2020 New York Redistricting

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So I drew a map thinking of if I were drawing as a "nonpartisan" special master but am still a Democratic partisan (which it sounds is exactly what the guy drawing it is) and the results were...actually still pretty good for the Democrats:



The 20th is probably the biggest issue, but arguing that all of the western border with Vermont is a community of interest isn't really that insane based on geography and roads.

The Long Island seats aren't really that great for Democrats admittedly, but Suozzi could definitely hold the second at least (and no reason for him to not run again), the third was about Biden 50 - Trump 47 so it would definitely flip in a R+3 generic ballot but also would flip back the next D House victory.

I would argue the biggest issue is the lack of a metro Rochester seat even though metro Rochester is basically perfect size for a district. Very interesting results though.

The 24th basically is one although I got a bit sloppy there due to how I was drawing it, for a more clear-cut Rochester metro seat here's a map:

[ProgressiveModerate]

So I drew a map thinking of if I were drawing as a "nonpartisan" special master but am still a Democratic partisan (which it sounds is exactly what the guy drawing it is) and the results were...actually still pretty good for the Democrats:



The 20th is probably the biggest issue, but arguing that all of the western border with Vermont is a community of interest isn't really that insane based on geography and roads.

The Long Island seats aren't really that great for Democrats admittedly, but Suozzi could definitely hold the second at least (and no reason for him to not run again), the third was about Biden 50 - Trump 47 so it would definitely flip in a R+3 generic ballot but also would flip back the next D House victory.

I would argue the biggest issue is the lack of a metro Rochester seat even though metro Rochester is basically perfect size for a district. Very interesting results though.

The 24th basically is one although I got a bit sloppy there due to how I was drawing it, for a more clear-cut Rochester metro seat here's a map:

Ye that looks good. If you want to be a bit more Dem friendly, rotate 23 and 25 so that 23 is a bit more competative. Also in Brooklyn have NY-10 take in some more heavily Dem Asian areas in South Brooklyn and shed some Jewish areas to a black seat. Then that's kinda the most Dem friendly map.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I plugged the Plantiff's remedial map into my model. While the net bias is R + 11 it becomes R + 0 once one accounts for NY's geography which overall isn't great for Dems. From the Dem gerry it's really only an average loss of 2 D seats and an R gain of 2 seats. However, competitiveness goes way up so in 2022, Dems loss will likely be bigger whereas in a great year they could have the ability to go 22-4 or even 23-3. The main consequence of this map for Dems is the median seat nationally would shift from Biden + 4ish to Biden + 2ish (though this assumes a weakened KS-03 for Dems and a NH-01 that is pretty close and everything else stays in place).

A big question is if Biden's strong performance upstate an anomaly or the future. If upstate sees a dramatic R shift in the coming years, especially in the central valley, that would be very bad news for Dems but in the reverse they could make NY-18 and NY-24, MAYBE even NY-19 relatively solid.

Also, the Northeast overall looks funny cause inland is hyper liberal even in rural areas and then you just have this line of urban/suburban R districts along the coast.

This map is unlikely to be the final map but is interesting to see what a fair map could look like.

This map would also add another Clinton-Trump seat meaning we could get a total of 5 under the new maps nationally.

What's the clinton trump, the orthodox seat?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I plugged the Plantiff's remedial map into my model. While the net bias is R + 11 it becomes R + 0 once one accounts for NY's geography which overall isn't great for Dems. From the Dem gerry it's really only an average loss of 2 D seats and an R gain of 2 seats. However, competitiveness goes way up so in 2022, Dems loss will likely be bigger whereas in a great year they could have the ability to go 22-4 or even 23-3. The main consequence of this map for Dems is the median seat nationally would shift from Biden + 4ish to Biden + 2ish (though this assumes a weakened KS-03 for Dems and a NH-01 that is pretty close and everything else stays in place).

A big question is if Biden's strong performance upstate an anomaly or the future. If upstate sees a dramatic R shift in the coming years, especially in the central valley, that would be very bad news for Dems but in the reverse they could make NY-18 and NY-24, MAYBE even NY-19 relatively solid.

