2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dems once again got rolled and took it lying down. Absolutely pathetic.

[David Hume]

They don't have Leg. map 16.1, but here's 16.0 on DRA -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3c598e73-8767-4395-86a7-42586f3aa34e

It looks like there's more long term upside for Dems here than GOP.   There's only 8 R seats outside of the Phoenix and Tucson metros, and seems like the R's have to depend on winning more of the marginal seats than D's do.  

Both chambers have two year terms so the next good year for Democrats should see them winning a majority in either or both chambers.

Was there any major changes between 16.0 and 16.1?

AZ GOP down ballot usually outperform. Besides, they have to win metro seats anyway, considering the population distribution in AZ.

[Torie]

I cleaned up the “gerrymandered” lines between AZ-06 and AZ-07 to parse just how much the unnecessarily erose lines that were adopted moved the needle to the Dems. The answer is 85 basis points. AZ-06 as “cleaned up” was carried by Trump over Biden by 1.5%. AZ-07 is still majority Hispanic by the way. The map changes reduce the Hispanic VAP from 55.5% to 53.9%. The lines were not made more erose for VRA reasons, but rather for partisan reasons.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/49bc3244-06c7-42ad-b776-343b96d3af4c

[Brittain33]

I cleaned up the “gerrymandered” lines between AZ-06 and AZ-07 to parse just how much the unnecessarily erose lines that were adopted moved the needle to the Dems.

The erosity moved the map toward a compromise that both parties could accept, and a map which is already expected to be 6-3 R in 2022. Do you think it was unreasonable or unnecessary to achieve some proportionality with the changes?

[Torie]

I cleaned up the “gerrymandered” lines between AZ-06 and AZ-07 to parse just how much the unnecessarily erose lines that were adopted moved the needle to the Dems.

The erosity moved the map toward a compromise that both parties could accept, and a map which is already expected to be 6-3 R in 2022. Do you think it was unreasonable or unnecessary to achieve some proportionality with the changes?

Proportionality is one prong of the list of factors that should be taken into account. In my view, one weighs the proportionality gained against the amount of erosity (or chops) added. It's a balancing test. Myself, I don't think the prong into Cochise is worth it, but some added erosity in the Tuscon bi-chop probably would be, so I might come out somewhere in between. One should also look at trends. Tuscon is trending away from the Pubs at warp speed. The Pubs may well pick up the seat in 2022, but I suspect it will be a short term lease unless the Pub gains with Hispanics, particularly urban Hispanics in the Southwest, becomes a real "thing" rather than a blip for a macho strong man.

In any event, the needle moved less than I would have guessed. The tie breaker vote was the epitome of moderation in all things.

tl:dr: No.  

[nclib]

Which CDs/Reps. changed numbers?

CD-1 -> CD-2 O'Halleran
CD-6 -> CD-1 Schweikert
CD-2 -> CD-6  Kirkpatrick's replacement

What else?

[Roll Roons]

Which CDs/Reps. changed numbers?

CD-1 -> CD-2 O'Halleran
CD-6 -> CD-1 Schweikert
CD-2 -> CD-6  Kirkpatrick's replacement

What else?

AZ-04 and AZ-09 basically switched numbers, as did AZ-03 and AZ-07. It's really only AZ-05 and AZ-08 that stayed the same.

It's super annoying.

[Oryxslayer]

Which CDs/Reps. changed numbers?

CD-1 -> CD-2 O'Halleran
CD-6 -> CD-1 Schweikert
CD-2 -> CD-6  Kirkpatrick's replacement

What else?

AZ-04 and AZ-09 basically switched numbers, as did AZ-03 and AZ-07. It's really only AZ-05 and AZ-08 that stayed the same.

It's super annoying.

And unlike other states that follow that renumber, AZ doesn't have a consistent scheme. California and Florida go north -> south, PA and NC now go east -> west for example. In 2000 AZ went roughtly North to South, in 2010 they did a clockwise cycle into Maricopa, and now they are doing a clockwise cycle out of Maricopa.

[lfromnj]

yeah that Southern VRA seat is pretty horrible.

Rs were smart and basically used the argument that if Yuma should be part of the VRA seat then why shouldn't Cochise?

[Torie]

yeah that Southern VRA seat is pretty horrible.

Rs were smart and basically used the argument that if Yuma should be part of the VRA seat then why shouldn't Cochise?

