UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Pulaski]

Delighted that one of the great stains of British politics is finally being scrubbed out, but can't help but feel pessimistic today. I'm not normally a doomer, but Sunak, Javid or Truss are much better chances of turning things around for the Tories before the next election, and Starmer still has no goodwill with the general public.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1544962473815580673

Ah yes the same Economist who backed him in 2019 and - arguably even more unforgivably - told people to vote Tory in 2015 (along with the FT and, incredibly, the Independent)

We are still paying a big price for that latter folly, and will do so for a while yet.

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1545001330183479300

[CumbrianLefty]

Delighted that one of the great stains of British politics is finally being scrubbed out, but can't help but feel pessimistic today. I'm not normally a doomer, but Sunak, Javid or Truss are much better chances of turning things around for the Tories before the next election, and Starmer still has no goodwill with the general public.

I dunno, could always be proved wrong (I have been before) but I just don't see how the Tories can pull off the "we are a totally NEW GOVERNMENT, we are THE CHANGE" schtick as effortlessly or cynically as they undoubtedly did in both 2019 and 2016. And one notes, approvingly, that Labour people have regularly been inserting "12 years in power" into their recent pronouncements.

Sunak in particular is both past it and overrated, and his judgement over the economic crisis has not been good. Javid is a monotone Ayn Rand fan, and Truss has a certain "elan" but is also lightweight. If we are playing that game, Mordaunt and Wallace may be the ones to worry non-Tories most.

(oh and to say Starmer has "no public goodwill" is a ridiculous exaggeration, his ratings are middling in historic terms - they compare decently to Miliband and Kinnock, never mind Corbyn)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We're actually in constitutionally uncharted territory right now: lengthy leadership elections are a relatively new innovation in British Politics and there's only ever been one full one (2019) for a government party. Previously transitions were quick as internal political processes were quick, which is why there's no tradition of caretaker Prime Ministers.

[TheTide]

This kind of thing shows how unpopular he had become. Would the United States branch of KFC dare to mock Trump and/or the Republicans? Probably not as they would be writing off a lot of their customer base.

https://twitter.com/KFC_UKI/status/1545058129326444547?s=20&t=tMhgB0S8-pA1aK...

[CumbrianLefty]

We're actually in constitutionally uncharted territory right now: lengthy leadership elections are a relatively new innovation in British Politics and there's only ever been one full one (2019) for a government party. Previously transitions were quick as internal political processes were quick, which is why there's no tradition of caretaker Prime Ministers.

Also, previous PMs of modern times haven't departed primarily through personal disgrace.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Starmer to table VONC in the Commons.

Does the UK system allow for there to be a window for an alternate PM appointed if they can command a majority of the Chamber, or does this instantly trigger a GE? It differs by country, and if the latter, then it wouldn't be unimaginable for the Tories to chuck Boris out and put up a new caretaker they expect to command their caucus.

There’s scope for an alternative PM to be appointed in the aftermath of a loss of confidence in the Government - such an occasion arose in both 1895, and January 1924. Conventionally, the new administration came from other parties though, and no party with a working Commons majority has lost a confidence vote since that occasion in 1895.

Two other Votes of No Confidence have passed in the Commons since 1895, in December 1924, and 1979. Both of those led directly to a dissolution of Parliament and a snap election.

There were more confidence votes before 1895, but the system, and the electorate were very different then, and don’t make great comparisons, especially given the party system was a lot more flexible back then.

From the Commons Library: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02873/

I know party discipline is traditionally much stronger in the UK than in the US, and so there is reason to believe Johnson could manage to survive a confidence vote on the floor of the Commons even though he plainly couldn't survive an intra-party vote - and then also factoring in Johnson holding out the threat of asking the Queen for new elections if the Commons votes against him and having the Tory majority voted out - but if it turns out he can't fill all of the ministerial positions even while serving in a caretaker capacity and the government essentially ceases to function, that does seem like a situation that could lead to widespread defections.

[Sir Mohamed]

Perhaps Johnson could have saved himself by issuing a new leadership vote after he won the motion of no confidence? Then he would have an argument "see, the party base still wants me."

Anyways, I'm glad this populist jerk is finally gone. He was never up to the job.

[Alcibiades]

https://www.twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1544962473815580673

Ah yes the same Economist who backed him in 2019 and - arguably even more unforgivably - told people to vote Tory in 2015 (along with the FT and, incredibly, the Independent)

We are still paying a big price for that latter folly, and will do so for a while yet.

The Economist endorsed the Lib Dems in 2019. But yes, you are absolutely right about 2015.

[Blair]

US politics does not have this camp energy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/scottygb/status/1544993157745721344?ref_src=twsrc%5Eg...

[Damocles]

Y'all okay just across the pond?

[Badger]

So for us Yanks who don't follow the UK very closely, can anyone offer their takes on the likely timing and frontrunners to take over as leader of the tories?

[Silent Hunter]

Y'all okay just across the pond?