Also, the Northeast overall looks funny cause inland is hyper liberal even in rural areas and then you just have this line of urban/suburban R districts along the coast.

This map is unlikely to be the final map but is interesting to see what a fair map could look like.

This map would also add another Clinton-Trump seat meaning we could get a total of 5 under the new maps nationally.

What's the clinton trump, the orthodox seat?

That is correct

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I plugged the Plantiff's remedial map into my model. While the net bias is R + 11 it becomes R + 0 once one accounts for NY's geography which overall isn't great for Dems. From the Dem gerry it's really only an average loss of 2 D seats and an R gain of 2 seats. However, competitiveness goes way up so in 2022, Dems loss will likely be bigger whereas in a great year they could have the ability to go 22-4 or even 23-3. The main consequence of this map for Dems is the median seat nationally would shift from Biden + 4ish to Biden + 2ish (though this assumes a weakened KS-03 for Dems and a NH-01 that is pretty close and everything else stays in place).

A big question is if Biden's strong performance upstate an anomaly or the future. If upstate sees a dramatic R shift in the coming years, especially in the central valley, that would be very bad news for Dems but in the reverse they could make NY-18 and NY-24, MAYBE even NY-19 relatively solid.

Also, the Northeast overall looks funny cause inland is hyper liberal even in rural areas and then you just have this line of urban/suburban R districts along the coast.

This map is unlikely to be the final map but is interesting to see what a fair map could look like.

This map would also add another Clinton-Trump seat meaning we could get a total of 5 under the new maps nationally.

What's the clinton trump, the orthodox seat?

That is correct

Honestly, the right kind of conservadem orthodox politician could win that even in 2022

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://thearp.org/litigation/harkenrider-v-hochul/

Interesting how few congressional and state senate proposals were actually submitted

[smoltchanov]

I plugged the Plantiff's remedial map into my model. While the net bias is R + 11 it becomes R + 0 once one accounts for NY's geography which overall isn't great for Dems. From the Dem gerry it's really only an average loss of 2 D seats and an R gain of 2 seats. However, competitiveness goes way up so in 2022, Dems loss will likely be bigger whereas in a great year they could have the ability to go 22-4 or even 23-3. The main consequence of this map for Dems is the median seat nationally would shift from Biden + 4ish to Biden + 2ish (though this assumes a weakened KS-03 for Dems and a NH-01 that is pretty close and everything else stays in place).

A big question is if Biden's strong performance upstate an anomaly or the future. If upstate sees a dramatic R shift in the coming years, especially in the central valley, that would be very bad news for Dems but in the reverse they could make NY-18 and NY-24, MAYBE even NY-19 relatively solid.

Also, the Northeast overall looks funny cause inland is hyper liberal even in rural areas and then you just have this line of urban/suburban R districts along the coast.

This map is unlikely to be the final map but is interesting to see what a fair map could look like.

This map would also add another Clinton-Trump seat meaning we could get a total of 5 under the new maps nationally.

What's the clinton trump, the orthodox seat?

That is correct

Honestly, the right kind of conservadem orthodox politician could win that even in 2022

Or - may be not. Similar New York City council district went for Republican (Inna Vernikov) rather easily in 2021

[ProgressiveModerate]

I plugged the Plantiff's remedial map into my model. While the net bias is R + 11 it becomes R + 0 once one accounts for NY's geography which overall isn't great for Dems. From the Dem gerry it's really only an average loss of 2 D seats and an R gain of 2 seats. However, competitiveness goes way up so in 2022, Dems loss will likely be bigger whereas in a great year they could have the ability to go 22-4 or even 23-3. The main consequence of this map for Dems is the median seat nationally would shift from Biden + 4ish to Biden + 2ish (though this assumes a weakened KS-03 for Dems and a NH-01 that is pretty close and everything else stays in place).

A big question is if Biden's strong performance upstate an anomaly or the future. If upstate sees a dramatic R shift in the coming years, especially in the central valley, that would be very bad news for Dems but in the reverse they could make NY-18 and NY-24, MAYBE even NY-19 relatively solid.

