2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[lfromnj]

Republicans seem to be very hurt by geography in Arizona. The NW corner of the state and even NW Mauricio’s County are pretty much where Republicans are concentrated

Not he majority of the Republicans are in Maricopa, the actual geographical advantage is the hispanic lack of voters advantage which spreads the votes among a greater population, despite getting like72% of the vote Clinton only got like 120k votes.

3 VRA hispanic seats seems anyway absurd to me considering they are like 20% of the voters. If its the most natural compact seat then draw it but dont try to go for a 3rd VRA hispanic seat.

[lfromnj]

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.

It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.

[lfromnj]

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.

It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.

Isn't "Downtown" Scottsdale in that southwestern extension of the city though?   That part of Scottsdale is Democratic.

Probably just leans Democrat and isnt what I would call part of a sink.

[lfromnj]

So we can definitely kiss AZ-01 and AZ-02 goodbye with the inevitable Republican gerrymander. Dems will be confined to 2 seats in Phoenix and 1 in Tucson

Madigan is going to have his work cut out for him in making up for the states where Dems will be gerrymandered to oblivion, that's for sure

Yup. Democrats stupidly ceded their map-drawing ability in Virginia back to Republicans, turned their biggest states into commissions, and Republicans are going to nuke Florida, Texas, and Georgia into oblivion. Democrats are losing the House in 2022 for sure, it’s just a question of how bad will it be.

Hey AZ and CA provably even out by itself.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/09/28/arizona-a-truly-fair-map/#comment-611272

Here's a decent map I see on RRH.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/09/28/arizona-a-truly-fair-map/#comment-611272

Here's a decent map I see on RRH.

That map is a blatant Republican gerrymander, if you want to see a genuinely fair map, take a look at Arizona’s current congressional district map.

Btw the poster that created that map isn't even a Republican. He's just a Democrat on that site. Plenty of R's in the comments complain about that map. Anyway both sides are unhappy.

Show whats actually gerrymandered there?
Keeping Northern AZ whole?
The Pima county split is about the most favorable type of way to split Tucson for D's.  Do you have any problem with Maricopa? I guess yellow and blue could be made horizontal instead of vertically paralllel. This would create a Safe R and Likely D instead of a tossup and lean R seat.

It has 4 Clinton seats and 2 more Trump seats under 7 points.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/09/28/arizona-a-truly-fair-map/#comment-611272

Here's a decent map I see on RRH.

That map is a blatant Republican gerrymander, if you want to see a genuinely fair map, take a look at Arizona’s current congressional district map.

Btw the poster that created that map isn't even a Republican. He's just a Democrat on that site. Plenty of R's in the comments complain about that map. Anyway both sides are unhappy.

Show whats actually gerrymandered there?
Keeping Northern AZ whole?
The Pima county split is about the most favorable type of way to split Tucson for D's.  Do you have any problem with Maricopa? I guess yellow and blue could be made horizontal instead of vertically paralllel. This would create a Safe R and Likely D instead of a tossup and lean R seat.

It has 4 Clinton seats and 2 more Trump seats under 7 points.

The way the Tucson boundaries are drawn and especially the use of CVAP rather than VAP which, I believe is a departure from how it is generally currently done and if so, is simply inexcusable in anything claiming to be a fair map.  

Also, even if he’s a Democrat, RRH’s site rules forbid posts that so much as express pro-Democratic sentiments (IIRC, they say such posts “will not be tolerated”).  They’d *never* allow a thread for a user map that was anything short of an R gerrymander as a rule.  I mean, most RRH users think AZ and PA’s court maps were radical Democratic gerrymanders and that a fair map of Ohio would leave everything safe R except for two hyper-packed D seats  

Lol, I literally put my 14D-3R IL map up on RRH and they let it stay up and they enjoyed it. That is literally the most extreme D gerrymander possible.
https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/29/illinois-14d-3r/

They allow all redistricting discussion to stay up,(why I joined btw, for the redistricting discussion)
And if you just want to use VAP then you can just draw one seat in Tucson itself and make the rest Safe R. Using CVAP helps Democrats here as it allows you to create a white suburban seat.


If you just wanted a Tucson+ Santa Cruz based seat this is what you get, This moves it to Trump +5 and Mcsally +3. Do you want that instead?



Or this, if you didn't want to use the CVAP.  Trump +6, Mcsally +6.

I mean PA's map was merely just a D tilting map with some moderate decisions here and there although Mathis literally abused NY style 10% population deviation for state legislative maps which suggests she isn't really non partisan.

[lfromnj]

courtmander doesn't mean total gerrymander, it means multiple small decisions pushed towards one party. The best case to show this in PA is how they switched the slice of Montgomery taken for the Bucks county district which was clean in the old map unlike the rest of SEPA. The GOP took an R leaning exurban slice and a GOP leaning court would have kept that if they somehow agreed to redraw the maps. The D court took an inner ring suburban slice to make the Bucks district a bit more D leaning. Simple decisions like that. Its not a gerrymander because they did have to take a slice of Montgomery realistically but it still shows some intentions of the court. Im not saying how I would have done the district Im just pointing out basic reality.



