Boobs
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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2020, 08:10:22 PM »




Mostly a continuity map from 2010 with districts generally in the same area and shape.

AZ-01 : Clinton +1.1 Sinema +7.6 [current: Trump +1]
AZ-02 : Clinton +4.2 Sinema + 6.8 [current: Clinton+5]
AZ-03 : Clinton +19.7 Sinema + 19.2 [current: Clinton+19]
AZ-04 : Trump + 41.0 McSally +33.6 [current: Trump+40]
AZ-05 : Trump +23.4 McSally + 15.7 [current: Trump+21]
AZ-06 : Clinton +0.2 Sinema +6.1 [current: Trump+10]
AZ-07 : Clinton +43.7 Sinema +48.2 [current: Clinton +49]
AZ-08 : Trump +19.9 McSally +10.8 [current: Trump+21]
AZ-09 : Clinton +8.4 Sinema + 18.6 [current: Clinton +17]
AZ-10 : Clinton + 6.5 Sinema + 16.2

ends up being a pretty severe Dem-mander.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2020, 08:14:40 PM »

Reminder that AZ throws out the old map and starts anew, so the districts may not resemble the present ones. The cross-county native tribes to the NE and the Border Hispanics to the South need to stay together though, so its uncertain how much can actually change outside of Maricopa.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2020, 08:17:04 PM »

Reminder that AZ throws out the old map and starts anew, so the districts may not resemble the present ones. The cross-county native tribes to the NE and the Border Hispanics to the South need to stay together though, so its uncertain how much can actually change outside of Maricopa.
There certainly is a very strong chance of AZ-05 being pushed into Pinal in any case, though.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2020, 04:31:04 AM »

Three Latino VRA seats is indeed possible.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/200a8c13-5182-4e0a-b47e-07228fb2341b
the most adversely affected area is the East Valley; the 5th is forced north, which has a domino effect that impacts every other majority-white Maricopa CD.

Thanks. Both the Maricopa Hispanic seats aren't quite majority by voting age population - though I imagine at least one would be by now. I know in Texas it's generally assumed you need considerably more than 50% to make it perform. Does the same hold true in Arizona, or are the turnout differentials lower?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2020, 05:49:10 AM »

Republicans seem to be very hurt by geography in Arizona. The NW corner of the state and even NW Mauricio’s County are pretty much where Republicans are concentrated
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lfromnj
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« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2020, 08:16:40 AM »
« Edited: March 27, 2020, 09:26:54 AM by lfromnj »

Republicans seem to be very hurt by geography in Arizona. The NW corner of the state and even NW Mauricio’s County are pretty much where Republicans are concentrated
Not he majority of the Republicans are in Maricopa, the actual geographical advantage is the hispanic lack of voters advantage which spreads the votes among a greater population, despite getting like72% of the vote Clinton only got like 120k votes.

3 VRA hispanic seats seems anyway absurd to me considering they are like 20% of the voters. If its the most natural compact seat then draw it but dont try to go for a 3rd VRA hispanic seat.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2020, 08:26:40 AM »

Three Latino VRA seats is indeed possible.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/200a8c13-5182-4e0a-b47e-07228fb2341b
the most adversely affected area is the East Valley; the 5th is forced north, which has a domino effect that impacts every other majority-white Maricopa CD.

Thanks. Both the Maricopa Hispanic seats aren't quite majority by voting age population - though I imagine at least one would be by now. I know in Texas it's generally assumed you need considerably more than 50% to make it perform. Does the same hold true in Arizona, or are the turnout differentials lower?
There are two things here that need to be disentangled.
1. 2010 Census data vs 2020 Census data
2. Latino VAP thresholds
This map was drawn on the assumption that 2010 total population figures are going to similar to 2020 voting age population figures.
As for VAP matters, Thresholds are lower I guess in Arizona, though it doesn't hurt at all if you want to have a majority, and generally the mid-50s are the sweet spot in terms of total population (case in point: AZ-03 as it exists right now).
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2020, 12:12:34 AM »

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #12 on: March 28, 2020, 12:37:47 AM »

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #13 on: March 28, 2020, 01:04:36 AM »

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.
The downtown area described is too large for one district anyway.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2020, 01:30:17 AM »

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.
It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2020, 08:57:59 AM »

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.
It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.

Isn't "Downtown" Scottsdale in that southwestern extension of the city though?   That part of Scottsdale is Democratic.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #16 on: March 28, 2020, 10:31:21 AM »

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.
It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.

Isn't "Downtown" Scottsdale in that southwestern extension of the city though?   That part of Scottsdale is Democratic.

