UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Blair]

Was watching the post-1992 election episode of Spitting Image, and it's sort of hilarious how well it fits to the post-election landscape in some ways:

-The Shadow Cabinet and a delusional Kinnock awkwardly blame the weather, the recession and the fact that there was an election as the reasons for Labour's defeat, then they loudly turn on Kinnock and shout "RESIGN!!!"

-The Conservatives not being able to believe they won and/or wondering what on earth (given the bad economic situation) would make the voters not vote Conservative.

-Paddy ("Seatsdown") Ashdown variously noting the Tories fought a dirty campaign (and that they should have done the same), that their slogan was "My vote" (and that's all they got) and stating "the Liberal Democrat was neither good, nor bad... but absolutely awful".

-A heartbroken Kinnock waking up in the middle of the night to play "Everything's coming up roses" on a piano (which is a surprisingly moving moment, even if I don't sympathize with Kinnock)

I can just about imagine very similar sketches with Corbyn, Johnson and Swinson if the series was on today (though I'd wonder what Corbyn might be playing).

Is that one on youtube? Don't think I've seen it before but would be great comic relief at this time.

We also need a more catchy thread title!

[Blair]

Could be Orbanism. Could be a sop to the ERG that Johnson will ignore. We'll see what legislation actually gets proposed in the Queen's Speech.

My guess is it's somewhere in between, like (barf) introducing US-style partisan appointment of Supreme Court justices but leaving the constitutional system otherwise the way it is.

FWIW I'm not an expert at all but I really can't see this happen. The most likely route is tightening  the use of Judical Review (used by campaign groups & now by MPs to piss on the Governments plans) but I can't see the court structure changing.

Firstly a Parliamentary majority gives you whatever you want; the Supreme Court would struggle to block something like prorogation again if a majority of MPs voted for it- besides the hissy fit about the Supreme Court was really just among the swivel eyed lot, and now that this has happened I feel there's much easier fish to fry.

Besides the legal profession in the UK is cliquey enough that this is the type of move that could lose a Parliamentary vote; the Blair Government got itself into a proper fit over it & I feel Tory MPs are much more comfortable attacking and outlawing Channel 4 than the Judges they need to be a reference for their kids oxbridge application.

Secondly our judges don't really have the same papertrail as US judges- like if you've just spend your time doing family court, or something similar what does that tell you about how they'd rule on a case about the powers of the DWP or something similar; all the current judges are a degree of different views but all ruled against Boris.

[Blair]

The argument about 'unelected officals' is really no different to the fact that US cabinet members aren't elected; but are officials chosen by a President elected within a college, and then ratified by the legislative body.

[Blair]

Is the below really the calibre of discussion that we're having about the EU?

The EU became unpopular precisely because it tried to govern like it was a nation instead of a trade pact. All the rules and regulations it was implementing over the last 10 years and then expecting nations to follow those even when they violate their own rules and laws showed the utter hubris and failure of the EU.

Also, the EU is not some great institution which promoted free-market economics at all, it is far more socialist than the UK and the UK being out means it can implement far more neo-liberal reforms and make it self like the US than it could have under the EU.

Do you really think the EU only started EU wide regulations in the last 10 years?

Again I'm not surprised but this is showing rather a lot of ignorance about the EU. As Tony Judt said about the treaty of rome in 1957...

It is important not to overstate the importance of the Rome Treaty. It represented for the most part a declaration of future good intentions...Most of the text constituted a framework for instituting procedures designed to establish and enforce future regulations. The only truly significant innovation – the setting up under Article 177 of a European Court of Justice to which national courts would submit cases for final adjudication – would prove immensely important in later decades but passed largely unnoticed at the time.

It was painfully obvious from the 1960s that there would be a common set of regulations & a court arbitration system to deal with any disagreements of these rules & regulations.  

If you want to have a single currency & the freedom of movement of goods and services you're going to shock horror have a uniform set of regulations; something that virtually every single trade deal around the world already has- and that's just for the movement of goods.

Also I don't suppose you know that the socialist single market was actually created & championed by Margaret Thatcher; our EU membership didn't stop anti-trade union laws being introduced, nationalised assets being sold or austerity- because that's not the purpose of the EU.

When you have both the devout free marketeers claiming the EU is a socialist plot & rabid lexiteers claiming it's a capitalist club its pretty obvious it's something in the middle; a union of states that upholds a mildly social democratic set of rules around minimum labour, environmental and social standards.

[Blair]

To put my tin foil hat I tend to completely ignore polls A.) This far from an election B.) During such a protracted crisis.

