2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Brittain33]

$263,000 is a pretty sad total for Fischbach given that she had the whole quarter to fundraise and Peterson is the most endangered Democrat in the country. Is the big Republican money waiting on the sidelines for a man to throw his hat into the ring?

[Young Conservative]

$263,000 is a pretty sad total for Fischbach given that she had the whole quarter to fundraise and Peterson is the most endangered Democrat in the country. Is the big Republican money waiting on the sidelines for a man to throw his hat into the ring?

It seems like this would be a cheap media market

[wbrocks67]

Peterson may be safe afterall...

[wbrocks67]

Mikie Sherill (NJ-11) raised $757K in 4th Q, bringing COH to $2.2 million+

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/sherrill-has-huge-fundraising-haul-amasses-2-2-million-warchest/

[Frenchrepublican]

For those who think that McSally is a bad candidate
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1217064088766943232?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

Peterson may be safe afterall...

Sure. Lol

Hughes came very close in 2018 despite spending 0. With Trump at the top of the ballot Fischbach will win provided a scandal-free campaign

[wbrocks67]

For those who think that McSally is a bad candidate
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1217064088766943232?s=20

She is. How much did Mark Kelly raise?

[wbrocks67]

Peterson may be safe afterall...

Sure. Lol

Hughes came very close in 2018 despite spending 0. With Trump at the top of the ballot Fischbach will win provided a scandal-free campaign

Not with those #s

[Frenchrepublican]

For those who think that McSally is a bad candidate
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1217064088766943232?s=20

She is. How much did Mark Kelly raise?

That’s not really the point, if you raise $ 4M dollars in a quarter you’re not a weak candidate

[Frenchrepublican]

Peterson may be safe afterall...

Sure. Lol

Hughes came very close in 2018 despite spending 0. With Trump at the top of the ballot Fischbach will win provided a scandal-free campaign

Not with those #s

You should begin to live in the real world. This district is one of the least expensive across the country, anyway dollars won’t matter a lot in MN-7 if Trump wins this district by +25 points again

[DINGO Joe]

$263,000 is a pretty sad total for Fischbach given that she had the whole quarter to fundraise and Peterson is the most endangered Democrat in the country. Is the big Republican money waiting on the sidelines for a man to throw his hat into the ring?

It seems like this would be a cheap media market

Not if you want to run ads on Twin Cities media.

[Gracile]

For those who think that McSally is a bad candidate
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1217064088766943232?s=20

Kelly still outraised her:

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1217113465036234753

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah McSally wasn't nearly as bad as most people think, the best way to think about it is that she lost a Trump +3 to a super moderate D by 2 points in 2018. Considering the national environment, that was a pretty good showing tbh

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1217114903766499328?s=20

That’s true

[ajc0918]

Yeah McSally wasn't nearly as bad as most people think, the best way to think about it is that she lost a Trump +3 to a super moderate D by 2 points in 2018. Considering the national environment, that was a pretty good showing tbh

She lost by 2.4% and the Green Party candidate took an additional 2.4%. Had she not have been on the ballot McSally would have lost by like 4%... I get your point but still.

[UncleSam]

Tbh I’m not convinced that each dollar matters as much as the next. Obviously it’s nice to have a COH advantage but how much do a few extra ad buys really get you? I’d much rather be ahead like 4 million to 1 million than 20 to 10, even though the raw gap in the latter two numbers is larger.

I wonder if anyone has done a study on this, or on the efficacy of spending in politics in general.

[wbrocks67]

Anthony Brindisi (NY-22) - raised “more than $900,000” with more than $1.8 million COH

Sean Parnell (PA-17) R challenging Conor Lamb - raised $265K, with more than $200,000 COH

Andy Kim (NJ-03) - raised $900K in Q4 with $2.2 million COH

Dems are blowing this out of the water. Not to mention, Parnell is supposed to be a major threat to Lamb. That # doesn't really say that.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yeah McSally wasn't nearly as bad as most people think, the best way to think about it is that she lost a Trump +3 to a super moderate D by 2 points in 2018. Considering the national environment, that was a pretty good showing tbh

Sinema may be a moderate, but McSally and the NRSC did their best to make her out to be the crazy SJW activist that a lot of people thought she still secretly was

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anthony Brindisi (NY-22) - raised “more than $900,000” with more than $1.8 million COH

Sean Parnell (PA-17) R challenging Conor Lamb - raised $265K, with more than $200,000 COH

Andy Kim (NJ-03) - raised $900K in Q4 with $2.2 million COH

Dems are blowing this out of the water. Not to mention, Parnell is supposed to be a major threat to Lamb. That # doesn't really say that.

Yeah, I believe Lamb raised about $550K.

[Nyvin]

Tbh I’m not convinced that each dollar matters as much as the next. Obviously it’s nice to have a COH advantage but how much do a few extra ad buys really get you? I’d much rather be ahead like 4 million to 1 million than 20 to 10, even though the raw gap in the latter two numbers is larger.

I wonder if anyone has done a study on this, or on the efficacy of spending in politics in general.

Money in a campaign does reach a saturation level at some point,  there was a study on it somewhere, but can't remember it.   

[Virginiá]

Tbh I’m not convinced that each dollar matters as much as the next. Obviously it’s nice to have a COH advantage but how much do a few extra ad buys really get you? I’d much rather be ahead like 4 million to 1 million than 20 to 10, even though the raw gap in the latter two numbers is larger.

I wonder if anyone has done a study on this, or on the efficacy of spending in politics in general.

Money in a campaign does reach a saturation level at some point,  there was a study on it somewhere, but can't remember it.   

Probably also depends on what the money is spent on. TV/radio ads are already pretty ineffective as it is, but whatever meager benefits they might provide has a limit when a state is saturated with ad buys.

A state like Arizona could benefit more from a massive investment (many millions) in GOTV/organizing. Especially given the demographic composition of the Democratic Party's base.

[Oryxslayer]

Tbh I’m not convinced that each dollar matters as much as the next. Obviously it’s nice to have a COH advantage but how much do a few extra ad buys really get you? I’d much rather be ahead like 4 million to 1 million than 20 to 10, even though the raw gap in the latter two numbers is larger.

I wonder if anyone has done a study on this, or on the efficacy of spending in politics in general.

Money in a campaign does reach a saturation level at some point,  there was a study on it somewhere, but can't remember it.    

There are a bunch of academic papers on this topic in electoral studies on jstor. The general conclusion is that mass money has only a marginal effect, and there is the assumption that both parties will have similar infrastructures and funds to spend on campaigns. Therefore, if one candidate has a lead in funding, it won't matter that much. However, there are two situations why money does have a serious impact, and both occur at the opposite ends of this supposed cash 'equilibrium.' If one side ignores fundraising or ignores one aspect of campaign spending (grassroots, ads, contacting, GOTV, etc) then there will be a notable difference in the outcomes in regards to that aspect of the campaign. The other option is if one party spends far more the the opposition; doubling or tripling the oppositions money even when the opposition is spending significant amounts. This has the effect of 'drowning out' the opponents, a la Bloomberg in the presidential race, and it converts into gains that are  more than marginal.

Of course, these studies often differ on the dividing line between marginal and significant, and even when the effects are significant they are  still underwhelming.

[wbrocks67]

Like, if Andy Kim of all people is even reaching nearly $1M a quarter even before 2020, it shows the Dems strength this cycle.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The AZ and NV Dems are stomping the GOP in fundraising.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1217528139523313664?s=20

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1217548098324451328?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone else feel its weird that its basically the FEC deadline, I think today, and we've barely gotten any reports?