UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[YL]

Popcorn time...

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

[Torrain]

Popcorn time...
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

Dorries seems hell-bent on handing free material to both the Opposition, and the COVID enquiry. Not that I’m complaining.

[Torrain]

So, weird observation. The Cabinet are out in force, defending Johnson to the hilt. Even quiet, low-key members like Alister Jack and Therese Coffey. Raab and Rees-Mogg have done prime time interviews on TV, and Dorries is doing exactly what you’d expect on Twitter.

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry.

Odds are we’ll get a statement of support shortly, but still - odd that the rest of the cabinet had a statement out by 11am, and she’s still laying low.

[TheTide]

So, weird observation. The Cabinet are out in force, defending Johnson to the hilt. Even quiet, low-key members like Alister Jack and Therese Coffey. Raab and Rees-Mogg have done prime time interviews on TV, and Dorries is doing exactly what you’d expect on Twitter.

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry.

Odds are we’ll get a statement of support shortly, but still - odd that the rest of the cabinet had a statement out by 11am, and she’s still laying low.

A unity ticket with Hunt?

[Torrain]

So, weird observation. The Cabinet are out in force, defending Johnson to the hilt. Even quiet, low-key members like Alister Jack and Therese Coffey. Raab and Rees-Mogg have done prime time interviews on TV, and Dorries is doing exactly what you’d expect on Twitter.

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry.

Odds are we’ll get a statement of support shortly, but still - odd that the rest of the cabinet had a statement out by 11am, and she’s still laying low.

A unity ticket with Hunt?

Now that would be one for the history books - and possibly some dire polling. Can’t imagine Chancellor Patel would go down well - maybe she’s holding out for the Foreign Office?

Although I guess Hunt has probably offered the Great Offices of State to a number of MPs by now.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

So, weird observation. The Cabinet are out in force, defending Johnson to the hilt. Even quiet, low-key members like Alister Jack and Therese Coffey. Raab and Rees-Mogg have done prime time interviews on TV, and Dorries is doing exactly what you’d expect on Twitter.

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry.

Odds are we’ll get a statement of support shortly, but still - odd that the rest of the cabinet had a statement out by 11am, and she’s still laying low.

A unity ticket with Hunt?

Isn't Patel one of the most unpopular cabinet members ?

[Zinneke]

So, weird observation. The Cabinet are out in force, defending Johnson to the hilt. Even quiet, low-key members like Alister Jack and Therese Coffey. Raab and Rees-Mogg have done prime time interviews on TV, and Dorries is doing exactly what you’d expect on Twitter.

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry.

Odds are we’ll get a statement of support shortly, but still - odd that the rest of the cabinet had a statement out by 11am, and she’s still laying low.

Waiting for her handlers orders

[Torrain]

Isn't Patel one of the most unpopular cabinet members ?

The public don’t like Patel - but she polls well with members of the party membership, especially on the right. Hunt is a known Cameroon, and seem as broadly moderate. If he brought Patel into the fold, he’d shore up his support with a wing of the party that inherently distrust him.

[CumbrianLefty]

Popcorn time...

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

Hunt claiming recently he never supported lockdowns did seem like brazenly insincere and transparent pandering even by usual political standards - I'm not surprised something like this has emerged.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533781205224771585?s=20&t=7siGtk_gN...

There are also about 40 more Tory MPs now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Happily Jubilee everyone!

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson apparently playing the "I will call an election if you vote against me" card with wavering MPs.

Brilliant plan, can't see how it could possibly go wrong at all

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Late to the party, but Johnson needs, what? 180-181 Conservative votes to save him? (Assuming everybody else votes the same way).  

[Oryxslayer]

Late to the party, but Johnson needs, what? 180-181 Conservative votes to save him? (Assuming everybody else votes the same way).  

