2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821194116288513?s=20
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821888181325826?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821194116288513?s=20
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821888181325826?s=20

What does this mean for Tom O'Halleran?

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821194116288513?s=20
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821888181325826?s=20

What does this mean for Tom O'Halleran?

He's almost certainly screwed with this map. Not only is the Native base split, the seat also takes in hard R territory such as Yavapai.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821194116288513?s=20
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821888181325826?s=20

What does this mean for Tom O'Halleran?

He's almost certainly screwed with this map. Not only is the Native base split, the seat also takes in hard R territory such as Yavapai.

Mind you when they say starting block, they mean STARTING BLOCK. Go back and check the 2010 thread to see how the comparative plans to this proposal were the proverbial clay to build districts from. The final plan barely resembles the proposed maps, you have to really squint to see it. All this really shows is what they want the geographic core of the the districts to be, with everything emanating from that core changing.

For example, I expect the seat labeled AZ-02 to go through a bunch of changes because of native groups and their desire to have some access. Like the map splits a few reservations, which is instantly illegal. But that is fine, cause this a rough plan for their geographic bases.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821194116288513?s=20
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821888181325826?s=20

What does this mean for Tom O'Halleran?

He's almost certainly screwed with this map. Not only is the Native base split, the seat also takes in hard R territory such as Yavapai.

Mind you when they say starting block, they mean STARTING BLOCK. Go back and check the 2010 thread to see how the comparative plans to this proposal were the proverbial clay to build districts from. The final plan barely resembles the proposed maps, you have to really squint to see it. All this really shows is what they want the geographic core of the the districts to be, with everything emanating from that core changing.

For example, I expect the seat labeled AZ-02 to go through a bunch of changes because of native groups and their desire to have some access. Like the map splits a few reservations, which is instantly illegal. But that is fine, cause this a rough plan for their geographic bases.

Yes, the only two factors that were considered for this map were population and compactness. Important attributes such as COIs, race, native lands were not considered at all in the grid map process.

O'Halleran is almost certainly gonna get a better seat than the one shown.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821194116288513?s=20
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821888181325826?s=20

What does this mean for Tom O'Halleran?

He's almost certainly screwed with this map. Not only is the Native base split, the seat also takes in hard R territory such as Yavapai.

Mind you when they say starting block, they mean STARTING BLOCK. Go back and check the 2010 thread to see how the comparative plans to this proposal were the proverbial clay to build districts from. The final plan barely resembles the proposed maps, you have to really squint to see it. All this really shows is what they want the geographic core of the the districts to be, with everything emanating from that core changing.

For example, I expect the seat labeled AZ-02 to go through a bunch of changes because of native groups and their desire to have some access. Like the map splits a few reservations, which is instantly illegal. But that is fine, cause this a rough plan for their geographic bases.

Yes, the only two factors that were considered for this map were population and compactness. Important attributes such as COIs, race, native lands were not considered at all in the grid map process.

O'Halleran is almost certainly gonna get a better seat than the one shown.

If it isn't AZ-02, what is the apparent 5th Dem seat on this map?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was able to create a 6-3 R AZ map by not changing the current districts too much. O'Halleren and Kirkpatrick get screwed in my map. lol

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09be0652-9349-4805-8486-de903bf0a898

[If my soul was made of stone]

If this map goes through (which hopefully it won't due to flagrant violations of COI and Native representation), then we'd have Gosar beating O'Halleran in 2022, which is both nightmarish and bitterly ironic given that Gosar already lives in O'Halleran's district (Flagstaff, a very crunchy place for a fascist to set up shop).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Drew up the Commission's grid draft in DRA. 5D-4R in 2016 and 2020, however the 5th is a lot closer than it looks (Trump+2) so it would probably become 6D-3R in a couple years.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a4cf6a5f-4142-4d74-9c83-f57a9dd9a4f0

[Devils30]

It's probably best if they make AZ-1 a more compact district and draw AZ-6 to be an even Scottsdale based seat. A good map would make 6-3 either way possible in a 2010 or 2018 and 5-4 in a 2020 type year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like they kinda split up Hispanics in downtown Pheonix.

Obviously things are going to change, but if this were the final map Dems should be quite happen. It seems like most maps naturally fall to 5D-4R on 2020 numbers unless you violate VRA or max pack blue Pheonix, but the competative and rapidly D trending 5th is quite good news for them as by the end of the decade it should be pretty blue unless current trends suddenly stall or reverse.

[Torie]

In redoing the Mathismander, I was reminded how much I hate it. It ignores county lines, muni lines, compactness, everything. So, I restored order to that mess (clicking on that “city” utility speeds things up to near warp speed), and of course continue to refuse to do that ridiculous joining of Yuma and Tucson across empty desert that is not required by the VRA or anything else.  

My map is best I’m sure, and I doubt anyone can cause me to change my mind about that. It’s a freaking shame it probably will not be enacted into law. It's lonely at the top.  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d342056e-01a0-4dba-9df5-5edff4e71a6a

[Sol]

AZ-02 seems questionable imo wrt: the VRA. Also, that map splits the O'odham reservation.

[Torie]

The 88 residents in Maricopa County dividing  the reservation put back in. Thanks. We disagree about the VRA. I won't debate that one again.

[S019]

Did you seriously eliminate the Tucson seat? What COI is represented by Yavapai and Cochise?

[dpmapper]

Agreed that Cochise doesn't belong with Yavapai, though neither do Greenlee or Graham, for that matter.  Graham and Greenlee are more connected to Cochise than anywhere else (separated from the north by reservations) so it's best to put them in AZ-2 rather than AZ-1.  That also allows AZ-3 to pull even more out of the Phoenix area. 

[Torie]

This one make everyone happy? Yes, I thought not.  

[Stuart98]

Fair map:



President 2020:


3 and 7 are majority hispanic, 1 is majority minority.

AZ geography is really bad for pubs and getting worse.

EDIT: Modified map to make the 2nd more competitive.

[Roll Roons]

New map draft:

https://twitter.com/A_R_Stumpf/status/1448091470758662147

I'll never understand why they can't just keep the district numbering consistent.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New map draft:

https://twitter.com/A_R_Stumpf/status/1448091470758662147

That 1st looks like bad news for David Schweikert.

[Devils30]

The state legislative maps don't look bad for Dems. Possible it's a 5-4 Trump map but any suburban Phoenix seat that's like Trump +2 might not last long for Rs.

[JerryArkansas]

The state legislative maps don't look bad for Dems. Possible it's a 5-4 Trump map but any suburban Phoenix seat that's like Trump +2 might not last long for Rs.

Its a 5-4 Biden map with another close-ish district in the metro.  O'Halleran is screwed though.

[Devils30]

The state legislative maps don't look bad for Dems. Possible it's a 5-4 Trump map but any suburban Phoenix seat that's like Trump +2 might not last long for Rs.

Its a 5-4 Biden map with another close-ish district in the metro.  O'Halleran is screwed though.

That's fine, the current AZ-1 is kind of ridiculous and not even trending one way or another. If I was Dems I'd much prefer a 5-4 Biden map with the 5th in the suburbs along with a 52-47% Trump suburban seat instead of keeping AZ-1 intact.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I like Tom O'Halleran but I care more about topline numbers than the fates of individual incumbents.

[S019]

I really don't get why they can't do Santa Cruz+Cochise+Tucson



It looks nice and compact and has the bonus of being competitive, Biden+5 (you can also still draw the border VRA seat with this configuration)