2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Stuart98]

10 district Arizona is dead, long live 9 district Arizona.

A least change map doesn't make sense here, the old map was just nonsensical in parts (particularly the 1st, which had no reason to go into Pima or Pinal).

Arizona geography is pretty bad for Rs, hard to draw a map without an R-held suburban district that's a ticking time bomb (or is already D to begin with).

Here's my attempt


Senate 2018


President 2016

[Sol]

Don't think the first belongs in maricopa

[Stuart98]

Don't think the first belongs in maricopa

It has to go there for Fort McDowell and Salt River reservations anyway and it's one of the less ugly ways of handling the thing. The Maricopa portion of the district is 35.1% of its total population and is McSally +4 (compared to the rest of the district being Sinema +5.5)

[Sol]

Don't think the first belongs in maricopa

It has to go there for Fort McDowell and Salt River reservations anyway and it's one of the less ugly ways of handling the thing. The Maricopa portion of the district is 35.1% of its total population and is McSally +4 (compared to the rest of the district being Sinema +5.5)

It doesn't have to go in there lol, the 1st isn't really a native influence district presently--it has a large population but it's only 22%

[Gpm21]

Don't think the first belongs in maricopa

It has to go there for Fort McDowell and Salt River reservations anyway and it's one of the less ugly ways of handling the thing. The Maricopa portion of the district is 35.1% of its total population and is McSally +4 (compared to the rest of the district being Sinema +5.5)

I tend to put those in 9 or 7, they are in Phoenix metro and Democratic. Not a fan of them being in 6 currently, but I guess the layperson tends to think they are Scottsdale/Fountain Hills maybe that's why.

[VAR]

Can Grijalva's district be less than 50% Hispanic (specifically 46-48%)?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can Grijalva's district be less than 50% Hispanic (specifically 46-48%)?

Depends on whether the Latino community candidate of choice reliably will win it.

[VAR]

Can Grijalva's district be less than 50% Hispanic (specifically 46-48%)?

Depends on whether the Latino community candidate of choice reliably will win it.

I'll let you be the judge:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/a91a4295-7217-462c-b2b7-541ad50ed18d

Pretty much all of the white Democratic primary voters in Tucson live in the other district. Clinton won AZ-03 by "only" 13 points, but I think Grijalva or another Hispanic Democrat would easily win both the primary and the general -- this district didn't even vote for McCain in 2016.

This map would also shore up O'Halleran and Schweikert.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can Grijalva's district be less than 50% Hispanic (specifically 46-48%)?

Depends on whether the Latino community candidate of choice reliably will win it.

I'll let you be the judge:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/a91a4295-7217-462c-b2b7-541ad50ed18d

Pretty much all of the white Democratic primary voters in Tucson live in the other district. Clinton won AZ-03 by "only" 13 points, but I think Grijalva or another Hispanic Democrat would easily win both the primary and the general -- this district didn't even vote for McCain in 2016.

This map would also shore up O'Halleran and Schweikert.

Hmm, that White CVAP is quite high, but I don't know of any litigation that would render that district expressly illegal. However, turnout among border Hispanics is extremely low, so if Yuma can be put into that district, it'd probably a good thing. Is Yuma being used for anything very important?
Leaving that aside, there are also two reservation precincts that are apart from the rest of reservation in the 3rd. Splitting reservations ought to be avoided.

[Torie]

I still have this phobia against a CD that goes from a chop in Pima County to a chop in the Yuma area across 100 miles of empty desert, when a performing Hispanic CD can nest entirely in Pima County, or a slice of Pima plus Santa Cruz County.

[S019]

AZ IRC met on the 27th and narrowed down who they're deciding on to three firms


https://www.azmirror.com/2021/04/27/redistricting-commission-will-give-mapping-consultants-time-to-respond-to-comments-criticism/

The three firms are HaystaqDNA, Taylor English Decision, LLC, and Timmons Group

Per AZMirror, all three firms have faced accusations of partisan bias, Timmons Group and Taylor English Decisions are accused of GOP bias, while HaystaqDNA is accused of Dem bias. In 2012, chair Colleen Mathis chose a firm accused of Dem bias and the result was a map that did largely favor Democrats, our independent this time seems to be truly independent, but of course no one actually is, which firm is picked will tell us a lot about which map we get.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

AZ IRC met on the 27th and narrowed down who they're deciding on to three firms


https://www.azmirror.com/2021/04/27/redistricting-commission-will-give-mapping-consultants-time-to-respond-to-comments-criticism/

The three firms are HaystaqDNA, Taylor English Decision, LLC, and Timmons Group

Per AZMirror, all three firms have faced accusations of partisan bias, Timmons Group and Taylor English Decisions are accused of GOP bias, while HaystaqDNA is accused of Dem bias. In 2012, chair Colleen Mathis chose a firm accused of Dem bias and the result was a map that did largely favor Democrats, our independent this time seems to be truly independent, but of course no one actually is, which firm is picked will tell us a lot about which map we get.

‘Democratic bias’ here meaning ‘doesn’t attempt a GOP gerrymander’

[S019]

AZ IRC met on the 27th and narrowed down who they're deciding on to three firms


https://www.azmirror.com/2021/04/27/redistricting-commission-will-give-mapping-consultants-time-to-respond-to-comments-criticism/

The three firms are HaystaqDNA, Taylor English Decision, LLC, and Timmons Group

Per AZMirror, all three firms have faced accusations of partisan bias, Timmons Group and Taylor English Decisions are accused of GOP bias, while HaystaqDNA is accused of Dem bias. In 2012, chair Colleen Mathis chose a firm accused of Dem bias and the result was a map that did largely favor Democrats, our independent this time seems to be truly independent, but of course no one actually is, which firm is picked will tell us a lot about which map we get.

