Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem for Trump is that opening up retail stores isnt gonna help him, because all the stores are open now and he is down by double digits. Trump needs, schools, stadiums opened up to avoid a calamity or he will get blanched.

Opening up stadiums without fans is not gonna do him any good.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News state polls, June 20-23


Florida: 1010 RV (change from April)

Approve 44 (-7)
Disapprove 53 (+6)

Strongly approve 32 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+6)

Biden 49 (+3), Trump 40 (-3)


Georgia: 1013 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 42

Biden 47, Trump 45

Perdue 45, Ossoff 42


North Carolina: 1012 RV

Approve 48
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 47, Trump 45

Cunningham 39, Tillis 37


Texas: 1001 RV

Approve 50
Disapprove 48

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 40

Biden 45, Trump 44

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, June 8-14, 1296 adults including 1094 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 40 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

Strongly approve 26 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+6)


RV:

Approve 41
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 48

Biden 51 (+8), Trump 38 (-3)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another day Trump is behind by 13 pts.

[GP270watch]

 Still don't believe any of these polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Still don't believe any of these polls.

Why not?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When Biden wins you dont have to watch the inauguration

[pbrower2a]

Consequences of poor approval numbers:

FL

Biden 49
Trump 40

GA

Biden 47
Trump 45

NC

Biden 47
Trump 45

TX

Biden 45
Trump 44

FoX polls are generally reliable.

[pbrower2a]

Still don't believe any of these polls.

Then what will you believe?

[pbrower2a]

Fox News state polls, June 20-23


Florida: 1010 RV (change from April)

Approve 44 (-7)
Disapprove 53 (+6)

Strongly approve 32 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+6)

Biden 49 (+3), Trump 40 (-3)


Georgia: 1013 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 42

Biden 47, Trump 45

Perdue 45, Ossoff 42


North Carolina: 1012 RV

Approve 48
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 47, Trump 45

Cunningham 39, Tillis 37


Texas: 1001 RV

Approve 50
Disapprove 48

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 40

Biden 45, Trump 44

...here is how it translates into the prospective vote:

Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 41%

Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 41%

Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%

North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 40%

Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 40%

Wisconsin: Biden 49%, Trump 38%

...just let that sink in. Trump cannot yet crack 41% in any of these states, but Biden has hit at least 47% in all of them. Horrid disapproval numbers in each of them ensure that the President cannot crack 47 in any of them. Unless something changes catastrophically for Biden or some demonic miracle delivers for Trump, then Trump loses. The object of approval ratings is to predict an electoral result, and when the approval ratings are this bad this early, and one can't associate them with some emotional roller-coaster (like the latitude of the front in the Korean War) that can swing wildly, then the President cannot win.


If I am to give odds on Trump winning these states, Arizona, Florida (I will get back to you after I seek out the last credible poll), Iowa,  Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Texas:

and now I get to handicap Arizona and Florida based on a very recent poll

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 40 Trump 60
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

The states swing together. But a lamebrained attack on a Governor doing her job right  instead of obeying him and letting her state take the hit for his incompetence and cruelty was a bad idea:

Shocker! It looks like Trump picking a fight with Michigan was - surprisingly - a terrible move by him!

A high-profile clash with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan encapsulates the president’s challenge. Mr. Trump sided with protesters who opposed her stay-at-home orders, but voters in the state oppose the protests against social distancing restrictions by 57 percent to 37 percent.

As of now, 59 percent of voters in Michigan disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, the highest level of disapproval in any battleground state polled. And nearly 40 percent of registered voters there, including 11 percent of Republicans, say he has treated their state worse than others in response to the pandemic.

I may be citing Sun Tzu or Clausewitz (I have not read them) without knowing it, but it is best to choose battles wisely. The fascists thought that waging war against a country led by a cripple would be far easier than it turned out to be. Leadership is far more a matter of intellect than of legwork.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[/quote]

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist, June 22-24, 1640 adults including 1515 RV (change from early June)

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+3)

Strongly approve 26 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 49 (+2)

This is the highest disapproval Trump has ever had in this poll.  His approval rating has dipped into the upper 30's a few times, the last in Feb. 2019.


RV:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 49 (+1)

Biden 52 (+2), Trump 44 (+1)  NOTE: the prior poll did not push leaners, this one did.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to the RCP aggregate, Trump is at his lowest net approval since impeachment, and at his highest disapproval since the 2018-'19 Government shutdown.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Climate Nexus, June 6-11, 9087 RV (change from April)

Approve 42 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+3)

[GP270watch]

Still don't believe any of these polls.

Then what will you believe?

Not what, when.

 Wednesday, November 4, 2020

[pbrower2a]

Texas in middle blue but Arkansas middle-red? Freakish character of some recent polls. Trump got 50% disapproval but with approval close to 50% in Arkansas, but he got 50% approval with 48% disapproval in Texas. Weird. Biden is one point ahead in the match-up in Texas. Go figure.

