UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Blair]

Strikes Again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1532778456072732672?ref_src=twsr...

[MABA 2020]

I don’t think people have considered how badly he could do in a secret ballot.

He may still be MPs' best option, but if he just scrapes by, that certainly might not do him much good, as May can attest.

Just scraping by would be the worst case scenario, so fingers crossed

[Torrain]

A couple more Tory critics trickled out over the Jubilee week:
Andrew Bowie (who sits on a 843 vote majority over the SNP, and was Theresa May’s PPS when she was PM).
John Fell, a 2019 Red Wall MP, who sits on the Justice Committee.
Dame Caroline Dinenage, former minister (with service at Education, Women & Equality,  Health & Social Care, Digital & Culture), who was reshuffled from the frontbench in 2021 by Johnson. 

Which means we’re up to 45 MPs publicly attacking Johnson for his conduct in Partygate, of whom around 28 have confirmed submission of a letter to the 1922.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What's the maximum possible size of Cabinet ? just wondering if Boris is going to to massively infalte the cabinet to bribe the MP's with jobs.

[Silent Hunter]

What's the maximum possible size of Cabinet ? just wondering if Boris is going to to massively infalte the cabinet to bribe the MP's with jobs.

There isn't a legal maximum, but the table isn't that big. The reason it's called "Cabinet" is because that was a term for a small private room.

[CumbrianLefty]

What's the maximum possible size of Cabinet ? just wondering if Boris is going to to massively infalte the cabinet to bribe the MP's with jobs.

Well there's also more junior posts. But when the likes of Suella Braverman already have high profile posts, how much lower can the barrel be scraped?

[Torrain]

Adding more Cabinet ministers would require adding new departments to Government, at a time when Johnson has committed to slashing the civil service. And even adding more low-ranking ministers, or PPSs will be hard too, given Johnson has already swelled the ranks (the man himself has 4 PPSs!).

I think he’s planning to just make a bunch of empty promises about reshuffles, knighthoods and sending grandees to the House of Lords. Chuck in a couple of ambassadorships, some red meat policy, and potentially a commitment to fight one/no more elections if he’s particularly desperate.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1533136601794093057?s=20&t=TwGfkY...

[Blair]

Big news is that letters can be submitted by Whatsapp- there were hilarious tales of MPs saying they couldn't submit letters as they were too afraid they'd get caught dropping it off. Of course they were lying as you can simply email it or put it in the post...

It would ofc be Labour's dream for him to win a narrow confidence vote & then watch as the Tories have to keep him until the election; especially if the privileges committee find that he has lied. The Conservatives have not handled this very well. 

[Blair]

I very much wonder if this line really adds much.

Claims of tensions between Canzini and Harri linger, despite Canzini recently buying the spin doctor a box of chocolates

[TheTide]

Big news is that letters can be submitted by Whatsapp- there were hilarious tales of MPs saying they couldn't submit letters as they were too afraid they'd get caught dropping it off. Of course they were lying as you can simply email it or put it in the post...

It would ofc be Labour's dream for him to win a narrow confidence vote & then watch as the Tories have to keep him until the election; especially if the privileges committee find that he has lied. The Conservatives have not handled this very well. 

A narrow win with further scandals, polling declines and by-election losses would probably only delay his exit by a few months. The 1922 Committee can get rid of the one-year rule at any time.

[brucejoel99]

FWIW, the betting markets (not that they know stuff that we don't) would rank the top favorites in order right now as:

1 (tie). Tugendhat 4/1
1 (tie). Hunt 4/1
3. Liz Truss 7/1
4. Rishi Sunak 15/2
5. Ben Wallace 8/1
6. Penny Mordaunt 9/1

Clearly tangential, but only noting it since we know nothing 'til Wed. anyway. Also, interesting that the top 3 voted Remain! I've gotta say, given how BoJo has done his utmost to take out any potential Cabinet rivals, I really didn't anticipate the parliamentary rank-&-file invoking something of a nuclear option when everybody in their government is a f**k-up: turning to a backbencher (& I mean a real backbencher, not BoJo19) who doesn't seem to have any particular skeletons in the closet. To that extent, Tugenhadt's rise is very interesting. He comes off as much more competent than any of the others, giving off the same "sensible" vibe in Select Committee sessions as Starmer does in general, but just with a blue rosette. Not to mention, his being a veteran, which the British public would love, also lends credibility to his being pretty hawkish on foreign policy. If this is really happening & he can win the leadership, I think Keir should be ready for the ride of his life.