Yes. There is a ~100 publicly committed Retain voters floating around right now, though obviously some of them are people who we know are saying one thing publicly and will likely do another on a secret ballot. So we don't know if he meets that threshold until its announced.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Johnson apparently playing the "I will call an election if you vote against me" card with wavering MPs.

Brilliant plan, can't see how it could possibly go wrong at all

Breaches the Lascelles Principles as well lmao.

[CumbrianLefty]

Late to the party, but Johnson needs, what? 180-181 Conservative votes to save him? (Assuming everybody else votes the same way).  

Mathematically, yes.

I would say he needs well over 200, nearer 250, to survive any length of time though.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How screwed would labour and the lib Dems be with regards to candidate selection and funding an snap election campaign. If one is called ?

[CumbrianLefty]

Quite a few candidates for key seats already selected, so maybe not as much as some Tories hope.

[Benjamin Frank]

Johnson apparently playing the "I will call an election if you vote against me" card with wavering MPs.

Brilliant plan, can't see how it could possibly go wrong at all

The Jason Kenney of the U.K.

[Estrella]

Nadine, this is not America.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How screwed would labour and the lib Dems be with regards to candidate selection and funding an snap election campaign. If one is called ?

They'd be fine - some candidate selection has already been going on and emergency procedures exist (and were used at the last two GEs). As for funding, well, the eternal tensions between Labour and the unions over funding are largely about the Party's routine operating costs: a General Election is a different game. It would maybe have been an issue for the LibDems prior to the Coalition, but now that they're back to running paper candidates in most of the country they don't need as much cash and can concentrate resources on a few score constituencies.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How screwed would labour and the lib Dems be with regards to candidate selection and funding an snap election campaign. If one is called ?

They'd be fine - some candidate selection has already been going on and emergency procedures exist (and were used at the last two GEs). As for funding, well, the eternal tensions between Labour and the unions over funding are largely about the Party's routine operating costs: a General Election is a different game. It would maybe have been an issue for the LibDems prior to the Coalition, but now that they're back to running paper candidates in most of the country they don't need as much cash and can concentrate resources on a few score constituencies.

Didn't the emergency procedures lead to a lot of terrible people being selected and elected ? That's my worry, you'd have a lot of hastily picked canidates dragged in the labour majority.

[Torrain]

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry. 

Just to follow up from this - Patel released a statement through a spokesman, who said that “ The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening”.

Still odd to have no word from Patel herself, but hey, I guess that’s the probably as close as we’re going to get.

Also - Patel is only the 122nd MP to come out in favour of Johnson today, well short of the 180 Johnson needs to survive. For contrast, May had the public support of well over 50% of MPs by this point in the day. Johnson has just passed 34%. That doesn’t mean he’s going to lose (consensus still seems to be a win with a slim-to-moderate margin) but its not exactly an encouraging sign for him.

[brucejoel99]

Well, since we've got a few hours to kill here, I'd like to preemptively motion for OSR to change the thread name to "UK General Discussion: Not a good finish, Boris" if BoJo does indeed end up losing the VoNC in a few hours' time.

[Cassius]

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry. 

Just to follow up from this - Patel released a statement through a spokesman, who said that “ The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening”.

Still odd to have no word from Patel herself, but hey, I guess that’s the probably as close as we’re going to get.

Also - Patel is only the 122nd MP to come out in favour of Johnson today, well short of the 180 Johnson needs to survive. For contrast, May had the public support of well over 50% of MPs by this point in the day. Johnson has just passed 34%. That doesn’t mean he’s going to lose (consensus still seems to be a win with a slim-to-moderate margin) but its not exactly an encouraging sign for him.

I mean, in 2018 there were reasonable reasons to support keeping May (if you were a Remainer/Reluctant Leaver who feared a Brexiteer takeover; concerns about changing horses mid-negotiations etc) - I can't think of a single reason to keep Boris Johnson, unless you're a minister whose career is irrevocably bound up with his remaining in office. Apart from the obvious (Dorries), I can't think of too many of those.