2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 193165 times)
Splash
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« Reply #1400 on: October 05, 2020, 03:17:53 PM »
It looks like we'll get new CNN national poll numbers soon. I think their last poll had Biden +8 if I recall correctly.

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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1401 on: October 05, 2020, 03:24:30 PM »
Quote from: Splash on October 05, 2020, 03:17:53 PM
It looks like we'll get new CNN national poll numbers soon. I think their last poll had Biden +8 if I recall correctly.



Trump's approval was -12 then, so with a uniform swing we could see Biden+13
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1402 on: October 05, 2020, 03:25:33 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 05, 2020, 03:24:30 PM
Quote from: Splash on October 05, 2020, 03:17:53 PM
It looks like we'll get new CNN national poll numbers soon. I think their last poll had Biden +8 if I recall correctly.



Trump's approval was -12 then, so with a uniform swing we could see Biden+13

Trump was at -12.
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Splash
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« Reply #1403 on: October 05, 2020, 03:28:39 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 05, 2020, 03:25:33 PM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 05, 2020, 03:24:30 PM
Quote from: Splash on October 05, 2020, 03:17:53 PM
It looks like we'll get new CNN national poll numbers soon. I think their last poll had Biden +8 if I recall correctly.



Trump's approval was -12 then, so with a uniform swing we could see Biden+13

Trump was at -12.

Correct. I am going to guess that the new poll will show Biden +12.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1404 on: October 05, 2020, 03:38:27 PM »
Apparently the math based on the crosstabs is Biden 55 Trump 40.
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Horus
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« Reply #1405 on: October 05, 2020, 03:39:55 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on October 05, 2020, 03:38:27 PM
Apparently the math based on the crosstabs is Biden 55 Trump 40.

If that's the result I'll be ready to shift Wisconsin to Biden and predict a win for him for the very first time this cycle.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1406 on: October 05, 2020, 03:42:21 PM »
Quote from: Horus on October 05, 2020, 03:39:55 PM
Quote from: Holmes on October 05, 2020, 03:38:27 PM
Apparently the math based on the crosstabs is Biden 55 Trump 40.

If that's the result I'll be ready to shift Wisconsin to Biden and predict a win for him for the very first time this cycle.

Stay tuned for this historic moment in American history, folks.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1407 on: October 05, 2020, 03:44:03 PM »
The math was right.

edit: oh wait thought it was released.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #1408 on: October 05, 2020, 03:48:37 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on October 05, 2020, 03:38:27 PM
Apparently the math based on the crosstabs is Biden 55 Trump 40.

I'm pretty confident that Biden has around 10 point lead at the moment. The real question is whether or not that will be maintained for the rest of the month.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #1409 on: October 05, 2020, 04:05:11 PM »

Quote from: Horus on October 05, 2020, 03:39:55 PM
Quote from: Holmes on October 05, 2020, 03:38:27 PM
Apparently the math based on the crosstabs is Biden 55 Trump 40.

If that's the result I'll be ready to shift Wisconsin to Biden and predict a win for him for the very first time this cycle.

Trafalgar will release a Biden+1 poll in Wisconsin by Friday and you'll be right back to dooming about Biden's chances
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1410 on: October 05, 2020, 04:22:58 PM »
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1411 on: October 05, 2020, 04:28:47 PM »
Quote from: The Other Castro on October 05, 2020, 04:22:58 PM


MI: Biden+9
NC: Biden+2
FL: Biden+3
AZ: Biden+7
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redjohn
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« Reply #1412 on: October 05, 2020, 04:43:44 PM »
So tomorrow we're going to be getting our fair shore of polls. Marquette poll of WI comes out Wednesday, I believe. I expect Biden's state numbers to continue reflecting his growing national lead, it'll be nice to see more confirmation.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #1413 on: October 05, 2020, 05:20:16 PM »
Trump's numbers are tanking at the worst possible time.  Early voting is really picking up to like 1 million+ votes a day.
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Splash
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« Reply #1414 on: October 05, 2020, 09:20:53 PM »
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #1415 on: October 05, 2020, 09:25:05 PM »
Quote from: Splash on October 05, 2020, 09:20:53 PM


Biden +10
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1416 on: October 05, 2020, 09:25:44 PM »
Quote from: Splash on October 05, 2020, 09:20:53 PM


Their polls are done by the Glengariff Group. Rated a B/C pollster by 538. Was Biden 47 - Trump 42 on September 9.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1417 on: October 05, 2020, 09:27:07 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2020, 09:33:02 PM by LimoLiberal »
Tonight
Michigan (Detroit News) - Biden +5 in mid-September

Tomorrow
National (CNN) - Biden +8 in early September
North Carolina (Reuters/Ipsos) - tied in mid-September
Michigan (Reuters/Ipsos) - Biden +5 in mid-September
Pennsylvania (Monmouth) - Biden +3 in late August
Florida (Suffolk) - no previous poll

Wednesday
Wisconsin (Marquette) - Biden +4 in late August
Florida (Reuters/Ipsos) - tied in mid-September
Arizona (Reuters/Ipsos) - Biden +1 in mid-September
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1418 on: October 05, 2020, 09:29:10 PM »
I really wish Michigan had a gold standard pollster like Wisconsin has with Marquette or Iowa with Seltzer.
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Splash
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« Reply #1419 on: October 05, 2020, 09:31:52 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 05, 2020, 09:29:10 PM
I really wish Michigan had a gold standard pollster like Wisconsin has with Marquette or Iowa with Seltzer.

How dare you cast aspersions on EPIC-MRA, led by the infallible Bernie Porn! 
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Buzz
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« Reply #1420 on: October 06, 2020, 08:30:54 AM »
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1421 on: October 06, 2020, 08:33:41 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 06, 2020, 08:30:54 AM


OH - Trump +1-2
NV - Mmmm....Biden +4-5, but a hard +4-5. 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1422 on: October 06, 2020, 08:36:38 AM »
Hopefully their new NV poll has more decideds than last time (46-42)
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1423 on: October 06, 2020, 09:25:35 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 06, 2020, 08:30:54 AM


Ohio: Biden+1
Nevada: Biden+7
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Holmes
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« Reply #1424 on: October 06, 2020, 09:27:41 AM »
It wouldn’t make sense for them to have Nevada polling to the right of Arizona, but we’ll see.
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