UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Blair]

Now the interesting thing will be the first round vote- assuming that you have 5-6 people running. The One-Nation caucus in the Conservative Party is much like the 'Tribune Group' in the PLP- the name was once attached to a clear ideology, with a clear set of MPs, but now it's basically just a tribute act with a name to put on a press release. I just checked- they have 110 MPs!

If they actually managed to get around one candidate they would do well- but the problem is that the group was always divided between well socially liberal Thatcherites, conservative modernisers & actual Wet MPs.

In 2019 it was split three ways- between Stewart (the wet!), Hancock & Hunt.

On an aside the rather interesting rule is that whoever wins the ballot on the first round has each time gone on to win the election! The plotting & horse trading is quite overstated.

[brucejoel99]

On an aside the rather interesting rule is that whoever wins the ballot on the first round has each time gone on to win the election! The plotting & horse trading is quite overstated.

Portillo won 2001's first ballot, in the first contest held under the current rules that were introduced by Hague, & then didn't even make the members' vote. David Davis also beat Cameron in the 2005 contest's first ballot of MPs.

[Alcibiades]

4.) Hunt- I wonder if he gets coverage purely because he came 2nd & because he's not in the cabinet. I very much struggle to see his appeal outside of ex-Cameron & May era Ministers and those worried about the Lib-Dems- but like Tugendhat he will become more attractive the more it looks like HMS Tory is sinking badly...

I think the other big reason Hunt’s spoken about as a potentially strong candidate in the media is that he is generally regarded to have done an impressive job as Health Select Committee chair, getting in some good jabs against the government’s more egregious failures on Covid. Now, this is of course makes him a relative Covid ‘hawk’ when compared to a lot of Tory backbenchers, but it could help him with the ‘One Nation primary’ you mention.

[Blair]

Reporters for the i and the Sun both seem to think that the backbenchers have put together a briefing packet to coordinate against Johnson. Includes recent polling, and cites the St. Paul's booing incident as an example of how badly Johnson's popularity has tanked:
https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1533473550249693188

Funnily enough what has gotten attention is that this is A.) Relative proof it is coordinated B.) Coming from someone experienced in swaying Conservative MPs- you can tell by the style.

On an aside the rather interesting rule is that whoever wins the ballot on the first round has each time gone on to win the election! The plotting & horse trading is quite overstated.

Portillo won 2001's first ballot, in the first contest held under the current rules that were introduced by Hague, & then didn't even make the members' vote. David Davis also beat Cameron in the 2005 contest's first ballot of MPs.

Ah yes my brain thought DC won the first round in 2005 for some reason...

[Blair]

Ah never change Westminster. A review into NHS leadership structures by check notes *ex military hardman* will do the job.

I'm sure we'll see stuff briefed to the Mail & Telegraph about cutting back on 'woke' management roles & red tape.

Anyway this is very thin gruel.

Amid accusations from some of Johnson’s supporters of No 10 complacency, the prime minister will focus this week on the NHS backlog, heralding progress the government is making to tackle waiting lists, in a nod to the use of cash raised by tax increases that are unpopular in sections of the party.

Later in “health week”, a major review into NHS management by the former vice-chief of the defence staff Gen Sir Gordon Messenger will propose an overhaul of NHS leadership structures to helping failing trusts replicate those that are performing best.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/05/boris-johnson-allies-vote-of-no-confidence-conservative-party?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Blair]

Jesse Norman, a long standing former Minister has written an extremely damning letter which pretty much sets out the case for the opposition- accuses Government of having no agenda, of doing things that are cruel (Deportations to Rwanda) and unnecessary (selling off Channel 4).

Norman was a Minister in the Government until last September and was offered another job but chose to quit.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jesse_Norman/status/1533699235417403393?ref_src=twsrc...

[Torrain]

Official release from Graham Brady:

[Torrain]

Any predictions about the margin?

My gut says Johnson survives the vote, but is permanently damaged by a close race, and large rebellious contingent. Removing him isn’t out of the question, but still feels like an uphill effort, given how many MPs are on the ministerial payroll, owe their seats to him from 2019, or both. 

