Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[danny]

https://twitter.com/emilykschrader/status/1234551059273699328

Here's the 'leaked' numbers supposedly. That said there are two big asterisks here. First - there are still voters who will be voting tonight, and last time there was a late surge. Second - I'm not even sure if this is one of the main prognosticators and it of course could still be pulled straight out of someones ass.

Camil Fuchs runs the exit poll for channel 13, but I don't know who Emily Schrader is and this could easily be made numbers.

[Walmart_shopper]

Leaked exit polls show big lead to likud but majority

No majority, right?

It sounds like Bibi is stuck at 59 right now. There will he a majority to pass a law making it impossible for Bibi to form a government. Liberman will then support Likud and a unity government can be formed.

Unless the exits are off and Bibi gets 60 seays.

[Walmart_shopper]

Bernie, save us.

[Walmart_shopper]

It's almost as though chasing Bibi around the world and aping his political reflexes by anathemizing Arab voters and then arguing how different you are from Bibi is not actually a very good campaign strategy. If somehow we go to a fourth election I hope someone in the waste of political space that is Blur and White figures that out.

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 11 has Bibi at 60.

[Oryxslayer]

Kan 11 has JL on 15, Lab on 6 as shockers.  Blocks 54-60 Bibi.

[Estrella]

Okay, so what was the point of past year?

[jaymichaud]

So still no majority.

[mileslunn]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

AAAH ARABS

[Walmart_shopper]

Bibi with 60 in all three exit polls. He leads 37 to 32 in two of them.

[jaymichaud]

60-60... lmfao meme country

[danny]

A seat away from 61 means means we have to wait for the actual results to see there is a majority for the right wing coalition.

[Dereich]

How does the post-exit poll vote tend to go? Is there a particular direction that you'd expect the adjustments to move the seat count?

[Walmart_shopper]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

Israel is arguably the most racist country in the world. Show an Israel Jew an Arab and it magically turns into a right wing vote.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RaoulWootliff/status/1234570192526639104

Bibi's block on 60. If they lose or gain a mandate then that could be everything.

[DL]

What happens if its a 60-60 deadlock? Does there have to be a 61 vote majority to confirm a PM or what happens in a tie scenario?

[Walmart_shopper]

How does the post-exit poll vote tend to go? Is there a particular direction that you'd expect the adjustments to move the seat count?

In september the results grew increasingly good for the left as the night went on. The Arab vote was bigger than the exits captured. My hunch is that the right is more likely to get 59 than 61.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

AAAH ARABS

More detailed answer: Bibi insists, and might genuinely believe, that he is literally the only person in Israel, up to and including the three former IDF Chiefs of Staff in the KL leadership, who can be trusted to keep the country physically safe as Prime Minister, and he says this often enough and loudly enough that other people believe it too.

[jaymichaud]

36 seats.... lmfao how can people be so stupid

You've dug yourselves in a deep one Likudniks

[Walmart_shopper]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

AAAH ARABS

More detailed answer: Bibi insists, and might genuinely believe, that he is literally the only person in Israel, up to and including the three former IDF Chiefs of Staff in the KL leadership, who can be trusted to keep the country physically safe as Prime Minister, and he says this often enough and loudly enough that other people believe it too.

No, it's literally just Aah Arabs. People believe that the left will either give land to Arabs, give political power to Arabs, or give more rights to Arabs (all true, by the way). In the obscene imagining of most Israeli Jews, that's literally the worst thing that could happen to the country.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/emilykschrader/status/1234551059273699328

https://twitter.com/RaoulWootliff/status/1234570192526639104

Bibi's block on 60. If they lose or gain a mandate then that could be everything.

[/tweet]

Comparing these two potentially gives insight into what happened in the last hour, and whose on the edge. Labour+ went down, Yamina went up, and the Arabs are on the edge of 15 and UTJ on the edge of 7. Likud/B&W numbers seem to have remained stable.

[Walmart_shopper]

36 seats.... lmfao how can people be so stupid

You've dug yourselves in a deep one Likudniks

It's gonna be lit when Bagatz rules that Bibi can't form a government while on trial and then Bibi forms one anyway.

[DavidB.]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

Excellent economy, better international relations than ever, less of a security threat by neighbors and militant Palestinians than perhaps ever. I'd have voted Likud in this one.

[Walmart_shopper]

I owe you lunch when you are in Bantustan Jerusalem, hnv. You were right about the joke that is Labor-Meretz.