Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaichind]

Wow.  It seems Netanyahu did it.  Amazing how he played this if exit polls are correct.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This makes no sense. KL are stagnant at the September result, and the left reduced to soley Labour-Gesher results? Where are the other 5 seats?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

Excellent economy, better international relations than ever, less of a security threat by neighbors and militant Palestinians than perhaps ever. I'd have voted Likud in this one.

I mean sure, but you're saying this as a natural voter for the right, quite a hardcore one.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Anyway, I'm done. I'm done defending Israel in this forum and generally. We're a deeply corrupt country and I have no business in this moral monstrosity. Bye.

[Walmart_shopper]

This makes no sense. KL are stagnant at the September result, and the left reduced to soley Labour-Gesher results? Where are the other 5 seats?

Sitting a 2 room 7500 nis apartment on Pinkas in North Tel Aviv. Israeli liberals are now too woke to vote. But when Benny Gantz runs on a olatform of being Bibi but less corrupt it's hard to blame them.

[jaymichaud]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

Excellent economy, better international relations than ever, less of a security threat by neighbors and militant Palestinians than perhaps ever. I'd have voted Likud in this one.

Do you expect those things to last when they're proposing very large changes with very big/serious results?

[Walmart_shopper]

Anyway, I'm done. I'm done defending Israel in this forum and generally. We're a deeply corrupt country and I have no business in this moral monstrosity. Bye.

I am giving furtive glances to my US passport right now. It's tempting.

[jaymichaud]

Lol Ben Gvir Chad

Must have denied Yamina a couple seats and got in the way of their 61

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyway, I'm done. I'm done defending Israel in this forum and generally. We're a deeply corrupt country and I have no business in this moral monstrosity. Bye.

One state solution looking better?

[Walmart_shopper]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

Excellent economy, better international relations than ever, less of a security threat by neighbors and militant Palestinians than perhaps ever. I'd have voted Likud in this one.

Do you expect those things to last when they're proposing very large changes with very big/serious results?

People think that Israel can create an apartheid state run on the backs of unemployed Haredim who have a 5th grade level education but יהיה בסדר. Balkanization is perhaps the BEST outcome for Israel at this point because anything worse would be Lebanon or Iran or at best Turkey.

[DavidB.]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

Excellent economy, better international relations than ever, less of a security threat by neighbors and militant Palestinians than perhaps ever. I'd have voted Likud in this one.

I mean sure, but you're saying this as a natural voter for the right, quite a hardcore one.

Okay, but the economy, the good national security situation and Israel's improving international standing are still reasons for why more than a fourth of Israelis would still vote for Likud - which was what Mileslunn asked - even apart from my personal preferences.

Didn't intend to post on Atlas anymore, but just wanted to clarify, as I didn't want the impression that Likud solely received a big part of the vote because of some anti-Arab scare or "irrational voters" to go unchallenged.

[Walmart_shopper]

Anyway, I'm done. I'm done defending Israel in this forum and generally. We're a deeply corrupt country and I have no business in this moral monstrosity. Bye.

One state solution looking better?

As someone who is actually a part of the Arab sector in Israel, I have to say that the only real losers in all of this are Israeli Jews. Its your Zionism you're ruining. Not ours. It's your Jewish state you're ruining, and as you tell us over and over and over it's not ours. Israeli Arabs have become an economic and political power in spite of decades of expulsion, discrimination, and systemic barriers. They just keep on growing, breeding, earning money, building a state. You think snowflakey scooter-riders in Tel Aviv are going to he able to handle the storm that is coming soon?

But the truth is that I believe in a state for all of us, even atavistic right wing bigots. Snd so if Israeli Jews are losing, then we are all losing.  Arab and Jewish fortunes must no longer be held in opposition, as separate. It's that division that Bibi and his voters use to win elections, but they do so at their own peril because if Jews and Arabs are forced to oppose each other the "winner" is not obvious.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

Excellent economy, better international relations than ever, less of a security threat by neighbors and militant Palestinians than perhaps ever. I'd have voted Likud in this one.

I mean sure, but you're saying this as a natural voter for the right, quite a hardcore one.

Okay, but the economy, the good national security situation and Israel's improving international standing are still reasons for why more than a fourth of Israelis would still vote for Likud - which was what Mileslunn asked - even apart from my personal preferences.

Didn't intend to post on Atlas anymore, but just wanted to clarify, as I didn't want the impression that Likud solely received a big part of the vote because of some anti-Arab scare or "irrational voters" to go unchallenged.

Sure, some of Bibi's foreign policy successes have been genuinely impressive, although as an American leftist I obviously hate the fact that he constantly runs interference and carries water for Trump and the Republican Party as a key part of his policy towards the Western powers. As for the economy, though, a "good economy" doesn't explain as much as it used to because in a post-truth society people's perceptions of how good the economy is depend a lot on their preconceptions about who's in power--witness THE TRUMP RECOVERY rhetoric on the American right vs. rhetoric about fragile/illusory prosperity where lots of people are still getting screwed on the American left.

