Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Wake me up when the Gallup poll comes out.

Wake up

Wake up, sheeple!

[Beet]

Wake me up when the Gallup poll comes out.

Wake up

Wake up, sheeple!

So Trump has dropped down to the lowest he's been since 2019, ok. If he stays there, that's bad for him. But if that represents a local minimum, then it's still consistent with the higher lows and higher highs we've seen since the start of his career in 2015.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wake me up when the Gallup poll comes out.

Wake up

Wake up, sheeple!

So Trump has dropped down to the lowest he's been since 2019, ok. If he stays there, that's bad for him. But if that represents a local minimum, then it's still consistent with the higher lows and higher highs we've seen since the start of his career in 2015.

Approval is only meaningful since he took office in 2017.

[Beet]

Wake me up when the Gallup poll comes out.

Wake up

Wake up, sheeple!

So Trump has dropped down to the lowest he's been since 2019, ok. If he stays there, that's bad for him. But if that represents a local minimum, then it's still consistent with the higher lows and higher highs we've seen since the start of his career in 2015.

Approval is only meaningful since he took office in 2017.

No, before then he had an RCP favorability rating and a horse race average. The latter reached local minima in July 2015 (his announcement), April 2016, June 2016, August 2016, and October 2016. Three out of five of his local maxima and four out of five of his local minima during this period were higher than the last, showing a general uptrend. His favorability rating also showed a steep uptrend before his win, compared to a shallow used trend since then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has dropped so badly, due to fact nothing new has come out of the COVID 19 task force. They havent given us any updates on what we suppose to do, but stay shelter in place

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, June 10-11, 935 RV (change from late April)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

47, +3 The Hill

Told you all Lol

[Bidenworth2020]

47, +3 The Hill

Told you all Lol

An odd thing to brag out the president being underwater by 6 points. Not to mention that this one poll, with other polls showing opposing results.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He is bragging about polls and all Biden has to do is flip 3 states WI, PA and MI and most polls have Trump behind by 11

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ya know, putting GOP_Represent on ignore has been proven to increase subjective well being.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arkansas: Hendrix College, June 9-10, 869 LV (change from Nov.)

Approve 46 (-4)
Diaspprove 50 (+5)

Trump 47, Biden 45

Sen. Tom Cotton has an approval rating of 44/47, while Gov. Asa Hutchinson is at 62/19.

[Dr. Arch]

Arkansas: Hendrix College, June 9-10, 869 LV (change from Nov.)

Approve 46 (-4)
Diaspprove 50 (+5)

Trump 47, Biden 45

Sen. Tom Cotton has an approval rating of 44/47, while Gov. Asa Hutchinson is at 62/19.

Uhhhhh!?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The AR poll looks bleak for Trump, since African Americans are in desperate need for 3 mnths of stimulus checks. There are poor Latinos and Asians that have lost their side jobs, selling merchandise on the street that needs those stimulus checks as well.

Contradicts the Trump argument of Trump being the Prez of African Americans,  release more checks and rescind the tax cuts or Biden will

Harris was the one that said that a 1× check isnt gonna do it, and she was right.

Too bad Trump toupe, Trump is toast

[Brittain33]

Arkansas is woke af

[Bidenworth2020]

Arkansas: Hendrix College, June 9-10, 869 LV (change from Nov.)

Approve 46 (-4)
Diaspprove 50 (+5)

Trump 47, Biden 45

Sen. Tom Cotton has an approval rating of 44/47, while Gov. Asa Hutchinson is at 62/19.

Sir, this is a Wendy's

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arkansas: Hendrix College, June 9-10, 869 LV (change from Nov.)

Approve 46 (-4)
Diaspprove 50 (+5)

Trump 47, Biden 45

Sen. Tom Cotton has an approval rating of 44/47, while Gov. Asa Hutchinson is at 62/19.

Sir, this is a Wendy's

I just report 'em.   But yeah, it looks like a junky poll.

[pbrower2a]

Can one statewide poll compel me to change my assumptions on one of my utilities? Here is a map that I posted on page 81:

  How states have voted from 2000 on:

all 5 for the Republican
4 R, 1 D
3 R, 2D  
3 D, 2 R
4 D, 1 R
all five for the Democrat

YES! If a poll showed that Connecticut were starting to lean toward Trump by giving him a 48-48 tie in approval, then  one might need to look to the last time in which Connecticut went to the Republican in a nationwide, non-blowout election. That, in fact, would be 1976

 

at which time several states now solidly D were going Republican. It might be hard to imagine California, Washington, Illinois, and New Jersey going Republican... but maybe the Republicans this time were peeling off significant constituencies that by demographics went Republican in the "Nixon-Ford" years but not in the last five Presidential elections.

In recent years I have assumed that blowout losses for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the Mountain and Deep South have suggested that such states are safe for any Republican in 2020. You can dispute the poll by Hendrix College if you wish as a potential outlier... but even if it is wrong by only 5% it suggests that President Trump is losing support by people that most of us have reasonably assumed has been locked up indefinitely. Nothing in this poll suggests that any state that has not been close for a Republican nominee for President since the 1990's is veering toward him. On the other hand, states that were reliably D into the 1990's may now be showing why they were so then... again. It would be interesting to see what constituency has gone D in such a state as Arkansas.

I will figure at this point that, although how states have voted since 2000 have gone D at any one time don't change in my map of electoral history (for example I see no relevance to the fact that Colorado split its electoral choices for President between Clinton and Dole, and that Clinton never won Virginia, then other states voting for Bill Clinton twice in the 1990's (Arkansas, Kentucky,  Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia) or once (Arizona, Georgia, and Montana) but never for a Democratic nominee since then is now relevant.

