Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Silent Hunter]

Why is the vote count so slow in Israel? - is it done at polling stations or are ballot boxes moved around to counting centres?

Thanks!

Hand count paper ballots. Israel, despite being known as the startup nation, is afraid of electric voting.

They're also world leaders in hacking, so they understand the dangers.

[Double Carpet]

At the polling stations? Most paper ballot countries would be further ahead by now. Thanks for the outstanding maps!

[Intell]

Why is the vote count so slow in Israel? - is it done at polling stations or are ballot boxes moved around to counting centres?

Thanks!

Hand count paper ballots. Israel, despite being known as the startup nation, is afraid of electric voting.

Smart people Isreal.

[Oryxslayer]

Latest votes.

[Kingpoleon]

Smart people Isreal.

Tom Scott, a genius wit with a lovely British accent, did a great YouTube video on the problems with electronic voting, and I, for one, have never been fully convinced as to the necessity of it.

[Oryxslayer]

Jerusalem just dropped a ton at once, and now sites at 80% of election 2, compared to the nations 30%. You can tell because UTJ passed Shas. Jerusalem's only competitor when it comes to size is Tel-Aviv, who sits under 20% of election twos votes for comparison. So, here's the Bibi+ counting bias climaxing, and will likely start ticking down now.

[DL]

So the projection continues to have the Likud bloc at 58 seats...

[Oryxslayer]

So the projection continues to have the Likud bloc at 58 seats...

Mind you, every media outlet has it at 59. I averaged the three channels together and you get...Bibi+ with 58. This is because each channel has individual outliers from the other two.

Anyway, here's where the votes have came from so far after the Jerusalem bomb:

[Walmart_shopper]

So the projection continues to have the Likud bloc at 58 seats...

It's down to 58 now? Yikes. It seems the media embarasses itself yet again in its ebullience for Bibi.

[mileslunn]

So the projection continues to have the Likud bloc at 58 seats...

It's down to 58 now? Yikes. It seems the media embarasses itself yet again in its ebullience for Bibi.

Exit polls always have a margin of error so if they said Bibi's coalition at 65 and fell short then miss but at 60 it can go either way.  No different than Irish exit poll showing perfect three way tie, but Sinn Fein was two points in front of Fianna Fail and Fine Gail four points behind.  Or 2015 UK election were exit polls projected Tories would fall short of a majority, but they narrowly won one.  Exit polls are just an approximation not a perfect indicator.  It's why in US elections they don't call states unless exit polls show a sizeable lead.

[DL]

Presumably the exit poll projections are being updated as real results come in so the projections at this stage should be far more reliable than they were right when the polls closed

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Who votes Shas and who votes UTJ?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Who votes Shas and who votes UTJ?

Shas is Sephardi/Mizrahi (and used to be a somewhat bigger tent than just the Haredi members of those groups, whereas UTJ did not), UTJ is Ashkenazi.

[Hnv1]

I did warn you lot that Likud are planning a massive ground game campaign...

I suspect it will be 60 seats in the end as the JL and YB have no “leftover agreements”

[Walmart_shopper]

With 2/3 of the vote in it's Likud 35 to KL 32. The Joint List has 18 seats. And it's 58-55 for the religious right.

There is literally no way Bibi gets a government out of that. If it actually is that close between the blocs a Gantz-led minority becomes somewhat less unrealistic.

But, alas, I suapect new elections would be most likely out of all of the possibilities.

[Hnv1]

Looking through some of the results, it seems the JL did gain among Jewish voters but not so much. Maybe one Jewish seat, so it’s mainly Arab turnout behind the surge

[Walmart_shopper]

With 2/3 of the vote in it's Likud 35 to KL 32. The Joint List has 18 seats. And it's 58-55 for the religious right.

There is literally no way Bibi gets a government out of that. If it actually is that close between the blocs a Gantz-led minority becomes somewhat less unrealistic.

But, alas, I suapect new elections would be most likely out of all of the possibilities.

It was Haifa that just got counted, apparently. It also seems that hnv dropped tens of thousands  of Joint List slips in the ballot box.

[Boobs]

Despite being the merger of three parties, Avoda-Gesher-Meretz has the shortest official name of the main parties.

It also seems that hnv dropped tens of thousands  of Joint List slips in the ballot box.

Saviour of democracy.

[Walmart_shopper]

Does anyone know what is still out after the Haifa vote dump? I've read that there is still a lot left in Tel Aviv, but the Ynet map hasn't updated so I can't figure it out.

[Walmart_shopper]

It looks Tel Aviv is almost all in. So I have no idea what is still out right now.

[jaymichaud]

With 2/3 of the vote in it's Likud 35 to KL 32. The Joint List has 18 seats. And it's 58-55 for the religious right.

There is literally no way Bibi gets a government out of that. If it actually is that close between the blocs a Gantz-led minority becomes somewhat less unrealistic.

But, alas, I suapect new elections would be most likely out of all of the possibilities.

If The Joint List gets 18 then that would be revolutionary.

[Walmart_shopper]

73 percent in. Likud leads KL 35 to 32. Joint List at 17. Right bloc now leads 58 to 56.

Honestly, this is looking so much better than last night. But I don't know what is left to count, so who knows. The double envelopes are usually good for KL, Likud, and the Joint List, and obviously those will he last to get counted.

[Walmart_shopper]

Labor-Meretz is only a half a percentage point away from stealing a seat from UTJ. Unless Ashdod/Ashkelon are still out, where there is a atronger Haredi vote, I actually think Labor-Meretz might pull it off.

[Walmart_shopper]

So Ashkelon/Ashdod are also mostly in.

[mileslunn]

How much of Tel Aviv is still outstanding?  If it is done then probably good news for Bibi, if not could mean BW has a chance.