[TheTide]

FWIW, the betting markets (not that they know stuff that we don't) would rank the top favorites in order right now as:

1 (tie). Tugendhat 4/1
1 (tie). Hunt 4/1
3. Liz Truss 7/1
4. Rishi Sunak 15/2
5. Ben Wallace 8/1
6. Penny Mordaunt 9/1

Clealry tangential, but only noting it since we know nothing 'til Wed. anyway. Also, interesting that the top 3 voted Remain! I've gotta say, given how BoJo has done his utmost to take out any potential Cabinet rivals, I really didn't anticipate the parliamentary rank-&-file invoking something of a nuclear option when everybody in their government is a f**k-up: turning to a backbencher (& I mean a real backbencher, not BoJo19) who doesn't seem to have any particular skeletons in the closet. To that extent, Tugenhadt's rise is very interesting. He comes off as much more competent than any of the others, giving off the same "sensible" vibe in Select Committee sessions as Starmer does in general, but just with a blue rosette. Not to mention, his being a veteran, which the British public would love, also lends credibility to his being pretty hawkish on foreign policy. If this is really happening & he can win the leadership, I think Keir should be ready for the ride of his life.

My own comments on each of them:

Tugendhat - A light(er)weight version of Rory Stewart. I can see him being the candidate of the FBPErs but not many actual Tory MPs or members.

Hunt - Liked by the media, probably good electorally for the 'Blue Wall'. The 'Red Wall' is another matter. Kind of a George Osborne type. Can't see him getting to the membership. In fact he's more likely to be another Andrea Leadsom - she made it to the final two in 2016 and then stood again in 2019 and got a comical number of MPs' votes.

Truss - She apparently made some interesting comments about the Monarchy when she was a Lib Dem. Not that this is a topical matter at all........ Aside from that she is a hardcore economic Thatcherite who probably only supported Remain because of careerist reasons. Amongst Brexiteers she's probably now significantly more popular than the two main Tories in the Leave campaign (Johnson and Gove).

Sunak - Surely he's done for. Hard to know what his pitch would be. Circumstances of the past two years have led to him being the most interventionist Chancellor in decades. If he stuck to this in a leadership election he would have issues getting anywhere, and if he went in a Thatcherite direction it would seem insincere (although like Truss that's probably where his sympathies lie). And that's without getting into the various scandals.

Wallace - I'd actually make him the favourite. One of the core arguments (a stupid one) from Johnson's supporters over the past few months is that it a PM shouldn't be changed during a time of War. He is both Defence Secretary and a Johnson loyalist without being obvious about it or caught up in scandals. Would get support from all wings of the party if he played it right.

Mourdaunt - I don't much about her other than she was previously hyped up when May was in trouble. Fairly young, fairly good-looking (apparently? I don't know much about female beauty). Pragmatic Brexiteer (was pro-May deal).


There are some others who I'd rank as having a better chance than a few of those above.

[Cassius]

If we look back at Tory leadership changes in recent history, the party tends to go for the candidate with a persona that’s broadly contra to that of his/her predecessor:

Thatcher-Major: Here you went from Queen Margaret I to Major’s low key “honest John” persona.
Duncan Smith-Howard: Dull right-winger with no ministerial experience to veteran minister and excellent parliamentary performer (different story with the electorate as a whole of course).
Howard-Cameron: Aging, veteran right-winger to a young(ish) one-term MP setting out his stall as the ‘change’ candidate.
Cameron-May: The insouciant, Etonian, ‘essay crisis’ PM to the hard-working, conscientious, no-frills Vicar’s daughter.
May: From the PM with no personality to the PM with a surfeit of personality (and of course from ex-Remainer to one of the leading figures in Vote Leave).

Ultimately you get rid of a leader because they’re not the right fit for what the electorate seems to be looking for. Three years ago the party needed a candidate with a discernible personality (something in short supply in that particular leadership contest), who could mend bridges with Leave voters and put up a credible performance on the campaign trail (although Johnson has in fact been a surprisingly weak campaigner as PM in my opinion). Now the party needs a sober goody-goody to distance itself from the farrago of s*** that has hit the fan in the last six months, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the dull dongs like Tugendhat, Hunt or Wallace gets it. The latter in particular  could be one to watch given the ongoing situation in Ukraine and the fact that, unlike the other two, he doesn’t seem particularly unpalatable to the right. On the other hand he’s more of a non-entity so that’ll be a challenge for him.

