Nordstream 1 being shutdown permanently

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1565737160187289605?s=20&t=s3kuSL6RcnT5Zd...

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1565739141349916672?s=20&t=88GV9byaA2X...

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1565743413831540739?s=20&t=yCkgda...

Honestly if this furthers weaning Europe off Russian gas on a faster timeframe then good, the free world can't afford it. I realize that may be easy for me to say as an American but we've got a lot at stake here and it includes more than gas prices at this point.

[Estrella]

Kudos to Putin for doing what Scholz (and frankly, most of the EU) did not have the balls to do.

[Estrella]

And, if true, this matters not because Europe is getting less gas – the 10% or whatever we were still getting wasn't much, neither for filling our stockpiles, nor in terms of European money for the Russian treasury and all the moral questions that come from that. It's important because, again if it is really true, it removes all remaining credibility from the Chamberlainist option of 'maybe Putin will turn on the tap if we debase ourselves enough'.

Of course, there will still be an undercurrent of pro-Russian and pro-selling-out-Ukraine-for-gas popular sentiment in many countries – we can't discount that. But Putin has lost the governments and big corporations that wanted both Nord Streams because they thought he was a cheap and reliable supplier, unlike those goddamn stealing Ukrainians, or corrupt Arabs, or greedy Americans. As Al said once, it's all... distinctly Scargillian.

[President Johnson]

Not necessarily permanently, but good riddance. What we need the most now is get through this winter, and German gas reserves are at 80% right now, ahead of schedule, thanks to our friends from Norway. As for winter next year, we'll be able to import more gas from other countries and hopefully increase clean energy production.

What the EU urgently needs now is a reform of the electricity market to drive down skyrocketing costs. Especially end the coupling of gas and electricity prices.

[super6646]

Title is misleading (they didn’t mention the shutdown being permanent, but rather indefinite).

Hopefully Germany finally stops with its half assed appeasement towards Russia and takes the hit this coming winter and rid itself of its reliance on russia. My question to Germans (since I’m not too versed on this) is how reliable can Norway be as a supplier of natural gas for the time being? If they can supply German this year, Russia is being incredibly stupid.

[parochial boy]

Title is misleading (they didn’t mention the shutdown being permanent, but rather indefinite).

Hopefully Germany finally stops with its half assed appeasement towards Russia and takes the hit this coming winter and rid itself of its reliance on russia. My question to Germans (since I’m not too versed on this) is how reliable can Norway be as a supplier of natural gas for the time being? If they can supply German this year, Russia is being incredibly stupid.

The big issue they have is that they don't have the terminals available to receipt the imports of Liquified Natural Gas that would come from Norway. Obviously they are building them now, but they don't pop up overnight and the lack of infrastructure limits what they can import from Norway. With some extra big issues over regional distribution. The South has some big issues, and Bavaria in particular has been having some big arguments over a gas storage location in Austria. Although that has been somewhat appeased as apparently it's going - or at least has been - a bit better than expected.

In any case yes, Germany is paying a very deserved price for decades of short-sightedeness and complacency in terms of its energy provision. Putting so much focus on gas imports from an aggressive dictatorship at a time where they knew they had to be reducing fossil fuel reliance just because it was the easiest route - absolutely typical of Merkel era complacency and myopia. Hopefully this will be a wake up call on a whole host of things, but you wouldn't count on it.

[CumbrianLefty]

There's an argument that oil exports are doing more to keep Russia afloat than gas tbh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's an argument that oil exports are doing more to keep Russia afloat than gas tbh.

Not an argument so much as clear fact. It's interesting really: European governments assumed that the Kremlin would never do anything as mad as trying to conquer Ukraine as the economic ties (gas supplies being the main one, but also e.g. financial services) between Western Europe and Russia were so strong that they wouldn't dare, but at the same time the Kremlin assumed that European governments would never do anything serious in response as the economic ties between Western Europe and Russia were so strong. The former remains embarrassing and all of our governments* and foreign policy establishments need to reflect on the implications, but the latter was clearly a much more serious mistake. Winter is going to be rough, but we'll weather it whereas the surprising intensity of Western European support for Ukraine has been an unambiguously disastrous development for the Russian war effort.

<sub>1. While people will tend to focus on Merkel here, we should not forget that e.g. the British government did not even respond particularly seriously, harsh words aside, to the Skripal affair, despite it constituting a chemical attack on a small British city, despite the fact that a British citizen died as a direct result.