Also, the Northeast overall looks funny cause inland is hyper liberal even in rural areas and then you just have this line of urban/suburban R districts along the coast.

This map is unlikely to be the final map but is interesting to see what a fair map could look like.

This map would also add another Clinton-Trump seat meaning we could get a total of 5 under the new maps nationally.

What's the clinton trump, the orthodox seat?

That is correct

Honestly, the right kind of conservadem orthodox politician could win that even in 2022

Or - may be not. Similar New York City council district went for Republican (Inna Vernikov) rather easily in 2021

It's one of those things that can work both ways but there's a good chance whoever wins the district would have it on lock assuming they remain relatively uncontroversial.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1521210799867449348

We can finally see the Dem proposal clearly, there was an alternative website but we all love our DRA .
Also
https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1521206790049968128

Lmfao boomer judges.



lol.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

They made upstate redder but it's still uglier somehow!

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/02/nyregion/redistricting-democrats-appeal.html

NY Dems lawsuit.

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/02/nyregion/redistricting-democrats-appeal.html

NY Dems lawsuit.

This one is so bad, that it might be subject to sanctions (paying the fees and costs for the defendant to respond) for filing a frivolous lawsuit. I will leave it at that.

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/02/nyregion/redistricting-democrats-appeal.html

NY Dems lawsuit.

This one is so bad, that it might be subject to sanctions for filing a frivolous lawsuit. I will leave it at that.

I mean does a Federal court not need to give approval to move the primary?

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/02/nyregion/redistricting-democrats-appeal.html

NY Dems lawsuit.

This one is so bad, that it might be subject to sanctions for filing a frivolous lawsuit. I will leave it at that.

I mean does a Federal court not need to give approval to move the primary?

No. Primary dates are a matter of state law. That is why we have primary dates all over the place.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/02/nyregion/redistricting-democrats-appeal.html

NY Dems lawsuit.

This one is so bad, that it might be subject to sanctions for filing a frivolous lawsuit. I will leave it at that.

I mean does a Federal court not need to give approval to move the primary?

No. Primary dates are a matter of state law. That is why we have primary dates all over the place.

US House is a FEDERAL election. The federal court can(they won't but my point still stands) absolutely say no the US House primary must be held on the 28th, the filing deadline has already passed yada yada yada

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/02/nyregion/redistricting-democrats-appeal.html

NY Dems lawsuit.

This one is so bad, that it might be subject to sanctions for filing a frivolous lawsuit. I will leave it at that.

I mean does a Federal court not need to give approval to move the primary?

No. Primary dates are a matter of state law. That is why we have primary dates all over the place.

US House is a FEDERAL election. The federal court can(they won't but my point still stands) absolutely say no the US House primary must be held on the 28th, the filing deadline has already passed yada yada yada

Nope, because by virtue of delaying the primary, the filing deadline, and petition gathering will be delayed pari-passu. In fact, in state court, parties have intervened to clarify that issue.

[cinyc]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/02/nyregion/redistricting-democrats-appeal.html

NY Dems lawsuit.

This one is so bad, that it might be subject to sanctions for filing a frivolous lawsuit. I will leave it at that.

I mean does a Federal court not need to give approval to move the primary?

No. Primary dates are a matter of state law. That is why we have primary dates all over the place.

US House is a FEDERAL election. The federal court can(they won't but my point still stands) absolutely say no the US House primary must be held on the 28th, the filing deadline has already passed yada yada yada

Nope, because by virtue of delaying the primary, the filing deadline, and petition gathering will be delayed pari-passu. In fact, in state court, parties have intervened to clarify that issue.

Is that the purpose of the Libertarian Party intervenors? They initially filed some blank pieces of paper, I think.

[Sol]

If you prefer making one of the Black districts plurality, you can do something like this



9 is an area with the population of two districts that's Black majority. (Ignore the Bronx, I'm just playing around.)

