UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Pericles]

Most voters arguably care most about immigration rather than goods rules.

Indeed, this is why I think Theresa May could have proposed a softer Brexit and still been faithful to the referendum result. While freedom of movement and therefore single market membership had to end, the UK should have remained in the customs union and most working class voters in the North don't care about pursuing free trade deals with the US. However May put short term political expediency ahead of the national interest. This is one of the many tragedies of the brexit saga, she should have reached out in 2017 and when she finally did in 2019 out of desperation (and even then her efforts may not have been serious) the debate had polarized too much and compromise was impossible.

[Pericles]

Bad move the independence vote is for the SNP regardless while English voters will react badly to Labour' position here (and even if Labour gains votes in Scotland it is not worth losing votes in marginals against the Tories in England).

[Pericles]

The UK should never under any circumstance rejoin the EU. Even if they elect a government that wants to, any sane European country must veto that request. If there's one thing we've learned from this debacle, it's that De Gaulle was right.

Now, I sincerely hope that y'all will eventually be able to work your way back into a Norway-style arrangement  in a way that doesn't alienate large swathes of the country. That would be the best outcome for everyone involved. But given the choices BoJo has made so far, the next few years will be rough.

(And Scotland of course is very welcome as soon as it leaves the sinking ship.)

Norway is a worse outcome than membership because Britain would just be a rule-taker in that scenario. They would have to pay into the EU budget and abide by EU regulations without having any say in them. Norway's option is more applicable to Norway than Britain because fishing is a much bigger issue and so Norway gets to stay out of the Common Fisheries Policy. Norway is the opposite of taking back control. EU membership is the best deal because Britain gets the benefits of membership and a role in setting them. This is probably off the table for 20 years or if polls start showing consistently 60% + support for rejoining (but even then, will Britain be able to get the same very generous terms from the EU? Probably not). A soft Brexit and in the long-term rejoining the customs union is definitely a good idea. Sadly, with this government and their idiotic promise to negotiate a full free trade deal in less than a year, it's going to probably be a pretty barebones deal that goes hard on the sovereignty in the sovereignty vs market access trade off, the British economy will suffer significantly as a result and trade deals with the US won't compensate (and could make things worse, yes the NHS is under threat).

[Pericles]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51709639

'Raging egotists' refusal to promptly resign is going to leave the new Leader of the Opposition with less time than it takes to get really good results from teeth whitening strips to establish him/herself before a major set of local elections'

Discuss

If anything that means the local elections could come in the new leader's honeymoon period but before that honeymoon wears off. It is a bit weird that Corbyn is still Leader but doesn't seem unprecedented.

[Pericles]

Aren't 25 point bumps the standard reaction to the coronavirus crisis in most countries? It is of course a big bump, but it's not that surprising. Trump's 2 point bump is the odd one out, and I'd think that's because Trump's response has been the worst and it's like he's doing everything possible not to be a strong, reassuring leader to rally the nation through the crisis.

[Pericles]

If Boris does come back from this (and ftr I hope he does), I wonder if this experience will change his personality and whether in turn that could alter his decision-making in the years ahead?

[Pericles]

Three new polls tonight, all of which show a Tory lead in the region of 2/3 points. The tide has clearly shifted from a few weeks ago - will it shift any further?

I noticed this earlier as well. Is this just Cummings plus some new leader goodwill for Starmer, or is there something more going on? Either way, it would be funny if in a years time we are in another Blare situation where Labour is well ahead in the polls, but can't capitalize on those numbers for a several years.

That would be an absolute monster swing if it occurred in an election result. Even the swing the Tories received in 2010 against Labour wouldn't be enough for Labour to win the popular vote. On a uniform swing too even a Blair level swing might not be enough for a Labour majority. However if Labour does get such a large swing it would probably be larger in some target seats, though how exactly such a swing would end up playing out is pretty unclear at this early stage.

[Pericles]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/28/covid-19-risk-of-death-in-uk-care-homes-13-times-higher-than-in-germany

Apparently 5.3% of care home residents may have died of coronavirus (so far). Yikes. The government has really failed abysmally here.

