2020 New York Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sorry you could not make it to Queens. That was an interesting experience.

Literally the worst timing cause of AP week and also my parents concerns. How was it?

[Torie]

I fixed the AOC seat (and the numbering system), and  we shall see if that fix was adopted today. I think I also have determined what the loadstar of your map was, which perhaps explains all those extra chops. That is all I am going to say.  

Oh, one other thing. SCOTUS may invoke ISLD, and exclude courts from drawing maps, including inter alia the NC map, and throw it into the dumpster, never to be seen again. I have said before, and say again, that redistricting brings out the worst in people.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-the-courts-made-gerrymandering-better-or-worse/

As to Queens, I had to endure once again listening to the Intervenors' lawyer for the group that wanted to toss the Assembly maps for this election cycle (they lost) go on and on and on and on, this time for the purpose soliciting clients. I finally interrupted him and asked him if he planned to finish that evening or go into the morning hours. Dan and I finally commenced to walk out, which did finally shut him up. Interesting crowd, to say the least.

Oh, I see the dude filed another lawsuit for his clients in Manhattan to toss the assembly maps. I asked him if that was the plan, and he dodged the question. At least his commute has been considerably shortened.

https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1526174001403514882?s=20&t=VkMj3lGThtZJAZtwLoFgbA

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1526186498474778625

Waiting.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Watch them be released at 11:59pm

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1526186498474778625
Waiting.

Inasmuch as it was posted in the morning, that squib contains no information actually. I am going to walk the dog. Cervas has a tough job drawing the state senate map with all those  arcane requirements that sent me screaming to the exits. So he might be under the gun. So it is time for the pack to go foraging.

At least for Congress, he has at least one splendid template to work from to save him a lot of time.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1526228771841482752?s=20&t=Q86U48...

Not the outcome the GOP wanted. Also not what incumbents wanted.

[ProgressiveModerate]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

[Smash255]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1526186498474778625
Waiting.

Inasmuch as it was posted in the morning, that squib contains no information actually. I am going to walk the dog. Cervas has a tough job drawing the state senate map with all those  arcane requirements that sent me screaming to the exits. So he might be under the gun. So it is time for the pack to go foraging.

At least for Congress, he has at least one splendid template to work from to save him a lot of time.

I would be in the 3rd under this proposal.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also rip to the Orthodox seat.

Overall, stuff like Buffalo and NY-08 and 9 keep me asking why.

The map seems a tad sloppy around teh edges, but a reminder this is still an initial draft.

Also kinda surprises me NY-21 is only Trump + 11.

Seems like a large emphasis was placed on keeping cities/counties whole

[Devils30]

Ironically this is likely a 23-3 map in a 2018 scenario.

Hurts Dems for 2022 but this makes House very winnable for them in a neutral type of D+2 generic ballot year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Actually a lot of nyc is quite simillar to my map wonder if it had any influence.

[Sestak]

SP Maloney has announced that he’s going to switch districts in an attempt to take out Mondaire Jones. Terrible.

[Sol]

Not a bad map at all. I do think it cuts up the Chinese community in southern Brooklyn a bit too much, and Western NY is very weird, but everything else seems p solid.

[lfromnj]

SP Maloney has announced that he’s going to switch districts in an attempt to take out Mondaire Jones. Terrible.

I mean it is his home county.  The partisan difference between the 2 is marginal . Honestly some respect for taking the arguably tougher race.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone else find it weird how Biden did slightly better in this iteration of district 2 than 3?

[Gass3268]

SP Maloney has announced that he’s going to switch districts in an attempt to take out Mondaire Jones. Terrible.

Jones could challenge Bowman and they are doublebunked.

[Nyvin]

Wow, they really bacon-stripped the Orthodox and Asian communities in south Brooklyn.

At least Tompkins is in a competitive seat.

[Sestak]

SP Maloney has announced that he’s going to switch districts in an attempt to take out Mondaire Jones. Terrible.

Jones could challenge Bowman and they are doublebunked.

16th is overwhelmingly Bowman’s current district and its northern boundaries have barely changed.

Similarly, 17th is mostly Jones’ current seat and 18th is majority SPM’s current territory. Maloney is quite clearly the one who is stepping out of line here, evidently because leadership views Jones as a threat and wants him eliminated. Watch for DCCC’s biggest primary spend to be here even though they suppsosedly set stringent rules and blacklisting for “campaigning against incumbents”.

[Tintrlvr]

SP Maloney has announced that he’s going to switch districts in an attempt to take out Mondaire Jones. Terrible.

Jones could challenge Bowman and they are doublebunked.

16th is overwhelmingly Bowman’s current district and its northern boundaries have barely changed.

Similarly, 17th is mostly Jones’ current seat and 18th is majority SPM’s current territory. Maloney is quite clearly the one who is stepping out of line here, evidently because leadership views Jones as a threat and wants him eliminated. Watch for DCCC’s biggest primary spend to be here even though they suppsosedly set stringent rules and blacklisting for “campaigning against incumbents”.

Nobody is entitled to their seat. Running where your home is located, regardless of difficulty, is far more noble than trying to follow "your" district as it moves.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow, they really bacon-stripped the Orthodox and Asian communities in south Brooklyn.

At least Tompkins is in a competitive seat.

I have said it before and I will say it again: in order to not discriminate against the various NYC groups that are legally protected, you need to find Whites from somewhere to add into the seats to prevent minority packing, and the Orthodox are just the closest and most readily available. The progressives are also a viable option, but as shown by this map, you need to partially carve them both up for all the minority seats. There is a reason why the GOP's dream map had one of the LI seats reach into the region, rather than use a existing dem seat.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Well we freaked out for nothing lol

[kwabbit]

Slightly odd map, and one that is pretty favorable for Democrats. Standard fare for a Princeton Election Consortium disciple.

[Tintrlvr]

Wow, they really bacon-stripped the Orthodox and Asian communities in south Brooklyn.

At least Tompkins is in a competitive seat.

I have said it before and I will say it again: in order to not discriminate against the various NYC groups that are legally protected, you need to find Whites from somewhere to add into the seats to prevent minority packing, and the Orthodox are just the closest and most readily available. The progressives are also a viable option, but as shown by this map, you need to partially carve them both up for all the minority seats. There is a reason why the GOP's dream map had one of the LI seats reach into the region, rather than use a existing dem seat.

NY-9 is an interesting choice regardless. Previously the gentrifying areas in Fort Greene/Clinton Hill/Bed-Stuy/Prospect Heights/Crown Heights/Lefferts Gardens were split between NY-8 and NY-9 so that neither was at particular risk for a primary challenge from the progressive (white, at least as far as its voters go) left as demographics change. But this NY-9 could well be plurality white among actual primary voters by the end of the decade, despite pulling out of some of the progressive liberal areas, although its white voters will of course include a lot of Orthodox Jews from Midwood and Italians from Bath Beach.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What will Molinaro/Schmitt do? They are double bunked

[MT Treasurer]

For the umpteenth time, there’s no way they’re holding the Senate if they’re "definitely" losing the House.

What is your reaction to the ny ruling? Does that change your opinion?

Not really.