The thing that has been forgotten in the hysteria is we're still behind Italy & Spain; and most crisis's & the political response comes much later (the appeasers of Munich only got booted out of Government 9 months later after the fiasco of Norway)

It's when people see the deaths & can actually point to what has be done abroad in comparison to the UK.

Polls aside; there's clearly a wobble in Government. This happened 2 (or was it 3) weeks ago and was the reason the daily press conferences started along with a more joined up PR strategy.

The problem is we've moved away from the PR (please stay at home!) stage to the 'where the hell are the tests & ventilators' stage- the latter can't be changed by media tactics.

[Blair]

In true british fashion this whole fiasco has emerged because Gordon Brown had a feud with Harriet Harman & didn't want to make her deputy prime minister- and then wanted to make Mandelson deputy prime minister without the title so made him 'First Secretary of State'

I'm not a constitional historian/scholar or expert but we really should have some sort of codified succession; I never understand why the position of Deputy Prime Minister was not made virtually obligtatory & beefed up with the explicit understanding that they can take over the reins.

The latest rumour is that the Cabinet Office has a 'document' which deals with the national security implications of a succession or lack of in some sort of similar event; of course most of these probably date from the Cold War or from post 9/11 plans.

[Blair]

In true british fashion this whole fiasco has emerged because Gordon Brown had a feud with Harriet Harman & didn't want to make her deputy prime minister- and then wanted to make Mandelson deputy prime minister without the title so made him 'First Secretary of State'

I'm not a constitional historian/scholar or expert but we really should have some sort of codified succession; I never understand why the position of Deputy Prime Minister was not made virtually obligtatory & beefed up with the explicit understanding that they can take over the reins.

The latest rumour is that the Cabinet Office has a 'document' which deals with the national security implications of a succession or lack of in some sort of similar event; of course most of these probably date from the Cold War or from post 9/11 plans.

Good points. The positions of Deputy Prime Minister and/or¹ First Secretary of State are legally nothing more than honorary titles, denoting honorary precedence over other cabinet members. The UK clearly needs a proper legislation to have someone who's clearly second in the chain of command and who can fully take over in the time of emergency. Right now all you have is the PM saying "this guy will deputize for me", which is both vague and lacking a firm legal basis.

I mean, let's imagine the Prime Minister died and before the cabinet agrees on an interim appointment to take over until a leadership election something big happens that would require the Prime Minister to make an instant decision. Who's going to make that decision? The cabinet at large or will they go to the Queen and ask her to do it in a violation of the constitutional convention?

¹ It becomes even "funnier" when you have two diffrent people serving as Deputy PM and First Secretary at the same time.

I think Al might have touched on it before but when we last had it when Macmillian's health was in an awful state- the Chief Whip (Ted Heath) asked cabinet members and backbenchers who should be leader although this was before the tories had a formal provision for electing a leader.

It's all rather chaotic; to be quite morbid if something had happened to Brown between 2007-2008 we would have had Harriet Harman as the acting leader of the Labour Party, which by rights would make her the de-facto choice as Prime Minister as the leader of the majority party; but of course the cabinet could have easily gone for Straw, Miliband or Alan Johnson.

On the whole it has generally worked previously when the DPM or first secretary of state is someone rather umabitouous, at the end of their career and without extreme views (catergories that Hague, Lidington, Green and even by the end Mandelson fell into)

That's why the Raab choice is a bit bizarre; but looking at the cabinet I can't see who else there is!

[Blair]

PMQs today; as someone on twitter wrote it was like watching a trained QC going up against a trainee city solicitor (oh wait it was) Starmer was pushing the govt over testing/PPE supplies

Starmer much more punchier than even I expected; as people (like me!) who watched his time as Brexit Secretary he's in his element doing this- as someone noted the new layout with very few MPs actually in the chamber (and much less heckling) means that it is very much like a court room.

[Blair]

West Wing-itis is indeed a serious affliction of the political class in this country.

I gave up after one season because I watched it after I'd reached political maturity and just spend the whole time going 'god this is naive'... the President doesn't spend 40 minutes talking to his bag carrier.. I didn't even get onto the political hijinks involded (I know there some farcial plot which sees them replacing a SCOTUS vacancy with an arch conservative because he's smart....)

[Blair]

I came on here to post that once again Keir gave the political equilvant of a happyslap in PMQs.

Shocking that for the third time in a row they've tried to accuse Starmer of being wrong about something... QCs don't tend to get things wrong when they've had 7 days to prepare.