[Pericles]

Big news is that letters can be submitted by Whatsapp- there were hilarious tales of MPs saying they couldn't submit letters as they were too afraid they'd get caught dropping it off. Of course they were lying as you can simply email it or put it in the post...

It would ofc be Labour's dream for him to win a narrow confidence vote & then watch as the Tories have to keep him until the election; especially if the privileges committee find that he has lied. The Conservatives have not handled this very well. 

A narrow win with further scandals, polling declines and by-election losses would probably only delay his exit by a few months. The 1922 Committee can get rid of the one-year rule at any time.

Besides, a leadership change in late 2023 wouldn't be such a disaster for the Tories. Plenty of politicians have won elections having only been the party leader for a few months. Boris did, after all.  Even if he was unusually high-profile, having less time for the new leader to rack up their own baggage could be an advantage.

[MABA 2020]

Big news is that letters can be submitted by Whatsapp- there were hilarious tales of MPs saying they couldn't submit letters as they were too afraid they'd get caught dropping it off. Of course they were lying as you can simply email it or put it in the post...

It would ofc be Labour's dream for him to win a narrow confidence vote & then watch as the Tories have to keep him until the election; especially if the privileges committee find that he has lied. The Conservatives have not handled this very well. 

A narrow win with further scandals, polling declines and by-election losses would probably only delay his exit by a few months. The 1922 Committee can get rid of the one-year rule at any time.

Besides, a leadership change in late 2023 wouldn't be such a disaster for the Tories. Plenty of politicians have won elections having only been the party leader for a few months. Boris did, after all.  Even if he was unusually high-profile, having less time for the new leader to rack up their own baggage could be an advantage.

But the longer they stick with Boris the more potentially damaging it could be to the parties overall popularity, they are better off getting rid of him now than waiting another year.

[TheTide]

If we look back at Tory leadership changes in recent history, the party tends to go for the candidate with a persona that’s broadly contra to that of his/her predecessor:

Thatcher-Major: Here you went from Queen Margaret I to Major’s low key “honest John” persona.
Duncan Smith-Howard: Dull right-winger with no ministerial experience to veteran minister and excellent parliamentary performer (different story with the electorate as a whole of course).
Howard-Cameron: Aging, veteran right-winger to a young(ish) one-term MP setting out his stall as the ‘change’ candidate.
Cameron-May: The insouciant, Etonian, ‘essay crisis’ PM to the hard-working, conscientious, no-frills Vicar’s daughter.
May: From the PM with no personality to the PM with a surfeit of personality (and of course from ex-Remainer to one of the leading figures in Vote Leave).

Ultimately you get rid of a leader because they’re not the right fit for what the electorate seems to be looking for. Three years ago the party needed a candidate with a discernible personality (something in short supply in that particular leadership contest), who could mend bridges with Leave voters and put up a credible performance on the campaign trail (although Johnson has in fact been a surprisingly weak campaigner as PM in my opinion). Now the party needs a sober goody-goody to distance itself from the farrago of s*** that has hit the fan in the last six months, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the dull dongs like Tugendhat, Hunt or Wallace gets it. The latter in particular  could be one to watch given the ongoing situation in Ukraine and the fact that, unlike the other two, he doesn’t seem particularly unpalatable to the right. On the other hand he’s more of a non-entity so that’ll be a challenge for him.

What are Johnson's, let's say, three defining characteristics? Liar might just be one, he appears to lack any clear ideological leanings (he ranges from social liberalism to right-wing populism socially and free marketism to interventionism economically) and he still has what could be called charisma (at least compared to most other politicians). So, someone who is reasonably honest, has some clear ideological leanings and is uncharismatic.

This leads me to Javid, who doesn't seem to get talked about much. Javid hasn't been caught up in much dishonesty or scandal (again, this is relative), he seems to be a genuine Ayn Rand free market type with some kind of social libertarian streak and he speaks like a robot. He also comes from a much more humble background.

[brucejoel99]

Interestingly, the UK hasn't had a PM in modern history who hadn't been Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, or Home Secretary beforehand (or LotO in the case of winning an election). It's obviously not a real rule, especially now that party members are partially involved, but in the event that a VoNC is both triggered & successful, MPs will surely think about who has the necessary experience to be PM (which may be a strike against even a backbench committee-chair like Tugendhat walking into No. 10 with 0 Cabinet experience). The list of such parliamentarians available to the party is Sunak, Patel, Truss, Javid, Raab, Hunt, & May. Throw in IDS too for the hell of it if his own tenure as leader of the party is counted (even though the bar for becoming LotO, as he did, is obviously a lot lower). Anybody else has a historically uphill battle to break the trend.