[YL]

Any predictions about the margin?

My gut says Johnson survives the vote, but is permanently damaged by a close race, and large rebellious contingent. Removing him isn’t out of the question, but still feels like an uphill effort, given how many MPs are on the ministerial payroll, owe their seats to him from 2019, or both. 

That's my best guess too: close, but I think he's more likely than not to hold on.  Though some people who won in 2019 may be thinking of what happens in 2024 if he's still leader.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Any predictions about the margin?

My gut says Johnson survives the vote, but is permanently damaged by a close race, and large rebellious contingent. Removing him isn’t out of the question, but still feels like an uphill effort, given how many MPs are on the ministerial payroll, owe their seats to him from 2019, or both. 

I think he goes down by around 20-30 MPs, I don't think he has enough hardcore support left and I think oppostion to him is likley to snowball especialy when it comes down to an anonymous vote.

[TheTide]

Brady's speaking style is akin to that of Ken Clarke. Not the most important matter today but hey.

[TheTide]

Johnson says that the media's obsession with Partygate will end if he wins the ballot. Regardless of your views on him and Partygate, that seems, what's the technical term, bullsh**t.

[Cassius]

I think there’s a good chance that he loses ‘by accident’ a la Heath in 1975.

[TheTide]

I think there’s a good chance that he loses ‘by accident’ a la Heath in 1975.

The second ballot in that is mostly forgotten, but it had some interesting candidates and Thatcher didn't win in a walkover.

[TheTide]

Jeremy Hunt has declared against Johnson.

[Torrain]

Here we go…
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1533748389891940352

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Here we go…
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1533748389891940352

Perhaps a thread title change is in order, and a new thread about the conservative leadership contest ?.

Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace have come out in support of the Pm, are Cabinet ministers forbidden from voting against the PM ?

Also here's the "rebuttal" by pro boris-mps to the earlier anti-boris tory mp briefing.

[YL]

Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace have come out in support of the Pm, are Cabinet ministers forbidden from voting against the PM ?

It's a secret ballot.  Possibly not everyone who has said they're supporting Johnson actually will...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace have come out in support of the Pm, are Cabinet ministers forbidden from voting against the PM ?

It's a secret ballot.  Possibly not everyone who has said they're supporting Johnson actually will...

ok, hmm seems Hunt so far is pretty alone is openly opposing Boris. Sajid David is still backing Boris and so are most other possible replacments.

[Pericles]

Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace have come out in support of the Pm, are Cabinet ministers forbidden from voting against the PM ?

It's a secret ballot.  Possibly not everyone who has said they're supporting Johnson actually will...

ok, hmm seems Hunt so far is pretty alone is openly opposing Boris. Sajid David is still backing Boris and so are most other possible replacments.

Hunt is not in the cabinet, he was actually fired by Boris in 2019. He has every reason to get revenge now, along with it of course being the right thing to do.

[Torrain]

Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace have come out in support of the Pm, are Cabinet ministers forbidden from voting against the PM ?

If a minister has lost confidence in the government, or their PM, they’d be compelled to resign from their ministerial post. If Johnson survives, they’d be out of the cabinet before the morning.

Members can vote against their leader, but ministers are bound by collective responsibility to support the government, and the leader.

In a private ballot though, all bets are off…

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I wonder if there's some databse with a link to every conservative MP's twitter account, maybe make a spreadsheet to see who all have expressed support/oppostion or no comment with regards to the vote.

[Torrain]

Big news - the PM’s anti-corruption czar, a sitting MP has resigned.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnPenroseNews/status/1533753928483061760

[Torrain]

Edit - Penrose hasn’t just resigned, he timed it so he could talk to Sky News within 5 minutes of his resignation. Now sticking the knife into Johnson on the airwaves - has confirmed he will vote to remove Johnson.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

quick browing of /r/tories, seems like a lot of members are angry at the boris but seem to think the issue is "Immigration" an issue noticeable for having almost dissapred from the public counciousness according to polls. They also seem to think Boris has focused to much on winning Guardian readers which seems to be pretty funny suggestion.