UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Alcibiades]

The governments ability to cynically palm things off onto local government, whilst not giving them the resources to manage this effectively, is reaching the end of the role I feel.

Large scale bailouts of certain councils are likely in the near future.

I live in a Labour-run council, but a largely Tory area within it. People here complain about how local government is run, seemingly oblivious to the fact that this situation has been created by austerity.

[Alcibiades]

And the committee have now said - unanimously - that they intend to publish the Russia report before parliament rises for its summer recess next week.

Another "galaxy brain" move from Cummings gone wrong?

It is Trumpian petulance. Cummings may or may not be a “genius”, first and foremost he is a man (like Boris) who is not tolerant of not getting his own way.

[Alcibiades]

A level "results" are out today in England/Wales - already shaping up to be at least as much of a potential s***show as the Scottish experience in the last couple of weeks was.

It seems the downgrading and bias against deprived schools has not been quite as bad as in Scotland. Honestly, short of running exams, this is probably the best way it could have been done while keeping the value of grades, although perhaps with more leniency to high-achievers in schools with historically lower results.

[Alcibiades]

A level "results" are out today in England/Wales - already shaping up to be at least as much of a potential s***show as the Scottish experience in the last couple of weeks was.

It seems the downgrading and bias against deprived schools has not been quite as bad as in Scotland. Honestly, short of running exams, this is probably the best way it could have been done while keeping the value of grades, although perhaps with more leniency to high-achievers in schools with historically lower results.

I just went through my final results day in Scotland (3As at Advanced Higher so yay me!) and I would have to agree.

The concept of moderation via a statistical model wasn't the problem and that's where I disagree with the majority of the criticism. The problem was that the model was entirely too lazy and didn't deliver on what they had promised; most importantly the failure to take samples from school to test how robust internal moderation had been before they applied their own.

There was a lot of other horrendous communication problems from the SQA but those will happen any year. It won't affect me but the pass rates this year are going to be a problem into the future, I would imagine grade boundaries would need to come down by at least 5% next year to keep to the new standard (and they'll have to be to the same standard if the justification for this year's high pass rate is that we will be disadvantaged by COVID).

Hopefully this will lead to a new and better system where core qualifications (GCSE/Nat 5 Maths and English) can be criteria based and allow anyone to pass and traditional exam systems at A-Level and Higher. Not too optimistic.

Congrats on your results!

I think that contrary to initial predictions this year has actually shown that written external exams are necessary.

Having criteria based exams sounds good, but in practise would be very difficult. How do you gauge, year on year, what is a 9/A*/C etc. level of achievement? The reason that grade %s are the same every year is because that it is assumed each cohort has the overall same ability, which is reasonable in such a large sample size.

[Alcibiades]

Grades in England will now also be awarded on the basis of teacher predictions. A number of implications:
- What about centres who were more realistic with their predictions than others and consequently had fewer marked down? Are they being penalised for their honesty?
- Next year, students with CAGs who have deferred will be competing with students with exam-based grades. The former will obviously be higher than the latter.
- Will grades be taken less seriously because of inflation?

In my opinion, the system which should have been used was that teachers submit grades with a short justification, along with examples of work. An examiner then makes a judgement on whether this is the right grade. Obviously too late now, underscores govt’s incompetence. This move has been made entirely under public pressure and with no consideration for the consequences. Or of course actually sitting exams...

[Alcibiades]

The three major challenges that are going to come over the next 3 months are....

1.) Do the Government extend or revise the furlough to save parts of the economy?

2.) Do the Government safely handle the return for schools?

3.) Will the Prime Minister get a cabinet who knows how to handle a brief?

If the answer to all three is no & we have the vicious winter predicted (floods, flu, spike & no-deal) we're heading into somewhere a lot worse than a tied poll.

1. They likely do, though do not be surprised if its after a U-turn.
2. For the most part yes, but there may be some controversy and chaos in areas hit by local lockdowns.
3. No; loyalty will continued to be valued above competence.

Brexit has understandably taken a back seat in recent months, but I think a lot of people could be in for a nasty shock come January. In fact, I’ll be bold and say Brexit is going to be a bigger disaster over the winter for the government than coronavirus.

I very much doubt that the Tories will get more votes than Labour at the next election. Whether Labour get a majority or even the most seats is another question entirely.

[Alcibiades]

Saw this on reddit and was curious as to what you guys think



https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/ijayhq/a_map_the_different_catagories_of_voter_used_by/

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html

Apparently the classifications are calculated from regression models which estimate a score for each constituency on social, economic and globalist/nationalist axes, then classify them based on these. Some are a bit strange, but by and large accurate to the extent that such an exercise can ever be. I think the Tory-held Scottish seats being classified as “progressive” highlights how left to the rest of the UK Scotland is. (Btw the progressive category is not in the US sense of the word but rather centre-left, New Labour/Lib Dem-ish.)