[Blair]

The baffling thing is that the defences put out by the Cabinet don't read like comments from a Government- 'he was putting his kid first' 'how dare you blame him for looking after his child' are all political election responses rather than a Government dealing with a national crisis response.

The Ministers are pretty much admitting that he broke the rules; because if they thought he hadn't they would have said that.

Of course if this was a Government Minister or a civil servant they'd be sacked; but Cumming has this weird Rasputin like repuation in some parts of the Tory Party, and thus parts of it are convinced they'll fall apart without him. I've always felt his repuatation has been overhyped but this saga is really showing us a lot about how this Government operates (including the craven cabinet made up of B-list Brexiters; who've been sidelined throughout this whole saga)

I expect more Tory MPs will come out against him; cummings is hated funnily enough by some of the ERG & the longer this carries on the longer the smell will stick to the party...

[Blair]

I wish I posted it this morning when I predicted it but Peston is now reporting they're considering a cabinet office enquiry.

They're useless chocolate teapot investigations; for those not familar with them they're where the Government takes 3 months to investigate & then clears said offical/minister without releasing a report. (or in previously hilarous displays clears the Minister after they were sacked)

It would be hard to see how that would work this time because there is no element of doubt involded... what can they investigate?

It's starting to look quite difficult for the Government, especially with a bank holiday where people are more especially likely to email their MPs... I've kept off twitter but a fair few commentators on the right are not happy

[Blair]

There isn't PMQs this week... which I actually think might harm the Government as it means the scandal will just continue to brew. With scandals so bad as this PMQs often allows the Government a form of blood letting or the opposition are perceived to mess it up (with the response often being 'oh that could have gone a lot worse)

A long linkering bank holiday where no-one has anything else to talk about however..

[Blair]

Something that hasn't been mentioned is that this has been genuinely good weekend for the British Press; and a welcome contrast to the ineptitude of the American political press.

Although there has been one senior BBC reporter who has managed to debase themselves even further...

[Blair]

More Tory MPs are coming out against Cummings; one MP apparantly had 250 emails about it.

Never underestimate this & the fact that MPs know generally from records who the people are; a lot of MPs are shaped by their mailbag.

The front page of the Daily Mail for tomorrow is deeply bad for the government. When you've lost *them* as a Tory, you're toast.

I read a Blair era rule was that if the Guardian & Mail agreed on an issue you'd lost.

On that subject Boris has lost the clergy, with several bishops coming out against it... I can't remember the last time we had this happen over a political row.

[Blair]

Although there has been one senior BBC reporter who has managed to debase themselves even further...

Can't possibly imagine who you are referring to here, no sirree

It's quite funny because before the election I always generally cut her a lot of slack & thought she just faced the same abuse that Nick Robinson & co faced (there's problems with how the BBC do news but Humphreys aside none of the presenters were much of an issue for me)

However how she didn't get sacked for fasely reporting that Labour activists attacked the health secretary was remarkable. It wasn't even the shoddy sourcing that angered me but the fact that she changed an entire newscycle through tweeting.

And once again she did the same thing this time; and in an even more sh**tty move did so by trying to cut the legs off a colleagues story.... I never really understand journo beef but I imagine she's not exactly popular.

EDIT: I posted vaguely in the hope I wouldn't rant. I have failed.

[Blair]

To give an update Cummings is apparantly doing a statement & taking questions- I assume like most of his past comments it will be him in tracksuits calling the press idiots for getting Brexit 'wrong' & saying normal people don't care.

It's a sign of either how broken the political radar of No.10 is, or the degree they're willing to go to defend cummings that 3 days of solid news coverage, a Prime Ministerial Statement & three ministerial interviews aren't enough to close this... I can't see how more questions is going to help.

I've seen some people hint that there might be more in terms of family specifics around health issues; but the problem is that during a pandemic where people are dying alone it won't really change much for people.

It must be embarrasing to be a cabinet member in this Government knowing you'd have been sacked on Saturday but if you're an advisor (paid through the public purse) you keep your job....

[Blair]

Maybe this will look silly in 24 hours, but I don't think he has "closed this down".

It looks to have been enough to get the more monotonously partisan Tories to fall in line, but it's not going to convince anybody else. The question then becomes whether they're a majority of the parliamentary party and what people are and aren't willing to do when he keeps refusing to resign.

Yeah I love seeing cabinet members who defended him on saturday (before they knew about the second trip!) now say 'oh great it's all been cleared up'. If I was really bored I'd try & get a sheet of those who have kept quiet, especially in the new intake & those in junior jobs. The responses to constituents emails will shine a light on this too. 