On the tail end of Covid, but I have had a better week than Boris.

[Damocles]

On the tail end of Covid, but I have had a better week than Boris.

What's the deal? I see all these ministers resigning and refusing to work over some kind of scandal involving drunken parties during COVID restrictions...?

[MaxQue]

On the tail end of Covid, but I have had a better week than Boris.

What's the deal? I see all these ministers resigning and refusing to work over some kind of scandal involving drunken parties during COVID restrictions...?

Oh, no, the current outburst is caused by Boris re-appointing someone at the Whips Office while he knew that person was a serial groper.

[DINGO Joe]

It's surprisingly hard to find a good "Chaos with Ed Miliband" T-shirt. That's all I want on it.  Nothing else that gives it context or such.

[MABA 2020]

So 1922 committee decided not to change the rules tonight why? They're just gonna have to do it next week when he doesn't resign

This aged well

[Torrain]

snip

I know party discipline is traditionally much stronger in the UK than in the US, and so there is reason to believe Johnson could manage to survive a confidence vote on the floor of the Commons even though he plainly couldn't survive an intra-party vote - and then also factoring in Johnson holding out the threat of asking the Queen for new elections if the Commons votes against him and having the Tory majority voted out - but if it turns out he can't fill all of the ministerial positions even while serving in a caretaker capacity and the government essentially ceases to function, that does seem like a situation that could lead to widespread defections.

I've been more bullish on defections than most on this forum - and consistently been proven wrong. In truth, defections seem to be triggered only in exception circumstances, and it's rare for the benefits to outweigh the negatives.

But, if we are going to see any further defections in this Parliament, then I think you've hit the nail on the head - a Commons no-confidence vote would be the black-swan event that would trigger them. And I think there are three reasons why:

• A no-confidence vote is the ultimate example of a three-line whip, so if you want to get Johnson out, you'll have to find a new home before you vote, because there will be no future with your own party. And if the vote passes, then we're into election territory, and no local Labour group is going to adopt a stray, expelled, Tory MP as their candidate.
  
  
• Labour will frame a no-confidence vote as the only chance to prevent Johnson (framed as an illegitimate PM) staying in office for months, and they will tar every MP who votes with the government with the same brush. If a wavering MP votes to keep Johnson in office, they will almost certainly find the door to Labour or Lib Dems has been barred shut, permanently. This is the last chance to get out of the Conservative Party, and have any chance of remaining an MP.
  
  
• The optics of MPs crossing the floor specifically to rid the country of Johnson would be incredibly damaging for the government - and would lead the frontpages for days - even if (as expected) there would not be enough to actually effect a win for the opposition.

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

As far as Boris....

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So who are the favorites to replace BoJo? Mordaunt, Sunak, Wallace, and Truss?

[Torrain]

So who are the favorites to replace BoJo? Mordaunt, Sunak, Wallace, and Truss?

There's a good discussion of the race in this new thread in the International Elections board:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=513911.0

[Meclazine for Israel]

I liked Boris, but out on the Savannah alone, he was easy prey.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

On the tail end of Covid, but I have had a better week than Boris.

What's the deal? I see all these ministers resigning and refusing to work over some kind of scandal involving drunken parties during COVID restrictions...?

It's not my job to educate you.

[Pulaski]

Delighted that one of the great stains of British politics is finally being scrubbed out, but can't help but feel pessimistic today. I'm not normally a doomer, but Sunak, Javid or Truss are much better chances of turning things around for the Tories before the next election, and Starmer still has no goodwill with the general public.

I dunno, could always be proved wrong (I have been before) but I just don't see how the Tories can pull off the "we are a totally NEW GOVERNMENT, we are THE CHANGE" schtick as effortlessly or cynically as they undoubtedly did in both 2019 and 2016. And one notes, approvingly, that Labour people have regularly been inserting "12 years in power" into their recent pronouncements.

Sunak in particular is both past it and overrated, and his judgement over the economic crisis has not been good. Javid is a monotone Ayn Rand fan, and Truss has a certain "elan" but is also lightweight. If we are playing that game, Mordaunt and Wallace may be the ones to worry non-Tories most.

(oh and to say Starmer has "no public goodwill" is a ridiculous exaggeration, his ratings are middling in historic terms - they compare decently to Miliband and Kinnock, never mind Corbyn)

I mean, neither Kinnock, Miliband nor Corbyn had public goodwill, and comparing Starmer to three leaders who all lost elections (particularly the first two, who led Labour to losses when most people expected them to win) is perhaps not that encouraging a comparison.

I hope my posting history shows that I am not concern trolling here; I will always root for the more left-wing option, however disappointed in them I may be personally, over horrid right-wing governments. I genuinely hope Labour win the next election. But 2019 in Australia taught me that voters forgive plenty of conservative governments that they crucify Labour governments for, and I worry Truss in particular (and Braverman, though I doubt Tories will choose her) could turn things around for them.