[Alcibiades]

Saw this on reddit and was curious as to what you guys think



https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/ijayhq/a_map_the_different_catagories_of_voter_used_by/

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html

Apparently the classifications are calculated from regression models which estimate a score for each constituency on social, economic and globalist/nationalist axes, then classify them based on these. Some are a bit strange, but by and large accurate to the extent that such an exercise can ever be. I think the Tory-held Scottish seats being classified as “progressive” highlights how left to the rest of the UK Scotland is. (Btw the progressive category is not in the US sense of the word but rather centre-left, New Labour/Lib Dem-ish.)

Yeah, that's still gibberish. There is no similarity between the politics of Perth & North Perthshire, Cambridge and Birmingham Ladywood and none of them have 'New Labour' politics. The main thing this map shows is that the underlying model is a bad one.

Maybe ‘New Labour’ was the wrong term. I meant economically centre-left, pro-Europe. Scotland is difficult to compare as its politics have become so focussed on independence lines in recent years.

I actually would argue that those three seats are fairly similar. They vote for left-leaning parties and are strongly pro-Remain.

[Alcibiades]

I actually would argue that those three seats are fairly similar. They vote for left-leaning parties and are strongly pro-Remain.

I question whether the second statement is actually true (the Tories matched their UK national share in Perthshire 2017 and had a comfortable plurality in local elections; the SNP representatives for the area have consistently been on the right of the party), but even aside from that why on earth would you argue that Cambridge and Birmingham Ladywood are at all similar? I just genuinely can't understand how you could come to that conclusion at all.

Although actually, I've found a new worst bit of that map: Tottenham is classed as 'progressive' and Hornsey & Wood Green as 'strong left'. Lolololol.

Cambridge and Ladywood are demographically very different, but show strong similarities in their voting record in both the Commons and the EU referendum.

[Alcibiades]

I actually would argue that those three seats are fairly similar. They vote for left-leaning parties and are strongly pro-Remain.

I question whether the second statement is actually true (the Tories matched their UK national share in Perthshire 2017 and had a comfortable plurality in local elections; the SNP representatives for the area have consistently been on the right of the party), but even aside from that why on earth would you argue that Cambridge and Birmingham Ladywood are at all similar? I just genuinely can't understand how you could come to that conclusion at all.

Although actually, I've found a new worst bit of that map: Tottenham is classed as 'progressive' and Hornsey & Wood Green as 'strong left'. Lolololol.

Cambridge and Ladywood are demographically very different, but show strong similarities in their voting record in both the Commons and the EU referendum.

This is very much not true.

How so? One is affluent and educated, one is more deprived and very Asian, but they vote similarly. You can draw the distinction of Cambridge’s Lib Dem past, but this is somewhat minor.

[Alcibiades]

In that Labour get 75% plus in Ladywood and the Lib Dems lose their deposit, whereas Cambridge was Labour breaking 50% is counted as a landslide. This is not complicated.

Sure. They’re by no means kissing cousins. But you could still find two far more different constituencies.

[Alcibiades]

My first thought was shock that Beckenham could be described as being full of Yuppies!

It's full of golf bores, UKIP voters & OAPs.

Yeah, “yuppies” (are there even any in this day and age?) wasn’t the best name for this category, which is essentially the fabled social liberal, conservative demographic (or Remainer Tories). Should have called them liberal conservatives.

[Alcibiades]

My first thought was shock that Beckenham could be described as being full of Yuppies!

It's full of golf bores, UKIP voters & OAPs.

Yeah, “yuppies” (are there even any in this day and age?) wasn’t the best name for this category, which is essentially the fabled social liberal, conservative demographic (or Remainer Tories). Should have called them liberal conservatives.

But even Beckenham isn't an example of this! It's a seat that in my mind is very right wing- it still voted Tory in a '97 by-election after the then MP was caught in a sex scandal!

Of course my own brain gets annoyed at the idea of giving seats a description like this; some seats, especially in London have different wards which are worlds apart in terms of ethnicity, child poverty, education, income etc

You’re right in that Beckenham certainly has more of a right-wing exurban feel to it, but it did actually vote to Remain.

[Alcibiades]

Sadly, I highly doubt this alone will help Labour do much better in the next election. Starmer may be more capable of getting a hearing than a polarizing leader like Corbyn - the chattering classes won't look down their nose at him or his ideas nearly as much - but he's just as much a creature of distant, rarified, metropolitan professionalism as Corbyn is. That's to say, he's no more capable of affecting genuine empathy from Northern working class constituencies than Corbyn did (and Johnson does, preposterously). Unlike Corbyn, however, Starmer can't rely on the enthusiasm of a mass movement or the promise of genuine change to magnify his credibility. Far from it.

If this was *all* there is to things, Biden wouldn't be well ahead of Trump in the US. But he is.

I think some of the anti-Starmer left genuinely overestimate how much his background puts swing voters - even in the fabled "red wall" - off. And its not just a minor detail that he won't get the full on media assault that Corbyn did (over a period of close to five years, don't forget)

Still, I agree with you about Phil Wilson. Ugh.