[Pericles]

Is Delyn a Red Wall seat? That would be a very interesting by-election. Given the current polls and how by-elections go it would probably be a Labour gain, though it depends when it is held.

[Pericles]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/26/49-of-voters-believe-kremlin-interfered-in-brexit-referendum-russia-report

This poll seems interesting. However, I was under the impression that the vote that Russia had actually been officially charged with interfering in was the 2019 election, on behalf of Labour. Is there serious evidence that Corbyn got his leaked NHS dossiers from Russian hackers?  In any case, while serious the problem doesn't seem quite as bad as the US because it didn't have much impact on the final outcome (though the UK is just luckier in this respect, and if action is taken there may be a close vote that is swung by foreign interference).

[Pericles]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/01/pubs-england-close-control-coronavirus-adviser-graham-medley

Maybe they should have thought of this before opening pubs in the first place? What an incompetent government.

[Pericles]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/19/utter-rubbish-theresa-may-incredulous-at-michael-goves-brexit-claims

Damn, I wish Theresa May was negotiating the future relationship with the EU rather than these incompetent idiots.

[Pericles]

Seems like Starmer is the real deal, he’s not screwing around. If he takes Labour back in a more Blairist direction, I might root for them again.

He does seem like a credible leader, I prefer him to Corbyn for sure. But hopefully his policies aren't like the 2000s, but he can take a lot of the good stuff from the 2017 manifesto and be a more credible messenger for it.

[Pericles]

It's long past time for this, but it's good news. Hopefully this is accurate and the situation can get under control, stay safe England.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/save-christmas-with-covid-lockdown-in-england-experts-say

[Pericles]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/27/boris-johnson-defends-covid-tier-system-england-tory-backlash-grows

I hope I'm wrong, but if one in 80 people really have Covid right now in the UK and the daily death toll is in the mid hundreds, perhaps it's too early to relax restrictions? Hopefully they aren't just doing it because they set themselves a deadline of 2 December and don't want to lose face. Still, the tier restrictions seem pretty strict so maybe it can stop a third wave. Though is hundreds of daily deaths and a high stable level of cases really an ok outcome?

[Pericles]

I don't see how Labour can credibly support a Brexit deal after having abstained on the Covid tiers. It's the same basic "vote for the lesser evil to avoid disaster?" choice. Indeed, their objections about insufficient financial support with the tiers are a lot more minor than what they'd object to in a Brexit deal. Boris is obviously trying to goad Starmer into making a big mistake by voting for the Brexit deal with his 'General Indecision' taunts. Voting yes would needlessly divide Labour and would make it harder for them to then exploit dissatisfaction with the outcome of Brexit (this might be relatively minor since people will know that Labour opposed Brexit either way but still), while abstaining to avoid no deal is a sensible compromise imo.

[Pericles]

Random question but why does Boris Johnson get seen in high vis vests so much? Is he trying to make a subconscious point about linking himself with construction and economic growth?

[Pericles]

What a relief. Maybe it was inevitable since no deal would have been so irrational for both sides (particularly the UK), and Boris was just really squeezing it out as much as absolutely possible for the political theatrics.

[Pericles]

I wonder how much the 'European question' is actually resolved. Clearly the public and politicians are very tired of banging on about Brexit. The deal is less polarizing than no deal. And the 2019 election result will make Labour much more cautious about reopening the Brexit debate, let alone supporting rejoining the EU. Starmer's strategy is clearly that he wants to ignore Brexit as much as possible and talk about other issues, so he can win back those socially conservative Red Wall voters. However, the Brexit referendum was narrowly decided, and so many people thinking Brexit was the wrong decision does not bode well for it being a settled issue (48% wrong to 38% right according to the latest polling). Some of this polling could just be based on fear of no deal, it's unclear whether Brexit getting done now will make people think it's not as bad as they were warned (even if it's pretty bad) or if it's even worse and a big mistake. This is a very hard Brexit, Starmer seems to have said he will renegotiate it if he becomes Prime Minister to forge a closer relationship. Will Starmer be able to get the balance right then and win over both sides of the divide, without a movement to rejoin the EU becoming a big thing in the next four years?

