2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Arizona has gained at least one new house seat every single decade since the 1950s.
It is forecasted to gain another one in the 2020s.
Sorry for the decidedly non-spicy OP.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe6bc3b9-ee9f-43e0-86b3-18b5f9984750
this is what I am putting forth as a guess as to what the next decade's districts would look like.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it possible to draw a third Hispanic VRA district? Looks like using 2010 data you could get pretty close by sending your AZ-7 into Mesa and presumably the Hispanic population share has grown since then.

I was able to get AZ-07 up into Hispanic opportunity territory by merely swapping land with AZ-10. But this new seat would probably still be quite viable for Greg Stanton and whites would still be a big chunk of the D primary, so I assume in practice this would be a 2.5 Hispanic seat map now. Moreover, there would be loads of white liberals in this district, though I think Ruben Gallego would still be fine if Stanton stayed put in AZ-09. Moreover, I don't think that white Dems and Hispanic Dems would regularly back different candidates here? I could be wrong though...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Three Latino VRA seats is indeed possible.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/200a8c13-5182-4e0a-b47e-07228fb2341b
the most adversely affected area is the East Valley; the 5th is forced north, which has a domino effect that impacts every other majority-white Maricopa CD.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Reminder that AZ throws out the old map and starts anew, so the districts may not resemble the present ones. The cross-county native tribes to the NE and the Border Hispanics to the South need to stay together though, so its uncertain how much can actually change outside of Maricopa.

There certainly is a very strong chance of AZ-05 being pushed into Pinal in any case, though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Three Latino VRA seats is indeed possible.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/200a8c13-5182-4e0a-b47e-07228fb2341b
the most adversely affected area is the East Valley; the 5th is forced north, which has a domino effect that impacts every other majority-white Maricopa CD.

Thanks. Both the Maricopa Hispanic seats aren't quite majority by voting age population - though I imagine at least one would be by now. I know in Texas it's generally assumed you need considerably more than 50% to make it perform. Does the same hold true in Arizona, or are the turnout differentials lower?

There are two things here that need to be disentangled.
1. 2010 Census data vs 2020 Census data
2. Latino VAP thresholds
This map was drawn on the assumption that 2010 total population figures are going to similar to 2020 voting age population figures.
As for VAP matters, Thresholds are lower I guess in Arizona, though it doesn't hurt at all if you want to have a majority, and generally the mid-50s are the sweet spot in terms of total population (case in point: AZ-03 as it exists right now).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.

The downtown area described is too large for one district anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.

It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.

No and no. This is a population-balanced 6-4 D map (7-3 if O'Halleran can hold on--AZ Republicans are seriously packed in  the far northwest valley, far east valley, and along the Colorado River.) By lumping in R-leaning Scottsdale with the white liberal core of Phoenix and college town Tempe, you get a D+19 district, but you allow for four more Maricopa-based Dem districts in Peoria/Glendale, South Phoenix/Buckeye, and Mesa/Chandler.)

It would look like this:

that map has some eerie similarities to the 1980s map, superficially speaking.
What is the Native % in the Navajo district?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That isn't far from expectation I guess.
What about the PVI? R+4?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11badf23-e62b-40e6-b982-624e8a6cb4cd

AZ-01 is pretty maximized in terms of its Native %, AZ-03 becomes a few more points R but remains solid D by a mile, AZ-05 pulls into Pinal, AZ-04 loses a ton of territory in its western areas and in turn gains exurban areas in in northern Maricopa, both AZ-06 and AZ-08 move south, AZ-07 goes into Mesa, and a new Hispanic district in the West Valley takes territory from the current 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 8th CDs.
5 Clinton and 5 Trump districts, but this map is probably likelier than not to be 6D-4D as the 2020s roll on.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.

It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.

No and no. This is a population-balanced 6-4 D map (7-3 if O'Halleran can hold on--AZ Republicans are seriously packed in  the far northwest valley, far east valley, and along the Colorado River.) By lumping in R-leaning Scottsdale with the white liberal core of Phoenix and college town Tempe, you get a D+19 district, but you allow for four more Maricopa-based Dem districts in Peoria/Glendale, South Phoenix/Buckeye, and Mesa/Chandler.)

It would look like this:

Just looking at it I have doubts to that maps legality. That grey district certainly doesn't look like it's anywhere near a HVAP majority, it looks more like a HVAP in the low 40s.