(did his lengthy screed even acknowledge that the stance he had taken on Brexit and tried to get the wider party to adopt - for almost wholly factional anti-Corbyn reasons, mind, not because he ever genuinely agreed with it - was utterly and profoundly toxic to so many voters in his own seat?)

Of course not. He did manage to find 400 words to expound on the 'chose the wrong brother' axiom. And people say it's Corbyn supporters who are stuck in the past!

People who are still David Miliband stans, a full decade after he basically threw away the Labour leadership, really are amongst the weirdest cults out there (no surprise that they have a fair few #FBPEers in their ranks)

While there is not much point obsessing over an internal election from 10 years ago, it is probably safe to say that there would be a Labour government (or at least one from May 2015 to May 2020), and no Brexit had David Milliband become leader.

[Alcibiades]

No it isn't "safe" to say that at all, indeed the hard objective evidence that it would have been *likely* (as opposed to possible, as most hypotheticals are) is in fact remarkably scant.

To your first point, that is why I said “likely safe”.

To your second, I think the main reason Ed Milliband lost was that he was the British Dukakis - that is to say he lost an election that was his to lose because was scared to respond to ridiculous accusations from the Tories, chief among them that Labour caused the financial crisis. The Tories, on paper, would have been expected to lose, at the head of a government which had pursued unpopular and unnecessary budget cuts, and indeed polled at an according level throughout their term, but pulled out a victory with the above campaign strategy.

Is it possible that David Milliband would have been hit by the same accusations and failed to respond, but unlikely. Furthermore, he projects a much less weak persona than his Ed; however fair or not such a perception is, this is clearly what many voters saw, which leads me to suspect the Tories may not have tried such brazen attacks on him in the first place.

[Alcibiades]

If you want to play hypotheticals, how about some fantasy version of Alan Johnson with political ambition? Unlike either Miliband, a man who was (is) very well liked with the broad public and a man totally lacking in that stilted wonkish manner of speak common to many of the younger figures from the Blair and Brown governments. Of course there's the rub: he doesn't have any political ambition and never really did - this is also why he lacked much in the way of political energy; not a driven man in that sense, so none of the urgency and electricity that is so absolutely critical to political success.

Where would you put Gordon Brown in with all of this - in many ways quite brilliant and incredibly intelligent, but who harboured political ambition without ever really seeming that up for the cut and thrust of campaigning, electioneering and interacting with the public?

[Alcibiades]

But with significantly crappier weather.

It was like 50 degrees when I was there in January.

50 degrees? World-record breaking temperatures, let alone in Britain!

[Alcibiades]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54158832

'Waspi' womern lose appeal. Which I agree with; there had to be a cut off point somewhere. And you can't bind policy to past decisions on pensions, tax and NI.

In this day and age, it would be pretty bizarre for women, considering they live considerably longer on average than men, to be able to retire early.

[Alcibiades]

But with significantly crappier weather.

It was like 50 degrees when I was there in January.

50 degrees? World-record breaking temperatures, let alone in Britain!

Unless they mean Fahrenheit, of course

Cross-cultural confusion is what my joke was getting at...

[Alcibiades]

This is not a parody.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1309903624374546433?s=20

Good lord.

[Alcibiades]

The school meals issue does seem to be a rather odd hill for the Tories to choose to die on.

[Alcibiades]

Seems like Starmer is the real deal, he’s not screwing around. If he takes Labour back in a more Blairist direction, I might root for them again.

He does seem like a credible leader, I prefer him to Corbyn for sure. But hopefully his policies aren't like the 2000s, but he can take a lot of the good stuff from the 2017 manifesto and be a more credible messenger for it.

That's the best case scenario. Sadly, it's highly unlikely. We'll need a new leader in order to build on the progress made in 2017.

Not a loaded question, just genuinely curious: how do you think Labour progressed under Corbyn? Obviously you think that their policies have become better and more beneficial to society, but do you actually think they’ve become more electable, and does that matter to you?

[Alcibiades]

Joe Anderson, the Mayor of Liverpool, has been arrested on charges of bribery and intimidation in connection with a local corruption scandal involving building contracts. Also arrested - oh dear God - is a seventy two year old man from the Aigburth district of the city. It just so happens that a well-known property developer and former leading local government figure in the city happens to live in Aigburth and is, well, seventy two years old.

Hatton?

[Alcibiades]

Another thing is that earlier in the week, fishing at least appeared on the way to being resolved. The cynical might imagine its an easier thing to get people riled up about than the "level playing field".

I find it bizarre how outsized of a role fishing has played in the Brexit debate, when the sector accounts for 0.12% of national GDP and there are 12,000 fishermen in the UK.

I guess, as you said, it’s a topic about which patriotic feelings can be roused.

[Alcibiades]

'Long Covid' seems to be for many "you're very tired for a few months after this" and "I'm anxious after suffering from a potentially deadly disease"; the jury is still out on how many people will have serious long-term health impacts.

‘Long Covid’ does seem to be consistent with classic postviral symptoms; I wouldn’t say it’s something especially shocking.