Since 2000:
4 D, 1 R
3 D, 2 R
3 R, 2D  
4 R, 1 D
Since 1992:
One time for a Democratic nominee in 1992 or 1996
for Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996
all 7 for the Republican*

...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Can one statewide poll compel me to change my assumptions on one of my utilities? Here is a map that I posted on page 81:

  How states have voted from 2000 on:

all 5 for the Republican
4 R, 1 D
3 R, 2D  
3 D, 2 R
4 D, 1 R
all five for the Democrat

YES! If a poll showed that Connecticut were starting to lean toward Trump by giving him a 48-48 tie in approval, then  one might need to look to the last time in which Connecticut went to the Republican in a nationwide, non-blowout election. That, in fact, would be 1976

 

at which time several states now solidly D were going Republican. It might be hard to imagine California, Washington, Illinois, and New Jersey going Republican... but maybe the Republicans this time were peeling off significant constituencies that by demographics went Republican in the "Nixon-Ford" years but not in the last five Presidential elections.

In recent years I have assumed that blowout losses for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the Mountain and Deep South have suggested that such states are safe for any Republican in 2020. You can dispute the poll by Hendrix College if you wish as a potential outlier... but even if it is wrong by only 5% it suggests that President Trump is losing support by people that most of us have reasonably assumed has been locked up indefinitely. Nothing in this poll suggests that any state that has not been close for a Republican nominee for President since the 1990's is veering toward him. On the other hand, states that were reliably D into the 1990's may now be showing why they were so then... again. It would be interesting to see what constituency has gone D in such a state as Arkansas.

I will figure at this point that, although how states have voted since 2000 have gone D at any one time don't change in my map of electoral history (for example I see no relevance to the fact that Colorado split its electoral choices for President between Clinton and Dole, and that Clinton never won Virginia, then other states voting for Bill Clinton twice in the 1990's (Arkansas, Kentucky,  Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia) or once (Arizona, Georgia, and Montana) but never for a Democratic nominee since then is now relevant.

Since 2000:
4 D, 1 R
3 D, 2 R
3 R, 2D  
4 R, 1 D
Since 1992:
One time for a Democratic nominee in 1992 or 1996
for Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996
all 7 for the Republican*

...

It's interesting that the block of states that voted for Bill Clinton twice but voted for no other Democrats are probably all less likely to flip than the states which voted for him only once and voted for no other Democrats.

[pbrower2a]

Can one statewide poll compel me to change my assumptions on one of my utilities? Here is a map that I posted on page 81:

  How states have voted from 2000 on:

all 5 for the Republican
4 R, 1 D
3 R, 2D 
3 D, 2 R
4 D, 1 R
all five for the Democrat

In recent years I have assumed that blowout losses for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the Mountain and Deep South have suggested that such states are safe for any Republican in 2020. You can dispute the poll by Hendrix College if you wish as a potential outlier... but even if it is wrong by only 5% it suggests that President Trump is losing support by people that most of us have reasonably assumed has been locked up indefinitely. Nothing in this poll suggests that any state that has not been close for a Republican nominee for President since the 1990's is veering toward him. On the other hand, states that were reliably D into the 1990's may now be showing why they were so then... again. It would be interesting to see what constituency has gone D in such a state as Arkansas.

I will figure at this point that, although how states have voted since 2000 have gone D at any one time don't change in my map of electoral history (for example I see no relevance to the fact that Colorado split its electoral choices for President between Clinton and Dole, and that Clinton never won Virginia, then other states voting for Bill Clinton twice in the 1990's (Arkansas, Kentucky,  Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia) or once (Arizona, Georgia, and Montana) but never for a Democratic nominee since then is now relevant.

Since 2000:
4 D, 1 R
3 D, 2 R
3 R, 2D 
4 R, 1 D
Since 1992:
One time for a Democratic nominee in 1992 or 1996
for Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996
all 7 for the Republican*

...

It's interesting that the block of states that voted for Bill Clinton twice but voted for no other Democrats are probably all less likely to flip than the states which voted for him only once and voted for no other Democrats.

Yes. Indeed I think Texas more likely to go D in 2020 than any state in in deep green. Still, I have a model (if one figures Texas a potential flip from R to D in 2020) for a Biden landslide in which he gets 450 or so electoral votes. Should Biden have a margin of 13% over Trump (and I am not saying that that will happen), then one needs to figure where the votes would come that make such a margin possible. Arizona, Georgia, and even Montana are all more likely to vote for Biden than are any states in deep green.

It is possible that President Trump will stop the bleeding and solidify support in states in deep blue and deep green. It is also possible that he won't. Electoral collapses can happen; one may be happening now.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

Abacus Data, June 11-13, 1500 adults including 1224 RV and 1004 LV

This is a Canadian pollster.  They did very well in the 2019 Canadian elections.


Adults:

Approve 38
Disapprove 54


RV:

Approve 41
Disapprove 56

Biden 49, Trump 35


LV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 53

Biden 51, Trump 41

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1272514699578531840

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1272514699578531840

But those numbers for Trump seem to have improved.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1272514699578531840

But those numbers for Trump seem to have improved.

Because he's an incumbent. Trump will only win if Biden manages to pass off 50% of voters.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1272514699578531840

But those numbers for Trump seem to have improved.

Because he's an incumbent. Trump will only win if Biden manages to piss off 50% of voters.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1272514699578531840

But those numbers for Trump seem to have improved.

They've improved relative to June 2016, when a bunch of Republicans who didn't vote for him in the primary were still saying they didn't like him solely on the basis that they thought he was certain to lose in November. When he ended up winning, a lot of those people no longer had any reason to say they didn't like him.

Of course, this also means that if he loses this November, he might be one of the only presidents to have a lower favorable rating as an ex-president than he had while in office, as those same people can go back to being mad at him for losing.