Two things to consider.
1. 2010 HVAP data is not that relevant for a 2020 map, you ought to look at 2010 total population proportions instead.
2. The share of Pinal in that seat is actually quite a bit more non-white relative to the county as a whole. Looks can be deceiving.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some Tucson split is inevitable. However I tend to split it along white-Latino lines, with the most white areas going with Cochise and possibly Santa Cruz, and the most Latino areas going with Yuma, Santa Cruz if the white seat isn't taking it in, and if necessary, parts of Maricopa.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems the most profound change in AZ that comes from going from 9 seats to 10 is that the 3rd's share of Maricopa shrinks dramatically.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ef8f655e-675f-4264-aa78-80c03271bd49

Here is a map designed to correct for the D lean of the 2013-2023 map.
AZ-01: This seat largely replicates the previous map's AZ-01. It however withdraws from Yavapai and becomes majority-minority on paper in overall population (the current CD is 52% White or so). It also expands into Maricopa as to increase the Native %. 46W 28N 23H in 2018 total population, 52W 25N 19H in 2018 CVAP. It moves slightly to the right due to selection of precincts with a relatively high Hispanic % but also a strong GOP lean. R+2.
AZ-02: This seat doesn't change all that much. Interstate 10 is its border for a long stretch, but broadly it takes in white precincts without much regard to partisanship. It also moves to the right slightly. R+2.
AZ-03: Withdraws entirely from Metro Pheonix. Doesn't change too much, overall. It gains some precincts in Pinal, as well as Yuma. 60H 30W in 2018 total population, 50H 41W in 2018 CVAP. D+9.
AZ-04: Now has all of Yavapai, and loses all of its share of Pinal and Gila. Gains a wide swathe of land to the west of the 8th, 7th, and 1st - including areas with a major Hispanic presence formerly in the 3rd. Overall partisanship is almost exactly the same as the old AZ-04 - even the PVI is unchanged. R+21.
AZ-05: 2013-2023 map had this CD confined to Maricopa. This seat now exits Maricopa and begins to resemble the eastern half of the 2003-2013 AZ-05. Overall partisanship barely changes that much. R+17.
AZ-06: Moves south to take in some heavily white Dem trending area so that the Latino % in the now two Latino seats based in Maricopa are more firmed up. Loses some territory to nearby districts. Net effect of all these changes is to move it two points to the left. R+7.
AZ-07: Still a Latino district, though not necessarily entirely solidly Latino right now. Would elect a Latino however. Loses a lot of territory to the "new" 10th district, though this is probably the new CD moreso than the others as it is not really rooted in any of the 2013-2023 districts. 55H 30W in 2018 total population, 42W 42H in 2018 citizen VAP. D+8.
AZ-08: Loses territory to both the 7th and the 4th. Essentially stays the same partisan-wise and similar demographically. R+13.
AZ-09: Moves south and east and loses territory to its neighbors, while eating the western chunk of AZ-05. In the process it shifts half a dozen points to the right, but Greg Stanton could still run and win here. R+2.
AZ-10: This is a "new district" but in practice is, roughly, the western half of old AZ-09 and the eastern half of old AZ-07, with more of the latter. 53H 30W 11B in 2018 total population, 43W 38H 12B in 2018 citizen VAP. D+18.

Come 2022 the 7th's CVAP is likely boosted to sizable pluralities and the 10th in a clear lead, and when you consider the current AZ-07 as it is has a +23 percentage point advantage for Latinos among the broader population on 2010 figures, there is not much of a problem actually in my 7th and 10th.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does AZ law even require road contiguity? I'm yet to see evidence that would imply so.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is the kind of map the AZ GOP might have passed in their dream scenario.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/b1c87619-fa1d-474f-b420-c1fd6abea519

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can Grijalva's district be less than 50% Hispanic (specifically 46-48%)?

Depends on whether the Latino community candidate of choice reliably will win it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can Grijalva's district be less than 50% Hispanic (specifically 46-48%)?

Depends on whether the Latino community candidate of choice reliably will win it.

I'll let you be the judge:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/a91a4295-7217-462c-b2b7-541ad50ed18d

Pretty much all of the white Democratic primary voters in Tucson live in the other district. Clinton won AZ-03 by "only" 13 points, but I think Grijalva or another Hispanic Democrat would easily win both the primary and the general -- this district didn't even vote for McCain in 2016.

This map would also shore up O'Halleran and Schweikert.

Hmm, that White CVAP is quite high, but I don't know of any litigation that would render that district expressly illegal. However, turnout among border Hispanics is extremely low, so if Yuma can be put into that district, it'd probably a good thing. Is Yuma being used for anything very important?
Leaving that aside, there are also two reservation precincts that are apart from the rest of reservation in the 3rd. Splitting reservations ought to be avoided.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/59ea632e-754a-4ceb-a8dc-c480ad256519
experimented to see what a Dem gerrymander of the legislature would look like, This is what I got. Only 10 McSally '18 districts and 14 Trump '16 districts. Needless to say, this map has no chance of becoming law.

2018 senate numbers

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821194116288513?s=20
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821888181325826?s=20

What does this mean for Tom O'Halleran?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New map draft:

https://twitter.com/A_R_Stumpf/status/1448091470758662147

That 1st looks like bad news for David Schweikert.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I like Tom O'Halleran but I care more about topline numbers than the fates of individual incumbents.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Really?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any major news coming from the Commission as of late?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't the AZ Commission required to create competitive districts? This map certainly does that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the chances this horrific 6-2-1 map passes?

It's literally 5-4 Biden

A 5-4 Biden map is fair for Arizona. Also given how Ds have been performing in the state over time, it's unlikely they are whittled down to only 2 seats. It's not the 2000s anymore.