[Cassius]

If we look back at Tory leadership changes in recent history, the party tends to go for the candidate with a persona that’s broadly contra to that of his/her predecessor:

Thatcher-Major: Here you went from Queen Margaret I to Major’s low key “honest John” persona.
Duncan Smith-Howard: Dull right-winger with no ministerial experience to veteran minister and excellent parliamentary performer (different story with the electorate as a whole of course).
Howard-Cameron: Aging, veteran right-winger to a young(ish) one-term MP setting out his stall as the ‘change’ candidate.
Cameron-May: The insouciant, Etonian, ‘essay crisis’ PM to the hard-working, conscientious, no-frills Vicar’s daughter.
May: From the PM with no personality to the PM with a surfeit of personality (and of course from ex-Remainer to one of the leading figures in Vote Leave).

Ultimately you get rid of a leader because they’re not the right fit for what the electorate seems to be looking for. Three years ago the party needed a candidate with a discernible personality (something in short supply in that particular leadership contest), who could mend bridges with Leave voters and put up a credible performance on the campaign trail (although Johnson has in fact been a surprisingly weak campaigner as PM in my opinion). Now the party needs a sober goody-goody to distance itself from the farrago of s*** that has hit the fan in the last six months, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the dull dongs like Tugendhat, Hunt or Wallace gets it. The latter in particular  could be one to watch given the ongoing situation in Ukraine and the fact that, unlike the other two, he doesn’t seem particularly unpalatable to the right. On the other hand he’s more of a non-entity so that’ll be a challenge for him.

What are Johnson's, let's say, three defining characteristics? Liar might just be one, he appears to lack any clear ideological leanings (he ranges from social liberalism to right-wing populism socially and free marketism to interventionism economically) and he still has what could be called charisma (at least compared to most other politicians). So, someone who is reasonably honest, has some clear ideological leanings and is uncharismatic.

This leads me to Javid, who doesn't seem to get talked about much. Javid hasn't been caught up in much dishonesty or scandal (again, this is relative), he seems to be a genuine Ayn Rand free market type with some kind of social libertarian streak and he speaks like a robot. He also comes from a much more humble background.

For me Javid has the problems of Truss (free-marketeer), Sunak (very wealthy City type) and Hunt (dull as dust) all rolled into one, plus he'd be a retread in any leadership contest (historically these don't tend to perform particularly well in Tory leadership elections), so I don't see him going far.

Really the party absolutely does need someone who is, if not exactly 'charismatic', a good communicator. The problem (and this seems to be a peculiarly British problem), is that the party's senior echelons are absolutely devoid of good communicators. This was also problem in the last leadership contest, which essentially pitted Johnson and Stewart against eight empty suits and oddballs (of course you could say that the two mentioned were also oddballs, but I think there's a fine distinction that can be drawn) who had nothing substantial to say about anything, but I think it's fair to say its probably gotten worse in the intervening time period.

Of course, this isn't necessarily a problem against the two knights of the realm, given that neither of them are exactly William Jennings Bryan. What it does do is open up the possibility for some sort of outsider to come in - I'm not familiar with Tugendhat as a communicator (I know he got very angry about Afghanistan last year but I didn't watch the speech), but given the poor quality of the cabinet and ex-cabinet candidates, I'd say he could certainly fancy his chances if he played his cards right. He's clearly on manoeuvres, given that he recently threw arch-rebel Tobias Ellwood under the bus for suggesting that Britain should rejoin the single market ('I'm really one of you ERG'). On the other hand, if there's one thing that the fabled 'moderate Conservative' politician is good at doing, it's playing their cards wrong, so we'll really have to see on him.

[YL]

Besides, a leadership change in late 2023 wouldn't be such a disaster for the Tories. Plenty of politicians have won elections having only been the party leader for a few months. Boris did, after all.  Even if he was unusually high-profile, having less time for the new leader to rack up their own baggage could be an advantage.

Indeed I think an election in a new leader's honeymoon period is one of the better scenarios for the Tories.

[CumbrianLefty]

Big news is that letters can be submitted by Whatsapp- there were hilarious tales of MPs saying they couldn't submit letters as they were too afraid they'd get caught dropping it off. Of course they were lying as you can simply email it or put it in the post...