The R's were dumb is they argued that, because the Cochise prong meant that AZ-06 needed to go deeper into a highly Dem, high turnout Woke white part of Tucson, in exchange for shedding the low turnout Hispanic real estate, plus a bit of Pub connector real estate.

[lfromnj]

yeah that Southern VRA seat is pretty horrible.

Rs were smart and basically used the argument that if Yuma should be part of the VRA seat then why shouldn't Cochise?

The R's were dumb is they argued that, because the Cochise prong meant that AZ-06 needed to go deeper into a highly Dem, high turnout Woke white part of Tucson, in exchange for shedding the low turnout Hispanic real estate, plus a bit of Pub connector real estate.

IIRC they went for 50.1% CVAP, so the last option would just be more Yuma/Phoenix which wouldn't help AZ02. One could also sue this as a racial gerrymander but that would likely just hurt Democrats mostly while maybe helping them a bit in Maricopa with AZ08 IMO. If Elias wins his lawsuit, it would be just like the NC 2016 lawsuit

[Oryxslayer]

yeah that Southern VRA seat is pretty horrible.

Rs were smart and basically used the argument that if Yuma should be part of the VRA seat then why shouldn't Cochise?

The R's were dumb is they argued that, because the Cochise prong meant that AZ-06 needed to go deeper into a highly Dem, high turnout Woke white part of Tucson, in exchange for shedding the low turnout Hispanic real estate, plus a bit of Pub connector real estate.

IIRC they went for 50.1% CVAP, so the last option would just be more Yuma/Phoenix which wouldn't help AZ02. One could also sue this as a racial gerrymander but that would likely just hurt Democrats mostly while maybe helping them a bit in Maricopa with AZ08 IMO. If Elias wins his lawsuit, it would be just like the NC 2016 lawsuit

TBH the only real potential place for a case is in regards to the native regions and how the NE seat went from a majority-minority coalition to a majority white seat because of Yavapai. And the map had to do this pairing to pass a vote by the commission, thanks to Redlines laid down by the swing vote, so there wasn't much the Dems could do despite their protests. And it could have gotten even more diverse if drawn differently when starting from the former lines. And it was previously performing based on the commissions test elections, and now it isn't according to their own data.

Of course a coalition seat is harder to argue in favor for than a 50% seat, but you can't get 3 50% cvap Hispanic seats or a 50% native seat it this state without getting uncompact.

[_.]

I tried my hand at a competitive gerrymander of Arizona using the 2020 census results.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%.

51/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
60/100 on the Compactness Index
46/100 on County Splitting
58/100 on the Minority Representation index
100/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential election in Arizona.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 9R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Arizona: 8R to 1D

2018 Arizona Attorney General Election: 7R to 2D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 8D to 1R

2018 Arizona Gubernatorial Election: 9R

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 9D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Arizona: 9D


The only thing that'd have made it better is if I managed 9 2016 Trump districts as well...

Wonder how many of these districts will vote Dem in 2024.


Opinions?

[patzer]

I'm impressed by how neat that map is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Without Voting Rights Redistricting is a disaster for D's if we can't hold onto AZ

Especially when the lines are drawn if VR passes the Crts since lines are already drawn are likely to agree with gerrymandering but we don't have VR anyways it doesn't matter

[GregTheGreat657]

I tried to create a fair map

Population Deviation: 0.16%

87/100 for Proportionality
78/100 for Compactness
51/100 for County Splitting
60/100 for Minority Representation
24/100 for Competitiveness

Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 Senate election: 7R to 2D
2016 Presidential election: 5D to 4R
2018 Attorney General election: 5D to 4R
2018 Senate election: 5D to 4R
2018 Governor election: 7R to 2D
2020 Senate election: 5D to 4R
2020 Presidential election: 5D to 4R

AZ-01 is located in Northern Arizona. Its PVI for 2016-2020 was R+12. Its PVI for 2012-2016 was R+11. It is 63% white, 14% Hispanic, 2% Black, 2% Asian, and 20% Native American. It consists of the entirety of Mojave, Coconino, Yavapai, Navajo, and Apache counties, as well as parts of Gila and Greenlee counties

AZ-02 is located in Southeastern Arizona. Its PVI for 2016-2020 was D+4. Its PVI for 2012-2016 was D+2. It is 51% White, 36% Hispanic, 6% Black, 5% Asian, and 5% Native American. It consists of the entirety of Graham, Cochise, and Santa Cruz counties, as well as parts of Pima County.