You can make the 4th less ugly but also less Black by dropping Westbruy. You can also push the total Black population above 40% by pushing the district further south and west in Jamaica, in a way which is ugly but not terrible.

I like this because imo it reduces the likelihood of the Black candidate of choice losing the primary and lets you draw three normal districts just in LI.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/bobhardt/status/1521478459549270030

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/bobhardt/status/1521478459549270030

Well he would have lost to Molinaro if the district was less than Biden +10 so.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/HenryRosoff/status/1521509138026713089?cxt=HHwWgsC-6f2fvp0qA...

rofl even Jeffries isn't asking the Special Master to draw the legislature maps.

https://newyork.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=current_2012&propB=unitymap_20211123&selected=-73.596,40.632#%26map=6.95/41.449/-72.918

Here's the unity maps, relatively least changey with the Nadler arm etc. Overall NY01 is a bit more R, NY02 is a bit more D, NY03 and NY04 swap places with NY04 becoming competitive and Malliotakis seat becomes 2 points more R.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/HenryRosoff/status/1521509138026713089?cxt=HHwWgsC-6f2fvp0qA...

rofl even Jeffries isn't asking the Special Master to draw the legislature maps.

https://newyork.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=current_2012&propB=unitymap_20211123&selected=-73.596,40.632#%26map=6.95/41.449/-72.918

Here's the unity maps, relatively least changey with the Nadler arm etc. Overall NY01 is a bit more R, NY02 is a bit more D, NY03 and NY04 swap places with NY04 becoming competitive and Malliotakis seat becomes 2 points more R.

Wow. An incumbent advocating for an extreme least change map. If this were really about representation, why not an Orthodox/Asian seat in south Brooklyn?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/HenryRosoff/status/1521509138026713089?cxt=HHwWgsC-6f2fvp0qA...

rofl even Jeffries isn't asking the Special Master to draw the legislature maps.

https://newyork.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=current_2012&propB=unitymap_20211123&selected=-73.596,40.632#%26map=6.95/41.449/-72.918

Here's the unity maps, relatively least changey with the Nadler arm etc. Overall NY01 is a bit more R, NY02 is a bit more D, NY03 and NY04 swap places with NY04 becoming competitive and Malliotakis seat becomes 2 points more R.

Wow. An incumbent advocating for an extreme least change map. If this were really about representation, why not an Orthodox/Asian seat in south Brooklyn?

The point is that even Jeffries isn't trying to go with the legislature's maps. Also remember Jeffries isn't just an incumbent but also in house leadership.

[lfromnj]

If you prefer making one of the Black districts plurality, you can do something like this



9 is an area with the population of two districts that's Black majority. (Ignore the Bronx, I'm just playing around.)

You can make the 4th less ugly but also less Black by dropping Westbruy. You can also push the total Black population above 40% by pushing the district further south and west in Jamaica, in a way which is ugly but not terrible.

I like this because imo it reduces the likelihood of the Black candidate of choice losing the primary and lets you draw three normal districts just in LI.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/855cc0e6-53e0-4137-a9d4-61eb5b150a50

Really like it, I still feel like the Park Slope-SI district is cursed so I decided to keep PS with Maloney's district where it fits with the rest of the Brooklyn/Queens progressive areas and just added some mixed areas similar to SI's north shore near Kensington. Not an effort to force 2 GOP districts , but this does make the SI district Biden +5 instead of Biden +10.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/HenryRosoff/status/1521509138026713089?cxt=HHwWgsC-6f2fvp0qA...
rofl even Jeffries isn't asking the Special Master to draw the legislature maps.

https://newyork.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=current_2012&propB=unitymap_20211123&selected=-73.596,40.632#%26map=6.95/41.449/-72.918

Here's the unity maps, relatively least changey with the Nadler arm etc. Overall NY01 is a bit more R, NY02 is a bit more D, NY03 and NY04 swap places with NY04 becoming competitive and Malliotakis seat becomes 2 points more R.

Wow. An incumbent advocating for an extreme least change map. If this were really about representation, why not an Orthodox/Asian seat in south Brooklyn?

Those aren't VRA protected groups.