Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Øptimus Coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), May 26-June 2, 917 adults including 795 LV

Adults:

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 63 (+3)

Strongly approve 19 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

Virus response: Approve 42 (-1), Disapprove 58 (+1)

Biden 43 (-2), Trump 35 (-2)


LV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Virus response: Approve 46 (nc), Disapprove 54 (nc)

Biden 51 (+1), Trump 44 (-1)

This is what should be happening.  In a Jim Mattis vs. Donald Trump world, people must come to their senses and realize that there's something seriously wrong with Donald Trump's ego, his mental state, and his behavior - enough for the swing voters to say loud and clear "YOU'RE FIRED!"

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.prri.org/research/trump-favorability-white-catholic-and-non-college-americans-national-unrest-protests/
Public Religion Research Institute, May 26-31, 1003 adults

This is favorability, not approval, but has some interesting findings.  Trump's favorability is 41/55, compared to 43/54 last month.

Since the protests intensified later in the week — most notably after the night of May 28 when a police precinct was burned in Minneapolis where George Floyd was killed — we divide the analysis into two roughly equal time periods: before and on May 28 and after May 28 to see if the increasing protests produced significant effects in attitudes toward President Trump.

While there is no significant difference by date across the full survey, favorable views of Trump among Republicans declined significantly between the first (88%) and second half (79%) of the field period. The same is true for independents. While 40% of independents held favorable views of Trump during the first half of the survey, this percentage shrinks to 30% during the second half.

White Catholics and nonwhite Protestants show the largest changes in attitudes toward the president. Currently, 37% of white Catholics hold favorable views of Trump, a significant drop from 49% across 2019, and a substantial downward trend from a high of 60% in March and 48% in April. By contrast, 40% of nonwhite Protestants hold favorable views of Trump, which is mostly steady since March 2020 but a significant increase from 30% across 2019. 

Among all white Christians, a majority (52%) hold favorable views of Trump, which is unchanged since April, but there are differences by date of the May survey. Between the first and second halves of the survey field period, Trump’s favorability levels declined from 57% to 46% among white Christians.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Natl protests are politically motivated, by Stephen Jackson whom is friends with Lebron James.  The same people and minorities that are looting said that Bernie and Biden were two peas in pods and they didnt care about voting on ST.

Now, they say they care and looting, I am not saying that they shouldn't protest, but take it as a grain of salt

[Progressive Pessimist]

Øptimus Coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), May 26-June 2, 917 adults including 795 LV

Adults:

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 63 (+3)

Strongly approve 19 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

Virus response: Approve 42 (-1), Disapprove 58 (+1)

Biden 43 (-2), Trump 35 (-2)


LV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Virus response: Approve 46 (nc), Disapprove 54 (nc)

Biden 51 (+1), Trump 44 (-1)

This is what should be happening.  In a Jim Mattis vs. Donald Trump world, people must come to their senses and realize that there's something seriously wrong with Donald Trump's ego, his mental state, and his behavior - enough for the swing voters to say loud and clear "YOU'RE FIRED!"

I still wish that everyone realized this the second he started running for President, but I guess I have to take what I can get.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

IBD, Biden only +3 lol

Trump’s ‘cratering’ numbers didn’t last long!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

IBD, Biden only +3 lol

Trump’s ‘cratering’ numbers didn’t last long!

This poll still suggests he is cratering, since they had they race tied last time.

[We Live in Black and White]

IBD, Biden only +3 lol

Trump’s ‘cratering’ numbers didn’t last long!

I think I hear the sound of reality whistling in through one of your ears and out the other.

[emailking]

IBD/TIPP, May 31-June 3, 1233 adults including 964 RV (change from late April)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 51 (+7)

Virus response: Approve 38 (-3), Disapprove 46 (+7)


RV:

Approve 42 (-6)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Biden 45 (+2), Trump 42 (-1)


This pollster has been pretty good for Trump up to now.

He lost 13 points in a month. dang.

[Gass3268]

Trump losing ground with White Catholics and Evangelicals in new PRRI poll:

https://twitter.com/eschor/status/1268735348668010497?s=20

[libertpaulian]

From Firehouse Subs...

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1268706149077061632

[Dr. Arch]

From Firehouse Subs...

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1268706149077061632

Oh boy. That's mega yikes territory for him.

[pbrower2a]

That Joe Biden is a devout Catholic hurts Trump in match-up polls even before this, but at least Trump was in a range in which he could win re-election if all went right -- until late May. Note well, though: people of faith are beginning to recognize what a godless man Donald Trump is. This is certainly enough to swing the heavily-Catholic Second District of Maine against him. It can hurt among large white Catholic populations (Cajuns in Louisiana and white Cuban-Americans in Florida). Of course, Catholics are everywhere in America. Louisiana is far from as close to flipping D as Florida or Arizona...

The Catholic Church has slammed Trump for taking over a church for a political photo-op after clearing out peaceful protesters. Wouldn't you?

Trump support seems to be whittling down to a fanatical core.

[wbrocks67]

Trump's approval on the handling of Floyd situation & protests is cratering BIGLY.

[woodley park]

From Firehouse Subs...

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1268706149077061632

Oh boy. That's mega yikes territory for him.

Is Firehouse a GOP pollster?

[libertpaulian]

From Firehouse Subs...

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1268706149077061632

Oh boy. That's mega yikes territory for him.

Is Firehouse a GOP pollster?