AZ-03 is located in South-Central Arizona. Its PVI for 2016-2020 was even, while its PVI for 2012-2016 was R+1. It is 50% White, 36% Hispanic, 5% Black, 4% Asian, and 7% Native American. It consists of parts of Pima and Pinal counties.

AZ-04 is located in Southwestern Arizona. Its PVI for 2016-2020 was R+9, while its PVI for 2012-2016 was R+10. It is 49% White, 39% Hispanic, 6% Black, 4% Asian, and 4% Native American. It consists of the entirety of Yuma and La Paz counties, as well as western Maricopa County.

AZ-05 is located in the easternmost suburbs and exurbs of Phoenix. Its PVI for 2016-2020 was R+13, while its PVI for 2012-2016 was R+16. It is 69% White, 18% Hispanic, 5% Black, 5% Asian, and 4% Native American. It consists of parts of Maricopa, Pinal, and Gila Counties.

AZ-06 is located in the southern portion of the city of Phoenix, as well as some of its eastern inner-ring suburbs, including most of Chandler and Tempe. It is 47% White, 30% Hispanic, 10% Black, 10% Asian, and 5% Native American. Its PVI for 2016-2020 was D+8, while its PVI for 2012-2016 was D+4.

AZ-07 is located in the center of Phoenix, as well as including all of Paradise Valley, and small portions of suburbs such as Scottsdale, Mesa, and Glendale. It is 43% White, 41% Hispanic, 9% Black, 4% Asian, and 6% Native American. Its PVI for 2016-2020 was D+11, while its PVI for 2012-2016 was D+7.

AZ-08 is located mostly in the western suburbs of Phoenix and includes parts of suburbs such as Glendale and Peoria, as well as western Phoenix. It is 36% White, 48% Hispanic, 10% Black, 5% Asian, and 4% Native American. Its PVI for 2016-2020 was D+4, while its PVI for 2012-2016 was D+1.

AZ-09 is located in northern Maricopa County and mostly consists of Phoenix and Scottsdale. It is 73% White, 14% Hispanic, 4% Black, 7% Asian, and 3% Native American. Its PVI for 2016-2020 was R+10, while its PVI for 2012-2016 was R+13.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hypothetical commission map had AZ gained a 10th district based on what they actually did. My guess the new district would've been another Hispanic seat in Pheonix, and 3 wouldn't have that weird little stick into Pheonix to grab extra Hispanics. The new 6th is prolly slightly bluer being pulled more in Tucson. However, the new Hispanic seat would push the 1rst and 4th outwards a bit making them slightly redder. The map would've almost certainly been a 5-5 breakdown on 2020. The functionality of the new 2nd as a Native opportunity seat could be increased since it could shed some R rurals and increase Native % at the same time. The new 9th would be able to be a bit less awkward and not have to grab Pheonix suburbs but could be more exclusively exurban/rural.

Kinda hoping AZ gains a 10th seat in 2030 which it seems on track to do unless it really underperforms badly again, and population shifts reverse.

10 seats seem slightly better from a COI perspective IMO, but maybe that just me.

[I’m not Stu]

I made a 6-3 GOP map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hypothetical commission map had AZ gained a 10th district based on what they actually did. My guess the new district would've been another Hispanic seat in Pheonix, and 3 wouldn't have that weird little stick into Pheonix to grab extra Hispanics. The new 6th is prolly slightly bluer being pulled more in Tucson. However, the new Hispanic seat would push the 1rst and 4th outwards a bit making them slightly redder. The map would've almost certainly been a 5-5 breakdown on 2020. The functionality of the new 2nd as a Native opportunity seat could be increased since it could shed some R rurals and increase Native % at the same time. The new 9th would be able to be a bit less awkward and not have to grab Pheonix suburbs but could be more exclusively exurban/rural.

Kinda hoping AZ gains a 10th seat in 2030 which it seems on track to do unless it really underperforms badly again, and population shifts reverse.

10 seats seem slightly better from a COI perspective IMO, but maybe that just me.

Nice map.

[I’m not Stu]

I made a 7-3 GOP 10 district map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I made a 7-3 GOP 10 district map.

This one ought to be called the Multiple Diamondback Ribbons.

[I’m not Stu]

I put both maps in one picture.