PA 10th is similar with a unique swing district created from central PA.
Arizona is quite a bit gerrymandered

AZ 9th literally splits Scottsdale/Mesa/Chandler and takes Phoenix to create the most white dem district possible.

And to show you Colleen Mathis's intentions, look at the legislative maps and look at the population deviations and look at the partisanship for the district. Its clear Democrats got underpopulated districts and Rs got overpopulated districts.


Look at the population deviation column. Notice how its basically correlated with partisanship?
There is literally one other state in the nation that abuses population deviation to the degree of this. The NY state senate/house. This basically gave Democrats an extra 3/4 of a legislative seat which is pretty big considering the chamber is almost tied right now.

[lfromnj]

courtmander doesn't mean total gerrymander, it means multiple small decisions pushed towards one party. The best case to show this in PA is how they switched the slice of Montgomery taken for the Bucks county district which was clean in the old map unlike the rest of SEPA. The GOP took an R leaning exurban slice and a GOP leaning court would have kept that if they somehow agreed to redraw the maps. The D court took an inner ring suburban slice to make the Bucks district a bit more D leaning. Simple decisions like that.

PA 10th is similar with a unique swing district created from central PA.



Similar example of a possible VA courtmander. It does still focus on generally keeping COI's together but it does tip the Richmond district back to firmly GOP leaning by taking different slices of Chesterfield county.

Ultimately stuff like this kind of appropriately complicates the notion of a gerrymander. There are a lot of decisions that happen in drawing maps where there are multiple equally good (or equally cruddy) prospects available, and the choice you make will have a clear partisan effect. I think conflating those choices with gerrymandering is a little misleading ultimately, because the PA Court Map is ultimately pretty fair--they make choices which favor Democrats but those choices are as reasonable as the Republican alternative.

Personally when I draw maps I try to evaluate reasonable choices by analyzing Communities of Interest--but if there's not anything obvious I'll usually go for the option which brings the state closer to an accurate reflection of its partisan balance.

Fair enough to describe it that way. Im just describing a courtmander as tipping the scales. Not going all out in messiness. Whats your opinion on the AZ legislative data I showed above?

[lfromnj]

Do like it tack, you did follow city lines in Maricopa as much as possible which is the best thing to do there as county lines are not there.

Poor Flagstaff gets Paul Gosar though

[lfromnj]

My attempt at a fair and clean AZ map, that also solves the Tucson discussion from before (which seems dumb to me? there are plenty of ways to draw 2 good districts in the area, though splitting Tucson is unavoidable imo)

Your 1st district does not take up all the reservations (I am completely sure there is at least one missing in NW Arizona that is taken up by the current 1st) and I am not sure it's a great look to go out of one's way to take all the reservations possible only to have the district clock in at Trump+9.
It might also be that you can't take them all without overpopulating it or else screwing up badly all the others, though.

That one doesn't matter. however he did split one reservation between Pinal and Maricopa county which I think he should take in as its one reservation I think that got split. The reason why AZ01 is a bit more D leaning is because it has flagstaff which is white liberals. Overall I did like tack's Maricopa and southern AZ districts although not the biggest fan of northern AZ.

[lfromnj]

My take on a COI-based fair map. Should be 4D-4R-2S.



It keeps northern AZ intact (this is a very real COI that should be followed as closely as possible), creates a Pinal-based CD, does the classic Tucson-Yuma split, and then chops up Maricopa as cleanly as possible.

Link to map?

[lfromnj]

Link to map?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::aa0ac11a-d432-4b7c-947f-113fbc7ac6b2

The share link blairite not the link at top.

[lfromnj]

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/10/08/five-finalists-to-lead-independent-redistricting-committee-chosen/

The five finalists are:

Nicole Cullen, an American history, American government and criminal justice teacher at Perry High School in Gilbert.
Thomas Loquvam, general counsel and vice president of corporate services at the utility company EPCOR. He previously served as general counsel at Pinnacle West, the parent company of Arizona Public Service.
Erika Schupak Neuberg, a psychologist with a practice in Scottsdale who serves as a national board member for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Gregory Teesdale, an Oro Valley resident and former executive at venture capital companies
Robert Wilson, who owns a business consulting practice and gun store in Flagstaff.

Description of all 5 in the article, feel free to read through.

[lfromnj]

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/10/08/five-finalists-to-lead-independent-redistricting-committee-chosen/

The five finalists are:

Nicole Cullen, an American history, American government and criminal justice teacher at Perry High School in Gilbert.
Thomas Loquvam, general counsel and vice president of corporate services at the utility company EPCOR. He previously served as general counsel at Pinnacle West, the parent company of Arizona Public Service.
Erika Schupak Neuberg, a psychologist with a practice in Scottsdale who serves as a national board member for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Gregory Teesdale, an Oro Valley resident and former executive at venture capital companies
Robert Wilson, who owns a business consulting practice and gun store in Flagstaff.

Description of all 5 in the article, feel free to read through.

