2020 Poll Hype Thread

[redjohn]

Really interested to see the IA poll in an hour. Since we have such a lack of polling this cycle, and only a few weeks left, this pretty much sets the stage for the last sprint of campaigning in Iowa.

[redjohn]

I'd love to see data on how the results of IA/NH affect the results in NV. If Sanders wins IA & NH, does Biden get a bounce from voters who are nervous about Sanders in NV? Does Sanders get more of a boost from appearing as the front-runner?

[redjohn]

DMR will release a final Iowa poll on Feb. 1, two days before the Iowa caucus.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2020/01/23/final-iowa-poll-on-2020-democratic-presidential-candidates-to-be-released-feb-1/4552569002/

[redjohn]

DMR's a great pollster and their final poll will possibly be right on. At least we'll have a good idea of the race to set expectations accordingly.

[redjohn]

Any word on when we're getting a good poll of NV? We really don't know the state of the race there.

[redjohn]

https://twitter.com/mulawpoll/status/1233066599067856898?s=21

Wondering if they poll the state supreme court race that's also on April 7

[redjohn]

Nice. If I could pick states to get quality polling from, I'd want to see MO, KS, and UT.

[redjohn]

Worth noting that, ahead of the LA Times tracker polls, Biden's polling (his vote %) is the highest it's ever been in 538's polling average (51.3%).

[redjohn]

Any word on when we'll be getting a barrage of quality post-DNC polling?

[redjohn]

I'm trying to think of the worst poll combination that would cause the biggest freakout. Biden+2 in NV, Biden+1 in WI, Biden+2 in MN, and Biden+4 in NH?

[redjohn]

Really interested in the ME polls for POTUS and Senate. Hoping Gideon leads by high-single digits and Biden has a strong lead there.

[redjohn]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1307806038620504070

Also, DMR hasn't yet released the Presidential numbers from their IA poll. They probably do so late tonight or sometime tomorrow at the latest.

[redjohn]

I assume we should be getting DMR/Selzer prez toplines tonight then

Finally. They really milked that single poll for all they think it's worth...

[redjohn]

IA: Trump+4
TX: Trump+5
GA: Trump+3

Prove me wrong, please

[redjohn]

Begging people not to over-react to a close MN poll. All signs have pointed to the race there not being particularly close.

[redjohn]

I love when all the political pundits talk about the election and always bleat, “It’s all about turnout and which side shows up more.”

No sh_it

Yet when they point to the data strongly indicating Biden is currently favored to win, Trump supporters crawl out of their holes to cry out "fake news!!" and accuse them of being horribly biased. Not sure what Republicans want... a completely false narrative that Trump is favored despite being down in 14/17 states that were competitive in 2016?

[redjohn]

Monmouth released, Biden +5

It’s like we actually have a somewhat competitive race....

The Hill just joined Monmouth with Biden +5 in the General.

I’d be getting worried, Liberals. Deny the tightening polls until the very moment you can’t.

Biden leading by 9 in the state that will decide the election is so worrying for Democrats. Give it up, Trump got lucky in 2016 and he's going to lose.

[redjohn]

These past couple days have been atrocious for Trump polling-wise. Biden leading in GA, giant lead in PA, big leads in WI+MI. Biden leading NE-02 by an impressive margin. Trump needs something major to save his sinking ship.

[redjohn]

So tomorrow we're going to be getting our fair shore of polls. Marquette poll of WI comes out Wednesday, I believe. I expect Biden's state numbers to continue reflecting his growing national lead, it'll be nice to see more confirmation.

[redjohn]

If Biden leads by 5+ in OH, it'll be fair to say he's probably leading nationally by double-digits.

[redjohn]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1313492638553825282

I'm going to laugh out loud if they poll VA, NM, and OR or something.

[redjohn]

CNBC has Biden only +4 in PA

Yet there are polls showing PA I double digits.

I’m going to say it again: the wild swings and discrepancies shows no one actually knows. Makes zero sense.

No, it means Biden is leading but the margin isn't completely set in stone.

[redjohn]

Marquette nailed the 2018 races in WI (most notably the race for Governor, which other pollsters like NBC/Emerson had a strong D bias). Their polling in 2016 wasn't off, it just couldn't show the shift in the final couple of days to Trump among undecided voters. I'm going to be very interested in their final poll of the season, which they'll probably do at the very end of the month. If undecideds are low and Biden leads by mid-single digits, I'd be inclined to trust that margin.

[redjohn]

Biden's at his highest in RCP since Dec. 2019.

[redjohn]

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1314323851237634048

Last poll of theirs had a LV screen with Trump+2. I would guess this poll shows a tied Presidential race.