It would ofc be Labour's dream for him to win a narrow confidence vote & then watch as the Tories have to keep him until the election; especially if the privileges committee find that he has lied. The Conservatives have not handled this very well. 

Even if he wins a confidence vote soon, this is far from guaranteed. May won hers and was still forced out after another six months, despite supposedly then being "safe" for a year.

[Torrain]

There’s some decent analysis in the Times article. But this little bit of backbiting might be the best quote:

If Johnson does badly but refuses to budge, a former cabinet minister said: "It is the job of the chief whip to decide what is in the best interests of the party and present him with a brandy and a revolver. The problem is that Boris would probably drink the brandy and shoot the chief."

[Blair]

Big news is that letters can be submitted by Whatsapp- there were hilarious tales of MPs saying they couldn't submit letters as they were too afraid they'd get caught dropping it off. Of course they were lying as you can simply email it or put it in the post...

It would ofc be Labour's dream for him to win a narrow confidence vote & then watch as the Tories have to keep him until the election; especially if the privileges committee find that he has lied. The Conservatives have not handled this very well. 

Even if he wins a confidence vote soon, this is far from guaranteed. May won hers and was still forced out after another six months, despite supposedly then being "safe" for a year.

Didn’t Wragg try this (albeit it far too early) and basically failed before it got to a vote?

A rough count of the executive gives Boris a majority on it- although the fact they tried to shaft Brady in the election does show they know the risk.

[Blair]

My thoughts on the leadership choices... in likelihood of winning.

1.) Truss- ha. She is the only person who I've seen people from all sides of the party genuinely worried about becoming leader/PM. She is clearly going to run as some sort of energiser tax cutting Thatcherite (or more accurately what she thinks Thatcherism is!) There will be a very big effort to move votes around to stop her getting into the final two, but I feel this is always overblown & is a way of certain MPs pretending they have influence. She has appeared a much better foreign Secretary than Raab & how she was expected to be- people will underestimate her like Boris in 2019...

2.) Tugendhat- if he gets past the early rounds (more below) then he has a very good shot through the pure media adulation he gets from his background, the fact that he can tie his shoelaces & frankly because he is what certain people think a tory leader should be like. He has been wise to avoid being under-secretary of state for Potholes or whatever positions have likely been offered by May or Boris. He will have to win the weird 'one nation' primary...

3.) Javid- the John Major of the contest. Relatively lucky that Health at least appears to have calmed down as a brief and well he's likely to be everyone's second choice. I'm old enough to remember when he was considered on the right of the party! He was rumoured to be a leaver but backed remain because his patron (George Osborne) was a remainer. He was also one of the few people who came off better in the 2019 leadership campaign & has shown a relative amount of political bravery.

4.) Hunt- I wonder if he gets coverage purely because he came 2nd & because he's not in the cabinet. I very much struggle to see his appeal outside of ex-Cameron & May era Ministers and those worried about the Lib-Dems- but like Tugendhat he will become more attractive the more it looks like HMS Tory is sinking badly...

5.) Wallace- unclear if he wants it & if I was an MP I'd be cautious how he did when not dealing with Foreign Affairs. The MOD broadly makes their SOS look important, non-partisan and above the fray- with notable exceptions. If Johnson wanted to help an ally (Wallace backed him both times) he would give him one of the big three jobs to see how he does and let him prove his worth...

6.) Sunak- his only hope is that the contest is in the very distant future when he hasn't been written off by the entire Lobby & parliamentary party. People will write about the fines being that ended his chance but I have been banging the drum about his problem since last October- his decision to cut Universal Credit was extremely unpopular, his decision to raise taxes was even worse & his reaction in the media to both his Budget & his non-entity 'statement' in March raised serious alarm bells.

7.) Zahawi- was spoken about a lot when he got promoted but he's not exactly been that dynamic at Education & there's been a small grumbles that he's not exactly done a lot. 

8,9,10- the usual motley collection of egotists, under-ministers and random backbenchers who run, get 2 votes and then trade it with whoever they think will win in the hope of becoming Minister of State for Sport. It's very undignified but hilarious. Malthouse for Leader!

[Torrain]

Reporters for the i and the Sun both seem to think that the backbenchers have put together a briefing packet to coordinate against Johnson. Includes recent polling, and cites the St. Paul's booing incident as an example of how badly Johnson's popularity has tanked:
https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1533473550249693188