Based on the bios, Cullen and Neuberg are probably the only ones who aren't guaranteed to be partisan Republicans

Neuberg dropped out by the way.

https://twitter.com/AZCourts/status/1317119396175806466

[lfromnj]

@torie the commision is being heavily R stacked , I see little reason the GOP won't try to keep the very "fair" AZ 9th as close to its current form as possible.


Where is your 5th D seat?

[lfromnj]

I'd be shocked if any of Gila, Navajo, and Apache counties end up in the East Tuscon instead of the Northern AZ district. Cutting Mohave and putting Lake Havasu City in with AZ-03 is the much more obvious way of dealing with the population imbalance.

There is a reason.

Where is the border Hispanic VRA seat?

The Pima district?

I don't see a reason to butcher that area, there isn't serious racially polarized voting in the Tucson area as far as I can tell.

[lfromnj]

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/10/08/five-finalists-to-lead-independent-redistricting-committee-chosen/

The five finalists are:

Nicole Cullen, an American history, American government and criminal justice teacher at Perry High School in Gilbert.
Thomas Loquvam, general counsel and vice president of corporate services at the utility company EPCOR. He previously served as general counsel at Pinnacle West, the parent company of Arizona Public Service.
Erika Schupak Neuberg, a psychologist with a practice in Scottsdale who serves as a national board member for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Gregory Teesdale, an Oro Valley resident and former executive at venture capital companies
Robert Wilson, who owns a business consulting practice and gun store in Flagstaff.

Description of all 5 in the article, feel free to read through.

Based on the bios, Cullen and Neuberg are probably the only ones who aren't guaranteed to be partisan Republicans

Neuberg dropped out by the way.

https://twitter.com/AZCourts/status/1317119396175806466

This is likely to end in a deadlock with all the D commissioners voting for Cullen and all the R commissioners voting for Wilson.  What happens then?

AZ supreme court picks?

[lfromnj]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Neither is AZ-1

AZ01 is definitely not VRA protected. Just don't split those reservations.

[lfromnj]

^Especially in Pima county, there isn't significant racial block voting as far as I can tell.

[lfromnj]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Yes it is, and I am the lawyer, and you are not.

Anyway, I don't want to debate the point now too much. But there is nothing that requires a VRA CD that has to stretch over a 100 miles of empty desert, and the CD probably has a majority of Hispanic voters, or at least Hispanic CVAP (circa 5 years ago, 39.3% of the CVAP was Hispanic (probably higher now), and AZ has closed primaries), voting in a Dem primary, in any event. Moreover, Hispanics are becoming less of a distinctive voting block, and there is less and less white hostility to voting for them, as time goes by. I suspect Hispanics and the VRA are on its last legs at this point, but we shall see about that as time goes by.

Case dismissed. Next!

I mean, this is the tricky thing about the VRA right? There ought to be at least a pretty strong shot for the Latino candidate of choice to win both the primary and the general, and since Latino voters tend to be less politically unified that does require at least somewhat higher Latino percentages.

In any case it's definitely possible to have an at least slightly more Latino AZ-03 while still making AZ-02 more R (like this map I posted upthread) and if the GOP-dominated commission is trying to draw a fake fair map, I imagine they'd like to avoid controversy related to the VRA.

For the GOp map why keep the arm to Yuma?
Just put it with Maricopa?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1352307813083729921

This is her donation history. Seems very broad but she did donate to O'Hallerhan.  Considering he is the dude that gets the  most screwed in an actually fair map thats a good sign for him.(Kirkpatrick will take a hit no matter what but she wouldn't be screwed.)

[lfromnj]

AZ IRC met on the 27th and narrowed down who they're deciding on to three firms


https://www.azmirror.com/2021/04/27/redistricting-commission-will-give-mapping-consultants-time-to-respond-to-comments-criticism/

The three firms are HaystaqDNA, Taylor English Decision, LLC, and Timmons Group

Per AZMirror, all three firms have faced accusations of partisan bias, Timmons Group and Taylor English Decisions are accused of GOP bias, while HaystaqDNA is accused of Dem bias. In 2012, chair Colleen Mathis chose a firm accused of Dem bias and the result was a map that did largely favor Democrats, our independent this time seems to be truly independent, but of course no one actually is, which firm is picked will tell us a lot about which map we get.

‘Democratic bias’ here meaning ‘doesn’t attempt a GOP gerrymander’

The Arizona maps were definitely an attempt at gerrymandering the state based on data available at the time. It worked congressionally and was mostly worth it, although I think it may have been a dummymander at the legislative level. The correlation between how underpopulated/overpopulated the legislative seats was directly tied to the partisanship of the seats with Democratic seats being underpopulated and GOP seats being overpopulated.  Other independent/bipartisan commissions had issues(See Washington/NJ) but only Arizona was this bad to the point of abusing population variation. One can't abuse it congressionally but still shows a very strong intent.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1450145715619958787

[lfromnj]

So the most recent Arizona map seems like a pretty solid 7-2.

I'm shocked, I tell you.

It has 4 Biden seats and the 5th one should be a Biden seat as well once they adjust the deviation.

538 of course is being idiotic.