The tipping point this weekend was the reaction of Tory MPs; my focus will now be on the public & there's a danger this becomes to the Government what 'Brown sold the gold' was.

But yeah this just seems to have have solidified opinion; there wasn't the game changer attempt of an excuse I expected or the apology/remorse.

The part about the eyetest is rubbish & will fall apart- and has caught the public imagination.

It also seems that the Mail are really going for the Government over this; already Government MPs are doing the whole 'he's answered questions...let's just focus on the great work we're doing etc'' and I expect we won't see many more Tory MPs calling for him to be sacked now that it's obviouis he won't be.

But this has done the Government a great deal of damage & most importantly has seriously weakened the Governments credibility to enforce public health decisonns.

[Blair]

One of the most enjoyable things in politics is knowing that the opposition are having to esentially lie through their teeth; god knows the Labour Party did a good amount over the last four years but the only ray of sunshine to come from this is the amount of Tory MPs & Ministers who know cummings is awful, who know he did wrong, who know he should be sacked yet they still have to lie to themselves, lie to their consittuents and to the public.

[Blair]

Despite my prediction it hasn't stopped & has actually got worse with a junior Scottish Minister Douglas Ross resigning (who is iirc is quite a big brexiteer- but there's also Scottish Tory Politics going on in this decision)

Added the former chief whip Mark Harper has just called for him to go citing the impact that this is having on the party & it's message- MPs will listen to this.

I wouldn't be surprised if we reach 30 by the end of the day & with the polling I'm actually edging towards thinking he resigns on Wednesday/Thursday as a 'I did nothing wrong but....'.

[Blair]

Despite my prediction it hasn't stopped & has actually got worse with a junior Scottish Minister Douglas Ross resigning (who is iirc is quite a big brexiteer- but there's also Scottish Tory Politics going on in this decision)

Added the former chief whip Mark Harper has just called for him to go citing the impact that this is having on the party & it's message- MPs will listen to this.

I wouldn't be surprised if we reach 30 by the end of the day & with the polling I'm actually edging towards thinking he resigns on Wednesday/Thursday as a 'I did nothing wrong but....'.

My best ideas are stolen but Stephen Bush pointed out that the rebels/disgruntled backbenchers so far in the Bojo reign have been white male MPs from the 2010/2015 intake who are seeing the chance of serving in Government slipping away & thus are happy to put the boot in- I say this because Stephen Hammond (majority of 500 odd) has just called for him to quit.

If more from the 2019 intake start coming forward I would worry for the whips...

[Blair]

In a week of low bars Hancock has committed to look into the issue of everyone who was fined for travelling with children.

True banana republic sh**t to retrospectively change the law to allow a Government aide to get away without resigning.

[Blair]

I've become the very thing I hate in that I'm waiting for tomorrow's newspaper headlines & any polling figures to get a sense of Cummings. In an ominous sign we've reached the stage where Government Ministers & whips are saying Cummings was in the wrong... but of course they can't say he'd quit unless they quit.

The Prime Minister's liason committee performance didn't help but it never would do; the most hilarous thing was him having no knowledge of the fact that some people in the UK can't access benefits through the 'no-recourse to public funds'- I'm too lazy to get the clip but he was genuinely (in a sincere way) baffled why someone couldn't get access to benefits.

Again the fact that someone who has been an MP since 2005 & is the Prime Minister has no knowledge of something that virtually every caseworker, researcher, local councillor & others in politics know about is worrying- but it's nothing new.

With Brexit, the Election & Covid we very rarely get a chance to remember that Bojo isn't very good at the day-to-day details

[Blair]

It's rather much a catch 22 that the Government is rolling out a 'test and trace' program tomorrow; yet beyond the press conference it's getting virtually no coverage, scrunity or understanding compared to the issues facing PPE, care homes & testing in the previous weeks.

So far the scheme appears to be a joke- the app was ditched & it's instead relying on volunteers to phone people up- these volunteers are trained by TURDEXCO or some strange firm who usually do private security/school dinners/baliff work & reports appear to suggest it's a farce waiting to happen.

Of course the big problem is that people are a lot less likely to follow the advice after the last week- I'm also baffled how it's going to work without the prestige of the police/NHS or even a local authority strapline

[Blair]

Johnson wasn't an MP between 2008 and 2016, he was the Mayor of London...

Also, isn't the app just delayed?

I had the joy of living through his reign so yeah I know- my point was that it's not as if he has the excuse of being a new MP.

I thought the app had been ditched into the long grass; the Department of Health have said it's 'coming in the next few weeks'.