2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1446538402510348290

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1446538402510348290

LOL good job Virginia dems, ceding this unnecessarily to the courts.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1446538402510348290

"Working as intended"

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats are so bad at what they do.  Pretty much every elected Democrat should resign and the party should start from scratch.  It's no wonder that a party 70% of the population agrees with on almost all issues is out of power half the time.

[lfromnj]

I do think Democrats are over worried about the supreme court here.

[Mr.Phips]

I do think Democrats are over worried about the supreme court here.

I could definitely see the court making slightly favorable decisions for Republicans when drawing VA-02 and VA-07.  How those seats are going to be drawn is where the action is.

[lfromnj]

I do think Democrats are over worried about the supreme court here.

I could definitely see the court making slightly favorable decisions for Republicans when drawing VA-02 and VA-07.  How those seats are going to be drawn is where the action is.

Yeah Hanover would definitely be a very good COI decision + R favoring. I redrew the current map to give VA01 the rurals in the NW while giving VA07 Hanover and Spanberger would have lost in 2018 and 2020 narrowly by my estimate. I don't know why the Federal courts did that as most Federal court maps usually make fairly logical decisions but this one made no sense. I don't think it was partisan bias as the district was still like Romney +13.

However do note this was only for legislative districts and congressional districts are still coming up. A lot of the bigger arguments around legislative seem to be based on majority black districts which won't come up for congressional as strong.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1446538402510348290

LOL good job Virginia dems, ceding this unnecessarily to the courts.

If the courts do draw an R favored map, I hope they draw Dick Saslaw into an R seat, he deserves it, since his stupidity is what allowed this in the first place, and getting rid of him would allow Virginia Dems to get an actually decent leader.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1446538402510348290

LOL good job Virginia dems, ceding this unnecessarily to the courts.

If the courts do draw an R favored map, I hope they draw Dick Saslaw into an R seat, he deserves it, since his stupidity is what allowed this in the first place, and getting rid of him would allow Virginia Dems to get an actually decent leader.

You do realize he represents Fall Church/Alexandria/Arlington?

[S019]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1446538402510348290

LOL good job Virginia dems, ceding this unnecessarily to the courts.

If the courts do draw an R favored map, I hope they draw Dick Saslaw into an R seat, he deserves it, since his stupidity is what allowed this in the first place, and getting rid of him would allow Virginia Dems to get an actually decent leader.

You do realize he represents Fall Church/Alexandria/Arlington?

Well yes, I know he's from Fairfax, and it won't happen, but my point is that he deserves it, he needs to go somehow and I'd vote for a Republican over him, at this point, just to get rid of.

[lfromnj]

Here is the change for VA07 and VA01. VA01 narrowly becomes a Kaine district in this map but VA07 voted for Kaine by 3.6 instead of 5.7 points. Spanberger won by 1.8 and 1.9 so a 2.1 rightward shift probably makes her lose in both years.

Note this isn't for 2022 due to different population. This is just really what the court probably should have done without touching any other districts as they did restrict themselves to only touching 5 districts instead of a full redraw. Maybe this was too much of a change for VA07 of old? Not sure though.

[Non Swing Voter]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

[S019]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Not all Dems, it was just ConservaDem idiots in the State Senate ofc led by none other than....Dick Saslaw

[lfromnj]

IIRC the VA state senate was close to unanimous. VA state house was when Democrats had cold feet and nearly backed out.

[If my soul was made of stone]

This configuration screws over Spanberger to make McEachin's district actually majority-minority, with the 1st becoming more competitive as a result:

[Devils30]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

[Non Swing Voter]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

[Devils30]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

It's what happens when you have a whole generation of aspiring Democratic leaders growing up through social justice marches instead of understanding the nuts and bolts of legislating. It's amazing how many law professors, Ivy League PhDs are complete morons when it comes to politics.

[Skill and Chance]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

No.  Rigging congressional maps is still bad, no matter where it's done.

*That includes if the state court draws an R-rigged map, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome

[Non Swing Voter]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

It's what happens when you have a whole generation of aspiring Democratic leaders growing up through social justice marches instead of understanding the nuts and bolts of legislating. It's amazing how many law professors, Ivy League PhDs are complete morons when it comes to politics.

It's very infuriating.  If Dems showed as much outrage to GOP criminality and cheating as they do to misuse of pronouns they'd win every election.

[Non Swing Voter]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

No.  Rigging congressional maps is still bad, no matter where it's done.

*That includes if the state court draws an R-rigged map, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome

OMG.  JFC.  This is exhibit A to the problem.  Dems cannot unilaterally disarm.  This is exactly what got us Donald Trump with a GOP senate and house and unchecked power.  Saying, "we're better than them" and letting them lie, cheat, and steal their way to power.

[Devils30]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

No.  Rigging congressional maps is still bad, no matter where it's done.

*That includes if the state court draws an R-rigged map, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome

OMG.  JFC.  This is exhibit A to the problem.  Dems cannot unilaterally disarm.  This is exactly what got us Donald Trump with a GOP senate and house and unchecked power.  Saying, "we're better than them" and letting them lie, cheat, and steal their way to power.

It's a moderate court, that's why I suspect they'll draw a minimal change map in the end. After Biden gets the infrastructure bills passed it's time to move to the center on cultural issues and throw AOC under the bus.

[Skill and Chance]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

No.  Rigging congressional maps is still bad, no matter where it's done.

*That includes if the state court draws an R-rigged map, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome

OMG.  JFC.  This is exhibit A to the problem.  Dems cannot unilaterally disarm.  This is exactly what got us Donald Trump with a GOP senate and house and unchecked power.  Saying, "we're better than them" and letting them lie, cheat, and steal their way to power.

It's a moderate court, that's why I suspect they'll draw a minimal change map in the end. After Biden gets the infrastructure bills passed it's time to move to the center on cultural issues and throw AOC under the bus.

Yes, I'm not expecting an unapologetic R gerrymander from the VA court. 

And while this probably isn't the right thread for it, I also can't believe how quickly Dems are falling back into the all social issues, all the time trap when there is no need.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/melleonor_/status/1447307200473583618?s=21

[Devils30]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

No.  Rigging congressional maps is still bad, no matter where it's done.

*That includes if the state court draws an R-rigged map, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome

OMG.  JFC.  This is exhibit A to the problem.  Dems cannot unilaterally disarm.  This is exactly what got us Donald Trump with a GOP senate and house and unchecked power.  Saying, "we're better than them" and letting them lie, cheat, and steal their way to power.

It's a moderate court, that's why I suspect they'll draw a minimal change map in the end. After Biden gets the infrastructure bills passed it's time to move to the center on cultural issues and throw AOC under the bus.

Yes, I'm not expecting an unapologetic R gerrymander from the VA court. 

And while this probably isn't the right thread for it, I also can't believe how quickly Dems are falling back into the all social issues, all the time trap when there is no need.

VA-1 only went Trump 51-47 and the growing parts are rapidly Dem trending Stafford and Prince William. In theory Wittman could trade some blue parts of the 1st for some red parts of the 7th.