2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Nyvin]

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.

It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.

Isn't "Downtown" Scottsdale in that southwestern extension of the city though?   That part of Scottsdale is Democratic.

[Nyvin]

Just my take on two hispanic CVAP seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/27ce5e1f-05d6-4356-a161-a26d89b75311





AZ-2 is kinda boxed in by the Native and Hispanic districts, so not much to do there really.

AZ-1 is 25% Native American CVAP

AZ-3 is 48.7% Hispanic CVAP

AZ-7 is 55.3% Hispanic CVAP

Map overall is 4R-4D-2s.   By 2022 AZ-9 most likely won't be competitive anymore.

AZ-1: 44.9% Clinton - 46.0% Trump
AZ-2: 46.8% Clinton - 45.8% Trump
AZ-3: 60% Clinton - 33.6% Trump
AZ-4: 27.8% Clinton - 66.2% Trump
AZ-5: 33.2% Clinton - 58.4% Trump
AZ-6: 38.6% Clinton - 54.9% Trump
AZ-7: 71.6% Clinton - 21.5% Trump
AZ-8: 40.4% Clinton - 53% Trump
AZ-9: 48.2% Clinton - 43.1% Trump
AZ-10: 54.7% Clinton - 37% Trump

[Nyvin]

So we can definitely kiss AZ-01 and AZ-02 goodbye with the inevitable Republican gerrymander. Dems will be confined to 2 seats in Phoenix and 1 in Tucson

At least 2 Dem seats i Phoenix are needed to avoid a dummmander.  3 is ideal.  A 6R-4D map is pretty fair anyways.

What about when Democrats are winning a majority of the statewide vote (which seems inevitable at this point)?

[Nyvin]

Do the Maricopa/Pinal reservations have to be included in AZ-1 or is it just the northeastern ones with San Carlos/Fort Apache?

[Nyvin]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Neither is AZ-1

[Nyvin]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Neither is AZ-1

AZ01 is definitely not VRA protected. Just don't split those reservations.

It's not the VRA - There's rules the commission has to follow in regard to COI's and the Indian Reservations are quite heavily weighted in the rules.

[Nyvin]

*shrugs* we'll see I guess, but they've never made an AZ-1 that didn't include the White Mountain and San Carlos reservations.  Definitely seems "practicable" to me to include them.

[Nyvin]

DRA -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8633cdca-2edd-4bcc-bae0-43e11f82c510

Looks pretty fair overall, lots of potential competitive districts.

I could see this being 6D-3R by the end of the decade if the metros continue to move left.

[Nyvin]

DRA of 13.9 -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7f22ee2b-7a0e-47bb-a293-427ea033a719

[Nyvin]

They don't have Leg. map 16.1, but here's 16.0 on DRA -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3c598e73-8767-4395-86a7-42586f3aa34e

It looks like there's more long term upside for Dems here than GOP.   There's only 8 R seats outside of the Phoenix and Tucson metros, and seems like the R's have to depend on winning more of the marginal seats than D's do.  

Both chambers have two year terms so the next good year for Democrats should see them winning a majority in either or both chambers.

Was there any major changes between 16.0 and 16.1?