2. Which, people getting cross on twitter aside, does include the German government: I'm not sure if anyone, not even those of us who were aware that the Scholz government always had the potential for more flexibility on a range of sensitive issues than any since Reunification, would seriously have expected arms deliveries to Ukraine from Germany on any scale at the start of the war. This has led to some incredibly hysterical scenes on Russian television, incidentally.</sub>

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As for what those implications are: mostly it's a simple matter of remembering that when people in public office say they believe in something, they usually mean it and should be taken seriously. Assuming otherwise - assuming that everything is part of a cynical Great Game of some kind - is often a diplomatic default, but for all that it may be sophisticated it is not very clever.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Title is misleading (they didn’t mention the shutdown being permanent, but rather indefinite).

Hopefully Germany finally stops with its half assed appeasement towards Russia and takes the hit this coming winter and rid itself of its reliance on russia. My question to Germans (since I’m not too versed on this) is how reliable can Norway be as a supplier of natural gas for the time being? If they can supply German this year, Russia is being incredibly stupid.

Thanks, but my rent has already increased by 130 Euros this month even without Nordstream 1 being shut down.

This is coming from someone who would advocate supplying Ukraine with main battle tanks of German production.

Now imagine what a German would say who has opposed supplying Ukraine with arms altogether from the start and who maybe earns half as much as I do.

Imagine how such a person could change his future voting behaviour.

Maybe now you realize that you are trying to invest in a bit of a zero-sum game here.

[Omega21]

Title is misleading (they didn’t mention the shutdown being permanent, but rather indefinite).

Hopefully Germany finally stops with its half assed appeasement towards Russia and takes the hit this coming winter and rid itself of its reliance on russia. My question to Germans (since I’m not too versed on this) is how reliable can Norway be as a supplier of natural gas for the time being? If they can supply German this year, Russia is being incredibly stupid.

Thanks, but my rent has already increased by 130 Euros this month even without Nordstream 1 being shut down.

This is coming from someone who would advocate supplying Ukraine with main battle tanks of German production.

Now imagine what a German would say who has opposed supplying Ukraine with arms altogether from the start and who maybe earns half as much as I do.

Imagine how such a person could change his future voting behaviour.

Maybe now you realize that you are trying to invest in a bit of a zero-sum game here.

Is that just the Kaltmiete or are you including electricity and heating?

Anyway, agreed. 300-400 Euro total added fixed costs per month is more than enough to ruin a substantial part of the population and make them "reconsider" their decisions. Not because they are immoral (at least not most of them), but because they will be "forced" into it.

I myself am an unusal mix. I actually support aiding Ukraine both financially and militarily, but I am more in favor of military aid by proxy when it comes to very heavy equipment. However, I am against any mention of hydrocarbon sanctions or immediate reductions of RU supplies (I favor a realistic 5-10 year full transition period), and maybe even opening NS2.

Rechte und Linke mobilisieren seit Wochen für einen „heißen Herbst“ mit Demonstrationen gegen steigenden Energiepreise. In Prag hatten Kommunisten und Rechtsextreme mit ihren Aufrufen Erfolg: Rund 70.000 Menschen protestierten am Samstag gegen die Ukraine-Politik der Regierung.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article240849187/Massenproteste-In-Tschechien-zeigt-sich-was-Deutschland-bevorstehen-koennte.html

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Title is misleading (they didn’t mention the shutdown being permanent, but rather indefinite).

Hopefully Germany finally stops with its half assed appeasement towards Russia and takes the hit this coming winter and rid itself of its reliance on russia. My question to Germans (since I’m not too versed on this) is how reliable can Norway be as a supplier of natural gas for the time being? If they can supply German this year, Russia is being incredibly stupid.

Thanks, but my rent has already increased by 130 Euros this month even without Nordstream 1 being shut down.

This is coming from someone who would advocate supplying Ukraine with main battle tanks of German production.

Now imagine what a German would say who has opposed supplying Ukraine with arms altogether from the start and who maybe earns half as much as I do.

Imagine how such a person could change his future voting behaviour.

Maybe now you realize that you are trying to invest in a bit of a zero-sum game here.

Is that just the Kaltmiete or are you including electricity and heating?

Anyway, agreed. 300-400 Euro total added fixed costs per month is more than enough to ruin a substantial part of the population and make them "reconsider" their decisions. Not because they are immoral (at least not most of them), but because they will be "forced" into it.