[Oryxslayer]

https://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/ElectionMap2020/

Ynet map up.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, Channel 11 is just repeating what we are all waiting on right now via interviews. If Bibi+ or Gantz+ gets an extra mandate, then the situation becomes either what we had after round 2 where Lieberman decides the king, or Bibi wins. If it stays at 60-60, Leib either chooses to return to Bibi or someone gets bribed to the other side. 60-60 is the worst situation right now.

[jaymichaud]

Anyway, Channel 11 is just repeating what we are all waiting on right now via interviews. If Bibi+ or Gantz+ gets an extra mandate, then the situation becomes what we had after round 2 where Lieberman decides the king. If it stays at 60-60, Leib either chooses to return to Bibi or someone gets bribed to the other side. 60-60 is the worst situation right now.

Not with UTJ and Shas in the coalition. .

[Walmart_shopper]

Anyway, Channel 11 is just repeating what we are all waiting on right now via interviews. If Bibi+ or Gantz+ gets an extra mandate, then the situation becomes what we had after round 2 where Lieberman decides the king. If it stays at 60-60, Leib either chooses to return to Bibi or someone gets bribed to the other side. 60-60 is the worst situation right now.

I actually don't understand why everyone is acting like Bibi and the right won. He needs 61 seats to truly win. Anything less is more chaos, deadlock, elections, etc. Obviously KL lost, but without a majority snd without Liberman Bibi still hasn't won. Right now he doesn't seem to have either, although that could change.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, Channel 11 is just repeating what we are all waiting on right now via interviews. If Bibi+ or Gantz+ gets an extra mandate, then the situation becomes what we had after round 2 where Lieberman decides the king. If it stays at 60-60, Leib either chooses to return to Bibi or someone gets bribed to the other side. 60-60 is the worst situation right now.

I actually don't understand why everyone is acting like Bibi and the right won. He needs 61 seats to truly win. Anything less is more chaos, deadlock, elections, etc. Obviously KL lost, but without a majority snd without Liberman Bibi still hasn't won. Right now he doesn't seem to have either, although that could change.

I guess the assumption is that someone individually in YB/B&W would cross the lines. However, if nobody did it in round 1 when everything was still 'normalized' then perhaps its a poor assumption.

[jaymichaud]

Anyway, Channel 11 is just repeating what we are all waiting on right now via interviews. If Bibi+ or Gantz+ gets an extra mandate, then the situation becomes what we had after round 2 where Lieberman decides the king. If it stays at 60-60, Leib either chooses to return to Bibi or someone gets bribed to the other side. 60-60 is the worst situation right now.

I actually don't understand why everyone is acting like Bibi and the right won. He needs 61 seats to truly win. Anything less is more chaos, deadlock, elections, etc. Obviously KL lost, but without a majority snd without Liberman Bibi still hasn't won. Right now he doesn't seem to have either, although that could change.

Oh, I agree. Even in September the headlines were “Deadlock continues” as opposed to “Gantz wins”.

[Walmart_shopper]

Does anyone know when results are expected to start coming in or when the exit polls will he updated?

[cp]

Anyway, Channel 11 is just repeating what we are all waiting on right now via interviews. If Bibi+ or Gantz+ gets an extra mandate, then the situation becomes what we had after round 2 where Lieberman decides the king. If it stays at 60-60, Leib either chooses to return to Bibi or someone gets bribed to the other side. 60-60 is the worst situation right now.

I actually don't understand why everyone is acting like Bibi and the right won. He needs 61 seats to truly win. Anything less is more chaos, deadlock, elections, etc. Obviously KL lost, but without a majority snd without Liberman Bibi still hasn't won. Right now he doesn't seem to have either, although that could change.

Oh, I agree. Even in September the headlines were “Deadlock continues” as opposed to “Gantz wins”.

At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy nut, there is a tendency among mainstream media outlets to defer to the spin of more conservative voices generally, especially if they're the incumbent in a closely fought election. One potential reason for this (indeed, one reason such voices are in power in the first place) is the cohesion and calibration of said conservative voices' organizing institutions. Compared to opposition/non-reactionary voices, they are faster and more effective at aligning to a single, highyl self-serving, semi-plausible interpretation of events.

[jaymichaud]

Is there anything to suggest the usual suspects have been tampering with the Exit Polls? Sh*t, everything about their campaign has been fraudulent.

[Silent Hunter]

Bibi still has an indictment to deal with, but that could take months. Years with an appeals process.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I actually don't understand why everyone is acting like Bibi and the right won. He needs 61 seats to truly win. Anything less is more chaos, deadlock, elections, etc. Obviously KL lost, but without a majority snd without Liberman Bibi still hasn't won. Right now he doesn't seem to have either, although that could change.

Provided that the exit polls are correct, then it is an inversion of the last election: the opposition has lost, but the government has not won, whereas then the government lost but the opposition did not win.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there anything to suggest the usual suspects have been tampering with the Exit Polls? Sh*t, everything about their campaign has been fraudulent.

What would that even accomplish? The vote counters/poll workers are beyond their preview and once the votes come in such a conspiracy would be revealed. It was the last two times they seriously tried to influence this part of the election with the video cameras in arab stations, and that failed.