[Pericles]

Another Covid error from the government that has been largely ignored-Boris overruled Gove to put London in tier 2 after lockdown The article suggests that London was treated more leniently than similar parts of the country due to economic concerns. Tier 3 probably couldn't have stopped the variant, but it might have mitigated the damage. So this could be another example of their relaxed attitude backfiring.

[Pericles]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/06/scale-of-emergency-facing-uk-laid-bare-as-1000-die-in-24-hours
This is a tragic outcome, but given the trajectory of the pandemic it is sadly unsurprising. It seems that the UK now again has the highest death toll in Europe. I'm not sure how much difference the new national lockdown will make, given that normal lockdowns don't seem to actually get the R number of the new variant below 1 (and the restrictions a week or two ago seem like they might have had a similar effect on transmission). Maybe England's lockdown will need to become even stricter.

Also, two minor points from the article;
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Johnson’s press secretary, Allegra Stratton, insisted that the prime minister had full confidence in Williamson, saying: “It’s a huge brief and the prime minister believes the education secretary is doing it to his utmost ability.”

This is hardly a ringing endorsement of Gavin Williamson's skills lol, since his 'utmost ability' could easily be inadequate.
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The rebels included New Forest West MP Desmond Swayne, who told the prime minister the latest regulations were “pervaded with a pettifogging malice”, citing the fact that members of the same household cannot play tennis or golf together. Johnson told him: “Pettifogging, yes. Malicious, no.”

What does 'pettifogging' mean, would most MPs have even known?

[Pericles]

It does seem the UK lockdown is slightly looser than New Zealand's level 4 lockdown, though it's close to it. We didn't have takeaways under level 4, and bakeries, butchers and greengrocers could only do contactless delivery, so it was just supermarkets and dairies. Playgrounds even were closed, which I suppose could be a 'pandemic theatre' measure (if the R number of the new variant doesn't go below 1, the measures might just need to get really harsh though). I'm not sure how strict the UK's travel restrictions are. I know we couldn't go to a neighbouring suburb for walks, so had to stay within our own area (except when going to the supermarket or when doing socially distanced check ins on those within our support bubble). Maybe the UK would need to look even further though, Spain seemed to go really hard in their first lockdown. The problem with the UK government's approach is they've always been more afraid of the risks of their actions than the risks of inaction and so dithered. Just play it safe for once and take precautionary measures that might be unnecessary rather than again regretting it after tens of thousands of lives have been lost.

[Pericles]

After another record-breaking daily death toll, the total deaths in the UK may already be over 100,000. This is going by all deaths where Covid is listed on the death certificate, rather than the official measurement of deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test. It's a sad result and the government has clearly failed massively.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/13/uk-coronavirus-deaths-pass-100000

[Pericles]

I just realized what Boris did with the cycling is pretty similar to what our Health Minister was forced to resign for. Except he went 20km and it was mountain biking. Still, politicians shouldn't be bending or breaking the rules that they're setting for everyone else.

[Pericles]

Is the UK going to now pursue an Australia/NZ style approach to the borders and require hotel quarantine for all overseas arrivals? That would be a good policy I think and could keep the borders secure. Given the other potentially vaccine resistant mutations, if the UK achieves herd immunity from vaccination, it might have to keep the borders shut so it can return to normal life. It might be harder for the UK, but even big Asian countries have done a successful elimination strategy.

I do wonder whether any European countries could have pursued an elimination strategy early in the pandemic. I'm guessing it's unlikely because testing was so low that by the time they could have reasonably acted the cases would inevitably go so high that it would be too hard to go to zero. However, Victoria in Australia did have a serious outbreak and get back to zero (albeit with one of the world's longest lockdowns), applying that rate to the UK perhaps going from daily deaths in the mid 200s to 0 would be achievable. Maybe it's naturally harder with a larger population, and even limiting it to daily deaths in the mid 200s in the first wave might not have been achievable.