‘Democratic bias’ here meaning ‘doesn’t attempt a GOP gerrymander’

I just report the news, but yes a Democratic leaning map would focus on competitiveness and also preserving the current AZ-01 (tossup seat), while a Republican leaning map would make AZ-01 stretch east-west across the northern half of the state (turning it into a Likely R seat). Also a Republican leaning map might prioritize competitiveness less in Maricopa, but there's only so much you can do in that part of that state, AZ-01 is the main fight here.

[S019]

AZ has chosen a consultant with Republican ties: https://kjzz.org/content/1680510/arizona-redistricting-panel-picks-mapping-consultant

This is from another article: Opposition to the Timmons Group largely revolves around its partnership with National Demographics Corporation, which served as the mapping consultant for Arizona’s first redistricting commission in 2001, and the company’s president, Doug Johnson. Democratic organizations and individuals objected to the company’s Republican ties and its history drawing maps that they allege disenfranchised Latino voters.


https://www.azmirror.com/2021/04/27/redistricting-commission-will-give-mapping-consultants-time-to-respond-to-comments-criticism/

So, yeah O'Halleran is probably going to be drawn out.

[lfromnj]

AZ IRC met on the 27th and narrowed down who they're deciding on to three firms


https://www.azmirror.com/2021/04/27/redistricting-commission-will-give-mapping-consultants-time-to-respond-to-comments-criticism/

The three firms are HaystaqDNA, Taylor English Decision, LLC, and Timmons Group

Per AZMirror, all three firms have faced accusations of partisan bias, Timmons Group and Taylor English Decisions are accused of GOP bias, while HaystaqDNA is accused of Dem bias. In 2012, chair Colleen Mathis chose a firm accused of Dem bias and the result was a map that did largely favor Democrats, our independent this time seems to be truly independent, but of course no one actually is, which firm is picked will tell us a lot about which map we get.

‘Democratic bias’ here meaning ‘doesn’t attempt a GOP gerrymander’

The Arizona maps were definitely an attempt at gerrymandering the state based on data available at the time. It worked congressionally and was mostly worth it, although I think it may have been a dummymander at the legislative level. The correlation between how underpopulated/overpopulated the legislative seats was directly tied to the partisanship of the seats with Democratic seats being underpopulated and GOP seats being overpopulated.  Other independent/bipartisan commissions had issues(See Washington/NJ) but only Arizona was this bad to the point of abusing population variation. One can't abuse it congressionally but still shows a very strong intent.

[dpmapper]

I'm quite happy with this map:



Minimal county splits apart from reservations, two districts entirely outside Maricopa.  (The San Carlos and Fort Apache Reservations are not split themselves, but one is in CD2 and one is in CD1; this was done so that the Gila County split wouldn't go right through the middle of Payson, but it's not a big deal to change that up.) 




Within Maricopa itself, very few cities are split.  Phoenix is only cut three ways, and Glendale, Scottsdale are cut in two.  Mesa, Gilbert, Tempe are not cut, and Chandler is whole except for three precincts.  CD3 comes in to take Tolleson and Avondale and that's it (49.4% Hispanic by CVAP). 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/59ea632e-754a-4ceb-a8dc-c480ad256519
experimented to see what a Dem gerrymander of the legislature would look like, This is what I got. Only 10 McSally '18 districts and 14 Trump '16 districts. Needless to say, this map has no chance of becoming law.

2018 senate numbers

[Skill and Chance]

The "dictatorship of a single tiebreaker" commission format will inevitably mean de facto gerrymandering for one side or the other. 

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair 9-district map of Arizona.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

90/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
80/100 on the Compactness Index
81/100 on County Splitting
93/100 on the Minority Representation index
29/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 7R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2018 Arizona Attorney General Election: 5D to 4R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2018 Arizona Gubernatorial Election: 6R to 3D

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R


Opinions?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I tried my hand at a second fair 9-district map of Arizona.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

90/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
80/100 on the Compactness Index
81/100 on County Splitting
93/100 on the Minority Representation index
29/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 7R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2018 Arizona Attorney General Election: 5D to 4R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2018 Arizona Gubernatorial Election: 6R to 3D

2018 Texas Lieutenant Governor Election: 21R to 17D

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R


Opinions?

Your map is very clean and compact. I like it!

[Meatball Ron]

I tried my hand at a second fair 9-district map of Arizona.

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

90/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
80/100 on the Compactness Index
81/100 on County Splitting
93/100 on the Minority Representation index
29/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 7R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2018 Arizona Attorney General Election: 5D to 4R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2018 Arizona Gubernatorial Election: 6R to 3D

2018 Texas Lieutenant Governor Election: 21R to 17D

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R


Opinions?

This is a fantastic map. The only thing I don't like is that the Navajo population gets lumped into a district with a bunch of deplorables, which probably elects Gosar. But I don't have a better suggestion; the current AZ-01 is not practical.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here is a 5-3 R AZ map. Though this could easily turn into a dummymander in a blue wave year or the gop sees further erosion of support in the Phoenix burbs.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bec34db9-9c85-44cf-b5ec-1c1046430ba3

[Ethelberth]

The only relevant question in Arizona is to draw one district with highest possible Native population. Doesn't VRA protect AZ1?

[Stuart98]

AZ-01 is not VRA protected; you can't get its native population above ~25%, well below what's required to guarantee the native population can elect the candidate of their choice. I still think it should be democratic leaning to maximize the chance of that despite it not being legally required, but that's a normative statement rather than a factual one.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a fair AZ map. 3 and 7 are majority Hispanic.

To me, it seems like AZ-1 which is currently in pretty much the bluest possible config is going to become a Trump district while AZ-6 is likely to be pulled into Pheonix and get bluer and possibly flip to Biden.