I myself am an unusal mix. I actually support aiding Ukraine both financially and militarily, but I am more in favor of military aid by proxy when it comes to very heavy equipment. However, I am against any mention of hydrocarbon sanctions or immediate reductions of RU supplies (I favor a realistic 5-10 year full transition period), and maybe even opening NS2.

Rechte und Linke mobilisieren seit Wochen für einen „heißen Herbst“ mit Demonstrationen gegen steigenden Energiepreise. In Prag hatten Kommunisten und Rechtsextreme mit ihren Aufrufen Erfolg: Rund 70.000 Menschen protestierten am Samstag gegen die Ukraine-Politik der Regierung.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article240849187/Massenproteste-In-Tschechien-zeigt-sich-was-Deutschland-bevorstehen-koennte.html

Germany needs to do what it needs to do to keep its economy strong. Notwithstanding whatever choices are made to reach that point, whether or not it might come off as putting money in Russia's hands in the short term. An weaker economy means less tax revenue, which means, indirectly, less money to give Ukraine and less ability to defend it in the long-term. This is a marathon, not a race.

While neither you, nor I, nor MAE, have quite as much info on hand to make a measured decision as to how this all ought to be handled (relative to professional politicians), long-term it is fair to say that Germany's sheer reliance on Russian hydrocarbons is a liability in this security environment and the long haul is what is most important.

[Omega21]

Title is misleading (they didn’t mention the shutdown being permanent, but rather indefinite).

Hopefully Germany finally stops with its half assed appeasement towards Russia and takes the hit this coming winter and rid itself of its reliance on russia. My question to Germans (since I’m not too versed on this) is how reliable can Norway be as a supplier of natural gas for the time being? If they can supply German this year, Russia is being incredibly stupid.

Thanks, but my rent has already increased by 130 Euros this month even without Nordstream 1 being shut down.

This is coming from someone who would advocate supplying Ukraine with main battle tanks of German production.

Now imagine what a German would say who has opposed supplying Ukraine with arms altogether from the start and who maybe earns half as much as I do.

Imagine how such a person could change his future voting behaviour.

Maybe now you realize that you are trying to invest in a bit of a zero-sum game here.

Is that just the Kaltmiete or are you including electricity and heating?

Anyway, agreed. 300-400 Euro total added fixed costs per month is more than enough to ruin a substantial part of the population and make them "reconsider" their decisions. Not because they are immoral (at least not most of them), but because they will be "forced" into it.

I myself am an unusal mix. I actually support aiding Ukraine both financially and militarily, but I am more in favor of military aid by proxy when it comes to very heavy equipment. However, I am against any mention of hydrocarbon sanctions or immediate reductions of RU supplies (I favor a realistic 5-10 year full transition period), and maybe even opening NS2.

Rechte und Linke mobilisieren seit Wochen für einen „heißen Herbst“ mit Demonstrationen gegen steigenden Energiepreise. In Prag hatten Kommunisten und Rechtsextreme mit ihren Aufrufen Erfolg: Rund 70.000 Menschen protestierten am Samstag gegen die Ukraine-Politik der Regierung.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article240849187/Massenproteste-In-Tschechien-zeigt-sich-was-Deutschland-bevorstehen-koennte.html

Germany needs to do what it needs to do to keep its economy strong. Notwithstanding whatever choices are made to reach that point, whether or not it might come off as putting money in Russia's hands in the short term. An weaker economy means less tax revenue, which means, indirectly, less money to give Ukraine and less ability to defend it in the long-term. This is a marathon, not a race.

While neither you, nor I, nor MAE, have quite as much info on hand to make a measured decision as to how this all ought to be handled (relative to professional politicians), long-term it is fair to say that Germany's sheer reliance on Russian hydrocarbons is a liability in this security environment and the long haul is what is most important.

Agreed.

Even with a non-rushed and well planned 5-10 year transition away from RU energy, we would still be unable to achieve pre 2022 RU prices, so we would still be sacrificing a competitve advantage Europe had in certain industries, but that is a reasonable and non-avoidable price to pay for energy independence.

However, this rushed "cutoff" is not only hurting Europe, but also did nothing to lower RU energy revenues. Selling 30% less at 200% the price is, after all, still a net positive.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Title is misleading (they didn’t mention the shutdown being permanent, but rather indefinite).

