2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 187206 times)
republican1993
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« Reply #1300 on: September 28, 2020, 09:56:19 AM »
Quote from: CellarDoor on September 28, 2020, 09:30:21 AM


Their last poll was +7 so assuming like +8/+9
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1301 on: September 28, 2020, 10:34:18 AM »
Quote from: republican1993 on September 28, 2020, 09:56:19 AM
Quote from: CellarDoor on September 28, 2020, 09:30:21 AM


Their last poll was +7 so assuming like +8/+9

I'll go the opposite and say +5/6. 

No reason.  I just like being a troublemaker. 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1302 on: September 28, 2020, 10:40:45 AM »
I wish Monmouth would just stop doing the "lower turnout" model. It ain't happening.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1303 on: September 28, 2020, 10:51:26 AM »
Quote from: Skye on September 28, 2020, 09:24:39 AM
Cohn is on fire:



When he says a couple, what else did they poll?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1304 on: September 28, 2020, 10:57:34 AM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on September 28, 2020, 10:51:26 AM
Quote from: Skye on September 28, 2020, 09:24:39 AM
Cohn is on fire:



When he says a couple, what else did they poll?

He hasn't said.
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republican1993
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« Reply #1305 on: September 28, 2020, 10:58:01 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on September 28, 2020, 10:34:18 AM
Quote from: republican1993 on September 28, 2020, 09:56:19 AM
Quote from: CellarDoor on September 28, 2020, 09:30:21 AM


Their last poll was +7 so assuming like +8/+9

I'll go the opposite and say +5/6. 

No reason.  I just like being a troublemaker. 

I hope so Wink
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1306 on: September 28, 2020, 11:02:17 AM »
Nate had said they will basically be continually polling until Election Day so it looks like we should be getting new ones from them every few days
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Buzz
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« Reply #1307 on: September 28, 2020, 12:15:16 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on September 28, 2020, 10:34:18 AM
Quote from: republican1993 on September 28, 2020, 09:56:19 AM
Quote from: CellarDoor on September 28, 2020, 09:30:21 AM


Their last poll was +7 so assuming like +8/+9

I'll go the opposite and say +5/6. 

No reason.  I just like being a troublemaker. 
You have now taken the reigns of gold standard predictor.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #1308 on: September 28, 2020, 01:06:19 PM »
 Monmouth released, Biden +5

It’s like we actually have a somewhat competitive race....
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1309 on: September 28, 2020, 01:17:32 PM »
Quote from: Donald Trump’s Toupée on September 28, 2020, 01:06:19 PM
Monmouth released, Biden +5

It’s like we actually have a somewhat competitive race....

I wish someone loved me as much as you love seeing outlier polls.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1310 on: September 28, 2020, 01:18:46 PM »
The race is D+6/7, nothing new here.
It was D+8/9 earlier, but that’s probably because it was before Trump’s base rallied around him.
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Splash
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« Reply #1311 on: September 28, 2020, 02:14:22 PM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1312 on: September 28, 2020, 02:22:24 PM »
Quote from: Splash on September 28, 2020, 02:14:22 PM


Might be getting a NYT/Siena one too:



Map looks like a decent Biden lead.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #1313 on: September 28, 2020, 02:43:27 PM »
Is the lightness/darkness of each dot reflective of how much weight that respondent was given?
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afleitch
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« Reply #1314 on: September 28, 2020, 02:47:49 PM »
That would be a stellar result for Biden in Northampton County.
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Splash
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« Reply #1315 on: September 28, 2020, 02:48:39 PM »
Looks like we'll get a Monmouth poll out of PA as well after the debate.

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Alaska2392
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« Reply #1316 on: September 28, 2020, 02:56:26 PM »
Quote from: tagimaucia on September 28, 2020, 02:43:27 PM
Is the lightness/darkness of each dot reflective of how much weight that respondent was given?

I believe it is just because there are so many poll respondents giving the same answer in that area (Biden vs. Trump?) mixed with population density that it just looks darker on the map.

If this map really is based on the results of the poll, it does look like a Democratic lead - at least to my eye.
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2016
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« Reply #1317 on: September 28, 2020, 03:03:29 PM »
Pennsylvania is going to decide this Election. It's the new Florida. Not surprised by all the PA Polls we are getting!.
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republican1993
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« Reply #1318 on: September 28, 2020, 03:28:12 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 28, 2020, 02:22:24 PM
Quote from: Splash on September 28, 2020, 02:14:22 PM


Might be getting a NYT/Siena one too:


Map looks like a decent Biden lead.

cant wait to see the PA + 10 or more poll from NY times
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kireev
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« Reply #1319 on: September 28, 2020, 03:28:54 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 03:37:22 PM by kireev »
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 28, 2020, 02:22:24 PM
Quote from: Splash on September 28, 2020, 02:14:22 PM


Might be getting a NYT/Siena one too:



Map looks like a decent Biden lead.

I counted the dots in Western PA. It's hard to say exactly because in Pittsburgh they are so blended together, but I think both Trump and Biden are in the 80s there. Maybe a very slight Trump's lead.  That's not a good result for Trump. He won this area by roughly 10 points in 2016.

Also Scranton Joe has a huge lead with just a handful of dots in Scranton Smiley
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #1320 on: September 28, 2020, 03:36:11 PM »
So who's gonna attempt to count the exact number of dots in each region or congressional district before ABC/WaPo releases the crosstabs?

At first I liked the idea of releasing the state map of respondents. Now it's already annoying
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1321 on: September 28, 2020, 03:56:23 PM »
↑ That PA map looks like Biden +7-9ish map.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #1322 on: September 28, 2020, 04:04:11 PM »
New Trafalgar, Wisconsin Biden +3 lol

If you seriously think you know what’s going to happen next month, you’re a political hack.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #1323 on: September 28, 2020, 04:05:21 PM »
New TIPP, PA Biden +5 lol

If you seriously think you know what’s going to happen next month, you’re a political hack.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1324 on: September 28, 2020, 04:11:02 PM »
Quote from: Donald Trump’s Toupée on September 28, 2020, 04:05:21 PM
New TIPP, PA Biden +5 lol

If you seriously think you know what’s going to happen next month, you’re a political hack.


Isn't +5 pretty much in line with the PA polling average right now, though?

It's +4.7 over at RCP, +4.9 at 538.  

Not exactly a wild and crazy Trumpy number from TIPP. 
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