Yes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa: PPP, June 3-4, 963 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Trump 48, Biden 47

Greenfield 45, Ernst 43

[woodley park]

Iowa: PPP, June 3-4, 963 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Trump 48, Biden 47

Greenfield 45, Ernst 43

I think this forum is way, way too bullish both on Ernst's chances in the Senate, and Trump's chances in the state. Since 2000, Iowa has voted D three times and Republican twice, yet some how it became Titanium R after 2016.

[Badger]

For my fellow Democrats fidgeting over the fact Trump is still hovering at just over 40% despite everything that has happened, consider the fact that during the Democratic landslides of 1932 and 1964, Herbert Hoover and Barry Goldwater (respectively) managed to win just under 40% of the popular vote while suffering crushing defeat in the electoral college.   1936 was an even bigger landslide for Franklin D. Roosevelt than 1932, and the Republican nominee still won 36.5% of the popular vote.  There will always be a hard core of supporters for any presidential nominee, and Donald Trump is no different.    

Big difference though. Approval is by no means a floor for electoral support. Trump did very well among voters who disapprove both he and Clinton. I don't think he will score nearly as well among such voters this time around, first because it's much harder to say after the last four years that he is in fact the lesser of two evils, plus he's running against Joe Biden instead of someone as divisive is Hillary Clinton. However, he is still going to score several points in the election above what his approval rating is. And don't forget how he was able to Cobble together an electoral college majority with just under 46% of the popular vote.

I don't think I can feel safe about this election until they call Wisconsin and Arizona- - unless we've hit a major blowout and Biden by that point has already won States like North Carolina or Florida - - and even then if it's a close election I won't be satisfied till the Electoral College votes and we don't suffer any faithless electors like last time.

I would like to see them try to have a coup like that.

If by "a coup" you mean the faithless electors tipping the balance for Trump, I do not wish to see that at all. We all know the Supreme Court will uphold it so this point we reached the threat, and it would lead to four years of an absolute malstrom.

[Person Man]

For my fellow Democrats fidgeting over the fact Trump is still hovering at just over 40% despite everything that has happened, consider the fact that during the Democratic landslides of 1932 and 1964, Herbert Hoover and Barry Goldwater (respectively) managed to win just under 40% of the popular vote while suffering crushing defeat in the electoral college.   1936 was an even bigger landslide for Franklin D. Roosevelt than 1932, and the Republican nominee still won 36.5% of the popular vote.  There will always be a hard core of supporters for any presidential nominee, and Donald Trump is no different.    

Big difference though. Approval is by no means a floor for electoral support. Trump did very well among voters who disapprove both he and Clinton. I don't think he will score nearly as well among such voters this time around, first because it's much harder to say after the last four years that he is in fact the lesser of two evils, plus he's running against Joe Biden instead of someone as divisive is Hillary Clinton. However, he is still going to score several points in the election above what his approval rating is. And don't forget how he was able to Cobble together an electoral college majority with just under 46% of the popular vote.

I don't think I can feel safe about this election until they call Wisconsin and Arizona- - unless we've hit a major blowout and Biden by that point has already won States like North Carolina or Florida - - and even then if it's a close election I won't be satisfied till the Electoral College votes and we don't suffer any faithless electors like last time.

I would like to see them try to have a coup like that.

If by "a coup" you mean the faithless electors tipping the balance for Trump, I do not wish to see that at all. We all know the Supreme Court will uphold it so this point we reached the threat, and it would lead to four years of an absolute malstrom.

That's an understatement.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa: PPP, June 3-4, 963 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Trump 48, Biden 47

Greenfield 45, Ernst 43

I think this forum is way, way too bullish both on Ernst's chances in the Senate, and Trump's chances in the state. Since 2000, Iowa has voted D three times and Republican twice, yet some how it became Titanium R after 2016.

States can swing 10% from one election to the next. Think of Indiana 2004 to 2008 and 2008 to 2012. Statistical tie as was the last poll.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: PPP, June 3-4, 682 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 50

Biden 48, Trump 48

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist, June 2-3, 1062 adults including 958 RV (change from March)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+5)

Strongly approve 28 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+6)

(This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since Feb. 2019.)


RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+5)

Strongly approve 29 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+7)

Biden 50 (nc), Trump 43 (-1) (change from Feb.)

[Person Man]

NPR/Marist, June 2-3, 1062 adults including 958 RV (change from March)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+5)

Strongly approve 28 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+6)

(This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since Feb. 2019.)


RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+5)

Strongly approve 29 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+7)

Biden 50 (nc), Trump 43 (-1) (change from Feb.)

He is back to more or less where he was if you average between the pandemic honeymoon and the time his first tax passage failed.

My guess is the the exit polling in 2020 will have him at 46 approval and 54 disapproval. He will lose the 2PV 47-53.

He if he wins, I can see him getting into the low 50s by February and then steadily dropping until he is around freezing for the rest of his president by the following February.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Hill/HarrisX, June 1-4, 2827 RV (change from mid-May)

Approve 44 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+6)

This is usually one of Trump's best pollsters.  From the writeup:

That marks the first time Trump's approval has dipped below 50 percent since March and his lowest approval rating in the poll in a year, though it still remains in the mid-40 percent range.

The last time Trump's approval fell to 44 percent was May 2019, while his lowest recorded approval rating in the Hill-HarrisX poll was 43 percent two months earlier.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is currently at a net -12.3 in the 538 tracker (41.6/53.9), his largest deficit since last November.