Probably just leans Democrat and isnt what I would call part of a sink.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2020, 12:23:50 PM »

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.
It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.
No and no. This is a population-balanced 6-4 D map (7-3 if O'Halleran can hold on--AZ Republicans are seriously packed in  the far northwest valley, far east valley, and along the Colorado River.) By lumping in R-leaning Scottsdale with the white liberal core of Phoenix and college town Tempe, you get a D+19 district, but you allow for four more Maricopa-based Dem districts in Peoria/Glendale, South Phoenix/Buckeye, and Mesa/Chandler.)

It would look like this:


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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2020, 06:49:47 PM »

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.
It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.
No and no. This is a population-balanced 6-4 D map (7-3 if O'Halleran can hold on--AZ Republicans are seriously packed in  the far northwest valley, far east valley, and along the Colorado River.) By lumping in R-leaning Scottsdale with the white liberal core of Phoenix and college town Tempe, you get a D+19 district, but you allow for four more Maricopa-based Dem districts in Peoria/Glendale, South Phoenix/Buckeye, and Mesa/Chandler.)

It would look like this:



that map has some eerie similarities to the 1980s map, superficially speaking.
What is the Native % in the Navajo district?
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2020, 07:17:37 PM »

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.
It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.
No and no. This is a population-balanced 6-4 D map (7-3 if O'Halleran can hold on--AZ Republicans are seriously packed in  the far northwest valley, far east valley, and along the Colorado River.) By lumping in R-leaning Scottsdale with the white liberal core of Phoenix and college town Tempe, you get a D+19 district, but you allow for four more Maricopa-based Dem districts in Peoria/Glendale, South Phoenix/Buckeye, and Mesa/Chandler.)

It would look like this:



that map has some eerie similarities to the 1980s map, superficially speaking.
What is the Native % in the Navajo district?
26% by total population, 22% by voting age population.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2020, 07:23:31 PM »

That isn't far from expectation I guess.
What about the PVI? R+4?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2020, 11:45:49 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11badf23-e62b-40e6-b982-624e8a6cb4cd

AZ-01 is pretty maximized in terms of its Native %, AZ-03 becomes a few more points R but remains solid D by a mile, AZ-05 pulls into Pinal, AZ-04 loses a ton of territory in its western areas and in turn gains exurban areas in in northern Maricopa, both AZ-06 and AZ-08 move south, AZ-07 goes into Mesa, and a new Hispanic district in the West Valley takes territory from the current 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 8th CDs.
5 Clinton and 5 Trump districts, but this map is probably likelier than not to be 6D-4D as the 2020s roll on.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #22 on: April 01, 2020, 12:54:57 AM »

That isn't far from expectation I guess.
What about the PVI? R+4?
R+8. It's a sacrifice, but it allows for a pretty safe 6-4 Dem majority by allowing for the Yuma and Tuscon seats to all be safe D.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #23 on: April 01, 2020, 03:07:40 AM »

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.
It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.
No and no. This is a population-balanced 6-4 D map (7-3 if O'Halleran can hold on--AZ Republicans are seriously packed in  the far northwest valley, far east valley, and along the Colorado River.) By lumping in R-leaning Scottsdale with the white liberal core of Phoenix and college town Tempe, you get a D+19 district, but you allow for four more Maricopa-based Dem districts in Peoria/Glendale, South Phoenix/Buckeye, and Mesa/Chandler.)

It would look like this:



Just looking at it I have doubts to that maps legality. That grey district certainly doesn't look like it's anywhere near a HVAP majority, it looks more like a HVAP in the low 40s.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2020, 03:10:08 AM »

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.
It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.
No and no. This is a population-balanced 6-4 D map (7-3 if O'Halleran can hold on--AZ Republicans are seriously packed in  the far northwest valley, far east valley, and along the Colorado River.) By lumping in R-leaning Scottsdale with the white liberal core of Phoenix and college town Tempe, you get a D+19 district, but you allow for four more Maricopa-based Dem districts in Peoria/Glendale, South Phoenix/Buckeye, and Mesa/Chandler.)

It would look like this:



Just looking at it I have doubts to that maps legality. That grey district certainly doesn't look like it's anywhere near a HVAP majority, it looks more like a HVAP in the low 40s.
Two things to consider.
1. 2010 HVAP data is not that relevant for a 2020 map, you ought to look at 2010 total population proportions instead.
2. The share of Pinal in that seat is actually quite a bit more non-white relative to the county as a whole. Looks can be deceiving.
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