[President Johnson]

Not an approval poll, but this is interesting:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1277104574399229952

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is never gonna get it back to 278, and make PA or WI a make or break state, as long as the focus is on him, with police brutality and not on Biden, Ukraine and Reade. Which was all good, for Trump when we had 3.5 percent unemployment

Sorry OPs Rs

[Rep Jessica]

The one good thing Biden has done is not side against the police and enforcing the law. If he had done so he would have had a serious problem with looking weak on law enforcement. 

[pbrower2a]

The one good thing Biden has done is not side against the police and enforcing the law. If he had done so he would have had a serious problem with looking weak on law enforcement. 

The most recent poll in Minnesota suggested that Minnesota voters are not really anti-police; they are against unjustifiable brutality by police. They accept that police departments need to do better scrutiny of police recruits and better training of police. Reforming police work so that it becomes more community-based might make it look more like social work with a badge... but with te badge comes the ability to make an arrest. Community-based policing has been shown to be more effective than traditional police work in communities that have had cause to distrust the police. "Storefront police" are more effective at discovering the local dynamics of life. The police officers get to know which black man who owns a Cadillac is a physician and which one is a pimp or pusher.

Community policing is more effective at developing rapport between the police and communities -- and detecting the bad guys. Whatever helps  make police work more effective without making it more brutal (which means militarized) is a win-win situation for everyone but the criminals.

F--- the criminals! 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not an approval poll, but this is interesting:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1277104574399229952

I wonder if that number will increase after today.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we obsessed with polls, as long as Biden is leading by 3 to 5 points the 278 to 260 blue wall is reaffirmed. There is not any Justin Amash to take 3 percent of the vote and 3.5 percent unemployment to help Trump seek out a narrow victory again in the Rust belt

[pbrower2a]

Why are we obsessed with polls, as long as Biden is leading by 3 to 5 points the 278 to 260 blue wall is reaffirmed. There is not any Justin Amash to take 3 percent of the vote and 3.5 percent unemployment to help Trump seek out a narrow victory again in the Rust belt

Perhaps because America is so polarized between Left and Right (think of Spain in the 1930's) and because so many Americans despise the current President (as if such were not so with Dubya abd Obama as well.

The integrity of the current President is as lacking as his ruthlessness is abundant. Some of the people around him are going to need to find another country if Trump loses. If losing means a potential stay in prison, then you just might seek to win at all costs.

With disapproval numbers as they are and Biden having huge leads by historical standards in match-up polling, it is hard to see Trump winning honestly. Dishonestly? Ay, there's the rub.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we obsessed with polls, as long as Biden is leading by 3 to 5 points the 278 to 260 blue wall is reaffirmed. There is not any Justin Amash to take 3 percent of the vote and 3.5 percent unemployment to help Trump seek out a narrow victory again in the Rust belt

Perhaps because America is so polarized between Left and Right (think of Spain in the 1930's) and because so many Americans despise the current President (as if such were not so with Dubya abd Obama as well.

The integrity of the current President is as lacking as his ruthlessness is abundant. Some of the people around him are going to need to find another country if Trump loses. If losing means a potential stay in prison, then you just might seek to win at all costs.

With disapproval numbers as they are and Biden having huge leads by historical standards in match-up polling, it is hard to see Trump winning honestly. Dishonestly? Ay, there's the rub.

Now we have a WI poll showing normal results Trump up by 47 to 46 up by 1. Granted its R favored but Biden up by 8 points when the economy recovering was overblown

That's why Trump isnt extending unemployment benefits,  they arent permanent benefits like SSI

[Person Man]

Why are we obsessed with polls, as long as Biden is leading by 3 to 5 points the 278 to 260 blue wall is reaffirmed. There is not any Justin Amash to take 3 percent of the vote and 3.5 percent unemployment to help Trump seek out a narrow victory again in the Rust belt

Perhaps because America is so polarized between Left and Right (think of Spain in the 1930's) and because so many Americans despise the current President (as if such were not so with Dubya abd Obama as well.

The integrity of the current President is as lacking as his ruthlessness is abundant. Some of the people around him are going to need to find another country if Trump loses. If losing means a potential stay in prison, then you just might seek to win at all costs.

With disapproval numbers as they are and Biden having huge leads by historical standards in match-up polling, it is hard to see Trump winning honestly. Dishonestly? Ay, there's the rub.

Now we have a WI poll showing normal results Trump up by 47 to 46 up by 1. Granted its R favored but Biden up by 8 points when the economy recovering was overblown

That's why Trump isnt extending unemployment benefits,  they arent permanent benefits like SSI

We are talking about a poll from Karl Rove's firm that has no real interest in being right. The average age of the respondents were in the 70s. I guess that could be right if they expect the average life expectancy of voters in Wisconsin to be 110. Maybe that will be the case in 50 years  (if we ever get back on a good time line and it is indeed possible to live past 120) but not now. Maybe around Halloween they will release plausible polls that are favorable towards Republicans. Those polls still will only represent the maximum possible performance of the Republican and not the most likely outcome.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research, June 16-22, 4708 adults including 3577 RV (change from April)

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 59 (+6)

Biden 54 (+7), Trump 44 (-1)

This is a recurring panel with the same respondents, so the changes are people actually changing their minds rather than sampling differences.