UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[MaxQue]

It's pretty much impossible to respond effectively to the budget, because no prior notice of the content is given, so you can only go off the Chancellor's speech. The actual scrutiny doesn't start until about 24 hours later until everybody has had a chance to consult the Red Book and see to what extent the speech is actually an accurate reflection of the content of the Budget.

You ought to do it the Canadian way (journalists and a staffers have access to it in a closed room, under embargo and no phones from 9AM, when the budget is at 4PM).

[MaxQue]

Oh so it was deliberate. 

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1460675705876926468?s=21

I thought I read that Laura Konservative was leaving BBC?

[MaxQue]

The ultimate in buffoonery was the #FBPEer who decided it was Labour's fault for "handing the Tories victory" in the W Devon byelection - even though they came within a single vote of winning it.

Yeah claiming they should have stood down for the Lib Dems, as they came third last time.

It's also frankly even more stupid to argue it should extend to council election- there are councils where I would not vote for the Liberal democrats out of principle, and equally a whole swath where people would not vote Labour.

Additionally, Council by-elections literally do not matter to any issue any hypothetical progressive alliance would agree given how weird many council coalitions can be.

Through, I'm pretty sure Conservative-Labour coalitions are banned by the Labour Party (see Aberdeen).

[MaxQue]

It’s a shame UK has a 5 year gap between elections. It should be 4 years.

With Labour up 12% in the polls that would likely result in a historic flip and bring Labour from around 200 seats to….what…. 380 seats?

Labour 43% • (176 majority • 418 seats)
Conservative 31%
LibDem 17%


Labour 41% • (164 majority • 412 seats)
Conservative 32%
LibDem 18%

I don't mind if Labour wins the election but please spare us those hideous LibDem numbers.

I know they have some fundamental differences but it makes zero sense that Labour and LibDems don’t merge. This isn’t the 80’s or 90’s or even the 00’s … it should be done. I wonder how many seats would flip if they had a combined vote.

Look, Joe Kennedy is behind you!

[MaxQue]

Okay well how about a more far reaching arrangement where the parties never run in the same seat unless it’s a Lab/Lib seat.

That is likely to benefit Conservatives, actually, given the number of LDs voters who would never vote Labour and the number of Labour voters who would never vote for a Liberal Democrat MP.

[MaxQue]

Okay well how about a more far reaching arrangement where the parties never run in the same seat unless it’s a Lab/Lib seat.

That is likely to benefit Conservatives, actually, given the number of LDs voters who would never vote Labour and the number of Labour voters who would never vote for a Liberal Democrat MP.

I can see a LibDem voter not voting Labour. But why would a Labour voter rather go Tory than LibDem?

Just think of, in US terms, of a Reagan Democrat or someone compelled by Trump-like populism. Pro-union, quite socially conservative.

[MaxQue]

A minor detail: we have our first Minister from the 2019 intake. Andrew Griffith is the unpaid Parliamentary Under Secretary for Policy at the Cabinet Office, to support Steve Barclay and free up room for him.

Generally what determines if a new MP becomes a minister or becomes Lobby Fodder? What's the actual selection process ?

Well, Griffith was a Johnson staffer before being elected and his large house was the Johnson leadership campaign HQ.

[MaxQue]

Also equally, it is the fault of the quite incompetent Speaker Hoyle, who should have required Johnson to withdraw what he said.

[MaxQue]

A confidence vote could be imminent, as in hours rather than days or weeks. My basis for this is somewhat paradoxical - the usual drama mongers on social media are being a bit more low key about it. In more 'normal' times they drum things up.

I strongly doubt Brady will call it during recess, just before the Jubilee.

[MaxQue]

Is there even precedent for a monarch to refuse dissolution of Parliament?

In British Columbia 2018 election, the Liberal Premier lost her majoirty, but still had the most seats. Her Throne Speech was voted down by an alliance of both Opposition and she tried to get her Majesty representative to dissolve the Assembly, but the representative refused and appointed the Opposition Leader as Premier.

So, there is precedent to refuse dissolution.

[MaxQue]

Also, high odds of a Streisand effect.

[MaxQue]

If the 1922 votes to amend the rules tonight (as it seems possible?) to allow a VONC, could we see a vote as early as next Monday? Or is the process more drawn out than that?

The process is shorter than that (same day or overnight), the only reason it went over a weekend last time is because of the Jubilee and because the Parliament was in recess (MPs were out of town).

[MaxQue]

Worth noting that the PM does not have the unrestricted power to dissolve Parliament when he/she wishes: a request must be made to the Sovereign, who can refuse. The rules governing this at present are the so-called Lascelles Principles, submitted by terrifying Mid Century Arch-Flunkey Sir Alan Lascelles (a.k.a. 'Tommy', a.k.a. 'Senex') in an anonymous letter to The Times in 1950. Quite a few of the scenarios being floated around at present happen to violate both active parts of the Lascelles Principles, which would presumably mean a refusal.

What's unique about this situation is the lemmingisation of senior and junior ministers which has never happened before. If the Cabinet can't move him and they resign then the 1922 Committee can only remove him as party leader. He ends up a political cuckoo.

The System is fairly flexible, but it's not really designed well for this sort of politician. As we know the monarch can technically fire him but that's a crisis in itself.

Well, the Monarch may have to take a decision anyways in the coming weeks. She can hope she won't have to, but she cannot help events or context.

[MaxQue]

On the tail end of Covid, but I have had a better week than Boris.

What's the deal? I see all these ministers resigning and refusing to work over some kind of scandal involving drunken parties during COVID restrictions...?

Oh, no, the current outburst is caused by Boris re-appointing someone at the Whips Office while he knew that person was a serial groper.

[MaxQue]

Plaid Cymru MP Jonathan Edwards has had the whip restored after a long period as an independent. It was originally withdrawn after he was cautioned by the police in a substantiated incident of domestic abuse against his wife (divorce proceedings are ongoing):
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-62507593

She’s understandably quite angry about this, and has denounced the party. It’s all quite ugly. I still think we have to find some way to amend the recall petition system, so those with serious character deficits can be held to account - without creating a situation where marginal MPs are triggered into by-elections on the whim of the parties.

From my understanding, after internal disciplinary procedures decided to readmit him to the party Plaid were worried that they’d be sued by not restoring the whip to him - which if true, suggests they need to seriously improve their constitution. Other party’s in Parliament have denied the whip to MPs that hold membership - Corbyn being the most notable recently.

Or get better lawyers.

[MaxQue]

Of course these moments of crisis have been common enough in modern British history, though this is the first since Black Wednesday to be to a large extent self-inflicted. It's right to be pessimistic about the short-term, but there's no reason to be for the future beyond that. We've been here before: younger posters might not be aware quite what an absolute state this country's public realm was in for most of the 1990s for instance.

Honestly for me this is just a cause for further pessimism; if voters don't remember the 90s, there's no reason to think they'll remember these times long-term, and won't learn the lesson that Tory governments bring the country to its knees every time they're in office.

Quite a few do though, and the parallels to now are being made.

Hopefully they will also make the link with a center-right Labour party who will fail to change anything due to being a slave to corrupt media.

[MaxQue]

I'm sure there must be a significant number of non-Tories that don't want Labour to get back into power anytime soon, lest they be the ones left holding the bag that is the ongoing state of the country.

Well the country is only gonna get out of it's current state with a non-tory government, so if Labour are waiting for things to get better before returning to power they're going to be waiting forever. Now obviously the coming winter and probably next year are going to be especially bad, but the next election won't be until 2024 anyway so no worries.

It's not happening either, because Starmar is firmly committed to status quo.