Hopefully Germany finally stops with its half assed appeasement towards Russia and takes the hit this coming winter and rid itself of its reliance on russia. My question to Germans (since I’m not too versed on this) is how reliable can Norway be as a supplier of natural gas for the time being? If they can supply German this year, Russia is being incredibly stupid.

Thanks, but my rent has already increased by 130 Euros this month even without Nordstream 1 being shut down.

This is coming from someone who would advocate supplying Ukraine with main battle tanks of German production.

Now imagine what a German would say who has opposed supplying Ukraine with arms altogether from the start and who maybe earns half as much as I do.

Imagine how such a person could change his future voting behaviour.

Maybe now you realize that you are trying to invest in a bit of a zero-sum game here.

Is that just the Kaltmiete or are you including electricity and heating?

Anyway, agreed. 300-400 Euro total added fixed costs per month is more than enough to ruin a substantial part of the population and make them "reconsider" their decisions. Not because they are immoral (at least not most of them), but because they will be "forced" into it.

I myself am an unusal mix. I actually support aiding Ukraine both financially and militarily, but I am more in favor of military aid by proxy when it comes to very heavy equipment. However, I am against any mention of hydrocarbon sanctions or immediate reductions of RU supplies (I favor a realistic 5-10 year full transition period), and maybe even opening NS2.

Rechte und Linke mobilisieren seit Wochen für einen „heißen Herbst“ mit Demonstrationen gegen steigenden Energiepreise. In Prag hatten Kommunisten und Rechtsextreme mit ihren Aufrufen Erfolg: Rund 70.000 Menschen protestierten am Samstag gegen die Ukraine-Politik der Regierung.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article240849187/Massenproteste-In-Tschechien-zeigt-sich-was-Deutschland-bevorstehen-koennte.html

Germany needs to do what it needs to do to keep its economy strong. Notwithstanding whatever choices are made to reach that point, whether or not it might come off as putting money in Russia's hands in the short term. An weaker economy means less tax revenue, which means, indirectly, less money to give Ukraine and less ability to defend it in the long-term. This is a marathon, not a race.

While neither you, nor I, nor MAE, have quite as much info on hand to make a measured decision as to how this all ought to be handled (relative to professional politicians), long-term it is fair to say that Germany's sheer reliance on Russian hydrocarbons is a liability in this security environment and the long haul is what is most important.

Agreed.

Even with a non-rushed and well planned 5-10 year transition away from RU energy, we would still be unable to achieve pre 2022 RU prices, so we would still be sacrificing a competitve advantage Europe had in certain industries, but that is a reasonable and non-avoidable price to pay for energy independence.

However, this rushed "cutoff" is not only hurting Europe, but also did nothing to lower RU energy revenues. Selling 30% less at 200% the price is, after all, still a net positive.

I'm not necessarily sure I agree with you here, but you raise a lot of good points.

[Zinneke]

As for what those implications are: mostly it's a simple matter of remembering that when people in public office say they believe in something, they usually mean it and should be taken seriously. Assuming otherwise - assuming that everything is part of a cynical Great Game of some kind - is often a diplomatic default, but for all that it may be sophisticated it is not very clever.

This is giving public officials far too much credit. Public officials are obsessed with polls and social media, not values or any kind of grand strategy or belief - it just so happened the public Zeitgeist was unanimously backing Ukraine. The vast majority select their party out of random feels but have no sense about how or why this particular crisis affects people so much. Their short sightedness is what cost this continent dearly they should be  publicly flogged and forced to live on a living wage for the rest of their lives. Starting with Gerhard Schröder but also Johnson, VDL, Michel jr, and all the other sociopaths who are a cancer.

Putin assumed the "Great Game" precisely because he looked into the eyes of the European political class and saw profound short sightedness and mediocrity. He just misread public attitudes in Europe and how it would impact the EU response. He is barely on social media and doesn't understand modern public communication outside of his action man stunts. He didn't bank on Zelenskyy at the start of the war staying alive and leading the single most effective public diplomacy campaign in recorded history.

[CumbrianLefty]

As for what those implications are: mostly it's a simple matter of remembering that when people in public office say they believe in something, they usually mean it and should be taken seriously. Assuming otherwise - assuming that everything is part of a cynical Great Game of some kind - is often a diplomatic default, but for all that it may be sophisticated it is not very clever.

This is giving public officials far too much credit. Public officials are obsessed with polls and social media, not values or any kind of grand strategy or belief

But its a circular thing, really.

They are "obsessed" with this stuff because it is how elections are normally won.